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@yieldsearcher Avatar @yieldsearcher Mr. VIX

Mr. VIX posts on X about china, fed, deflation, japan the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and 1584 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Social category influence finance #1290 countries XXX% currencies XXXX% stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% automotive brands XXXX% technology brands XXXX%

Social topic influence china 0.69%, fed #239, deflation #25, japan #2051, rates #202, money 0.32%, currency #1125, inflation #342, stocks #3807, fomc XXXX%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ajacksonhole @thefoolishpig @tradfidiguy @bigmoonkr @planetbrady @fenrirfunds @zanjacquref @alimasubway @realjohngaltfla @jz281c @gjkingkong @mauiboymacro @lordpos3idon @pivotclearr @stockmomo @deflatedkingdom @gammablast @grimacemcdonal1 @stevieghandiz @gaybearres

Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Goldman Sachs (GS) United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"TPTB is not pretending anymore. Global merger between fiscal and monetary policies"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T13:26Z 14.9K followers, 3481 engagements

"@1leone @JunK_OperatoR Less liquidity getting withdrawn = positive for liquidity proxy and BTC is the purest expression of it"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T16:01Z 14.7K followers, XX engagements

"Need a crisis to justify such power"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T13:57Z 14.9K followers, 20.2K engagements

"Of course he cannot say anything to the contrary. No one ever publicly admits the intention to devalue the currency and let the market front-run it. But that said whenever the US leaders expressed such comments they tended to precede major FX disruption events. Like Rubin 97"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T19:10Z 14.8K followers, 4344 engagements

"@Gamma_Blast_ Bessent says you are welcome ;-)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T19:46Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@levenson_david Ah got ya. Yes there was certainly some intraday actions in the rates market. But compared to what we saw in the equities and PMs it sure felt relatively tame. But I hear you"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T01:35Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Middle America now skimping on pizzas 💀"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T13:16Z 14.9K followers, 20.1K engagements

"@PaulSantucci1 The cycle is turning. Bond bears do not realize this rate cut cycle is very different from Sep 2024 (which was indeed premature and I was a big bond bear back then)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T01:32Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"The man the myth the legend"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T12:36Z 14.7K followers, 3010 engagements

"JPY nearing XXX. Worth a reminder that between Apr and July last yr MoFJ spent $100b to defend JPY starting at around XXX. (Including $35b two-day intervention on 7/11-12 when JPY breached 160) That was the context behind 7/31 BoJ rate hike that led to the infamous 8/5 crash"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-07T19:22Z 14.8K followers, 14.8K engagements

"The 2Y is screaming a message if you care to listen. Alongside SOFR SRF KRE HYG IWM gold and cryptos"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T16:22Z 14.9K followers, 31.6K engagements

"Finance exam question: if I told you we would end the day with SPY -XXX% TLT +0.3% DXY -18bp Where would you say VIX was at"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T20:49Z 14.8K followers, 3381 engagements

"Swap spread = swap rates - Treasury Widening = Swap spread going positive or less negative Tightening = swap spread going more negative Under normal circumstances this should be a positive spread (swap carries counterparty risk). But dealer balance sheet constraints and lack of duration collateral to fully arb this gap against duration hedge demand are the key reasons why the swap spreads esp in the longer tenors are deeply negative. Basically I see swap spread as a measure of two things. (1) Demand to hedge/unhedge duration risk. Higher demand to hedge duration will lead to swap spread going"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T02:38Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@VaeVictis_VV There is a level at which there is reduced but still enough trade to have deflation and there is a level at which things stop and we have a global depression"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T04:01Z 14.8K followers, XXX engagements

"With this context below on what is happening in the auto loan space in mind I want to raise two additional pts: (1) The Manheim Used Car Px Index printed -XXX% mom for September third straight month of =0 print. Higher repo = more used-car supply = higher px pressure. Used cars carry meaningful weight in CPI. (though worth noting the Manheim figure reflects wholesale (PPI) rather than retail px so it may get reflected with a lag.) (2) A X% delinquency rate with 40-50% recovery translates into 2.53.0% net losses. With avg auto loan interest rates at X% that implies a mid-5% net return just as"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-07T21:50Z 14.8K followers, 8517 engagements

