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@yieldsearcher "@BigMoonKR Preach. And if TPTB wants to blow up Tether better do it soon before they pump it up with strategic reserves et al. Part of my US altcoin thesis is because of this Tether risk"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 19:56:56 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"I find it noteworthy that the TGA balance as of Wed stands at $312b virtually unched from the $311b level at the time of the OBBBs passage two weeks ago. Suggests to me that the NY Fed and Treasury appear to be controlling the pace of the TGA refill likely in response to the slightly elevated SOFR. Will be interesting to see whether this dynamic shifts next week now that stablecoin issuance can ramp up with the Genius Act set to become law tomorrow"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 20:10:11 UTC 10.6K followers, 2999 engagements

"Have a feeling that CPI and retail sales will be very correlated this wk (hot CPI = hot RS and vice versa) but with opposite mkt reaction to each"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 12:34:42 UTC 10.6K followers, 2097 engagements

"@RachelL11179070 I am genuinely curious what finally led you to dip into altcoins. I remember you telling me of difficulty in doing TA in these thinly-traded instruments"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-20 22:21:17 UTC 10.6K followers, 2981 engagements

"There is a good debate to be had about how high the tariffs will be but I am a bit amused when I come across folks here who think tariffs will be a nothingburger. Watch his interviews from the 80s - the two issues he never deviated from are immigration and the trade balance"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-09 00:49:17 UTC 10.6K followers, 2515 engagements

"Think of all the regulation equities have. S-1 for IPOs Def 14A for merger/proxies 10q/K for filings etc. Securities laws are several fold stricter than commodities. If you have a crypto project and it is a security you have a lot more compliance requirement and more importantly can be sued at any pt if you somehow run afoul do such securities laws. Think of how long Ripple had to fight this labeling (won at the lower court; now up to the SEC to appeal)"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 23:35:17 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"@monetarycomm Yup. Esp considering the split is not even 50/50. Services consumption is 70%+. And people notice big ticket px change far more meaningfully than X packs of clorox wipe going up XX% from $X to $12"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 03:50:51 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Alongside goods inflation has anyone noticed immigrant deportation has not done much to stop deflation in homebuilding sector one of the biggest consumers of immigrant labor (beside agriculture) #2 Lennar reported a X% yoy decline in their new home sales px back in June"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 11:50:56 UTC 10.6K followers, 2780 engagements

"Vol control is hedge funds biggest enemy when it pays to be contrarian"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:57:10 UTC 10.6K followers, 2080 engagements

"@7777SHK7777 I would side with utility over memeco but I would not be shocked if this admin has a unique plan for Trumpcoin"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 22:23:12 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Worth highlighting AHE and hours worked were misses too. Clearly softening. While not recessionary (very important) this will have a negative impact on US corporates ability to pass thru tariff-driven price increases this summer. AHE: MoM: +0.2% vs +0.3% cons (+0.4% prior) Hours worked: XXXX vs XXXX cons (34.3 prior)"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-03 13:00:10 UTC 10.6K followers, 2585 engagements

"One can argue whether this case on Fed renovation is meritless or not but what seems certain to me at this stage is that July FOMC presser is gonna be lit with or without Powell"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 21:39:55 UTC 10.6K followers, 2100 engagements

"When the nations biggest private employer and the most efficient retail operation is cutting frontline staff worth a ponder about what this means for Corporate Americas tariff pass-throughs. One month left before retailer earnings season starts"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 22:11:55 UTC 10.6K followers, 2648 engagements

"Read the last sentence. We may get clarity on Tether and strategic crypto reserve policies from this report"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 21:33:17 UTC 10.6K followers, 6661 engagements

