@orrdavid Avatar @orrdavid David Orr

David Orr posts on X about in the, stocks, $9435t, ai the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance 31.58% countries 9.65% stocks 5.26% currencies 3.51% cryptocurrencies 2.63% fashion brands 1.75% luxury brands 1.75% celebrities 0.88% travel destinations 0.88% technology brands 0.88%

Social topic influence in the 12.28%, stocks #3911, $9435t #3, ai 6.14%, money 5.26%, the first 5.26%, bull #1490, fund #538, japan 5.26%, strong 4.39%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ron284ron @sowingalphaseed @finphysnerd @shinskysam @valuedrift @mikefritzell @dabao @altaycapital @invertedfragil1 @casinocapital @ethanrkho @cuteriiholic @doggydog1208 @mastersinvest @irbezek @tintincapital @tomicki @schaal @albrt23 @dream_s14

Top assets mentioned Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Stryker Corporation (SYK) QuantixAI (QAI) Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Downism (DOWN)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"I just went through all of these public equities owned by Hikari Tsushin $9435. In the second image many of the companies they own a large % of are tiny. Lots of this stuff has a strong balance sheet. Just consistently profitable stuff some with improving earnings"
X Link 2024-08-21T03:09Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Below are the financials of Relo Group $8876 20% return on capital trades for 11x earnings clean balance sheet. I found Hikari Tsushin $9435 because as I searched for cheap Japanese stocks like this one I kept seeing Hikari owning cheap stuff like this. Hikari Tsushin K.K. increasing Relo Group Inc. $8876.T from 7.83% 7.94% Hikari Tsushin K.K. increasing Relo Group Inc. $8876.T from 7.83% 7.94%"
X Link 2025-09-04T12:32Z 31.4K followers, 11.2K engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed I think my example is too generous even too Year [--] you win 15%. Pay the 36% tax and you won just 9.6%. So that's your new compounding base so my 64% at the end of the decade is way too high. Too lazy to do the math but say it's 50% after a decade. so now you lost money"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:30Z 31.4K followers, [---] engagements

"I had someone translate the first three chapters. What a strong opener: Just got "My Investment Techniques: Who Will the Market Smile On" by Tatsuro Kiyohara--arguably one of Japan's most successful investors amassing [--] billion yen in personal wealth through his investing career. Hopefully I'll learn something that'll help me stop bleeding money. https://t.co/6ZmIzVqEWr Just got "My Investment Techniques: Who Will the Market Smile On" by Tatsuro Kiyohara--arguably one of Japan's most successful investors amassing [--] billion yen in personal wealth through his investing career. Hopefully I'll"
X Link 2024-03-23T16:10Z 31.3K followers, 168.8K engagements

"$WISE.L probably does [---] million net income in [----] vs [--] billion market cap. Seems cheap. Counter argument is volume per customer is a drag. Counter argument to that is Europe is not doing well right now yet they're still growing. What happens when Europe's economy turns"
X Link 2024-05-14T11:17Z 31.3K followers, 11.3K engagements

"@Chris31712750 Yep he's acting like a Berkshire that way too. A couple friends have wanted to buy shares but can't given Japan's [---] share minimum. Kinda sucks"
X Link 2024-06-17T14:13Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"I studied stocks for [--] hours straight yesterday got [--] hours of sleep and just woke up to study them for another [--] hours today. If you don't genuinely love doing this all the time it sure seems hard to compete"
X Link 2024-08-10T09:50Z 31.3K followers, 60.7K engagements

"Hikari Tsushin $9435 reports net "unusual" gains year after year. I don't think I've ever seen a company do that before. It's like the complete inversion of most shitcos"
X Link 2024-08-23T22:41Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Stryker Corp $SYK is a great example of a "quality" bubble stock. At least most likely. Maybe this one I'm missing something but there are so many stocks like this today with a lazy investor base that keeps winning from multiple expansion. This one seems interesting since the products are so unremarkable the stock could seriously drop which is a lot more interesting than other quality factor stocks. Since [----] $SYK's operating cash flow tripled which is only an 8% CAGR. Worse they had to reinvest more than the cash that they generated to achieve this growth and ROCE dropped from 22% down to"
X Link 2025-02-01T10:04Z 31.3K followers, 12.6K engagements

