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@PeterBerezinBCA "After briefly bouncing back in May soft-data labor market indicators have fallen back into recessionary territory"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-09-08T21:56Z 40.9K followers, 22.3K engagements

"@MikeUmbro Take a look at the fertility rate in Hong Kong and Singapore"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-13T21:28Z 40.9K followers, 2156 engagements

"A couple of examples of the quant screens I run:"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-05T14:35Z 40.9K followers, 22.8K engagements

"Companies still say that they intend to increase AI usage but actual adoption rates among large companies appear to have already peaked"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-11T13:21Z 40.9K followers, 12.9K engagements

"Big data suggests that real retail sales may have flatlined in September"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-01T13:10Z 40.9K followers, 28.1K engagements

"Labor supply has slowed but labor demand has slowed even more as evidenced by the recent decline in job openings"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-14T22:18Z 40.9K followers, 8333 engagements

"Wind and solar has accounted for about XX% of the incremental increase in US electricity generating capacity over the past year. What is going to power all these data centers being built"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-08-20T14:53Z 40.9K followers, 12.2K engagements

"People are using AI to create all sorts of memes but its worth noting that AI has yet to invent on its own any meme that has resonated with the public. This tells you a lot about the benefits and limitations of todays LLMs"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-06T22:19Z 40.9K followers, 11K engagements

"Tracking estimates for Q3 GDP growth are very strong while employment growth appears very weak. If the data are correct this means that productivity growth in Q3 must have accelerated. This probably will turn out to be the correct explanation (although whether the productivity improvement is just noise or the start of a lasting trend is not yet clear). But there is another possibility which is that the data are simply wrong. Its worth recalling that the initial estimates for Q1 2008 GDP growth were around positive X% but were ultimately revised down to negative 1.7%"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-09T22:20Z 40.9K followers, 20K engagements

"Is data center capex about to hit an energy wall"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-08-20T21:27Z 40.9K followers, 121.8K engagements

"The demographic outlook in Europe is dire. In Germany there are XX% more people between the ages of XX and XX as there are between XX and XX. Who is going to pay for their health care and pensions A skill-based immigration system would help but that is the opposite of what Europe has. According to the OECD labor market participation among immigrants is lower across most of the region than among the native-born. Educational achievement is also far worse even among second-generation immigrants"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-11T13:30Z 40.9K followers, 90.8K engagements

"So what happens to the stock market if we figure out how to do AI without a $X trillion in capex"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-15T17:29Z 40.9K followers, 173.1K engagements

"Markets are inherently unpredictable but there is one thing I can predict with XXX% certainty: In two weeks most strategists will be either saying that they told everyone to buy the dip on Oct XX or that stocks were overbought and vulnerable to further downside"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-10T20:04Z 40.9K followers, 20.9K engagements

"Even if OpenAI could achieve its goal of growing revenue to $XXX billion by 2030 (which would be more than Metas current sales) it would still struggle to fund all this capex. Dont call it a pyramid scheme. Its a trapezoidal AI opportunity"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-15T11:45Z 40.9K followers, 4749 engagements

"Heres something you probably didnt know: Japanese net government debt has fallen by XX percentage points of GDP since 2020"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-06T00:14Z 40.9K followers, 139.4K engagements

"The share of small businesses reporting poor sales as their top problem remained flat in September. Historically this series has moved closely with the unemployment rate"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-14T13:52Z 40.9K followers, 14.9K engagements

"I keep hearing how tariffs are primarily a tax on US consumers. Thats not correct. More than two-thirds of US imports are intermediate and capital goods. Tariffs are primarily a tax on businesses"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-09-06T13:43Z 40.9K followers, 36K engagements

"China is an extreme example but fertility rates have been collapsing globally for the past XX years. Depression rates among young women are also soaring. Its hard to avoid the conclusion that social media is behind both trends"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-13T17:04Z 40.9K followers, 135.5K engagements

"The fraction of mortgages with a rate above X% is now almost as high as the fraction below 3%. Given that the average mortgage rate is still well below the rate on new mortgages the former will continue to trend higher over time squeezing discretionary spending in the process"
X Link @PeterBerezinBCA 2025-10-01T20:51Z 40.9K followers, 30K engagements