"The next WWIII gonna be: My Skynet is better than your Skynet ☠☠☠"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T02:52Z 14.9K followers, 4776 engagements

"Decline in small business optimism is consistent with the latest ADP report. - Small enterprises (1-49 employees):-40K - Medium (50-499):-20K - Large (500+):+33K Keep in mind that Redbook Sales (+5.9% yoy latest) capture large retailer volumes but not mom-and-pops"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T23:32Z 14.9K followers, 3266 engagements

"Unlike China and Korea Japan has not undergone a societal upheaval that upended its class structure since 1868. MacArthurs (fateful) decision to keep Emperor Hirohito and many wartime elites in place laid the foundation for the modern triarchy of conglomerates the LDP and a MoF-led bureaucracy. Many in the LDP leadership still trace their lineage back to the elites of that period. Hence the relatively wider disconnect between Japans political elite and its citizens"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T15:14Z 14.7K followers, XX engagements

"Since 9/30: we saw liquidity injection from $40b RRP + $70b TGA = $110b. SOFR fell just 4bp still 5bp above IORB. This delicately tight repo situation is why Treasury vol must stay low - any sharp collateral moves risks funding for lenders (long) and borrowers (short)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-03T12:32Z 14.8K followers, 12.4K engagements

"It used to be that the first warning signs in the market came through HYG and IWM. But with the proliferation of PE and PC we now have a new layer at the lower end of the quality spectrum to watch. And the barbarians are circling those gates"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-03T01:14Z 14.8K followers, 17.9K engagements

"Hence no NFP for us 😂"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T16:03Z 14.9K followers, 2679 engagements

"Prob why no one takes profits these days. Cash is trash + you pay taxes (gotta hold these till Jan 1) + what are you going to buy with those sales proceeds"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T21:24Z 14.8K followers, 7646 engagements

"Going to bed on a high note Gold +$30 2Y XXXX% (70bp below FFR) 10Y XXXX% Lets see what tomorrow morning brings. Several regional banks reporting"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T03:31Z 14.9K followers, 3535 engagements

"What stage 😂"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-12T19:00Z 14.9K followers, 6306 engagements

"A bit of trivia but something worth knowing. The X% inflation target is not as arbitrary as some think. There are many empirical studies suggesting that the long-term acceptable inflation range lies between X% and 3%. The X% upper limit exists because once inflation rises above that level bonds lose their countercyclical hedging capability as they begin to move positively with equities. Such positive correlation undermines the traditional balance of power between the two core asset classes in traditional finance and can bring much instability and distortion in the financial market. On the"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T03:00Z 14.9K followers, 8911 engagements

"Reflationary numbers out of NY. Solid numbers across new orders shipment employment and inventories. One thing that still remains soft is 6M capex plan. Hence manufacturers are waiting to see if this pickup has legs or is a brief respite"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T13:13Z 14.9K followers, 2864 engagements

"Another evidence of K-shaped economy seen from Delta Airline earnings. Note the quality dispersion amongst airline equities this yr. UAL +4% ytd DAL +0% LUV -X% AAL -XX% JBLU -42%"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T18:52Z 14.8K followers, 42.5K engagements

"You would be excused for thinking Japan had a self-sustaining energy and food supply if you took Katos words at face value"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T03:28Z 14.9K followers, 3206 engagements

"Regional bank earnings call this quarter should be interesting"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-07T23:36Z 14.9K followers, 4655 engagements

"What are the odds that Trump backs down after the escalatory step from China which will obv make him look weak The immediate next Trump tweet is not likely to be a market friendly one. Though mkt may be frontrunning that and pricing that in a bit"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T13:56Z 14.9K followers, 15.6K engagements

"I am not looking for a redux of the 2019 repocalypse per se. The plumbing system is being monitored much more closely by the NY Fed than it was then and more importantly the Fed is aware of this issue. After all a $500b SRF backstop exists and if that is not enough they can expand it. The real issue is not in the funding market but in the end risk-asset markets. These are deploying record amounts of repo leverage with many trades so highly levered that they live and die by basis-point changes in price and/or funding costs. An external shock that forces unwinds in 30-100x levered Treasury"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T15:35Z 14.9K followers, 7543 engagements

