[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

@GlennLuk Avatar @GlennLuk Glenn

Glenn posts on X about china, geely, elements, byd the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and 7083 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

Engagements Line Chart

Mentions: XX #

Mentions Line Chart

Followers: XXXXXX #

Followers Line Chart

CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence #

Social category influence countries finance #4971 technology brands automotive brands stocks travel destinations

Social topic influence china #615, geely #98, elements #233, byd #481, countries #356, has been, chips #272, beijing #236, investment #2242, dominance #347

Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Here is the latest update on my analysis on the profitability of China's NEV sector. It updates for various 1H financial and volume updates by key carmakers like BYD Geely Xiaomi Xpeng and Leapmotor"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-30T18:02Z 26.3K followers, 15.7K engagements

"I hear over and over again how there are "100-150" Chinese EV firms and "only a handful are profitable". This is BS and highly misleading. The people who cite these figures can never seem to name even a fraction of these firms . . because they are mindless parrots who are unwilling or incapable of doing their own work to check out basic factual claims or provide highly relevant context"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.5K followers, 88.7K engagements

"The circularity here is making my head hurt. "The consensus is that it's exploiting its monopoly position but the deeper story is that its exporters are hurting badly so China has to go for broke" Source: Robin Brooks"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T12:43Z 26.5K followers, 15K engagements

"What I have an issue with is the subjective moral grandstanding in the first place vs. analyzing it from more objective strategic/geopolitical and economic analysis. China reached market dominance sectors like rare earths and renewables because it made a conscious choice to sustain invest in the relevant production factors to enable high-efficiency production including taking into account environmental costs over a long period of time"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:15Z 26.5K followers, 2452 engagements

"@zephyr_z9 Crypto fell like 10-15% so wipeouts mean many folks were 85-90% leveraged"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T21:20Z 26.5K followers, 1663 engagements

"By my count there are now at least X profitable EV makers selling in China by the end of this year. BYD Tesla (China only) Li Auto Seres Leapmotor Chery Chang'an and Geely Auto. On top of this you have CATL and Huawei which extract economics at the highly profitable battery and tech/software segments of the value chain respectively. These count because if these firms did not exist as independent entities those economics would simply flow to other carmakers. Xpeng Xiaomi SAIC GWM are also either already profitable on their EV operations or close"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.2K followers, 14K engagements

"When half of inference tokens are being generated for erotica the rationale that every GPU that goes to China means one less for America will start to sound rather uhhhh flaccid"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T20:02Z 26.5K followers, 7738 engagements

"The board is controlled by the controlling shareholder under normal circumstances and dividends/repatriation are perfunctory and non-controversial. The specific governance layer was added as a result Entity. If Entity existed back then Wingtech would have never agreed to send $3B to NXP to acquire the business. So this all goes back to Entity however much you want to use the fig leaf of legal language cover to obfuscate. It's certainly not going to convice Beijing"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:25Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"1) Once we start projecting out that far we are now talking long-enough timeframes where the known population based on consensus demographic trends will be able to utilize (derive economic value out of) such infrastructure. If some areas become gradually depopulated many decades into the future you simply shut down the infrastructure but they will have already served their purpose (being used by millions of the existing population for decades). An empty train station in XX years is not an example of poor asset allocation today if it had been used intensively for the full extent of its"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-08T11:34Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"So excluded from the U.S. asset number is the amount of Fortune 1000 market cap that can be directly attributed to operating income made off selling to the China market. So characterizing the U.S. as having disproportionate leverage on this vector is inaccurate. Both countries will be hurt rather proportionately if escalation gets to this point"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"There have been some other past threads on this but I now notice that Alex's posts have been deleted. Here is one from a year ago: Anyway I think Alex is making unreasonable outlier assumptions on one of the key support pillars for his hypothesis"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.5K followers, 1443 engagements

"This describes rare earths processing before China really took it over and improved on it. The allegations on environmental and labor rights abuses in Chinas rare earths industry all rely on severely dated info revealing an implicit assumption of stasis in what has actually (like the rest of China) been a very dynamic industry. Theres little real understanding of Chinas rare earths industry today. Its like commenting on Chinas EV sector by judging it based on its car industry XX years ago"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T10:38Z 26.2K followers, 4103 engagements

