@PeterBerezinBCA Peter Berezin

Peter Berezin posts on X about inflation, stocks, tariffs, ai the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-------] #

Mentions: [--] #

Followers: [------] #

CreatorRank: [-------] #

Social Influence

Social category influence finance countries technology brands stocks us election travel destinations celebrities currencies social networks automotive brands

Social topic influence inflation, stocks, tariffs #1647, ai, china, gdp, fed #91, over the, rates, money

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @dannydayan5 @bcaresearch @bergvikjohnny @caccumulation @cremieuxrecueil @linkup @econberger @stocksgoupndown @markoinny @tylerhardt @elinetics @natetures @zg44_analytics @baratariabay @ponquecitos @bowtieddetektiv @freedom_totalus @econparker @johnauthers @economics

Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) Rally (RLY) Optimism (OP)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"With the Atlanta Fed GDPNow pointing to real GDP growth of 4.3% in Q4 the US economic surprise index has hooked up. History suggests that this could lead to upward revisions to forward earnings estimates"
X Link 2022-11-30T05:11Z 23.9K followers, [--] engagements

"Commercial real estate is most at risk for a slowdown in regional bank lending"
X Link 2023-03-16T23:44Z 23.9K followers, 10K engagements

"Since [----] sales-per-share in the IT sector have increased by 45% relative to the S&P [---] but earnings-per-share have increased by 112% and price-per-share has increased by 216% (Chart 4). Thus around 80% of the outperformance of IT stocks can be attributed to rising profit margins among a select group of companies and the higher PE multiples that investors assigned to them"
X Link 2023-06-05T02:24Z 22.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Big jump in bullish sentiment in the latest AAII survey. Our quant models say that subsequent equity returns are highest when sentiment improves from bearish levels and lowest when sentiment deteriorates from bullish levels"
X Link 2023-06-08T13:04Z 18K followers, [----] engagements

"Why hasnt the economy responded more to higher rates A key reason is that monetary policy works primarily through the housing market and the preponderance of fixed-rate mortgages has blunted the impact of Fed rate hikes"
X Link 2023-06-15T11:58Z 18.5K followers, 49.5K engagements

"The UK Producer Price Index leads the CPI by five months. Just as the Bank of England was too slow in raising rates it will likely be too slow in cutting them"
X Link 2023-06-23T22:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Every single US recession has begun when the corporate sector financial balance an economy-wide measure of free cash flow was in deficit. Today it is in surplus of 2% of gross value added"
X Link 2023-07-19T23:14Z 22.6K followers, 335.6K engagements

"Housing is the most interest-rate sensitive sector of the US economy but a shortage of homes and the popularity of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is limiting the impact of Fed rate hikes on this sector"
X Link 2023-07-20T23:17Z 22.1K followers, 58.8K engagements

"3m supercore PCE inflation back down to 2%. Super-duper core PCE inflation (ex-financial services) below 2%"
X Link 2023-07-30T20:50Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements

"Falling inflation can sow seeds of its own demise. Because wages are more sticky than prices falling inflation will tend to lift real wages leading to more spending. Real wages in the US are still 4% below their pre-pandemic trend so they have plenty of upside. Larry was right to flag the risk of a second wave"
X Link 2023-08-26T02:25Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements

"The opposite is more likely. The AI frenzy will lead to more investment and a larger wealth effect in the short run raising demand and inflation in the process. Over the long haul increased supply will probably be deflationary especially if accompanied by higher inequality"
X Link 2023-08-28T09:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"LinkUps estimate of nationwide job openings rose in August. Job openings posted on Indeed have also begun to tick higher. A second inflation wave remains a risk"
X Link 2023-09-06T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Does the Fed need to overcompensate by driving inflation back below 2% The answer appears to be no since the recent inflation overshoot largely compensates for the inflation undershoot that preceded it"
X Link 2023-09-19T19:18Z 18.2K followers, 10.7K engagements

"@Econ_Parker Yes Germany was a big beneficiary of the euro as evidenced by the massive current account surplus it was able to run. If it had been stuck with an expensive Deutschmark its economy would have been much less competitive in global trade"
X Link 2023-09-23T13:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Why are bond yields going up A: Foreigners are dumping Treasuries. Why is the US dollar going up A: Foreigners want more of those good ol safe-haven Treasuries. Pick a side folks If fears of debt monetization were pushing yields higher the dollar would be falling and market-based inflation expectations would be rising neither of which is happening. Its all about a higher r-star"
X Link 2023-10-07T02:49Z [----] followers, 60.2K engagements

"Bond bears of which I was one until October are making a big mistake. They are seeing that employment remains resilient and concluding that this means that monetary policy is not restrictive. Wrong As the chart below shows when the economy is near full employment falling labor demand will mainly show up in the form of lower job openings and slower wage growth. Thats what were seeing now as evidenced by a shrinking jobs-workers gap"
X Link 2023-10-10T02:48Z [----] followers, 305.3K engagements

"According to a recent Chicago Fed study about one-third of the effects on GDP and 60% of the effects on total hours worked from past rate hikes have yet to be felt"
X Link 2023-10-12T05:17Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"Bond yields tend to peak around the time of the last Fed rate hike. I dont expect any more rate hikes which is why I turned positive on bonds recently"
X Link 2023-10-12T05:32Z 22.4K followers, 48.5K engagements

"Everyone knows that the US fiscal outlook has only worsened over the past few years right Wrong Looking at the CBOs long-term debt projections the trajectory while still unsustainable with no policy adjustments is not as bad as it was in [----] when the 10-year bond yield was less than 2%"
X Link 2023-11-04T13:48Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements

"Some perspective on what OpenAIs board might have been worried about"
X Link 2023-11-19T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The fact that the increase in mental fog is more pronounced in the young than the old suggests that something beyond Covid is responsible. My guess is that deteriorating mental health among young people is a key factor"
X Link 2023-11-22T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Some references to our kinked Phillips curve framework by @johnauthers Something New on Wall Street for2024 Humility"
X Link 2023-11-28T13:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Is South Korea Disappearing"
X Link 2023-12-03T15:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"Wall Street investment research"
X Link 2023-12-05T23:51Z [----] followers, 59.2K engagements

"Despite all the hand-wringing about bad US schools US-born Asian kids performed better than kids in other Asian economies on the latest OECD PISA exams. Chart by @cremieuxrecueil"
X Link 2023-12-06T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Four years later our kinked Phillips curve framework continues to be a useful guide to the direction of bond yields. From our [----] annual outlook released on Friday:"
X Link 2023-12-10T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"We were bullish on stocks going into [----] and our MacroQuant model still sees near-term upside for equities. But the path to a soft landing remains very narrow and did not widen today. While this weeks FOMC meeting reduced the risk of a recession in the next few quarters thanks to the accompanying easing in financial conditions it has increased the risk of a second wave of inflation. And a resurgence of inflation would ultimately result in a deeper recession than one where the economy simply continued to cool"
X Link 2023-12-13T21:55Z [----] followers, 28.5K engagements