"$2222 Finally tried the product. It's really tasty. They try many other brands too. Could see this one appealing to both western and Asian tastes. Presentation at the shop is perfectly done too. I've been long thinking to buy more"
X Link 2025-02-24T04:28Z 31.2K followers, 12.3K engagements

"$QAI a "multi-strategy" ETF has zero real return in ten years and has a 14% drawdown. $700 million AUM somehow. People must be hungry for alt publicly listed investments"
X Link 2025-07-04T08:39Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Interview with HIkari Tsushin's CEO by @Jake___Barfield: https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Y5rRs1IK6Zo https://www.youtube.com/watchv=Y5rRs1IK6Zo"
X Link 2025-07-13T04:29Z 31.2K followers, 11.7K engagements

"Subtle part of the Kelly Criterion: Sharpe goes up as fraction of Kelly goes down especially from .5 - [--] Kelly. You should want a margin of safety on never going above .5. Which is an argument to aim for most like .25 Kelly"
X Link 2025-07-31T13:58Z 31.2K followers, 51.1K engagements

"The $ORR ETF just reached $100 million AUM with an average daily volume over $1 million. It's surreal. Thanks for your support early on and trusting me with so much money. For more information about Militia Long/Short Equity ETF please visit https://militiaetf.com/ https://militiaetf.com/"
X Link 2025-08-03T14:00Z 31K followers, 23K engagements

"I've been studying the true cost of clothes. Very rough numbers: Shirts Decent $30 polo last [--] machine washes $1/wear. Lululemon $80 polo last [--] machine washes $1.6/wear. Zegna $700 polo lasts [--] professional hand washes (machine is no longer economical) $12/wear including laundry cost Loro Piana $1200 polo last [--] professional hand washes (machine is no longer economical) $18/wear including laundry cost. Per year that is $365 $584 $4380 and $6570. Shirts are by far the most expensive since they have to be washed every wear. Pants Decent $50 pants last [--] machine washes $1.6/wash. Washed"
X Link 2025-08-19T00:33Z 31K followers, 113.4K engagements

"A few comments showing the transformation of breakfast chains over time. Essentially $DEN Denny's got watered down to a basic restaurant they have Keke's which is the same thing and now $CBRL is following suit (which makes no sense). First Watch $FWRG is the nicer interior modern competition that people are willing to pay a premium for. @DonutShorts @MotherCabriniNY First watch is the modern higher end breakfast look where people are willing to pay a premium. https://t.co/fjKtRIVb5v @DonutShorts @MotherCabriniNY First watch is the modern higher end breakfast look where people are willing to"
X Link 2025-08-23T06:30Z 31.3K followers, 10.4K engagements

"A poetic ending of this cycle's bull market would be: A 3x bear ETF $DOWN launches and becomes a meme gathering $100 billion AUM. It'd be the funniest ending because retail investors would have won in the end"
X Link 2025-09-04T11:55Z 31K followers, [----] engagements

"I'd point out too that Hikari Tsushin's $9435 model is very similar - cheap stocks and work outs. And they even have the value adding portion by using their own elite marketing staff for these businesses"
X Link 2025-09-06T12:18Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Hikari Tsushin $9435 borrows in USD at 6% for [--] years taking advantage of the easy US debt market in the USA right now. Also worth contrasting this with the no bid in private credit broadly despite such narrow spreads"
X Link 2025-09-11T03:43Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@guruli_ Cactaur talking about Hikari Tsushin wonderful stuff"
X Link 2025-09-29T01:31Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"Many things are like this with big diminishing returns after the first 30-40 minutes. The first hour a day you study a language is near full efficiency. The next hour is only 65%. It seems true for searching for new stocks and separately for reviewing existing stocks and separately for reviewing bet size and risk. Etc. Claude Shannon's approach was the same. Work on many different things at once. The majority of exercise's benefits are gained in the first few minutes you do Just [--] minutes of moderate daily exercise is linked to a 14% reduction in mortality https://t.co/skB22EGc95 The"
X Link 2025-10-14T01:39Z 31.2K followers, 34.3K engagements

"I started renting bonsai trees. They will rotate in a new one every week which I'll update in this thread"
X Link 2025-10-22T07:01Z 31.3K followers, 88.1K engagements