"Better than expected but as I said before last yrs Mid Autumn Festival came in Sep (vs Oct this yr) so that will affect the absolute figure. (Oct this yr will be commensurately -ve). Also need to wait for a breakdown between exports to the US and to the RoW for full color"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T04:22Z 14.7K followers, 3550 engagements

"@Umbra_Mirrors @simplspark 😂 Point is to keep those two Skynets keep fighting as long as possible to delay the end of humanity"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T03:54Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"This Japanese account says the FX shop literally ran out of USD (and other currencies) to sell to retail. This is why Japan does not want USD/JPY above XXX. Capital flight is a thing as Japanese are rushing to buy hard currencies as fear of further depreciation mounts"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-06T12:53Z 14.9K followers, 88.6K engagements

"The silver shortage this time is different. The physical shortage we saw in gold earlier this year (and briefly in silver in July) was expressed through a blowout in the EFP (futures trading at a significant premium to spot). The curve moved into steeper contango because the shortage in London was a logistical bottleneck that could be resolved by procuring futures contracts at COMEX (New York) which had ample physical inventories. This time its different because there is simply no physical metal available. Hence the shortage is expressed through backwardation where spot prices shoot above the"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T01:54Z 14.7K followers, 8051 engagements

"Even without NFP the Fed has its own ways of gathering data (Greenspan famously tracked package/freight flows for a real-time economic pulse). Williams and Waller are dropping not-so-subtle clues about where they see the labor market heading"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-10T13:07Z 14.9K followers, 5442 engagements

"@Cessnadriver50"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T02:09Z 14.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Since the end of July: - Foreign banks cash assets -$380b - Domestic banks cash assets (large + small) +$20b Demonstrating that offshore dollar liquidity is an even bigger pressure point than domestic repo"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-12T14:26Z 14.8K followers, 6839 engagements

"Yup. Noted. Obviously very tricky to precisely pinpoint why fx moves in a certain way. But noticing that xccy basis going negative which can potentially be the variable that ties together the lower dxy and a bull flattening curve on a risk off day (foreigners find hedged long bond holdings relatively less attractive)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T19:36Z 14.9K followers, 1603 engagements

"@Tyberious2100 That I agree. Why i initially thought he was going to pull the trigger back in April. But he needed mkt stability to cut tariff deals. Now is the perfext opportunity to use a crisis to get what he wants and blame the dems for negative repercussions"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T12:41Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"@Alimasubway Data dependency regime requires him to look at what the numbers say not prognosticate about what the trade war will do to the economy. But someone will ask that and I am curious how he answers it"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T12:27Z 14.8K followers, XXX engagements

"As far as it relates to U.S. PPI and CPI all you need to see is in the red box. Continued deflation in consumer durables + tempered disinflation in clothing and consumer staples = China continues to export deflation to the world and the US"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T01:51Z 14.9K followers, 9134 engagements

"And back above IORB (4.15%). Scottie must have his TBills"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T12:50Z 14.9K followers, 2800 engagements

"Gotta love EUR and KRW still available over GBP and Thai Baht"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-06T12:56Z 14.8K followers, 3179 engagements

"@ShengenM True. But the end game is ZIRP. Pathway and timing tricky but deflation and QE are the endgames"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T10:49Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"@corgi_double The signs of vulnerability is there but I think given how much dollar assets foreigners have the bigger threat to the foreigners is mass dollar selloff first which destroys their dollar value against their local currency debt than a straightup dollar squeeze"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T02:00Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"Agreed there. Lot of interplay here and sequencing will be key to watch. A ton of bond bears out there so there is definitely fuel for fire once bond bid gets intensified. How this all interacts with banks' balance sheet capabilities during the rate squeeze is indeed the key to how the swaps will react. Always love these multi-variable calculus that bond market present"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T03:47Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"If you believe the mark sure"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-10T12:26Z 14.9K followers, 6060 engagements

"But before singing Kumbaya in Seoul with Xi Donnie and Scottie prob want to scare the living daylight out of the Fed into cutting 75bp on 10/29. I am half joking and half serious"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T20:04Z 14.9K followers, 4126 engagements

"In the end you have to save the housing (i.e. bond) market to win the 2026 midterm. Q remains whether they can pull that without sacrificing the equity market"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-07T20:42Z 14.8K followers, 7752 engagements

