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@orrdavid "@TheTranscript_ Scam artists I hope they wind up in prison when this all ends. $OWL"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-06T02:31Z 21K followers, 2956 engagements

"This meme has been around a long time. The problem: Fundamentals always win for a basket of XX stocks in different industries over 3-5 years. Always. It's is just an excuse for bad investing"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-12T01:57Z 21K followers, 40.3K engagements

""In 2001 she joined Hotel Shilla a member company of the Samsung Group specializing in travel retail and the hospitality business. She has been the president and CEO of Hotel Shilla since December 2010." When nepotism goes wrong"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-08-29T09:38Z 21K followers, 1390 engagements

"Hikari Tsushin $9435 borrows in USD at X% for XX years taking advantage of the easy US debt market in the USA right now. Also worth contrasting this with the no bid in private credit broadly despite such narrow spreads"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-11T03:43Z 21K followers, 5854 engagements

"Tamaki wants even looser fiscal policy than Takaichi particularly by "temporarily" lowering the consumption tax to X% from 10%. It makes sense that this is happening. Younger people are finally getting enough voting power and they don't want crippling taxes anymore"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-10T11:55Z 21K followers, 6243 engagements

"Below are the financials of Relo Group $8876 XX% return on capital trades for 11x earnings clean balance sheet. I found Hikari Tsushin $9435 because as I searched for cheap Japanese stocks like this one I kept seeing Hikari owning cheap stuff like this"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-04T12:32Z 21K followers, 10.7K engagements

"Even Buffett was doing this. He was also short selling broad baskets of stocks in the partnership days. And I'm guessing there were other things he wasn't even talking about all these years because why crowd an edge"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-06T12:17Z 21K followers, 3665 engagements

"I've been studying the true cost of clothes. Very rough numbers: Shirts Decent $XX polo last XX machine washes $1/wear. Lululemon $XX polo last XX machine washes $1.6/wear. Zegna $XXX polo lasts XX professional hand washes (machine is no longer economical) $12/wear including laundry cost Loro Piana $1200 polo last XX professional hand washes (machine is no longer economical) $18/wear including laundry cost. Per year that is $XXX $XXX $4380 and $6570. Shirts are by far the most expensive since they have to be washed every wear. Pants Decent $XX pants last XX machine washes $1.6/wash. Washed"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-08-19T00:33Z 21K followers, 113.1K engagements

"I have been writing - very gradually - an outline of the book that I will eventually write on short selling. This is the outline of the first chapter"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T13:00Z 21K followers, 7445 engagements

"$WISE.L probably does XXX million net income in 2024 vs X billion market cap. Seems cheap. Counter argument is volume per customer is a drag. Counter argument to that is Europe is not doing well right now yet they're still growing. What happens when Europe's economy turns"
X Link @orrdavid 2024-05-14T11:17Z 21K followers, 10.9K engagements

"Message I just sent to a short selling friend: "In a bad drawdown your best course is usually to just de-gross cut risk and wait for the shitty market environment to pass. See the stocks and factors that are most killing you and especially get away from those ones for now. You can create a watchlist of everything you quit and rejoin later on (after at least XX days for tax reasons usually). Often you will do this at the very worst moment of course. But still you need to do this anyway to control the drawdown. What puts you out of business isn't a medium drawdown and a pause. It's a medium"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-14T01:56Z 21K followers, 6850 engagements

"$9435 Hikari Tsushin's business model is simple and great: * Have some of the best salesmen in Japan sell company products and reward them handsomely on their performance * Acquire more companies that benefit from having these best salesmen sell their products * Find the best underused talent from those acquired often stagnant companies and cycle them into the core business * Repeat over and over. What's the growth runway on that model"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-05-15T06:27Z 21K followers, 6173 engagements

"I made a website for my hedge fund. My motivation for running this website is to connect with up and coming truly exceptional portfolio managers. Please visit for more details:"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-06T14:14Z 21K followers, 32.8K engagements

"Thought experiment on a net/net valuations: A boring predictable company with no headwinds or tailwinds has flat earnings. It has no debt. It pays out all of its earnings every year. For years it trades for 12x earnings. One day new management takes over and they claim to be worried about the future of their industry even when it's not justified. They stop paying out shareholders every year and have an explicit policy of simply allowing cash to pile up which earns some small interest. How bad is this news what is a new reasonable multiple for the company The key question about this company"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-26T13:00Z 21K followers, 8503 engagements

"Three left wing views I have: X. Unrealized gains should be taxed - with plenty of very large exemptions for founders early employees etc. X. Healthcare should be universal and almost entirely paid for by the state. The only payment people should have to make is to discourage waste. The state should also aggressively negotiate prices down on behalf of the people. (This part isn't really left wing but also: deregulate healthcare / open to competition). X. Immigration should be almost entirely open in the USA though we do need to still enforce borders rigidly and thoroughly. The test should be"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-12T23:59Z 21K followers, 17.8K engagements

"Another message I sent to a group of short selling friends: "These are the narrow career ruining moments for short sellers. Who cares if you don't win the maximum during them.""
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-14T01:58Z 21K followers, 2713 engagements