"Burry is bad at investing. He's just one of many value investors from the early 2000s that concluded their track record with a single good macro bet on housing. One factor bet plus one macro bet. That's it. This was of course no real sample size at all. Burry completely ignored outreach from at least [--] of the actual top up and coming young PMs I know. I seriously doubt that his suggestion here is any good based on that. Nobody should get sucked into yet another likely bad selection of his without seeing a solid real money track record first. Michael Burry appears to be shutting down Scion"
X Link 2025-11-13T05:22Z 31K followers, 634.1K engagements

"$MTN Bad executive incentives spill into the real world. Paying for EBITDA is so stupid"
X Link 2025-12-20T10:42Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"$MTN They sure hit the EBITDA target Vail charges $329 for one adult lift pass at Whistler today ($165 for a youth). $1000 for a day of skiing family of [--]. Average [--] bedroom condo $600/night. Means a family when including food dropping about $2000 a day. Does this look like a recession to you https://t.co/px0mQTsMNf Vail charges $329 for one adult lift pass at Whistler today ($165 for a youth). $1000 for a day of skiing family of [--]. Average [--] bedroom condo $600/night. Means a family when including food dropping about $2000 a day. Does this look like a recession to you https://t.co/px0mQTsMNf"
X Link 2025-12-20T10:44Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"In poker your "equity" in a hand is the % chance to win if no more bets go in and you just run the cards out. Bad poker pros focus on the headline equity number. They think "My equity is 35% but my odds on the immediate call imply that I only need 30% thus I'm getting good enough odds to call." The problem is that more and bigger bets can be made before the hand actually gets to a showdown. Instead of thinking about the raw equity the poker pro was supposed to think about how often and what true price he'd have to pay to actually realize his equity. Poker is a lot more complex than the simple"
X Link 2026-01-01T12:59Z 31.2K followers, 57.9K engagements

"Diageo I am long it seems like one of the relatively best consumer staples I've seen. But I am betting small because staples face bad headwinds even if they own great brands. Once again this is very correlated to another big bet of theirs Unilever so now the portfolio is very concentrated seeming. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010622188408418569 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010622188408418569"
X Link 2026-01-12T07:57Z 31.2K followers, 15.7K engagements

"Burberry is junk"
X Link 2026-01-12T08:02Z 31K followers, 11.8K engagements

"Schroders plc asset management firm w/ most revenue tied to management fees. EPS flat for a long time. Book value/share doubled since [----] and they pay a 5% dividend. Trades for 15x earnings. Seems like a garden variety 7% yield play including book value growth. However this all seems overly optimistic because those were the numbers in a wonderful long bull market. After that ends then what A better way of farming the "growth" is just the market going up and thus fees going up. This screams value trap to me pass https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010625741764071541"
X Link 2026-01-12T08:11Z 31K followers, 14.2K engagements

"Tried to tear this idea apart a bit. Maybe if they were long mostly UK stocks the result was a lot more impressive since UK stocks did so badly. But they were just long VT essentially so likely caught the bull market. Thanks AI"
X Link 2026-01-12T08:39Z 31K followers, [----] engagements

"@RealJimChanos @MIT Show me a real continuous long/short track record then if it actually exists"
X Link 2026-01-17T01:41Z 31.2K followers, [---] engagements

"Militia Capital's gross exposure just crossed $1 billion for the first time. Long - $575 million Short - $440 million The fund launched [--] years ago. This has been a wild ride"
X Link 2026-01-26T09:51Z 31.2K followers, 29.2K engagements

"@jam_croissant And also the idea that Trump was compromised by tiny Putin was always insane. That was hardcore tds stuff"
X Link 2026-02-03T02:41Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Common narrative: US stocks are lagging global stocks because of politics. It shouldn't be a shocker but that's pure noise. The real reasons US stocks are lagging: [--]. US starting valuations are/were way too high. [--]. AI is terrible for existing entrenched US monopolies"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:50Z 31.3K followers, 20.8K engagements

""No no Dave it's really this bull shit thing about the global reserve currency" That variable is and will always be total noise for stocks it doesn't matter at all"
X Link 2026-02-04T01:58Z 31K followers, 12.5K engagements

"Today's lunch is real Kobe beef shabu"
X Link 2026-02-04T02:31Z 31.2K followers, 17.7K engagements

"@quantum_macro It's just nonsense"
X Link 2026-02-04T07:47Z 31.2K followers, [---] engagements