"@PaulSantucci1 JPY(USDJPY) is moving downward meaning yen is appreciating. I think I should stick to appreciation/depreciation going forward"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 14:18:16 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Repo crisis would be very negative for gold yes. But then again no one escapes repo crisis except cash bond and dollars. But after that monetary reset and we rip. Crash then moon is the pathway I foresee. It is possible (though prob unlikely) we skip the crash part straight to the reset"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 23:31:43 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"@hell_inflection @dons_korea Finite in quantity with high cost of implant (though I understand Korean hair implant is state of the art). Every strand of hair is worth more than gold to me at this stage"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 15:44:01 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Correct. Tether is not compliant and unlikely to be. Sooner or later every institution and US market is going to use Genius Act compliant stablecoins and leave Tether behind. Question to me is whether the US tries to crack it down to punish bad actors (north korea russia iran) for national security reasons or they let Tether slowly run off until they run out of reserves to cover"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 23:39:18 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"Well GDP is still positive thru 6-7% deficit spending. Private sector and consumers are pinched but not recessionary. As long as GDP is growing and AI future growth prospect remains unbroken the mkts faith in the equities will stay intact. The risk is really on the bond/repo mkts ability to handle the deficit/Treasury issuance"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-03 15:02:50 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"When Japan June PPI missed you knew this miss on exports and trade balance was coming. (Note: XX% decline in exports to the US is not surprising but X% decline in exports to China is a big tell on how RMBs relative depreciation against non-dollar fx is helping China against other exporting nations)"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-16 23:58:16 UTC 10.6K followers, 5881 engagements

"The labor data this wk should be interesting. Hopefully ADP and NFP converge (but which way) ADP (7/2) - Mar: +155K - Apr: +62K - May: +37K NFP: (7/3) - Mar: +120K (revised from +185K) - Apr: +147K (revised from +177K) - May: +139K - Consensus for June: +120K"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-06-30 01:25:55 UTC 10.6K followers, 1986 engagements

"The stagflation of the 1970s occurred because of the two unique factors (alongside the Feds loose policy). (1) Big jump in oil price (energy demand is highly inelastic) and (2) inflexible labor mkt (unions) that made wage growth much more sensitive to future inflation expectation rather than normal supply/demand (hence we saw wage growth supporting inflation despite high UR) We have a very different labor market today than in the 70s. Wage growth is the make or break component of this inflation/deflation debate. No wage growth = no inflation (unless crude pops up)"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 12:33:02 UTC 10.6K followers, 4551 engagements

"Not that I see labor mkt breaking (difference between slowdown and recession) but worth highlighting that in Jan (the last month with a double digit increase in payroll tax) NFP came in below est. (+143K initial/111K final vs 175K est) and significantly slowed down from Decs 307K"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 23:03:41 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"The post-COVID asset allocation decision remains one of the most consequential factors affecting many peoples net worth. What seemed like prudent financial advice at the time - over-equitized home purchase - has in hindsight come with significant opportunity cost compared to investments in equities and cryptos. And that is exactly what median Americans did"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 15:05:39 UTC 10.6K followers, 2928 engagements

"Some retail sales reports matter more than the others. June is not one of them. Not surprised by the markets meh reaction. The months that matter are (in descending order of importance) - Nov and Dec: holiday season (duh) - Jul and Aug: peak summer travel-related spendings/back to school shopping and Amazon Prime Days - May: Graduation season / Mothers Day and Memorial Day sales"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 13:33:56 UTC 10.6K followers, 1949 engagements

"$2.7t is the target bank reserve level at which the Fed according to Waller plans to stop QT. As of last wk the combined balance of the TGA RRP and bank reserves stood at $3.9t. Assuming $850b goes to the TGA and $2.7t remains with the banks that leaves roughly $300b of incremental T-bill/deficit absorption capacity within the domestic financial system. That equates to 2-3 months worth of deficits = Aug-Sep which is also when US expects to fill up the TGA. In other words the US govt has that much time to find new sources of T-bill demand before it must rely on the Feds SRF. Since tapping the"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-10 17:37:48 UTC 10.6K followers, 2400 engagements