"I think his trading recs are for near term (which also include long equities) which I deem as separate from what his view of the economy is a yr from now (which is an eternity for guys like PTJ). This is not an uncommon stance from PMs I talk to. Bearish on economic fundamentals but still decently net long beta"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T12:24Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"Korean retails broke Citadel 😂"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T22:13Z 14.8K followers, 3625 engagements

"Market neutral positioning + high leverage meet rising funding costs and crowded borrows. A $50b AUM mkt neutral fund with 8-10x leverage = $400-500b gross mkt value. 1:1 long-short ratio implies $200-250b of shorts at any given pt. You can only short so much with $3.3t IWM"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-08T15:54Z 14.9K followers, 5439 engagements

"@Cincinnatus25 You are not devaluing against USD but USD is devaluing against the rest. So RMB is devaluing against the Row FX. Hence the trade surplus dominance"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T00:44Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"Reminder: Things can stay overbought or oversold far longer than your margin account can. Some of my worst trades were shorting overbought growth stocks and buying oversold value traps"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T13:24Z 14.9K followers, 3773 engagements

"Pretty massive inflow of foreign money into Korean equity market as KOSPI index rose XX% since August to $2t market cap (which by the way is less than half of NVDA)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T03:09Z 14.9K followers, 3197 engagements

"As JGBs are misbehaving again tonight (+4bps) it is worth noting that the market has been quietly voicing its concern as Japanese banks (-3%) are underperforming the broader NIkkei (+4%) significantly since the October X LDP leadership election"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T02:02Z 14.7K followers, 4556 engagements

"@fullfieldflicks I suspect a lot of this is about unwinding of the imbedded shorts in our system"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T00:12Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"The reason I believe in the impending big liquidity event (good or bad) is that we cannot afford not to have one soon"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T12:45Z 14.9K followers, 10.4K engagements

"@Spyder92495334 The irony is Dominos started catching on in NYC because local pizzaria started charging $30+. We all hitting Little Caesars now"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T13:19Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Fascinating read. Again confirming the dollar paradox (you do not get out of the matrix that easy)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T19:47Z 14.9K followers, 5887 engagements

"Spot the odd one out Gold bid Dollar bid Bond bid Equity bid"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T04:04Z 14.9K followers, 7977 engagements

"Looks like Japan has decided to sacrifice the yen to save the bonds"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-08T00:22Z 14.9K followers, 228.7K engagements

"Didnt see this coming. XXX + XX = XXX seat minority govt even with them (233 needed). Going to take a lot of efforts to invite new coalition partner to form a new govt. Theoretically should see some reversal of this wks fx and risk asset moves but will see"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-10T11:10Z 14.9K followers, 9472 engagements

"Australian bond market taking the US-China trade war very seriously. (For those lacking context Australia is the most China-dependent Western economy where XX% of its GDP comes from its exports to China. Never had a recession since 1991 because of it.)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T04:09Z 14.8K followers, 15.1K engagements

"That is not what the retail sales data from last month said (at least on the headline basis). So this is a new data pt. Mkt getting ready for Powell time in half an hr. Will see if he shares the same view"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T15:53Z 14.8K followers, 4676 engagements

"$UAL just posted its highest operating revenue in history. Yet TRASM (Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile) fell X% yoy (do I hear deflation Deltas TRASM which was flat yoy this qtr as well). The key offset: capacity (ASMs) grew X% which more than compensated for weaker unit revenue. On the cost side CASM ex-fuel declined X% showing efficiency gains at scale. This is classic supply-side economics in action as consumers benefit from lower fares while airlines benefit from economies of scale and lower unit costs. Deflation driven by demand shock is negative. But deflation from a supply"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T03:00Z 14.9K followers, 6111 engagements

"@CapitalCrashout One thing I wouldn't mind from deflation is having a society that values hard work and saving over rent-seeking and degen leveraging"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T04:07Z 14.7K followers, XX engagements

"He is confirming what many suspect: 140150 JPY band must be maintained for global financial stability. Everyone knows a too-strong yen risks a carry trade unwind while a too-weak yen risks capital flight and deflationary exports. US may need to cut more to help w this band"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-06T12:28Z 14.8K followers, 19.2K engagements

"Nepal and now Madagascar. GenZ riot may become a thing"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T19:13Z 14.9K followers, 3005 engagements