"This is true. China's rare earths supply can be replaced. But you can say the same thing about advanced chipmaking. Thus more relevant question is: Will the U.S. be able to secure rare earths processing capacity before China develops self-sufficiency in advanced node chips"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-04-24T14:45Z 26.4K followers, 149.5K engagements

"@yishan Between ethanol and biofuel its clear that these are just fit leaf check marks to meet poorly designed environmental mandates. Its actually easier to just synthesize clean fuel now but some people seem to go out of their way to avoid helping the environment"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T11:28Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"That was quick. Beijing responds within XX hours restricting exports of its chips fabricated in its China fabs. This is likely to draw in more countries (Germany Philippines Malysia UK) as its operations span the globe"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T11:47Z 26.5K followers, 6961 engagements

"All while its principal antagonist continues to: (i) under-estimate China's ability to move forward and push through often-painful structural reforms (corruption real estate catching up in tech vulnerabilities) (ii) misdiagnose the key culprits of its eroding geopolitical advantage and (iii) prioritize talk over execution when it comes to known vulnerabilities in areas like rare earths gallium/germanium tungsten renewables etc"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T16:00Z 26.5K followers, 3761 engagements

"I'd once again encourage folks to listen to this podcast from @twittwoods who has been studying the development of China's rare earths industry and was really the first one to clue me into just how much investment has bene made to raise environmental standards especially since the mid-2010s"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T15:35Z 26.5K followers, 6468 engagements

"The "overinvestment" thesis carries a rather elitist conceit: that one billion Chinese people at this current standard of living (or below) don't deserve or should delay full development. You simply cannot move beyond this standard without significant gross capital formation i.e. meaning vast quantities of concrete steel energy and construction investment"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-29T10:13Z 26.5K followers, 115K engagements

"If they are unable to obtain a waiver they will have to then "design in" an alternative chip (e.g. from Broadcom) for their products (again often mature products) to be able to continue selling. Given the enhanced safety requirements of automotive/industrial/power the effort here will be similar to redesigning the product from scratch"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:14Z 26.5K followers, 1061 engagements

"No. The reason why it has a monopoly today is because China has: (i) made significant technology and process advances that effectively isolate/mitigate the effects of the environmental damage concentrated in the up/midstream mining and separation phases on society and (ii) invested in human capital / specialized manufacturing equipment and optimized steps in the downstream processing stages including deep integration with end-product manufacturing (e.g. permanent magnets which make up the bulk of use cases by economic value) Whether simply ignorance or worse inability to recognize e.g. by"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T15:28Z 26.5K followers, 47.8K engagements

"@stevehou0 Because XXX% tariffs were already used once. It lost effect after it was repealed the first time. The fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me concept"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-11T17:32Z 26.2K followers, 2785 engagements

"@PAstynome Yep - clear rise in alternative non-regulated markets (crypto/bitcoin) and gambling (fanduel/draftkings)"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T11:43Z 26.5K followers, 3028 engagements

"Maybe just me but Jensen/nVidia seem to have shifted priorities from edge compute to datacenter in the wake of the massive hyperscaler buildout spurred on mainly by GenAI. This makes sense commercially and I think the working thesis here is that R&D investment in datacenter-focused solutions will converge/spillover/benefit edge use cases as well. At the same time it is also pretty clear China is pulling ahead in the two use cases that are the best candidates for edge AI humanoid robots and self-driving cars and we have to assume that recent domestic industry shift to software/hardware"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-09T17:00Z 26.3K followers, 16.1K engagements

"The difference is even larger using capital stock estimates provided by the IMF (Model 2). IMF uses even more basic depreciation assumptions for its capital stock estimates assuming flat rates depending on the developmental category of an economy"
X Link @GlennLuk 2024-01-30T04:28Z 26.4K followers, 3123 engagements

"I think that's what it's doing with its chip program. For China Taiwan was never about its chip prowess"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T13:40Z 26.4K followers, XXX engagements

"Chinese-made EVs have even higher market share in Thailand Indonesia and Brazil than China mainly driven by mass-market models. Teslas by far the largest non-Chinese EV sold in China are priced at a premium and not as affordable for middle class buyers in developing markets"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-08T11:42Z 26.5K followers, 25.9K engagements

"Note that I am by no means saying that China is on the side of the moral right here. Indeed I have been quite clear that the main driver of embracing a clean environment agenda isn't morals but quality of life and strategic imperatives"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:08Z 26.5K followers, 1796 engagements