"I have been getting pretty robust feedback on my various posts about PPI (really appreciate the interest) and I am realizing there are some important nuances in the US PPI figures that are worth pointing out: X. The US PPI is quite unique compared to most other countries in that it is very heavily weighted towards services. In almost every other nation the PPI is entirely goods-based. In contrast the US PPI is XX% weighted toward services (80% for core PPI). This composition structurally dilutes much of the inflationary impact of tariffs on goods. X. In most countries (including China) the"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 00:50:30 UTC 10.6K followers, 10.6K engagements

"TGA targeting $500b by end of July and $XXX by Sep. We start at $313b before the OBBB passage so we are looking at about $180b/month pace over the next three months. Worth noting in 2023 it took five months (May thru Oct) to refill TGA from $50b to $800b or about $150b/month"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-09 01:19:26 UTC 10.6K followers, 5412 engagements

"@TetonMike It is not a foolproof thesis yet as we still need to fill initial conditions that create the initial spark that sets things in motion. That may require resolving the tariff inflation vs. deflation debate and a significant tweak in the QRA down the line"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-20 22:19:29 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Apparently Monday is Japans mkt holiday. Guess we will have to wait for the locals reaction tomorrow night. Mkt pretty flat so far"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-20 23:37:08 UTC 10.6K followers, 3266 engagements

"@liquidatedx I do lean marginally on the cautious side because of jpy and gold. But Bitcoin holding firm tells me there is still liquidity in the system"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 15:07:41 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"@JunDo1050 I wouldnt say recessionary. Hard to have a recession with X% gdp deficit spending. But do I see deflationary trends having adverse impact on corporate margins and risk asset pricing Yes I do. (Obv timing is tbd)"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 14:57:18 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Not that I see labor mkt breaking (difference between slowdown and recession) but worth highlighting that in Jan (the last month with a double digit increase in payroll tax) NFP came in below est. (+143K initial/111K final vs 175K est) and significantly slowed down from Decs 307K. But I am genuinely curious why the spike in Jan which may also be applicable to July"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-14 23:06:35 UTC 10.6K followers, 1070 engagements

"Despite a fair bit of TBill issuance surge this wk the latest TGA balance (as of end of this Wed) stands at $311b vs $313b last Friday (pre-OBBB passage) TGA refill has not yet started in earnest yet. In case you are wondering about plumbing liquidity as of right now"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-11 03:20:45 UTC 10.6K followers, 2596 engagements

"@B_radRiffs @judyshel She sure would be great. I am waiting on tonight for answers when Japanese get back to work"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 14:56:29 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"Todays GDP demonstrates how fiscal dominance hides big weakness in the private sector - Q3: $565b deficit (7.7% GDP annualized) brought GDP growth of XXX% - Q4: $711b (9.6%) brought XXX% growth So deficit rose by X% but GDP growth down by X% = X% contraction in the pvt sector"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-02-27 13:48:34 UTC 10.6K followers, 1039 engagements

"US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I wouldn't put too much emphasis on one inflation number. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: The Fed had big forecasting errors and there may be one now. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I haven't seen today's CPI figures yet"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-15 11:27:28 UTC 10.6K followers, 6578 engagements

"* No Trading Advice on JPM. Strictly trying to make an illustrative point on bank's increasing reliance on repo and ST borrowings JPMs Net Repo Liabilities + ST Borrowing: (negative = higher liabilities) Q3 2024: -$49b Q4 2024: -$55b Q1 2025: -$168b Q2 2025: -$190b"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-15 12:28:59 UTC 10.6K followers, 3058 engagements

"@pplsartofwar Fascinating. What are the key combat branches that are more aggressive/conservative than others"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-20 14:05:54 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@roninrhino My suspicion has def grown after this"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 18:10:26 UTC 10.6K followers, 13.1K engagements