"@ShengenM Mandarin Oriental the prime example"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-09-25T03:09Z 14.7K followers, XXX engagements

"Fyi: We have not had a 5bp daily move in 10Y since 9/17 FOMC in 30Y since 9/8 (day after NFP) Just surreal (and a bit uneasy) calmness in the bond market"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T20:23Z 14.9K followers, 2434 engagements

"Data or no data the bond market is starting to make itself heard. We shall see if this rally continues but if it does then it has significant implications for the equity positioning. (1) Levered longs (which fund their position by effectively shorting bonds in repo) unwind their positions as the short bond position loses money. (2) Rate-sensitive defensive equities catch a bid as investors hunt for yield in equities. This will likely cause a rotation out of QQQ. The X-factor will be: markets view of the credit risk at the time and how the rates move lines up with FX and capital flows. A rally"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T12:07Z 14.9K followers, 9005 engagements

"From DAL earnings call: corp travel volumes are still XX% below pre-COVID yet corp revenues are higher. Translation: they hiked prices XX% on inelastic demand customers (premium class). (Btw go visit Midtown restaurants. Packed but no one dines there on their own dime.)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T22:52Z 14.9K followers, 4977 engagements

"@ZanJacquRef What would be better in your opinion - Buy KRW - Buy EWY (currency + stock)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T03:48Z 14.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@mcsnipeoptcg I think with or without ECB rate actions EU is in the world of pain. Lower dollar screws them on real economy and dollar liquidity (lower dollar = less eurodollar supply). Higher dollar screws their dollar asset positions"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T15:06Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Once the spigot opens it sure will be very positive. But QE is not to be opened lightly so for me the question is: does TPTB need a crisis as an excuse to justify the inevitable liquidity injection or can we move straight into the liquidity regime Effectively the choice between do we crash then moon or we moon straight"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T15:53Z 14.7K followers, XX engagements

"That is a reasonable argument but XXX% core PCE is not "unanchored" (though too close for comfort admittedly). We made a decent progress from the days of X% in CPI. But the Fed did not finish the job when it could because 2024 was an election yr and here we are. Still yours is a stance I respect and more battles to be fought over that. Let's see where CPI lands this month. I suspect it will be a soft print"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T01:21Z 14.8K followers, XX engagements

"Trump needs to save the housing mkt well before the 2026 midterm. One cut a meeting is not enough. Slow bleeding economy does not do him any good. Needs shock and awe treatment. Why we are witnessing the weaponization of USD. Rubin XX = boom in XX = Dems midterm victory"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T12:31Z 14.9K followers, 4820 engagements

"Given repeated squeezes in Russell energy cyclicals speculative and short momentum we saw last couple mths not surprised Citadel & Millennium is at +56% ytd. Remember they are heavy users of repo/margin leverage. Also highly sensitive to funding costs and borrow stability"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-03T22:17Z 14.7K followers, 115.3K engagements

"Wont be today probably not tomorrow either. But in due time this will be ranked as one of his all-timers right up there with classics like Bear Stearns is fine"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-06T14:24Z 14.9K followers, 6398 engagements

"In the credit world there is a saying There is no hedge against fraud"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-03T19:49Z 14.8K followers, 29.3K engagements

"As bearish as I have been on Main St fundamentals I have always stayed away from calling the top in this market. Hence my amusement in seeing many (smart folks too) trying to call the top on gold right now. All I can say is you wont like it if/when gold finally breaks down"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T22:53Z 14.9K followers, 10.9K engagements

"@arbalest0101 QE suppresses bond yields. The Fed is injecting reserves into the banking system by buying Treasuries and MBS"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T03:19Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"Ya know. Deflation does not sound that terrible to me right now"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T01:54Z 14.8K followers, 8948 engagements

"From BBG today: Chinas trade balance with the world ex-US is hitting record highs. It is the deflationary game of musical chairs and the hunger game for the remaining eurodollars which China is soaking up both as a means of wealth accumulation and as strategic leverage"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-09-22T23:46Z 14.8K followers, 2937 engagements