"Here's how noisy "global reserve currency" really is: [--]. If the US dollar lost this status nobody knows confidently if it's even bullish or bearish the dollar. It's likely bearish but even then the timing is hard to say. which leads to the most important point [--]. Isn't a weak dollar generally seen as bullish for US stocks in dollar terms anyway This part I don't think anyone can possible know. If you can't know confidently [--] that well. And you can't know [--] at all. And this whole variable is super gradual and the outcome totally unknowable. Then . what the hell do you even waste time thinking"
X Link 2026-02-04T08:19Z 31K followers, [----] engagements

"I made this convenient spreadsheet so people can see my Seeking Alpha track record easily. It includes screen shots of when I said I quit each bet for each position in the article's comments. On average longs beat the SPY by [--] and shorts 45%. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AIh2yxcuGq75bvU_lsTEn2-J3IqBwhNDmKXUPvCyjXw/editusp=sharing @DiscountedTr I have nothing against David. Dont know much about the guy. But I saw his seeking alpha write ups multiple of his longs went bankrupt or lost like 99% of their market value"
X Link 2026-02-04T13:07Z 31.2K followers, 40.9K engagements

"Duolingo has so many lessons about the Chinese pandas leaving Japan soon. It's the only topic in the app that is based on current events. And I do mean only. It doesn't seem organic whatsoever"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:12Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

""How would such and such investor do if these factor pairs blew out" "He is only performing well because of the market regime." And so on. Well on days like today you can see clearly. You don't have to speculate. Today is the 4th worst one day % change in momentum vs value since [----] using MS long baskets (so far). Momentum down big. Value up big. Short term % change of the ratio is useful but absolute levels of the ratio over longer term timeframes are not. MS long baskets have long https://t.co/lbKNv352JN Today is the 4th worst one day % change in momentum vs value since [----] using MS long"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:55Z 31.2K followers, 17.6K engagements

"@valuedrift @cavdad13 I sleep really badly if the portfolio volatility gets too high and so I fix it. Portfolio is probably fine or even win if the market drops a lot in the hedge fund"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:10Z 31K followers, [----] engagements

"Beware of investing in funds that have wild swings correlated to this purely speculative factor"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:27Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"My team went through and cleaned this sheet up to make it even clearer. I had made it years ago before I had people to help with this kind of thing and so it's even easier to follow now: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AIh2yxcuGq75bvU_lsTEn2-J3IqBwhNDmKXUPvCyjXw/editusp=sharing I made this convenient spreadsheet so people can see my Seeking Alpha track record easily. It includes screen shots of when I said I quit each bet for each position in the article's comments. On average longs beat the SPY by [--] and shorts 45%. https://t.co/gJRdFNjN7e"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:14Z 31.3K followers, 16.4K engagements

"For example the Epstein drama. People are watching it for entertainment if they're being honest with themselves and/or others. And nobody else cares. Never ever tell anyone about your problems. 90% of the people really don't care. The other 10% are glad you have them. Charlie Munger https://t.co/hgy3aMlXxJ Never ever tell anyone about your problems. 90% of the people really don't care. The other 10% are glad you have them. Charlie Munger https://t.co/hgy3aMlXxJ"
X Link 2026-02-07T06:57Z 31.2K followers, 14.7K engagements

"Heaviest snow I've seen in Osaka so far"
X Link 2026-02-08T00:53Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"I'm so anti-China because I saw how awful mainland Chinese people are. When I first moved to Chiang Mai in [----] there were almost no Chinese people and things were great. By [----] there was an army of Chinese tourists and they were easily the worst in the world and there were so many of them. They are just awful people. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020639953781477530 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020639953781477530"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:24Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@mastersinvest These kinds of ideologue investors always perform bad long term"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:48Z 31.1K followers, [----] engagements

"@mastersinvest What was Buffett's IRR by decade Even at the end he still cared an awful lot about valuation. I'm going to block you because I block all ideologues on here"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:55Z 31.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@NBCNews Report more on China's military activity in the region"
X Link 2026-02-10T06:26Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@AltayCapital @ACapitalLP And as it typical the post has been deleted These people man"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:45Z 31.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@finphysnerd @AltayCapital @ACapitalLP It's so bizarre too. Announce plainly that you're dishonest . vs whos really going to look up the post later on Now instead of dunking on @ACapitalLP for the stupid idea I can just dunk on him for being dishonest instead which is way worse"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:53Z 31.1K followers, [---] engagements

