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@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett Garrett Arms

Garrett Arms posts on X about aca, eps, cnc, $bwyl the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXX #

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Mentions: XX #

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Followers: XXXXX #

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CreatorRank: XXXXXXXXX #

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Social Influence #

Social category influence finance stocks

Social topic influence aca, eps #312, cnc #297, $bwyl, $cnc #36, marketplace, disc, $800b, $150b, $860b

Top assets mentioned Centene Corp (CNC) Green Brick Partners, Inc (GRBK)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"UK homebuilder Bellway $BWY.L is a long. Setup not dissimilar to US builder peers X year agoconcerns over interest rate cycle yet significant underbuild dynamics favor longer-term secular story. Multiyear low valuation (30% disc to TBV/sub 6x EPS) while US players on fire. 1/n"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2023-06-21 17:09:41 UTC 4286 followers, 22.8K engagements

"ACA precedent: in the early years (20152017) there was a similar mispricing event when insurers misjudged utilization patterns of the newly insured population. Many HMOs exited the exchange after losses--insurer participation per state declined from X in 2015 to XXX in 2018"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:42 UTC 4291 followers, 1279 engagements

"Repricing of ACA plans for XX has already started. Among XX early filings prem. increases are 20%+ w/ 1/2 inc. tied to worsening risk pools not rising medical costs. Requests received after recent data release(CO & AR) in high XX% range up from high-teens in earlier states"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:40 UTC 4291 followers, 1620 engagements

"Cuts are in there. You already lost +10% of enrollment in 2024/2025 & gross dollars were still up. As it stands announced Medicaid & CHIP provisions equate to $860B in gross cuts over XX years (offset w/ +$150B on ACA). But this was off existing baseline which included +$800B of spending increase. Add that w/CBO assumption that states will replace half of reduced federal funds (we will see) & the fact that Congress has a long history of postponing healthcare payment reductions that have been passed legally (plus the incremental outsourcing of Medicaid to managed care) & Ill take the over on"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-23 13:38:26 UTC 4286 followers, XXX engagements

"While the near-term pain is real (but cyclical) $CNC is a coiled spring at less than $XX. A Medicaid MLR reset gets 2027 EPS to $6+ (4.4x current price) w/ACA earnings still cut 50%. At 9x 2027 EPS (a 3-turn discount to history) CNC is worth $XX or XXX% upside"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:48 UTC 4291 followers, 3361 engagements

"Medicaid is CNC's largest operating segment: 13M members $80B+ rev. with 20+% market share. Here COVID suspension of eligibility checks ended in 2023--this drove up acuity + costs in 24but unwinding process partially thru(enrollment surged from 64m to a peak of 87m in 2023)"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:44 UTC 4286 followers, 1306 engagements

"Offsetting potential enrollment headwinds from expiration of prem. tax creditsthe adoption of ICHRA arrangements by employers could expand ACA market to 100+ million lives creating a much larger marketplace"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:42 UTC 4290 followers, 1395 engagements

"In 2025 CMS began taking steps to curb fraud: income verifications eligibility audits residency checks & tighter controls on broker behavior. Changes have had an early effect on disproportionately screening out low-utilization members leading to a deterioration in risk pool"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:40 UTC 4286 followers, 1599 engagements

"As capacity left industry the remain insurers substantially repriced plans. Medical loss ratios dropped 2000 bps over X yrs & in 2018 the exchange biz printed record profits. Molina Aetna & Humana all doubled or tripled off lows"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:43 UTC 4290 followers, 1324 engagements

"Centene $CNC is a long @ $XX w/ a $13.7B mkt cap. Largest player in both Medicaid & ACA marketplace sitting at a historic valuation low. Several short-term headwinds but earnings should reset over next 2yrs. Well under 5x normalized EPS 1/N"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:37 UTC 4291 followers, 33.1K engagements

"Longer term CNC is asset-light (17% ROE over last 10yrs) efficient (cost structure 200bps below industry avg) indispensable and has successfully managed reg. upheavals under both Dem. & Rep. leadership"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 19:19:47 UTC 4286 followers, 1212 engagements

"Stock offers much better skew than US builders. View asymmetry as similar to US builders 1yr ago-pitched $GRBK at ValueX Vail last June: 1yr +180%. $BWY.L worth at least 1.3x book & 9-10x earnings which would be +80% from here and in range with where co has historically traded"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2023-06-21 17:09:47 UTC 4281 followers, 1132 engagements

"@siyul @Aureliusltd28 @BankingIp Im still confused on what exactly these guys have accomplished besides having their stock price increase. Still the worst run major on a bunch of operating metrics. Going to hold my applause for Jane & co until they run a XX% ROE. Nice stock pick tho"
@ArmsGarrett Avatar @ArmsGarrett on X 2025-07-22 20:57:06 UTC 4269 followers, 1145 engagements