"South Korea sees its record-low fertility rate plumbing new lows annually for a few more years eventually reaching a level below what was previously projected in a sign that its persistent demographic challenges may become more severe via @economics"
X Link 2023-12-14T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Central bank buying has indeed been a big part of the story. Chinese gold holdings are now 4% of foreign reserves up from 1% in 2012"
X Link 2023-12-17T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"There is no doubt that supply disruptions greatly contributed to higher inflation. However there are at least two reasons why demand must have also been an important contributory factor. First as the chart below shows while goods prices rose during the pandemic spending on goods also increased. If it had just been a story about supply disruptions good prices would have risen but goods output and spending would have fallen as the supply curve for goods shifted inwards. Second the labor participation rate began to recover well before inflation accelerated. All things equal increasing labor"
X Link 2023-12-19T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Only 30% of economists expect a recession in [----]. At this time last year 70% of economists as well as the Feds own staff expected a recession to start this year. I expect the perceived odds of a recession to continue to dwindle in the first half of [----] before surging to 100% in the second half of next year. An economic phase transition is coming and it will start when investors least expect it"
X Link 2023-12-21T13:48Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements

"Recessions are becoming less common"
X Link 2023-12-24T23:14Z [----] followers, 110.8K engagements

"Based on the historic relationship with bank lending standards commercial and industrial loans to businesses will be down 10% by the second half of [----] which normally only happens during recessions"
X Link 2023-12-26T14:50Z 23.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Are higher interest rates having a significant dampening effect on growth It is striking that the only sector that has not seen a substantial decrease in job openings is construction arguably the most interest-sensitive sector of the economy"
X Link 2024-01-03T18:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Dont let the low unemployment rate fool you. When the economy is near full employment falling labor demand will mainly show up in the form of lower job openings. And according to @linkup job openings took another plunge down in December"
X Link 2024-01-06T02:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Its true. Our model soured on stocks towards the end of December. BCAs quant model downgrades stocks questions duration of 'soft landing'"
X Link 2024-01-06T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Social media has been a disaster for kids. Child and adolescent mental health has declined even as social indicators of well-being have improved (higher high school graduation rates less substance use less food insecurity etc.). https://t.co/j7ymQFALmS HT @JonHaidt https://t.co/orZN55HxPX Child and adolescent mental health has declined even as social indicators of well-being have improved (higher high school graduation rates less substance use less food insecurity etc.). https://t.co/j7ymQFALmS HT @JonHaidt https://t.co/orZN55HxPX"
X Link 2024-01-07T13:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"I couldnt agree more. This is my favourite podcast by far. Thanks so much https://t.co/i5V7dCm8VF Thanks so much https://t.co/i5V7dCm8VF"
X Link 2024-01-08T18:04Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"Investors are increasingly betting on a soft landing. I agree that a soft landing can be achieved but I doubt that it can be maintained for very long. As evidence note that there has never been a case where the unemployment rate has fallen to very low levels and stayed there"
X Link 2024-01-08T18:43Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"Facebook is often cited as a classic example of self-reinforcing network effects. But in reality Facebook usage is dropping. It turns out that fashion is also important. And fashion is fickle"
X Link 2024-01-17T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"If the surge in inflation during the pandemic was entirely due to adverse supply shocks profit margins should have fallen. Instead they soared. Was it all "just supply" that caused inflation Fed governor Chris Waller is not having it. "If these are temporary supply shocks when they unwind the price level should go back to where it was. It's not. Go to Fred. Pull up CPI. Look at that thing." https://t.co/0hpUG9Kjhw Was it all "just supply" that caused inflation Fed governor Chris Waller is not having it. "If these are temporary supply shocks when they unwind the price level should go back to"
X Link 2024-01-19T02:38Z [--] followers, 42K engagements

"As the charts below show labor demand can fall even if the unemployment rate doesnt rise"
X Link 2024-01-19T15:45Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"I expect the S&P [---] to bottom out at around [----] during the next recession which is likely to begin towards the end of [----]. Although this target may seem overly pessimistic it is simply based on the assumption that the forward P/E drops to [--] slightly above the average of [----] between [----] and [----] a period which did not even encompass a recession and the assumption that 12-month forward earnings estimates fall by 10% from current levels. Such a decline in earnings estimates would not be out of line with what transpired during past recessions and perhaps may even be somewhat optimistic"
X Link 2024-01-27T16:19Z [----] followers, 11.6K engagements

"For an economy its size China has a fairly small and illiquid stock market. If the authorities want higher stock prices my guess is that they will get them. Xie Xiaobing head of the SASAC's property rights administration bureau said today that "China's manager of assets owned by the central government will start evaluating business leaders based on stock market performance to align stakeholder interests." https://t.co/zMk10NfVZy Xie Xiaobing head of the SASAC's property rights administration bureau said today that "China's manager of assets owned by the central government will start"
X Link 2024-02-01T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The US consumer is in great shape except that credit card delinquencies are at their highest level since [----] (when the unemployment rate was 8%) credit card interest rates are at record highs banks are increasingly unwilling to make consumer loans pandemic savings have been largely wiped out and the savings rate is half of what it was in 2019"
X Link 2024-02-25T06:04Z [----] followers, 34.7K engagements

"Stocks typically perform best when unemployment is high rather than low. This is partly because valuations tend to be more stretched when unemployment is low but it is also because the unemployment rate is a very mean-reverting series. Once it gets down to very low levels it usually starts to rising again. Will this time be different"
X Link 2024-02-27T22:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"New homebuyers and especially first-time buyers are being squeezed on both sides: high home prices and high mortgage rates. Not good for the economy and not good for Joe Biden who needs support from younger voters in November"
X Link 2024-03-02T01:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Economically its not difficult: Cut spending and/or raise taxes while reducing interest rates to neutralize the resulting drag on growth. Politically well thats a different story The best solution I've heard (grow the GDP faster than debt) looks impossible to me. Has anyone smart EVER suggested a way out What do our top bankers say The best solution I've heard (grow the GDP faster than debt) looks impossible to me. Has anyone smart EVER suggested a way out What do our top bankers say"
X Link 2024-03-03T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"As a percent of consumption personal interest payments have jumped by more than one percentage point from their recent lows. Credit card interest rates are at record highs pandemic savings have been largely exhausted and banks have become less willing to lend. Danger"
X Link 2024-03-04T01:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Looks like we are down to the Magnificent [--] now. new relative lows for all of them today https://t.co/16VB2x7gxB new relative lows for all of them today https://t.co/16VB2x7gxB"
X Link 2024-03-07T02:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"At its peak in March [----] Cisco traded at 37-times trailing sales making it the most valuable listed company in the world. Since then Cisco's earnings-per-share have increased nearly tenfold with sales-per-share rising almost as much. Yet the stock remains 39% below its [----] highs. As I write this Nvidia is also trading at 37times sales"
X Link 2024-03-08T01:01Z 21.2K followers, 60.1K engagements