"Deficits are coming down. 2024: $1.88t 2025: $1.78t $110b of tariff revenue makes up almost the entirety of the decline. Tariff is clearly putting a break on fiscal impulse. 2026 (OMB est): $1.60t This implies another $180b decline in deficit = -XXX% GDP growth deduction"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T01:19Z 14.9K followers, 5399 engagements

"Xccy basis at the tights suggesting dollar tightness in the offshore wholesale funding mkt. US providing dollar liquidity to select allies (Argentina and maybe Korea) sending a geopolitical message. (Side with us against China or else) ECB and BoE fretting about lack of USD support from the Fed lately"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T20:37Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"High income households now shopping at Dollar Tree"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T21:09Z 14.9K followers, 4868 engagements

"@CapitalCrashout It is a half shitpost. I do acknowledge that things do not look that fun out there in Japan and China right now"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T04:03Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"Incredibly lucky"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T03:16Z 14.9K followers, 3566 engagements

"TLT (+8.0%) has now flipped HYG (7.0%) on ytd returns. We are in a new regime"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T18:00Z 14.9K followers, 39.1K engagements

"What I do find notable though is that despite Trump tweets decent regional bank prints and zero draw on the SRF today Crypto still deeply red gold barely flat and rates only reversed 1/3 of ydays move. Mkt saying this is not over / there is something else"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-17T12:54Z 14.9K followers, 7733 engagements

"Fully caveating this is binary I think TPTB needs a scare event to justify the liquidity cascade. Hard to think the public will accept liquidity injection unless they see full pain inflicted onto the market. But that said given the binary nature of this I still have some degen hodl positions which I am willing to ride out (which I may regret but cest la vie)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T15:00Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@DrBankrupt I think there will be some sort of Universal Basic Income after all this chaos. But havent thought this thru that carefully yet"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T16:41Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@TradFidiGuy It is. But not too different from what Uncle Sam is doing to us"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T01:10Z 14.8K followers, XX engagements

"This is why he is the worlds greatest banker/risk manager but not money manager"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-07T16:05Z 14.9K followers, 5816 engagements

"Not that this was unexpected (reserves running low) but it is still a meaningful shift that the Fed is going to stop selling Treasuries and MBS into the market soon"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T16:37Z 14.9K followers, 14.1K engagements

"@prpl8 $27t is hardly a small mkt. Same as NDX 3x larger than Shanghai and bonds are $37t"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T23:47Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"It has been a great ride for humanity Hope we got a few Sarah and John Connor out there"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T13:59Z 14.7K followers, 3284 engagements

"Have talked about Euro xccy basis a few times before. Here is the JPY xccy basis (albeit OTC). Had a notable drop towards end of Sep (negative = greater demand for synthetic dollar). With this new regime (JGB 30Y new high tonight and JPY 150.50) worth monitoring this as well"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-07T01:23Z 14.8K followers, 8583 engagements

"@GordianKnotFinX Or NVDA GPUs and MOUs from OpenAI"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T02:02Z 14.8K followers, XXX engagements

"@ludens16 Global industrial margin squeeze + deflation in consumer goods across the globe + tightening of offshore dollar liquidity that can strain the overseas financial system"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T02:01Z 14.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Not financial or trading advice but its worth pondering about the fact that Donnie and Scottie had a myriad of investment options - including BTC and gold - yet chose to put $40b into Argentine pesos. 🤔 Mar-a-Lago vibe"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T01:20Z 14.9K followers, 4226 engagements

"If HF ownership of Treasuries is greater than what the official data suggests then we have to consider a higher probability of a more subdued rates rally - or even a selloff - during an extended market stress/ degrossing event. Something to consider"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T11:15Z 14.9K followers, 6399 engagements

"What about the NFP So CPI good and NFP bad There is a word for that scenario"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T21:43Z 14.7K followers, 6741 engagements

"@LordPos3idon You sell your losers in Q4 to offset taxable gains"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T21:32Z 14.7K followers, XXX engagements

"@Tyberious2100 Yes HR is the first to get cut but never the last"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T11:15Z 14.7K followers, XX engagements

"Notably no recent updates on Tethers $20b raise. Based on yesterdays events they may want to secure it quickly for what lies ahead. Esp as many (incl. US and China) recognize Tether as a $130b TBill holder can be a systemic weak link capable of disrupting global USD mkts"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-12T02:08Z 14.8K followers, 3719 engagements