"@JK99928789839 @BigMoonKR No blockchain can escape it fully honestly. But I am relying on Trumps MAGA put on US blockchains"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 01:19:03 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"Who knows but max $5b/mth unwind of Treasury is pretty symbolic at this pt (+$35b/month of MBS) But if you want an illustrative framework Reserves stand at $3.4t +$200b of RRP = $3.6t Of that $500b has to go fill the TGA. That leaves $3.1t left. If we use Wallers $2.7t as the limit that is $400b of TBills capacity that the domestic banking system can soak up. At $2trillion annual deficits (or $170b/month) that gives us at least X more months till QT ends"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 00:42:35 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"Subtle behavior change I just realized: Seldom carried water bottles to walk around the city before. Just bought water bottles if needed at nearby stores. Saw $XXXX (before tax) px tag on those bottles a couple months ago. Now I carry water bottles"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-20 14:15:59 UTC 10.6K followers, 9335 engagements

"Chinese 10Y yield chart. Two key dates that led to its precipitous decline over the past XX months - US election in Nov and Liberation Day. Showing some marginal signs of recovery from the trough lately but Chinese bond mkt is holding its breath for the final deal with the US"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 02:47:55 UTC 10.6K followers, 2034 engagements

"@AllVentured Agreed. Increase in household staples and apparels offset by decline in durables and travels. As long as personal income growth is limited we are just shifting mix from finite total consumption pie"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 03:21:35 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@dons_korea Have a friend who works in robotics in SV. Biggest issue is the long production iteration cycle. Things can take weeks to fix/upgrade new hardwares whereas in Shenzhen it takes XX hrs"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 01:54:26 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"Same yoy growth as Q1 but internals are more domestically oriented/higher quality (consumptions outpacing FAI and NX). NX contributes XX% of total GDP growth this quarter vs. XX% Trade balance as % of total GDP in Q2 is X% vs. X% in Q1"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-15 02:53:40 UTC 10.6K followers, 2699 engagements

"BTC rally this cycle began from Oct 2023 at $27K. The real catalyst that really drove this rally into hypergear was the spot ETF approval that came in Jan 2024 and institutional money started coming in. Genius/Clarity Acts may likely do the same for (select) altcoins"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:30:03 UTC 10.6K followers, 1816 engagements

"I mean if they are intent on pushing Powell out might as well go all in hell or high water and try to get this done by July FOMC. Key word being try"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 12:06:23 UTC 10.6K followers, 3224 engagements

"Reducing net except altcoins and gold. Want to see what Japanese have to say tonight and what Bessent does at the Fed this evening"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 19:58:40 UTC 10.6K followers, 5584 engagements

"TLDR: Housing (45% weighting in US Core CPI) is deflating with no labor tightness. Thank you for your attention to this matter"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 14:42:37 UTC 10.6K followers, 1700 engagements

"It basically disincentivizes folks from using Tether. TBD if US cracks them down hard (very good national security reasons to do so) that will cause some severe corrections in crypto near term or they try to gradually manage Tethers decline into irrelevance (which is the better economic argument). I do lean on the former and that affects my position sizing but does not affect my secular long term thesis"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 12:43:35 UTC 10.6K followers, 1186 engagements

"Ytd total return SPY: +7.7 QQQ: +10.1 IWM: +1.1 TLT: -XXX HYG: +5.0 BTC: +26 ETH: +6.4 XRP: +69 GLD: +27 SLV: +31 DAX (German equity in USD): +35 EWY (Korean equity in USD): +42 Foreign equity in USD even bigger outperformers than gold bitcoin and silver"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 12:55:57 UTC 10.6K followers, 2642 engagements

"Mainstream altcoins still have legs as we gonna get more regulatory clarity this cycle. Also by his same logic XRP is not a security either. The appeal should be dropped soon then"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 19:03:58 UTC 10.6K followers, 2553 engagements

"@metahacker_ I can be convinced that ETH will stand on its own at the end of this secular altcoin bull cycle but the global liquidity regime still runs on BTC"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 15:09:00 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"@Alimasubway $1.5b market cap for Fartcoin ($10b for Trump) I dont trade much memecoins. Just observing"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 20:51:40 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"I believe altcoins have room to enjoy the post-Genius Act secular honeymoon a bit longer. However (1) BTC being anchored (2) the JPY moving downward and (3) gold/silver outperformance are all signaling that some caution is warranted across risk assets"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 14:14:50 UTC 10.6K followers, 2235 engagements