"Investors keep whistling by the graveyard when it comes to CRE. Multifamily RE is next. Huge wave of supply about to hit the market there. The Loews Hotel in downtown Minneapolis has just sold at shocking 65% 'discount' The [---] room landmark hotel sold for $23.5M or $93k per room What did it sell for in [----] $65M or $257k per room The hotel will be rebranded as The Lofton Hotel For the latest updates on the https://t.co/0mMqsIyYWb The Loews Hotel in downtown Minneapolis has just sold at shocking 65% 'discount' The [---] room landmark hotel sold for $23.5M or $93k per room What did it sell for"
X Link 2024-03-09T01:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"Big if true. Remember that deflation is the easiest economic problem in the world to solve. People like to spend money. Just give them more money. And if they save too much of the money give them more money. In my latest piece I explain why I expect Beijing to turn to demand-side stimulus in Q2 or Q3 in the form of a one-off income transfer to the household sector most likely to be funded by a Beijing bond deal. https://t.co/GSkUkKfCGi In my latest piece I explain why I expect Beijing to turn to demand-side stimulus in Q2 or Q3 in the form of a one-off income transfer to the household sector"
X Link 2024-03-10T01:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The corporate default rate would need to drop to below 4% to justify the current level of high-yield spreads. Its unlikely this would happen even in a soft-landing scenario. Complacency"
X Link 2024-03-11T01:27Z 22K followers, 14.7K engagements

"The difference of course is that you can live or work in a building so there is a use case for valuing it. Bitcoins value is derived entirely from the hope that others will continue to see it as valuable. People refer to #BTC as currency or digital currency and thats an unfortunate historical artifact. Its digital property says $MSTR Founder & Chairman @saylor. https://t.co/1I15H8F04A People refer to #BTC as currency or digital currency and thats an unfortunate historical artifact. Its digital property says $MSTR Founder & Chairman @saylor. https://t.co/1I15H8F04A"
X Link 2024-03-13T10:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"The pass-through of monetary policy to the real economy is faster in Canada than the US. Canada is the canary in the coal mine"
X Link 2024-03-15T11:20Z 11.2K followers, [----] engagements

"@genericecon Canadian households are living on borrowed time. Mortgage rates are rapidly resetting to higher level"
X Link 2024-03-15T11:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

"I focus more on wage growth than price inflation to gauge the temperature of the economy. Indeeds series on posted wage growth is an excellent leading indicator for realized wage growth. It suggests that the labor market is cooling"
X Link 2024-03-15T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

"I dont find this Goldman take especially reassuring. OK perhaps tech stocks are not in a bubble. But they werent in a bubble in [----] either. They are still expensive and hence will still go down a lot if theres a recession. The forward P/E of the [--] largest TMT stocks peaked at 52x in [----] and 43x in [----]. Today they trade at just 28x forward earnings. Goldman Sachs https://t.co/pstzTcqwoy The forward P/E of the [--] largest TMT stocks peaked at 52x in [----] and 43x in [----]. Today they trade at just 28x forward earnings. Goldman Sachs https://t.co/pstzTcqwoy"
X Link 2024-03-17T12:20Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Goldman: Higher immigration explains much of the recent increase in the unemployment rate"
X Link 2024-03-18T11:36Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements

"I would like congratulate the University of Toronto. Over the course of my life no matter where I move within three months they have figured out where I am and are hitting me up for donations. Better than the CIA"
X Link 2024-03-19T11:16Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements

"Italy and Spain fared relatively well in [----] compared to Germany where growth was negative and France where growth was flat. That could change later this year given the wave of interest rate resets. The lags in monetary policy are about to bite"
X Link 2024-03-19T11:32Z 11.3K followers, 10.8K engagements

"In the history of modern finance no single indicator has done a better job of predicting when the next global recession will start than when the Bank of Japan starts raising rates. Foolproof"
X Link 2024-03-19T16:27Z 22K followers, 3.1M engagements

"Im always surprised which tweets gain traction and which do not. I wrote this tongue in cheek. Obviously theres no causal link between Japan raising rates by [--] bps and the rest of the global economy going down in flames. Its just that Japan has a habit of hiking rates towards the end of business cycle expansions. Which is arguably where we are now. In the history of modern finance no single indicator has done a better job of predicting when the next global recession will start than when the Bank of Japan starts raising rates. Foolproof https://t.co/mcq3cyiUSx In the history of modern finance"
X Link 2024-03-20T10:20Z 11.7K followers, 22.5K engagements

"A forward PE multiple of over [---] for chicken wings They should provide bubble tea with every order"
X Link 2024-03-22T12:36Z 13K followers, [----] engagements

"Theres a lot of talk about how China real estate market looks just as bad as Japans in the early 1990s. Thats simply not true. It looks a lot worse"
X Link 2024-03-22T20:50Z 11.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Theres a lot of talk about how China real estate market looks just as bad as Japans in the early 1990s. Thats simply not true. China looks a lot worse"
X Link 2024-03-22T22:30Z 11.7K followers, 13.2K engagements

"After spiking in early [----] disclosed AI investment has been trending lower for the last three quarters That doesnt sound very bullish. Source:"
X Link 2024-03-23T15:03Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements

"@kevinziyizhao OECD and"
X Link 2024-03-23T20:50Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements

"Theres a lot of misleading stuff from Mike Wilson here. First of all one shouldnt look at the evolution of earnings estimates in any given calendar year because analysts are notoriously overoptimistic. This means that even in good times earning estimates usually fall. Thats why most people look at 12-month forward estimates. In level terms they tend to be biased upwards but in rate of change terms they are not. And as the chart below shows they have been rising not falling. Second of all earnings tend to lag stock prices. Thus it is not correct to say that the stock rally will end when"
X Link 2024-03-26T16:17Z 11.7K followers, 15.4K engagements

"The personal savings rate dropped to 3.6% in February half of what it was in [----]. But with consumer credit growth slowing and excess pandemic savings largely exhausted consumers will have no choice but to tighten their belts 🥶"
X Link 2024-03-29T15:01Z 11.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The median price of new homes is falling and the pace of existing home price appreciation is slowing. Cause for concern"
X Link 2024-03-31T13:12Z 11.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Nvidia is trading at the same price-to-sales ratio as Cisco in [----]. Remember a good company is not always a good stock"
X Link 2024-04-02T12:03Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements

"The three-month average of permanent job losers continued to edge higher in March. Its a solid leading indicator for the labor market"
X Link 2024-04-05T13:58Z 12.3K followers, 26K engagements

"I had the pleasure to speak yesterday with WisdomTree CIO Jeremy Schwartz and Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel about the outlook for the economy and financial markets. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast/id1194707802i=1000651598693 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast/id1194707802i=1000651598693"
X Link 2024-04-06T11:47Z 13.3K followers, [----] engagements

"Contrarian take: The current inflation scare will fizzle out because unlike in [----] wage growth is falling. There cant be a wage-price spiral unless wages are spiralling"
X Link 2024-04-10T13:40Z 12.5K followers, 114.9K engagements

"Most investors think the US labor market is in great shape. But the problem is that theyre focusing on lagging or at best coincident indicators. In this weeks Global Investment Strategy report we examine more than a dozen LEADING indicators for the labor market. Bad news: Most of our indicators are flashing red including our very own Mel rule a less well known but much more timely version of the Sahm rule. Clients can access it here: https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/39970/gis https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/39970/gis"
X Link 2024-04-13T16:19Z 20.8K followers, 20K engagements

"Good to see that Erdogan and Bloomberg are on the same page. What If Fed Rate Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom - BNN https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/booming-us-economy-inspires-radical-theory-on-wall-street https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/booming-us-economy-inspires-radical-theory-on-wall-street"
X Link 2024-04-16T15:43Z 21K followers, 11.3K engagements

"Good point from @Claudia_Sahm. The increase in core services inflation has been very narrow concentrated in housing and auto insurance. Very different from what we saw in 2022"
X Link 2024-04-17T11:11Z 12.6K followers, 63.5K engagements

"Rising auto insurance premiums have pushed up inflation recently. Why is that Cars are more expensive to repair these days even after minor accidents (a problem that is especially acute for EVs). The weather has gotten worse with the number of hurricanes increasing. People are also driving more after the pandemic. But there are other more disturbing trends: Motor vehicle theft has more than doubled since [----]. Accidents are rising partly because people are looking at their cell phones when they should be driving and partly because the police are no longer enforcing traffic laws in many"
X Link 2024-04-17T13:11Z 12.6K followers, 12.5K engagements

"The rebound in global growth has been entirely driven by the United States. Whats wrong with everyone else"
X Link 2024-04-19T12:07Z 12.6K followers, 21.9K engagements

"Indices of existing home prices are plunging in China. The Chinese GDP deflator declined again in Q1. China is exporting deflation to the rest of the world. For now that is making the Feds job easier not harder"
X Link 2024-04-21T15:48Z 12.9K followers, 24.3K engagements

"Gold bulls beware: China has generally been price-sensitive in its strategic accumulation of natural resources. The fact that the PBOCs holdings of gold rose by just 0.2% in March the smallest increase since November [----] is evidence of that"
X Link 2024-04-22T20:26Z 12.9K followers, 10.4K engagements

"Outside of shelter healthcare and auto insurance inflation is running well under 2% OK before you say gee thats great as long as youre happy to be homeless dont drive and dont need any healthcare. But thats not the reason to exclude those three categories. The reason to exclude them is that they are all LAGGING components of the inflation basket. Auto insurance premiums are just catching up to the surge in new and used car prices during the pandemic. Shelter inflation is just catching up to the surge in asking rents. And health care inflation is just catching up to other prices (remember:"
X Link 2024-04-25T16:20Z 12.9K followers, 130.8K engagements

"Wage growth drives services inflation which is what the Fed cares most about. Wage growth is going down not up. This aint 2021"
X Link 2024-04-25T23:38Z 12.9K followers, 24.4K engagements

"The worlds second biggest economy is experiencing outright deflation"
X Link 2024-04-27T12:19Z 13.3K followers, 68.7K engagements

"Cooling water also looks stable until it freezes over. The gap between labor demand and supply is steadily shrinking. At the current pace labor supply will exceed demand by early next year at which point the unemployment rate will rise rapidly. A phase transition is coming. Much has been made of the strength of the job market but have you noticed how remarkably stable it has been. UI claims are low and have barely budged in months. Some 250k jobs are being consistently added to payrolls each month. And unemployment has been steadfast at below 4%. Much has been made of the strength of the job"
X Link 2024-04-28T13:57Z 13K followers, 16K engagements

"Multivariate Core Trend PCE inflation decreased in March though it remains above pre-pandemic levels"
X Link 2024-04-29T18:21Z 13.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Stocks rallied after the FOMC statement and then sold off. Not that surprising. As our MacroQuant model has been flagging since late March stocks have entered a phase where you want to sell on strength rather than buy on weakness. BCA clients can read yesterdays report here: https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/40077/gis https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/40077/gis"
X Link 2024-05-01T21:15Z 18.5K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Remember anyone betting on a soft landing is betting that the unemployment rate will simply move sideways from very low levels. Its never happened before"
X Link 2024-05-04T17:04Z 13.5K followers, 61.5K engagements

"US consumers are in such great shape that credit card rates are at record highs and delinquencies are back up to where they were in [----] when the unemployment rate was 8%"
X Link 2024-05-05T14:06Z 13.5K followers, 25.5K engagements

"BCA is the worlds leading provider of macroeconomic research for a reason. We used our kinked Phillips curve framework to predict the surge of inflation in [----] the immaculate disinflation of [----] and are now predicting that a US recession will start by early 2025"
X Link 2024-05-05T14:14Z 13.5K followers, 16.6K engagements

"Chinese home prices are dropping faster than in Japan after its own bubble burst"
X Link 2024-05-05T14:57Z 13.7K followers, 311.3K engagements

"For all the hyperventilating about how Japan is experiencing a currency crisis the yen has basically just tracked the spread in bond yields with the US"
X Link 2024-05-08T11:02Z 21.3K followers, 30.1K engagements

"Despite the fact that the yen is massively undervalued traders remain short the yen. A huge short-covering yen rally is coming"
X Link 2024-05-09T02:35Z 13.7K followers, 78.6K engagements

"The first quarter has seen abnormally hot inflation readings in the US over the past few years partly due to faulty seasonal adjustments. Get ready for some cooler inflation prints over the next few months. And lower bond yields"
X Link 2024-05-11T16:10Z 21.3K followers, 33.2K engagements

"The fall in inflation is perfectly tracking its earlier rise. We continue to slide down the steep side of the Phillips curve. All hell will break loose when we reach the kink later this year or in early 2025"
X Link 2024-05-15T22:02Z 13.7K followers, 22.3K engagements