"@MaxAnderson This doesn't work the cap on investments you can have in a qsbs is very low as a percent of assets"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:36Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@NJ_Capital_ @SowingAlphaSeed @irbezek The lower fee ETF is the right thing to do for anyone but the truly exceptional pm. Even the truly exceptional pm is destroying value with $1 billion with hedge fund fees. A good lesson from studying real businesses: what's right for the customer is the model that wins"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:39Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@wmthomson22 @NJ_Capital_ @SowingAlphaSeed @irbezek It's not even close they destroy immense value"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:00Z 31.2K followers, [---] engagements

"@FredinHeaven4 When something has a higher valuation you get more of it in the real world. And when something has a lower valuation you get less of it. They are not just numbers on the screen"
X Link 2026-02-12T03:09Z 31.2K followers, [---] engagements

"@MikeFritzell Whole thing is gross. At least in that fund I believe they donate a ton of the fees to a good charity. though even that story doesn't seem so clear since the manager's divorce [--] years ago"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:41Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"Alright well I didn't know this detail before berating the guy. Agreed here: Hohn is a trash person. @orrdavid @MikeFritzell He uses it as a funding mechanism. https://t.co/kzb3703dhc @orrdavid @MikeFritzell He uses it as a funding mechanism. https://t.co/kzb3703dhc"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:56Z 31.3K followers, 20.5K engagements

"@Tintincapital I don't know the first thing about the company and will never really bother to dive in. So no position. With that said this is an often mentioned fintwit stock since as long as I can remember. And with a chart like this just based on that alone it's tempting to short"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:34Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@Tintincapital Only skipping this one because a couple smart guys I respect a lot like it. but yeah. Maybe it's better to just let some go sometimes Again no real clue here this is purely based on fintwit sentiment + chart and nothing else"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:35Z 31.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@invertedfragil1 I'm in favor of taxing unrealized gains in a very narrow sense with careful rules. When I see it done that poorly though I move far against the policy because it's just too delicate and simply not taxing rich people at all is a better outcome than that crap"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:28Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"I've been using solely Duolingo for learning Japanese zero immersion (which isn't really even possible as a total beginner). In [---] hours of study on there and nothing else I could pass the n5 exam. That's normally supposed to take 300+ hours. I think so many people say it doesn't work to learn a language because you still ultimately need a huge number of hours (1k+ for basic Japanese conversations) and almost nobody puts in the time. And instead of take responsibility it's easier to blame an app"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:30Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"@invertedfragil1 @ShinskySam @DaBao_ @finphysnerd If you know [----] words super well you will recognize around 95% of words you see in a regular setting. So at that point you start looking up the 5% you don't know if you can't figure out the meaning from context. Total you want to know around 10k words to be very comfortable"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:17Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@invertedfragil1 @ShinskySam @DaBao_ @finphysnerd I love reading so much I'll just learn that way. Once I reach lift off for that the hours I'll put in will be extreme automatically. Even if my speaking etc isn't as trained the extreme hours will win"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:19Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@invertedfragil1 @ShinskySam @DaBao_ @finphysnerd I hope Duolingo adds another [----] words before I'm done because it seems like the best possible way to reach lift off to me"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:21Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@OnyxAurelius @ShinskySam @DaBao_ @finphysnerd For sounding like a native it's supposed to be a lot harder. I don't care if I sound American. If anything that's probably fine for helping the brand"
X Link 2026-02-13T10:29Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"I'm pretty sure I can already pass N5 based on having chatGPT write me up a bunch of sample questions. I've studied the best way to learn a language before even starting. It seems that learning words in context (a real sentence) with SRS is best even if you don't memorize Kanji etc as fast. The problem is pure memorization isn't actually useful without the context"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:21Z 31.3K followers, [--] engagements

"@DaBao_ @CasinoCapital @ShinskySam @finphysnerd That's exactly what Duolingo is teaching - I know [--] of those example characters already"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:22Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"@CasinoCapital @ShinskySam @DaBao_ @finphysnerd The big flaw of Duolingo is that it doesn't do enough review. But you can fix that if you just go back and do the older lessons mixed in. The pace that seems to work best for me is 20-30 minutes of new content a day 30-40 minutes of review"
X Link 2026-02-13T12:23Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"People have an innate intelligence which cannot really be improved - you cannot train people to have a higher or lower IQ. Besides that I don't think there's anything even new here. The key decision maker used to hire a floor of analysts and now the machine gives a better answer in [--] minutes. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022496283450040704 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022496283450040704"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:21Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"RT @SowingAlphaSeed: Interesting concept ETFs the e.g. put all their money on a bet that the next president will be a Republican. Then aft"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:19Z 31.3K followers, [--] engagements