"1) Interesting how many folks who were pikachuface.jpg shocked at the Chinese rare earths restrictions after having ignored the 9/29 BIS modifications framing them first as "escalatory" and later as an "overreach" . are now framing this or not framing it at all e.g. mostly ignoring it as if it should be perceived as nbd non-event. 2) Very high likelihood that China will reciprocate prior to APEC; including simply cancelling the planned Xi-Trump meeting. This was eminently foreseeable on the escalation pathway"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T17:14Z 26.5K followers, 49K engagements

"Now the narrative has completely flipped to a narrative where China is now simultaenously and pro-actively (i) restricting supply of critical materials and (ii) rejecting imports of American-derived high-tech which had been seen as key chokepoints"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T15:51Z 26.5K followers, 1578 engagements

"Some emerging 2025 themes in China's EV sector: BYD struggling to maintain growth momentum. This appears to be related to rising competition from its direct competitors in the "mass market affordable" class particularly Geely Leapmotor and Chery. Li Auto which has been one of the early success stories is struggling due to new competition entering their core MPV space. In the premium segment Xpeng and Xiaomi have the most momentum battling not only with Tesla but Huawei's HIMA lineup of SOE car brands"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-02T13:59Z 26.4K followers, 43.5K engagements

"As an incumbent Geely also sells traditional ICE vehicles. Some have used this to exclude Geely as a "profitable EV maker". But EVs now make up 3/5ths of its sales. At this point it is more an EV than ICE company so it should count as one"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-09-27T12:21Z 26.2K followers, 11.8K engagements

"This is compelling evidence that getting depreciation rates correct (and recognizing changing capital mix) has a major impact on capital stock TFP and the Solow growth accounting model"
X Link @GlennLuk 2024-01-30T04:28Z 26.4K followers, 8164 engagements

"Beijing has long understood that the fundamental source of its leverage here was "producer power" that centers on specialized manufacturing equipment process knowledge and human capital"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T15:53Z 26.5K followers, 1959 engagements

"@zephyr_z9 Vast majority of this will be in the form of debt/lending. Also likely over 10+ year period"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T16:04Z 26.4K followers, XXX engagements

"@Marxistcham I dont think its any different from others. TSMC was notable for always keeping the latest gen technology at home and opening up plants outside Taiwan that are 2-4 generations behind. Audi did not use their most powerful engines for the China market"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T11:04Z 26.5K followers, XX engagements

"Bringing up ethane and high purity quartz is revealingly grasping at straws. Advanced SME was the trump card and it was played early. China is like Toby in The Office calling Michael who had bluffed and gone all-in on the first hand"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T10:59Z 26.5K followers, 11.3K engagements

"Corruption is bad but there are degrees. Its one thing to do it in real estate involving transfer of state/public assets (and natural rent-seeking elements); quite another for an Internet / tech company. Miles Kwok and Desmond Shum types involved in real estate was bad enough but imagine if they were involved in non-rent-seeking industries disaster from a societal perspective"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T13:48Z 26.5K followers, 42.5K engagements

"@benbawan This is going to cause major major headaches for their automotive and industrial customers that sell into the U.S. or markets potentially subject to the Entity List rules as they are no longer going to be able to purchase from Wingtech/Nexperia China without a waiver"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:07Z 26.5K followers, 1277 engagements

"Ratio'ed in own feed"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T17:30Z 26.5K followers, 6564 engagements

"We don't need Chinese idioms to pierce the mystical veil. China's really not that hard to read on the trade/tech war: It laid out its position very clearly and directly in April and its reactions/responses have been highly predictable"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:49Z 26.5K followers, 28.2K engagements

"Addendum: People who cite high-purity quartz as a significant source of geopolitical leverage vis a vis rare earths must have failed chemistry. Purifying quartz is OoM less complex process vs. isolating all the various rare earth elements from ore"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T14:25Z 26.5K followers, 1710 engagements

"This illustrates just how much income U.S. MNCs are making in China enough to offset the bilateral trade deficit"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.5K followers, 1192 engagements

"If it is later revealed to be true the latter would be akin to Japanese militarists sabotaging the efforts of civilian administrators to moderate imperial ambitions by assassinating dove-ish officials in the lead-up to WW2 (re: assassination of Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi)"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-11T11:18Z 26.5K followers, 6624 engagements