"The Fed has used its get out of jail free card. With the price level back to its long-term target another inflation wave would unanchor long-term inflation expectations. Jay Powell wont take that risk. Investors should expect the Fed to be reactive rather than proactive"
X Link 2024-05-17T22:43Z 13.7K followers, 14K engagements

"Yes this time is different. Unlike in [----] there are no broad-based wage pressures. All that has changed is goods deflation has abated. US inflation surprises (including PPI Import Prices Prices Paid in ISMs) have been rising lately. Typically a harbinger of a broader pressure upcoming. Is this time different More - https://t.co/myea58nx0l https://t.co/5SiJ8i8HWk US inflation surprises (including PPI Import Prices Prices Paid in ISMs) have been rising lately. Typically a harbinger of a broader pressure upcoming. Is this time different More - https://t.co/myea58nx0l https://t.co/5SiJ8i8HWk"
X Link 2024-05-19T15:15Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements

"Yes this time is different. Unlike in [----] broad-based wage pressures are not intensifying. All that has changed is goods deflation has abated. US inflation surprises (including PPI Import Prices Prices Paid in ISMs) have been rising lately. Typically a harbinger of a broader pressure upcoming. Is this time different More - https://t.co/myea58nx0l https://t.co/5SiJ8i8HWk US inflation surprises (including PPI Import Prices Prices Paid in ISMs) have been rising lately. Typically a harbinger of a broader pressure upcoming. Is this time different More - https://t.co/myea58nx0l"
X Link 2024-05-19T15:18Z 13.8K followers, 21.1K engagements

"The US housing market is so tight that new home inventories are at their highest level since the pre-GFC bubble period. Remember it is new home construction that directly adds to GDP not sales of existing homes"
X Link 2024-05-27T20:52Z 13.9K followers, 40.8K engagements

"Most macro strategists be like:"
X Link 2024-05-27T22:06Z 13.8K followers, 14.1K engagements

"Non-market Imputed prices are propping up PCE inflation. If one only looks at market-based prices based on actual transactions inflation is running 0.3-to-0.5% percentage points lower"
X Link 2024-05-31T13:20Z 18.3K followers, 14.5K engagements

"Outside of retail where no one has built a shopping mall in years CRE vacancy rates are trending higher"
X Link 2024-05-31T20:21Z 14K followers, [----] engagements

"Job openings are collapsing; the Bloomberg Citi and GS economic surprises indices are all below zero; and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has cut its Q2 GDP growth estimate from over 4% in mid-May to 1.8% now (and only 1.3% if you exclude inventories). Frosty"
X Link 2024-06-05T00:36Z 18.6K followers, 37.6K engagements

"Prediction: This photo will be remembered as marking the top in Nvidias stock"
X Link 2024-06-05T15:01Z 16.5K followers, 199.1K engagements

"Standing back whats happening now is that job openings are being converted into jobs as new entrants join the labor market and those who lost their old job find a new one. The problem is that these job openings are not being replenished. This is why the unemployment rate is going up: Its becoming more difficult to find work. Unless the job openings rate stabilizes a recession will be hard to avoid"
X Link 2024-06-07T14:55Z 18K followers, 16.9K engagements

"Excluding shelter healthcare and auto insurance all examples of pandemic-related catch-up inflation CPI growth has been well below 2% for close to a year. Recession is now the main risk"
X Link 2024-06-12T12:55Z 14.2K followers, 29K engagements

"Although most US homeowners are immune from higher mortgage rates because they have fixed-rate mortgages thats not true for other types of credit. The delinquency rate on credit card loans is now the same as it was in [----] a year when the unemployment rate was over 9%"
X Link 2024-06-14T15:51Z 18.5K followers, 19.4K engagements

"Just a reminder: Strong growth today is no guarantee that a recession is not imminent. The US economy grew by 2.5% in in the fourth quarter of [----] just as the Great Recession was beginning"
X Link 2024-06-19T11:35Z 17.3K followers, 26.9K engagements

"In [----] I was one of the few strategists arguing that a US recession was not imminent. In [----] I predicted an immaculate disinflation which kept me bullish on stocks. Now Im turning increasingly cautious. My [----] S&P target is by far the lowest in the Bloomberg survey"
X Link 2024-06-20T16:36Z 17.3K followers, 219.4K engagements

"Fed rate cuts are NOT going to lead to lower interest interest rates for most borrowers. How come If you ever took an intro economics class you might remember being taught that if marginal cost is above average cost average cost will rise even if marginal cost is falling. The chart below shows that the average interest rate on the stock of all outstanding mortgages is well below the rate on new mortgages. Even if the interest rate on new mortgages declines the average homeowner is going to see their interest burden increase simply because a greater proportion of homeowners will be paying"
X Link 2024-06-24T14:53Z 21.1K followers, 17.8K engagements

"State-level unemployment rates are calculating in a more holistic manner than the national unemployment rate. BCAs Mel Rule mirrors the Sahm rule except that it is based on state data. The Mel Rule has now been triggered suggesting that a recession is likely"
X Link 2024-06-25T19:17Z 18K followers, 76.7K engagements

"The one thing that investors are not realizing about LLMs is that they have become increasingly indistinguishable from one another. They may end up functioning more like highly competitive airlines with thin profit margins rather than monopolistic social media platforms"
X Link 2024-06-26T03:54Z 17.3K followers, 21.4K engagements

"I hope this is a data error but LinkUps estimate of job openings posted by Americas top [-----] companies is crashing"
X Link 2024-06-27T13:38Z 17.8K followers, 58K engagements

"@peelpeelorange What would the unemployment rate be if there were zero job openings in the United States"
X Link 2024-06-27T13:48Z 16.9K followers, [----] engagements

"I agree Stocks will fall 30% as the U.S. economy heads for a painful recession strategist says https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-fall-30-as-the-u-s-economy-heads-for-a-painful-recession-strategist-says-a9f578e2reflink=mw_share_twitter https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-fall-30-as-the-u-s-economy-heads-for-a-painful-recession-strategist-says-a9f578e2reflink=mw_share_twitter"
X Link 2024-06-28T19:39Z 17.3K followers, 13.9K engagements

"Does this look like a healthy economy to you"
X Link 2024-06-29T14:40Z 18K followers, 221K engagements

"Its not just offices. Apartments retail and even industrial commercial real estate are seeing trouble. There will be more regional bank failures"
X Link 2024-06-30T13:55Z 21.3K followers, 81.7K engagements

"Fair and balanced Stocks could fall 30% as US heads for a deep recession analyst warns #FoxBusiness https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stocks-could-fall-30-us-heads-painful-recession-analyst-warns https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stocks-could-fall-30-us-heads-painful-recession-analyst-warns"
X Link 2024-07-02T04:06Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements

"Do you see the problem here"
X Link 2024-07-10T23:19Z 18.1K followers, 140.4K engagements