"@olliejmorgan @SowingAlphaSeed The house take is way too high"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:28Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"Looked through [--] random stocks of the MSCI Japanese Small Cap ETF $SCJ. There's a night and day difference between the holdings in it and the stuff outside the etfs. Unlike in the USA where the vast majority of thinly traded stocks are a trap they're genuinely cheap in Japan"
X Link 2024-02-28T04:33Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Hikari Tsushin $9435 is run by an allocator that doubles book/share every 3-4 years. Runs 200% leverage in a ZIRP environment. Website gives Teledyne or Berkshire vibes. Trades for 1.5x book / 10x earnings. https://www.hikari.co.jp/ https://www.hikari.co.jp/"
X Link 2024-06-16T03:15Z 31.4K followers, 102.3K engagements

"I have a 10% position in Hikari Tsushin $9435 today but I swear it's not big enough. If this was a US stock - so that I understood it better - I'd probably be at 20%"
X Link 2024-08-24T23:26Z 31.4K followers, 48.8K engagements

"$9435 Hikari Tsushin summary. Wonder how much AI can even improve from here. this is excellent"
X Link 2025-05-15T05:40Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"$9435 Hikari Tsushin's business model is simple and great: * Have some of the best salesmen in Japan sell company products and reward them handsomely on their performance * Acquire more companies that benefit from having these best salesmen sell their products * Find the best underused talent from those acquired often stagnant companies and cycle them into the core business * Repeat over and over. What's the growth runway on that model https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922901689746718958 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1922901689746718958"
X Link 2025-05-15T06:27Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Even Buffett was doing this. He was also short selling broad baskets of stocks in the partnership days. And I'm guessing there were other things he wasn't even talking about all these years because why crowd an edge"
X Link 2025-09-06T12:17Z 31.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Importantly Hikari Tsushin does not charge hedge fund like fees for making these investments. That's the killer subtle variable that steals all/most of the value away from shareholders of permanent capital vehicles. Just like @davidein's $GLRE scam"
X Link 2025-09-11T09:43Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"My upgraded investing setup [--] years later. My sophisticated investing setup. https://t.co/DZu9b3eyk4 My sophisticated investing setup. https://t.co/DZu9b3eyk4"
X Link 2025-10-29T13:46Z 31.4K followers, 2.8M engagements

"Rightmove looks like the UK's Zillow so yet another huge software company bet. Revenue and operating income doubled since [----]. Share count is down so EPS is up 150%. Growth required no real cash spend. So numbers look good here. Trades for 20x earnings maybe the first interesting stock I hadn't seen before on the list but I'd want to understand the threat to their biz model long term. I've gone back and forth on Zillow itself a few times so I can kind of see this one. If growth is going to be solid long term this is a fine bet and sizing is also fine though maybe a bit aggressive."
X Link 2026-01-12T08:02Z 31.4K followers, 12.9K engagements

"@schaal @SowingAlphaSeed Yeah I've heard the suggestion that you can use a corp shell loophole but for how long is that going to last. The other thing I've heard it "I'll leave for Malta". which isn't a real solution either"
X Link 2026-02-15T23:45Z 31.4K followers, [--] engagements

"The Militia Long/Short Equity ETF has launched The ticker symbol is $ORR and it just began trading. The strategy is similar to my hedge fund investing in global stocks up to 150% long and 100% short. This strategy will typically have lower correlation and beta to the market than most public investments. This means that during a strong bull run $ORR will have a tough time keeping up. But in a weak market $ORR is expected to outperform. My reasons for launching $ORR rather than growing my hedge fund: Many of the investments in my hedge fund are illiquid and I wont be able to trade them if my"
X Link 2025-01-21T15:03Z 31.4K followers, 422.2K engagements

"Another holding of $9435: 13x earnings 50% of the market cap in cash No debt 20% return on capital Hikari Tsushin also believes in stepping over [--] foot hurdles . only with far more favorable terms on their debt than I can get. Hikari Tsushin K.K. increasing Bell-Park Co. Ltd. 9441.T from 1.69% 2.79% Hikari Tsushin K.K. increasing Bell-Park Co. Ltd. 9441.T from 1.69% 2.79%"
X Link 2025-09-11T09:40Z 31.4K followers, 18.3K engagements