"To boot this is the right solution for humanity. Nations competing to out-innovate each other instead of competing to out-bomb one another. That's how humanity moves forward"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T13:22Z 26.5K followers, 1605 engagements

"1. Funds would likely have been transferred out the normal way if the special layer of corporate governance to Nexperia NV had not not been put into effect ex post facto due to Entity Rules. X. There is no normal circumstance where companies are subject to nationalization/takeover due to "inappropriate inter-company fund transfers." That is extremely disproportionate action that only makes sense because of the geopolitical context"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T13:31Z 26.5K followers, XXX engagements

"Addendum: This violently ends the short-lived fantasy that there was no linkage between the 9/29 BIS entity rule modification and the Nexperia takeover by explicitly linking the two"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T11:34Z 26.5K followers, 6607 engagements

"As so much distortion in trade data caused by factoryless manufacturing is based on how value is attributed in trade we need to really understand how Customs departments in every WTO country account for cross-border trade"
X Link @GlennLuk 2024-10-31T03:47Z 26.3K followers, 2874 engagements

"Moreover it has gained even more confidence in greater years as it has proven to itself that it can: (i) wield industrial policy effectively to catchup in erstwhile "chokepoint" technologies like chips and aviation; (ii) keep pace on downstream derivative strategic initiatives like AI nucelar pharma/biotech and (iii) pull ahead in emerging technologies like EVs drones/robotics renewables grid/electrification etc"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-12T15:56Z 26.4K followers, 2866 engagements

"Excellent reporting yet article has zero mention of the 9/29 BIS ruling which the Chinese response clearly mirrors. The real news here is the possibility of elements within the Trump administration whose direct objective is to sabotage the talks. Similar vibes to rogue arrest by lower-level underlings of the Huawei CFO in December 2018 that kicked off the tech war in the first place"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-11T03:32Z 26.5K followers, 63K engagements

"2 American MNCs make more money off China than vice versa Alex brings up the difference in net asset balance ($2.5T for China $500B for the US) but I would argue that it's not asset values that matter but the lost income on those assets. The reality is that China makes a relatively paltry return on its US-exposed asset portfolio because it is mainly locked up in low-return USTs and equities while U.S. investment in China is locked into high-return FDI"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T13:43Z 26.5K followers, 1061 engagements

"Note that Wuxi is a prosperous city in Jiangsu featuring some of the highest levels of quality of life in China. Safe bet the locals care about pollution. If the competitive advantage of this ultrapure dysprosium refinery were truly ability to tolerate pollution there are so many other places in the country in less prosperous sparsely populated areas that it could have been located. No the reason it was located there was clustering of relevant human capital and supply chain"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-13T11:56Z 26.5K followers, 5913 engagements

"To get to the same point the U.S. and its allies needs to move on from moral grandstanding and make a similar sustained effort investing in real things like human capital tech/IP and process development to catch up to China in these areas. In other words it's not about China; it's about looking inwards and asking ourselves why we have thus far been unsuccessful in making significant catch-up headway in these critical sectors"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T16:15Z 26.5K followers, 2360 engagements

"Sacrilege. I remember being able to get from HKIA to my office in Cheung Kong Center walking either (i) indoors or (ii) under covered walkways. It's "hard" and "tiring" for other reasons but the sheer challenge of making a city work with that level of concentrated urban density in rugged mountainous topography doesn't work without intense focus on the pedestrian"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-14T17:09Z 26.5K followers, 3790 engagements

""Measured in terms of primary energy" This was obvious when you saw coal XX PWh (total power demand in China is XX PWh). These figures include heat loss from combustion. It's like accounting for heat loss from fusion energy produced at source (the sun) for solar/wind power"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-09T11:00Z 26.4K followers, 21.5K engagements

"What other precedents / examples of companies in The Netherlands that were seized/nationalized solely on the basis of "improper transfers" and with this timetable To imply/say this is a normal everyday thing that would have happened without the geopolitical backdrop is disingenous / obfuscation"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T15:34Z 26.5K followers, XX engagements

"Another signal/indicator that Chinese fabs/foundries are gaining confidence in viability of domestic lithography solutions as replacements for the remaining (more mature) product lines ASML is allowed to sell to China"
X Link @GlennLuk 2025-10-15T14:21Z 26.5K followers, 9467 engagements