"Inflation is down and the labor market is stabilizing except that the unemployment rate almost never goes down and stays down. History"
X Link 2024-07-11T13:28Z 18.4K followers, 16K engagements

"The jump in inflation during the pandemic helped lift profit margins so will the subsequent drop in inflation reduce margins"
X Link 2024-07-11T14:53Z 22.4K followers, 12.2K engagements

"NVIDIA EPS estimates have fallen over the past [--] days. Are analysts finally figuring that all the leading LLMs are indistinguishable from one another and are more like airlines than monopolistic social media platforms"
X Link 2024-07-11T17:42Z 18.1K followers, 28.5K engagements

"Strong retail sales report today right Perhaps not. The chart below shows the change in core sales for every June since the data begins in the early 1990s. While retail sales growth was stronger-than-normal on a seasonally adjusted basis it was much weaker-than-normal without any seasonal adjustments. Hmm"
X Link 2024-07-17T00:00Z 21.5K followers, 23.8K engagements

"I think GS gets it backwards. Standard economic theory says that the deadweight loss from a tariff increases with the square of the tariff rate so that a 60% tariff what Trump is proposing against China implies an efficiency loss that is [--] times bigger than a 10% tariff"
X Link 2024-07-21T21:31Z 18.4K followers, 11.2K engagements

"Reality alert In the past the first Fed rate cut was a reliable sign that a recession was about to start. Will this time be different"
X Link 2024-07-23T22:54Z 22.3K followers, 80.4K engagements

"The layoff rate extracted from the Current Population Survey has begun to rise. Past increases in this series have always culminated in a recession"
X Link 2024-07-24T02:23Z 18.6K followers, 35.1K engagements

"Very strong GDP growth in Q2. Similar to growth in Q4 [----] right before the Great Recession began"
X Link 2024-07-26T02:35Z 21.3K followers, 45K engagements

"Morgan Stanley: Only 3% chance GDP will decline in [----]. Trust the science"
X Link 2024-07-31T10:21Z 20.8K followers, [----] engagements

"I love how when Nvidia sells a chip its a profit but when Microsoft buys a chip its capex"
X Link 2024-07-31T10:33Z 21K followers, 15.6K engagements

"Both initial and continuing unemployment claims are now notably above pre-pandemic levels. The soft landing is morphing into quicksand"
X Link 2024-08-01T13:16Z 21K followers, 18.2K engagements

"Fearing labour shortages companies overhired in [----] and [----] causing output per worker to drop. Now productivity is recovering. So far no evidence of a productivity renaissance"
X Link 2024-08-01T13:55Z 20.1K followers, [----] engagements

"The BOJ strikes again. The Godzilla of central banks. In the history of modern finance no single indicator has done a better job of predicting when the next global recession will start than when the Bank of Japan starts raising rates. Foolproof https://t.co/mcq3cyiUSx In the history of modern finance no single indicator has done a better job of predicting when the next global recession will start than when the Bank of Japan starts raising rates. Foolproof https://t.co/mcq3cyiUSx"
X Link 2024-08-02T02:46Z 21K followers, 99.4K engagements

"Clients can access the entire report here: https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/pdf/40535/bca.gis_wr_2024_07_18.pdf https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/pdf/40535/bca.gis_wr_2024_07_18.pdf"
X Link 2024-08-02T13:15Z 20.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The heated online debate now about whether one should use two or three decimal places in calculating the Sahm rule is a good reminder for why it is ridiculous to focus on a single indicator with an arbitrary cut off. From our end June MacroQuant model update:"
X Link 2024-08-02T13:34Z 20.8K followers, [----] engagements

"I hate to be a stickler but the Sahm rule was technically NOT triggered today. Unrounded it currently stands at 0.49337% just below 0.5%. The 0.53% you are seeing on FRED is what you get if you round all the past unemployment rates to one decimal point"
X Link 2024-08-03T01:24Z 21K followers, 46.8K engagements

"Outlook for the coming week Monday: Watching market developments closely Tuesday: Prepared to act Wednesday: [--] bps cut"
X Link 2024-08-05T03:42Z 20.9K followers, 13.2K engagements

"I know everyone is blaming the selloff in stocks on the Yen carry trade but the short vol trade is probably the bigger culprit"
X Link 2024-08-05T11:06Z 21.2K followers, 47.6K engagements

"After the recent selloff Microsoft is trading at a mere 40-times free cash flow. Booyah"
X Link 2024-08-07T04:17Z 21.2K followers, 24.3K engagements

"Do yourself a favor and spend [--] seconds looking at this chart and then ask yourself how likely it is that the unemployment rate will just move sideways from here"
X Link 2024-08-09T00:44Z 23.9K followers, 117.7K engagements

"@ekbharatiya506 The market is already pricing that in so if the Fed delivers on it it wont change long-term bond yields off which mortgage rates are set"
X Link 2024-08-10T15:14Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

"The hurricane alibi behind the surge in temporary layoffs in July is falling apart. CPS microdata shows that temporary layoffs FELL in Texas but surged in California. California is in big trouble. According to Paychex small business employment tumbled in the biggest state of the union in July. Nationwide small business employment was down for the first time in the series history outside of the pandemic"
X Link 2024-08-11T01:36Z 23.9K followers, 47.3K engagements

"If rising mortgage rates created a lock-in effect that kept homeowners from selling their homes wont falling mortgage rates reverse this effect leading to more supply and lower home prices The standard counterargument would be that those who sell their homes will just buy a different home somewhere else but I think this ignores the fact that increased transaction volume in an illiquid market could itself be a force in being prices back towards equilibrium"
X Link 2024-08-11T13:00Z 23.9K followers, 15.4K engagements

"Rising labor supply has not been the sole reason for the increase in the unemployment rate. Permanent job losers account for about half of the increase in the unemployment rate (based on the 3-month average to smooth out the noise)"
X Link 2024-08-12T02:14Z 23.9K followers, 63.2K engagements

"The past six months have seen a major increase in delinquency rates across much of the CRE sector. But dont worry this wont affect growth in the second half of the year at all"
X Link 2024-08-12T06:27Z 23.9K followers, 17.1K engagements

"@RochesterFX This shouldnt have affected the unemployment rate which is drawn from the household survey. In the household survey absences from work due to weather-related reasons do not affect ones employment status"
X Link 2024-08-12T09:24Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

"@UniqueWarg The economy is suffering from inadequate demand excess housing supply and deflation. Just give everyone who has more than two kids a free [--] bedroom apartment"
X Link 2024-08-13T01:15Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Nice pop in the NFIB survey this morning. The level is now consistent with a mere recession rather than a full-blown depression. Meanwhile economic uncertainty is at a post-pandemic high and a net 16% of respondents said sales declined over the past three months four points worse than in June. Great"
X Link 2024-08-13T10:50Z 23.8K followers, 19K engagements