"This is how I feel when I listen to ideologue investors. Investing isn't as simple as value quality and/or growth. Even a balanced weighting of all [--] doesn't get you there. Yet so many people try to boil it down to just one of those"
X Link 2026-02-10T04:09Z 31.4K followers, 14.7K engagements

"@AltayCapital @Tintincapital I'm only even long $WISE at this point because I need it to balance factors. And I like that one the best by far out of the ones I know in this similar space"
X Link 2026-02-12T09:43Z 31.4K followers, [---] engagements

"I'm trying to think through how much AI could move the needle in a business like this to see if it could become a much better business if most of the physical work could be automated. Say you could make a profit $400/sweater after vertically integrating everything. That's a super rough guess. That'd be $6 million/year profit vs the land value alone is $15 million. nevermind all the rest of the costs. This just seems like an awful biz at least in the USA. In a cheap country that could be a lot different That has its own issues though and the USA is so vast it should be cheap this way but maybe"
X Link 2026-02-16T08:11Z 31.4K followers, [---] engagements

"If you run a performance (not marketing) based fund or strategy trying to raise money the non-traditional way: Never ask potential investors/backers for call so you can discuss your strategy. It serves no purpose. It just makes you seem like a marketing guy"
X Link 2026-02-07T02:58Z 31.4K followers, 16.1K engagements

"I'm a fan of most Sanae Takaichi's stances. I like that restricting lower end (esp Muslim) immigration. I especially like the hardline stance on China. If Japan re-militarizes with a clear policy of Taiwan-China intervention Taiwan seems safe once the build up is done"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:20Z 31.4K followers, 13.2K engagements

"It cannot be stressed enough how big a variable it is for Japan to change their constitution. This would make China's ambition to conquer Taiwan impossible. It would take a while for Japan to build up a strong military so this could pressure China to take action earlier before it becomes impossible entirely. Today is a great day for the eastern free world. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020645591395762659 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020645591395762659"
X Link 2026-02-08T23:47Z 31.4K followers, 72.2K engagements

"Now that our best and brightest won't get stuck working in rent extraction machines - law finance etc - I expect things in the physical world might finally start trending up in quality - in a serious way - again"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:36Z 31.4K followers, 51.4K engagements

"When evaluating supposedly great track records always check to see how much the lifetime IRR was impacted by the first few years. You will see this same pattern over and over again. It's a trap to listen to these funds. This one even pivoted styles after the initial run"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:30Z 31.4K followers, 14.7K engagements

"This fund runs pretty concentrated and so the thin "edge" over the market after those first [--] years isn't even statistically significant"
X Link 2026-02-12T04:33Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Someone emailed me the 2009-2011 numbers which were unsurprisingly bad. So they miraculously leak the numbers on strong years. I don't get why anyone invests with dishonest trash like this"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:36Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Policies this poorly thought through will ruin a country. I don't see why the USA should stay attached too companies that insist on self destruction. They should ultimately bear the extreme consequences of these decisions. NETHERLANDS HOUSE PASSES 36% TAX ON UNREALIZED GAINS As expected the Dutch House of Representatives has approved a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains with only forward loss offsets permitted. The proposal now moves to the Senate where parties that supported the bill also NETHERLANDS HOUSE PASSES 36% TAX ON UNREALIZED GAINS As expected the Dutch House of Representatives has"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:10Z 31.4K followers, 14.4K engagements

"The tech monopolist's political shift was happening before California's latest blunder. It used to be that regulatory brain damage was good for entrenched monopolies. But now that they need to build things in the real world (ai hardware and power etc) it hurts them instead. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars electing Democrats and is now fleeing from the consequences of having done so https://t.co/ySjgb6Ocyq He spent hundreds of millions of dollars electing Democrats and is now fleeing from the consequences of having done so https://t.co/ySjgb6Ocyq"
X Link 2026-02-13T06:45Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@ShinskySam @DaBao_ @finphysnerd It's just a brute force grind to learn the characters and the many meanings of each character. This is a perfect simple example of why immersion doesn't help with Japanese. If it wasn't for this single roadblock I could learn fast"
X Link 2026-02-13T07:06Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Pursuing mercantilism is a mistake. Economists are right about this. Allowing your trade partner to pursue mercantilism against you is also a mistake though. Economists are wrong about this. Important strategy speech at Davos from U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer on tariffs and Trump's current approach. Worth a read. Thanks to @LukeGromen for highlighting. https://t.co/eWi9STY7Sx https://t.co/5hnBHroSoD Important strategy speech at Davos from U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer on tariffs and Trump's current approach. Worth a read. Thanks to @LukeGromen for highlighting. https://t.co/eWi9STY7Sx"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:01Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"One of the greatest investors of all time sees the issue with a perpetual extreme trade imbalance. This story doesn't even go far enough to explain just how bad our status quo is though. For example Americans cannot own anything - in a real sense - in China. For another example it's as if Squanderville in this story passed laws to prevent people from working even if they wanted to - which is the reality of the situation for many American industries killed by environmental regulation that their Chinees competitors don't face. @orrdavid Buffett in [----]. libertarian logic is sound enough short"
X Link 2026-02-14T08:25Z 31.4K followers, 13.6K engagements