"Another holding of $9435: 13x earnings XX% of the market cap in cash No debt XX% return on capital Hikari Tsushin also believes in stepping over X foot hurdles . only with far more favorable terms on their debt than I can get"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-11T09:40Z 21K followers, 17.8K engagements

"@JackFarley96 It's a word salad and they're playing with trillions"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T02:14Z 21K followers, XXX engagements

"I have a XX% position in Hikari Tsushin $9435 today but I swear it's not big enough. If this was a US stock - so that I understood it better - I'd probably be at 20%"
X Link @orrdavid 2024-08-24T23:26Z 21K followers, 48.7K engagements

"I'd point out too that Hikari Tsushin's $9435 model is very similar - cheap stocks and work outs. And they even have the value adding portion by using their own elite marketing staff for these businesses"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-06T12:18Z 21K followers, 3057 engagements

"$QAI a "multi-strategy" ETF has zero real return in ten years and has a XX% drawdown. $XXX million AUM somehow. People must be hungry for alt publicly listed investments"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-07-04T08:39Z 21K followers, 3382 engagements

"The true backbone of Graham's strategy: Buy less liquid value traps that don't have big downside risk. When they spike someday sell to some bag holder. The market got more competitive. Unsurprisingly that no longer works"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-12T03:05Z 21K followers, 16.3K engagements

"The key point of a brand is easily communicating trust"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-10T01:43Z 21K followers, 2050 engagements

"They are using swaps to do this. I'm not able to use swaps in an ETF vehicle (at least that I can launch today) because the regulators make it too expensive. Only conmen have the scale needed to use swaps in an ETF structure. Long term I will solve this for myself though"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T01:13Z 21K followers, 9744 engagements

"A poetic ending of this cycle's bull market would be: A 3x bear ETF $DOWN launches and becomes a meme gathering $XXX billion AUM. It'd be the funniest ending because retail investors would have won in the end"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-04T11:55Z 21K followers, 2418 engagements

"Also not being able to short individual stocks in an ETF this year was a positive lucky development. I've had lots of those kinds of lucky breaks in investing. Another lucky break was my hedge fund launching right after Jan 2021. But man will that be a huge negative soon"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T01:21Z 21K followers, 2394 engagements

"I was short $SILJ at $XX this year like an idiot. My thesis was that BTC was a new substitute for gold thus silver should do terrible. But this terrible short was fine because I quit after it went up enough. It was fine because I did not stay wrong"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-13T14:13Z 21K followers, 4363 engagements

"$9435 Hikari Tsushin summary. Wonder how much AI can even improve from here. this is excellent"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-05-15T05:40Z 21K followers, 6592 engagements

"Expanding on The Scout Mindset: I think it's crucial to block out partisan tribespeople in investing. They will cloud your thinking and distract you"
X Link @orrdavid 2024-03-16T01:57Z 21K followers, 4272 engagements

"Results of my hedge fund partition MTD. I lost another -XXX% yesterday too. So even though the worst stocks in the market are going straight up most of this period I still had several winning days in a row. Not sure what to make of it by itself. I have this theory though that once you have enough daily sample sizes from unique alpha sources (ie more PMs) the data might create a huge edge with a quant strategy and that this strategy will be simple"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T02:44Z 21K followers, 6010 engagements

"Stay safe out there short sellers. This is a harder environment than even Jan 2021 even though breadth hasn't gone as wild. Unclear if breadth will go as wide this time since the end of a bull run behavior is usually more concentrated. When this momentum in shorted stocks break there will likely be a twilight period for months. This is a pattern Soros pointed out. If that's right there is no rush to being a huge hero and call the top. On the other hand modern markets are so much more competitive that a fast collapse wouldn't be surprising. Maybe that's why this move is even getting so"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-14T23:42Z 21K followers, 28.6K engagements

"For years I liked every single product I bought at Lululemon. I trusted that I'd like everything I bought without even having to try it all on - which was important because I hate shopping. Very recently I bought X things and hated 4/5 including what used to be a staple from them. And meanwhile the staple fundamental T-shirts start looking faded after not that many washes which is completely different from the past. It's crazy how fast $LULU lost me as a customer and just how fast they let product quality slip"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-09T14:05Z 21K followers, 36.7K engagements

"It's also very odd that the 6th was a big winning day and not Friday which was down a lot (6th was huge alpha Friday was negative alpha). Lots of strange things are going on under the surface than normal"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T02:46Z 21K followers, 3384 engagements

"Hikari Tsushin $9435 is run by an allocator that doubles book/share every 3-4 years. Runs XXX% leverage in a ZIRP environment. Website gives Teledyne or Berkshire vibes. Trades for 1.5x book / 10x earnings"
X Link @orrdavid 2024-06-16T03:15Z 21K followers, 99.6K engagements

"Importantly Hikari Tsushin does not charge hedge fund like fees for making these investments. That's the killer subtle variable that steals all/most of the value away from shareholders of permanent capital vehicles. Just like @davidein's $GLRE scam"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-09-11T09:43Z 21K followers, 3103 engagements

"ALL of the pain on shorts from the last X weeks came from a very small number of outliers total garbage stocks that I was short because I had a catalyst. It's certainly (a word I never use in investing) not a coincidence that every single one of them blew up in my face"
X Link @orrdavid 2025-10-15T02:53Z 21K followers, 2830 engagements