"I should add that the pop in business optimism in July coincides with the post-assassination bump in Trumps polling numbers. Very similar to what happened in [----] when optimism soared after Trump won. Small business owners lean Republican. Wait until the August data comes out"
X Link 2024-08-13T11:08Z 23.9K followers, 69.6K engagements

"3m core CPI inflation ex shelter -0.3% at annualized rate. Core services ex shelter 0.9%. Fed behind the curve again. The chart below shows what lies in store after the Fed starts cutting rates in September 🐢"
X Link 2024-08-14T14:00Z 23.8K followers, 22.7K engagements

"Lots of strong economic data today so strong in fact that the Atlanta Fed had to cut its Q3 growth estimate by half a percentage point"
X Link 2024-08-16T01:40Z 23.9K followers, 44K engagements

"Down another [---] points today. So during this soft landing celebration week the Atlanta Feds GDPNow estimate falls by [---] points with the weakness concentrated in all the cyclically-sensitive parts of the economy (autos business equipment housing). Swell Lots of strong economic data today so strong in fact that the Atlanta Fed had to cut its Q3 growth estimate by half a percentage point. https://t.co/KVAKCGhLDm Lots of strong economic data today so strong in fact that the Atlanta Fed had to cut its Q3 growth estimate by half a percentage point. https://t.co/KVAKCGhLDm"
X Link 2024-08-16T15:03Z 23.9K followers, 23.9K engagements

"There is a one in four chance of a Democrat sweep in November. Kamala Harris pledges to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and stocks dont react one bit. Where is the efficient market hypothesis when you need it"
X Link 2024-08-19T20:03Z 23.9K followers, [----] engagements

"@TexasOncologist Only the personal income tax cuts expire. The corporate tax cuts were permanent"
X Link 2024-08-19T23:07Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

"What do you think is about to happen to construction employment"
X Link 2024-08-21T17:49Z 23.8K followers, 84K engagements

"I realize many people see initial claims as the holy grail of leading labor market indicators. However while they did a reasonably good job of predicting the [----] and [----] recessions they barely rose in advance of the 2008/09 recession"
X Link 2024-08-22T12:46Z 23.9K followers, 45.6K engagements

"Dont worry. It will all be okay 👌"
X Link 2024-08-23T15:46Z 23.8K followers, 18.7K engagements

"A new fiscal cliff In inflation-adjusted terms state and local government spending has added [----] percentage points to GDP growth over the past four quarters well above the average of [----] percentage points over the prior ten years. State and local governments have increased payrolls by nearly [-----] per month over this period six-times faster than average. Looking out state and local government spending is likely to slow significantly. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers state spending is expected to shrink by 6.2% in fiscal [----] after growing by 14.4% in fiscal"
X Link 2024-08-24T13:36Z 23.8K followers, 20.7K engagements

"@DannyDayan5 If Kamala Harris wins but the Republicans retain control of the House I dont think the latter will sign off on any major stimulus bill"
X Link 2024-08-24T15:08Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

"Are earnings estimates fake news Since December [----] the S&P [---] has risen 25% 12-month forward earnings estimate have risen 18% operating earnings have risen 5% but GAAP profits have increased less than 1%"
X Link 2024-08-27T20:44Z 23.8K followers, 49.3K engagements

"Will Nvidias stock go up or down after it reports If there is a strong consensus either way Ill put on the OPPOSITE trade. Up Down Up Down"
X Link 2024-08-28T18:21Z 23.8K followers, 11K engagements

"Is the tech construction boom ending"
X Link 2024-08-29T17:35Z 23.8K followers, 37.3K engagements

"Learn to code"
X Link 2024-08-30T02:21Z 24.2K followers, 1.9M engagements

"Real spending up 0.4% in July but real disposable income up only 0.1%. The savings rate is now less than half of what it was in [----]. Good thing households still have plenty of pandemic savings and arent facing rising delinquency rates on consumer loans. Oh wait"
X Link 2024-08-30T12:54Z 23.9K followers, 24.3K engagements

"@DannyDayan5 I hear you but excluding money market funds which are generally held by the wealthy bank deposits as a share of disposable income are back to pre-pandemic levels. For lower-income earners real bank deposits are below pre-pandemic levels"
X Link 2024-08-30T13:05Z 23.8K followers, [---] engagements

"I have been on the fence about whether manufacturing has begun a new down-leg but the latest ISM manufacturing print does point in that direction. Consumer durable goods spending is still elevated as a share of GDP. Given how much it overshot its trend it may need to fall quite a bit further to make up for all the spending on goods that was brought forward during the pandemic"
X Link 2024-09-03T17:32Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Many people look at job postings on Indeed as a guide to what we might see from the official JOLTS release later this morning. It is worth noting that while the overall level of job openings on Indeed has been stable for the past few months the number of NEW openings has been trending lower. This is worrying because new openings are arguably a cleaner measure of incremental labor demand"
X Link 2024-09-04T11:33Z 23.8K followers, 39K engagements

"The job openings rate has fallen to 4.55% just a whisker above the 4.5% rate that Fed Governor Christopher Waller has identified as the tipping point at which unemployment could surge if openings fall any further. Get out of stocks. Now"
X Link 2024-09-04T18:40Z 26.1K followers, 69.4K engagements

"Unemployment claims come in better than expected. Claims display strong seasonal patterns and normally decline at this time of the year. While initial claims are similar to where they were in recent years (ex pandemic) continuing claims still look slightly elevated"
X Link 2024-09-05T12:58Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The idea that payrolls actually grew by 142K in August is a stretch given ongoing negative revisions. In June payroll growth was originally reported as 206K. Two months later its down to 118K. It could easily end up below 100K"
X Link 2024-09-06T13:37Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"I keep hearing how the savings rate wont rise from multi-year lows because households have all this wealth. Putting aside the fact that some of this wealth is evaporating with a falling stock market the more substantive point is that real disposable income is up only 1.1% over the past year while real PCE is up 2.7%. So even if the savings rate stabilizes at its current very low level that still implies a [---] percentage point drop in consumption growth (and maybe more because income growth will probably slow further due to slower employment growth)"
X Link 2024-09-06T16:32Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"In its latest survey the NFIB revealed that a net 37% of firms reported lower earnings over the past three months the worst reading since the Great Recession. Unlike most of the other indicators that investors follow this is a leading indicator for the stock market"
X Link 2024-09-10T22:13Z 23.8K followers, 102.6K engagements

"CRE delinquencies are rising and spreading beyond the office sector. Soft landing morphing into quicksand"
X Link 2024-09-11T11:43Z 23.8K followers, 120.8K engagements