"Worth noting that BTC is still trading $120K while altcoins are in the green. This suggests that much of the recent move may be driven by OG BTC holders rotating into ETH XRP and others. Hard to say whether this rotation is a prelude to the long-speculated Tether crackdown. However if there is one interest group in the US with more influence than the financial sector it is the national security establishment"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 13:22:28 UTC 10.6K followers, 3274 engagements

"@Alimasubway He is great. Esp these days gotta expand the art of the possible outcomes"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 20:45:40 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"@Bluemoon_SEON Nope. Who knows. But just relived my deja vu from gme craze"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 01:33:44 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"The second-derivative effect here is that a decline in highly discretionary cyclical goods and services eventually impacts employment negatively. Sectors like autos electronics and travel are far more sensitive - and employ more people - than consumer staples or apparel. At the end of the day what ultimately matters is aggregate personal income. Within a finite consumption pie an increase in the price of certain goods leads to substitution effects that offset spending elsewhere"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 03:35:18 UTC 10.6K followers, 2931 engagements

"All the recent altcoin craze has somehow escaped Trumpcoin (-87% from ATH) 🤔"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 20:41:42 UTC 10.6K followers, 53.1K engagements

"@phaedrus888 You referring to gold or risk assets in general"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 23:24:30 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"You trade paper gold for daily liquidity but physicals have a place in ones HODL portfolio imo. Yes gold will likely crash during a DXY squeeze or debt deflation. However such events should they occur will likely necessitate a monetary reset. Basel III implicitly suggests that physical gold revaluation is how banks will be recapitalized under such deflationary scenarios"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 13:52:21 UTC 10.6K followers, 3245 engagements

"Who in their normal mind have the nerve and disposition to not take a single penny of profit thru multiple cycles over XX yrs And then all of sudden decides to exit all at once This question is bothering me a little more than it should but is"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-18 18:07:54 UTC 10.6K followers, 354.2K engagements

"@planetbrady All those mass immigration and loose fiscal policies and they still doubled down on leftism. Not sure where that pt of snap is"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-20 23:34:14 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@FibonacciInves1 And that is XX% of core cpi"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-22 02:07:17 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@StevieGhandiz Mix of a number of major top blockchains but am weighted towards US ones cuz of tether risk. No memecoins (though Trumpcoin is one exception I get involved time to time)"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 20:34:07 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"@TheFoolishPig That I agree. Japanese pensions/insurance are different beasts altogether though"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 00:05:55 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"When the dollar is flush with liquidity you are correct. But once the trade balance declines and the current account surplus no longer generates enough dollars to sustain local monetary base growth a eurodollar shortage will become a thing. In the end the RoW's financial system runs on a 50-year accumulation of current account surplus dollars. That is the fundamental root of their monetary base. One exception is China. China has enough gold a manufacturing base that produces goods other countries want very little debts owed to foreigners and bilateral trade relationships with commodity-rich"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-17 05:01:01 UTC 10.6K followers, XXX engagements

"@RuneHSM That is a fair pt but altcoins are $1.6t market cap only. In the long run plenty of rooms to grow. I do expect some near term vol event coming in relatively short order. That affects my sizing near term. But not my long term secular thesis"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-21 19:29:03 UTC 10.6K followers, XX engagements

"QEs side effect is always the risk of inflation. After all QE is the Feds most powerful weapon against deflation. Whether QE actually causes inflation depends largely on the broader economic context - specifically whether we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment. This time the debate is obv on tariffs long term effect. It is worth highlighting two case studies btw: QE after the GFC did not lead to significant inflation because the world was recovering from one of the biggest debt-deflationary crises in history. Demand was constrained due to elevated unemployment and there was"
@yieldsearcher on X 2025-07-19 03:21:44 UTC 10.6K followers, 1401 engagements