"Seems like Donnie and Scottie want us to pay taxes next April😅"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T11:32Z 14.8K followers, 3426 engagements

"Retail remains flush with cash but banks are starving for it (deposits already working its way thru the system). As more deposits move out into stocks lenders must tap the repo mkt for more liquidity. Hence the paradox: cash-rich (aggregate) households cash-poor banks"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-09T11:45Z 14.9K followers, 34.7K engagements

"Chinese 30Y (white) and Hang Seng (blue). Both down 3bp and X% respectively. Not that the CCP is as sensitive to financial market moves as the US but these allow us to gauge how China perceives Trumps threats of trade escalation (see the moves in Apr)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T03:44Z 14.8K followers, 4497 engagements

"A very under-appreciated fact: the US is still the largest owner (equal to #234 combined) of gold reserve bar none * Fort Knox audit notwithstanding"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T15:45Z 14.8K followers, 4515 engagements

"@simplspark Americans and Chinese arguing: my Skynet is better than yours"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T03:49Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@PaulSantucci1 Lot of bond bears out there. To see their bond bear thesis fulfilled you need this swap spread (which shows big money's demand for duration) to break downward (like we saw in April)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T01:29Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements

"@Cincinnatus25 Total return. Dividend reinvestment has to be included"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T23:40Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"@BTCDadThoughts It is pretty obvious that is the end game but I suspect that is the final step not the first if this escalation continues"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T11:24Z 14.7K followers, XX engagements

"Crude clawing back 1/3 of the losses from Friday; ditto JPY. So only partial reversal. Meanwhile gold is screaming that TACO or not fiat is a one way street. 😂"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T00:00Z 14.8K followers, 5415 engagements

"At this pt I have to say $1000 gold rally in two months is either front-running mass QE or pricing in counterparty risks"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T20:09Z 14.9K followers, 22.9K engagements

"You wont find credit risk in GSIB earnings. They have long moved away from Main St catering instead to NDFIs and blue-chip clients. The upper leg of the K-shaped economy is fine. The area to watch is not assets but liabilities: growing reliance on repo as money markets tighten. (JPMs net repo liability rose to $142b from $125b last qtr; it was a $1b net asset a year ago.)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T17:51Z 14.8K followers, 3621 engagements

"Not a major surprise but worth highlighting: X of the X banking giants (C the only exception) missed on deposits this quarter. JPM explains the dynamics on its earnings call and it is about as predictable as it gets: personal savings rate is a little bit lower than expected. Consumer spending remained robust while income was a bit lower. So that's all else equal decreasing balances per account. And as you obviously know equity market performance has been particularly strong which is driving flows into investments. Rates are a little bit higher than what was in the forwards and that is"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T18:01Z 14.9K followers, 11.5K engagements

"Not that you can read too much into bond futures on a bond holiday but so far the implied yield move is only +1bp after Fridays -10bp+ rates rally in the long ends. Will see if European hrs change things but at this point the bond market is not buying into TACO yet"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-12T23:17Z 14.7K followers, 4959 engagements

"I imagine Chinas gold hoarding is for its preparation for their own settlement system as a way to compensate other nations for their loss of dollar wealth. But I also think the US would be a fool not to have a contingency plan if our stock market breaks down. That is small semi-conspiratorial part of my secular thesis on stablecoin/altcoins"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-15T11:27Z 14.9K followers, XXX engagements

"The significance of the statement below comes from the facts that (a) this is coming from a Philly Fed President whose region is faring better than most other regions and (b) she votes on the FOMC next year"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-13T18:15Z 14.7K followers, 2845 engagements

"So I checked how things were in 1999. - FFR was at X% - 10Y was at 5-6% - GDP growth of X% - X% GDP budget SURPLUS. - +266K/mth job growth on avg - XXX% Core PCE. I rest my case"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-06T13:24Z 14.8K followers, 107.4K engagements

"Within two hours I learned more about cooking oil fundamentals from FinTwit than I will prob ever care to know. Now with this newfound expertise here is my take 😂"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-14T21:46Z 14.8K followers, 6120 engagements

"@bliss_trekkers Certainly possible. (And here I thought I was being scary 😂)"
X Link @yieldsearcher 2025-10-16T17:30Z 14.9K followers, XX engagements