"Im curious to know what internal data they are looking at to generate such a bearish estimate"
X Link 2024-09-12T21:48Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The youth unemployment rate has risen [---] percentage points since January. Soft landing for everyone who still has a job"
X Link 2024-09-13T00:11Z 23.8K followers, 25.4K engagements

"Excluding the pandemic every recession over the past [--] years has been preceded by a sharp increase in oil/gasoline prices. The fact that gasoline prices are falling is thus encouraging (although my worry is that this may not be enough to counteract a weakening labor market)"
X Link 2024-09-15T16:01Z 23.8K followers, 11.8K engagements

"Inflation is a tax on personality types who dislike interpersonal conflict. Fight the power 🤓 My wife Christina Pattersons new paper (w/ her excellent co-authors @JADHazell @ChenLian92 @jptguerreiro) is now out at @nberpubs so Im excited to share more about what I (biased though I am) think is a very nice insight on the nature of inflation and why people hate it (1/n) https://t.co/GV6QRJiWML My wife Christina Pattersons new paper (w/ her excellent co-authors @JADHazell @ChenLian92 @jptguerreiro) is now out at @nberpubs so Im excited to share more about what I (biased though I am) think is a"
X Link 2024-09-17T18:03Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The Fed cut rates by [--] bps today and penciled in another [--] bps of cuts by yearend. Will that ensure a soft landing I have my doubts. The Fed lowered rates by a cumulative [---] bps from January [----] to March [----] and the recession started one month later. Likewise the Fed cut rates by a cumulative [---] bps from September [----] to December [----] only for the Great Recession to begin in January [----]. Investors are hoping for a repeat of the 1994-95 episode where Fed easing paved the way for an economic boom. However there are at least three differences between now and then: First the 1994-95"
X Link 2024-09-18T23:01Z 23.8K followers, 48.8K engagements

"Adjusting for upward biases to the measurement of job openings the Minneapolis Fed finds that the labor market is significantly looser than it was in [----]. The Fed was right to cut by [--] bps (but it probably is not enough)"
X Link 2024-09-19T22:47Z 23.9K followers, 30.9K engagements

"I must admit I am having a hard time squaring the low initial claims data with headlines like this. Are people just joining the gig economy when they get laid off rather than filing for unemployment insurance"
X Link 2024-09-20T11:50Z 23.8K followers, 65K engagements

"Remember when transports were considered to be good leading indicators for the economy and financial markets. Yep those were good times"
X Link 2024-09-20T16:25Z 23.8K followers, 88.3K engagements

"The employment-to-population ratio for full-time workers is now falling rapidly. Keep cutting Jay"
X Link 2024-09-20T17:21Z 23.8K followers, 25.8K engagements

"I love how they had to use their own estimates to reach that conclusion because actual trailing earnings growth still looks like crap. "We believe the key difference between this easing cycle and past cycles is the profits trajectory. Historically profits have almost always been decelerating as the Fed first cuts rates but thats not the case today." - BofA Savita https://t.co/otqJPYthzz "We believe the key difference between this easing cycle and past cycles is the profits trajectory. Historically profits have almost always been decelerating as the Fed first cuts rates but thats not the case"
X Link 2024-09-21T15:40Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"The number of people working part-time who would rather be working full-time is increasing. Notice what usually happens next when this series starts rising"
X Link 2024-09-21T15:54Z 23.8K followers, 78.8K engagements

"The Conference Boards labor market differential fell again in September. Notice those gray bars that always appear when the differential starts falling No doubt this time will be different"
X Link 2024-09-24T15:42Z 23.8K followers, 32.3K engagements

"When it comes to China the only chart that matters is this one which shows that Chinas working-age population is set to shrink by 70% by the end of the century. Stimulus efforts that focus on housing are bound to fail because there are already way too many homes"
X Link 2024-09-26T12:27Z 23.8K followers, 44.8K engagements

"Transitions from employed to unemployed were rising. You wont believe what happened next"
X Link 2024-09-26T23:23Z 23.8K followers, 51K engagements

"Nick Timiraos mentions a point I have been emphasizing lately which is that average borrowing rates will probably rise next year even if the Fed is cutting rates. If you ever took a first-year economics class you will recall learning that if marginal cost is above average cost average cost will rise even if marginal cost is falling. Its the exact idea same thing with interest rates"
X Link 2024-09-27T11:36Z 23.8K followers, 62.1K engagements

"Link: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/lower-interest-rates-economy-soft-landing-fb3039d2st=dFFHZL&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/lower-interest-rates-economy-soft-landing-fb3039d2st=dFFHZL&reflink=article_copyURL_share"
X Link 2024-09-27T11:38Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"@TronCarter13 Earlier tweet had typo. I have been bearish for three months"
X Link 2024-09-27T12:17Z 23.8K followers, [---] engagements

"The Chinese government had no choice but to act this week. Housing starts are down 70% from their peak. Completions are down only 11% because the government has been arranging financing for property developers to enable them to finish previously stalled projects. Once that pipeline of old projects is cleared out housing construction will plunge. What we saw this week was not a frontal assault to boost growth. It was a rearguard action to prevent economic collapse"
X Link 2024-09-27T13:22Z 38.9K followers, 22.8K engagements

"Mortgage refinancing has picked up but mortgage applications for purchase are still dead in the water. Maybe the fact that real home prices are more than 20% higher than before the pandemic has something to do with it"
X Link 2024-09-29T18:19Z 23.8K followers, [----] engagements

"Im seeing a lot of stuff about how construction job openings surged in August. I would certainly hope thats true given the decline in mortgage rates. But the JOLTS series is very noisy and is not consistent with the much smoother Indeed series"
X Link 2024-10-02T11:34Z 23.9K followers, [----] engagements

"Great ADP report. Payrolls down [------] on a non-seasonally adjusted basis the worst September in the history of the series"
X Link 2024-10-02T17:59Z 23.6K followers, 112.5K engagements

"@Space_Elon_1 As I understand it the historical data was also revised per the new methodology"
X Link 2024-10-03T11:30Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

"I keep hearing how income growth is strong umm no real disposable income was up less than 1% annualized between May and August. And thats not a fluke. Its a consequence of the fact that the employment-to-population ratio for full-time workers is falling which only happens in the early stages of recessions"
X Link 2024-10-03T12:52Z 23.9K followers, 24.1K engagements

"Temp employment an excellent leading indicator for recessions continues to normalize. In fact it has normalized all the way back to [----] levels. Lets hope it doesnt keep normalizing tomorrow"
X Link 2024-10-03T18:39Z 23.9K followers, 26.8K engagements

"@Maynard29Jim Thats a valid point. There has probably been a secular shift away from temp work towards gig work"
X Link 2024-10-03T19:25Z 23.9K followers, [---] engagements

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