"It's a tragedy - a tragedy to be fixed - that bad investors like Ackman siphon away so much moeny from society. They're a cancer. @TripleNetInvest Looks even worse when you do a factor attribution. https://t.co/JbQKD0QVTC @TripleNetInvest Looks even worse when you do a factor attribution. https://t.co/JbQKD0QVTC"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:13Z 31.4K followers, 22.6K engagements

"I love @tomicki's slick new website. So Ackman picked the wrong factors and within those factor he loses 4%/year alpha"
X Link 2026-02-14T13:15Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed This is so cool and obviously way more fair than the current prediction markets. This could beome such a big product"
X Link 2026-02-15T01:20Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Territory map of the Russia/Ukraine war. First picture [--] year ago second today"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:38Z 31.4K followers, 14.8K engagements

"Pretty damn slow going for Russia. It melts my brain listening to guys like Tucker stay wrong and proclaim that Ukraine cannot possible avoid total defeat. That's a possible outcome still of course but anyone who still thinks that thesis after [--] years is brain dead"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:48Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Crazy that it's already been [--] years"
X Link 2026-02-15T12:52Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@SowingAlphaSeed It's mind bendingly stupid. And that's an index. Anyone trying to pick stocks is in for a world of extreme pain. And that assumes you even have a bull run. What happens in a [--] years sideways market . in real terms"
X Link 2026-02-15T14:30Z 31.4K followers, [---] engagements

"My thesis is that so many of our best people currently work in the digital world. Laptop jobs from design to law to accounting to programming everything like that. And soon they will be forced to return to the physical world. Furniture is a good example. So much of what gets made today is really bad. If we have more people that become skilled craftsmen won't the price of high quality furniture drop Not sure TBH but I can see it. If so wouldn't that flow into homes generally Food is harder to see a price drop. Transportation seems obvious once self driving becomes competitive it will be much"
X Link 2026-02-16T00:15Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Lots of people say that laptop jobs disappearing is a tragedy. But these same people didn't care at all - truly didn't care or even took pleasure in it - that truck drivers were about to lose their jobs a few years ago. Talk about blind spots biases etc I think this comes from an undeserved superiority complex. Building digital monopolies was such a good gig for so long that gave them more money and thus status. Well it doesn't have to be the case now. Those people are about to become second class citizens to people that can work in the physical world well . which we'd already been seeing a"
X Link 2026-02-16T00:26Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"This is a pretty niche and crazy example alpaca sweaters is kind of ridiculous. What about something like actually good quality beef in the USA Bring the techniques used in Japan but use AI to automate it since American workers won't have the same Japanese obsession Maybe this opens up a whole new biz that wasn't possible before I'm pretty sure Americans would pay big money for extremely good beef. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023309796666220662 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2023309796666220662"
X Link 2026-02-16T08:13Z 31.4K followers, [---] engagements

""If someone wants a leaner beefier chewier steak." Maybe AI isn't progressing as fast as I thought"
X Link 2026-02-16T08:42Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"@tomicki How hard would it be to add a simple daily Sharpe/Sortino figure to each stock/ETF And would it also be possible to make a leaderboard of all the ones in the world for ETFs"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:55Z 31.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Think of all the guys who came up with the idea to bet huge on memory. And then think of how none seem to have thought to buy [--] year deep otm call options on EWY. People should spend more time looking up the best way to execute a trade idea and less idea finding trade ideas"
X Link 2026-02-16T09:57Z 31.4K followers, 52.9K engagements

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