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@CernBasher "Tesla's Robotaxi Service Area Expansion Let's not lose the significance of what's been done here. Steven Mark Ryan proposed an unconventional humorous shape for the expansion of the Robotaxi geo-fenced area in Austin. Just XX days later Tesla implemented an expansion that closely matched this suggestion. While the shape itself has sparked widespread amusement and memes across social media the deeper implication is far more substantial. Rapid Deployment Capability: The quick turnaround - from suggestion to live implementation - underscores Tesla's ability to dynamically adjust and scale their"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-14 13:27:21 UTC 37.2K followers, 423.6K engagements

"And we found the more affordable vehicles. Well played Tesla well played. But they aren't exactly using the unboxed method yet"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-19 23:48:13 UTC 37.1K followers, 5717 engagements

"@JuliaLi71482755 It's about the ramp. Six months ago he was talking about aggressively ramping. Now it's much slower. What changed"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 13:48:33 UTC 37.2K followers, 1202 engagements

"Video discussing the bot ramp with @herbert after the January 2025 earnings call:"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 13:40:03 UTC 37.2K followers, 5484 engagements

"Tesla: A Catalyst for Deflation and Driver for Bitcoin The convergence of Tesla's ambitious projects Robotaxi and Optimus has the potential to unleash a powerful deflationary wave across the global economy. By drastically reducing the costs of transportation and labor these innovations could trigger a cascade of economic effects ultimately leading to a scenario where governments may resort to significant currency creation potentially driving capital towards Bitcoin. At the heart of this hypothesis lies the concept of "good deflation" a decrease in the general price level of goods and services"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-17 13:49:42 UTC 37.2K followers, 18.8K engagements

"Tesla Valuation - Slower Optimus Ramp TLDR: The pace of the ramp doesn't really impact the present value calculation. If you're focused on the ramp you're focused on the wrong thing. Here's a revised ramp (to better reflect what Elon said on the Q2 conference call). As with the previous model (see below) I assumed starting net profit per bot per day of $XXX declining over time due to competition & scale benefits until it reaches $XX per day in 2035. If we put a zero value on all the other businesses we can get to a valuation of about $X trillion in 2030 (down from $XX trillion) and $130"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 18:08:59 UTC 37.2K followers, 33.9K engagements

"@djbthomson It destroys rideshare. It destroys car rental. It destroys car ownership. It destroys public transportation"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 03:07:01 UTC 37.2K followers, XXX engagements

"@elonmusk Will Tesla investors learn Nvidia's lesson"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-20 02:01:49 UTC 37.2K followers, 38.1K engagements

"Optimus Oscillation - Elon What Changed In January 2025 Elon said this about Optimus: "The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10000 Optimus robots to be built this year. Will we succeed in building 10000 exactly by the end of December this year Probably not but will we succeed in making several thousand Yes I think we will. Will those several thousand Optimus robots be doing useful things by the end of the year Yes I'm confident they will do useful things. Those Optimus use at the Tesla factories for production design X will inform how will we change for production design X which we"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 13:40:02 UTC 37.2K followers, 63.5K engagements

"Can we get Jensen for his buddy Elon to ask for the EV credits to come back too"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-15 02:01:44 UTC 37.1K followers, 18.4K engagements

"@WR4NYGov I can get to $XX trillion just with Robotaxi.with a fleet of less than XX million"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 18:18:17 UTC 37.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Look both ways before crossing the road Teslas FSD fixes this. Perhaps Ford should license FSD so people driving their vehicles can do so safely A human driven vehicle pulls out in front of my Cybertruck and blocks the road"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-23 09:53:25 UTC 37.2K followers, 23.7K engagements

"Gary did do a nice job of cherry-picking a start date because we all know that when the clock strikes midnight on New Year's Eve all prior data is erased or at least in the minds of fund managers But it looks a bit different over one year. And five years"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 01:43:26 UTC 37.2K followers, 7304 engagements

"How's Waymo's Scaling Going Today Waymo announced that they've now driven XXX million fully autonomous miles on public roads. From one reporting period to the next we can calculate the daily average fleet miles. If we assume that the most recent reporting date was 6/30/2025 (not 7/15/2025) then Waymo's fleet is currently doing more than 300000 autonomous miles per day. Waymo's fleet has grown to more than 1500 vehicles. So the daily average miles per vehicle is around XXX miles. It will be interesting to compare Waymo with Tesla's Robotaxi as it scales"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-15 17:37:44 UTC 37.2K followers, 24.9K engagements

"And were back to being optimistic about Optimus again"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-27 00:24:54 UTC 37.2K followers, 13K engagements

"For those that may have missed my earlier posts on humanoid bots here's a compendium of some relevant posts. a XX part thread. 1) A deflation machine 2) An economic reboot 3) Humanoid bot motto 4) Bot napkin math at massive scale 5) Bot market vs EV market 6) Humanoid bots in warfare 7) A Zero-trillion dollar market 8) Bot deployments - fast or flow - does it matter 9) Thoughts on humanoid bot deployment 10) How big could the market become 11) Scott Walter defines useful work 12) Humanoid bots will address major labor issues 13) The advantages of humanoid bots 14) What could capable humanoid"
@CernBasher on X 2024-05-06 13:32:47 UTC 37.2K followers, 346.1K engagements

"If Optimus gets to $XX trillion in revenue (as Elon said in January 2025) we're talking about a $XXX trillion market cap not $XX trillion"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 13:30:29 UTC 37.2K followers, 19.8K engagements

"@RealJimChanos @herbertong Watch the entire video - you might learn something"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-19 16:39:06 UTC 37.1K followers, 1285 engagements

"Most people don't need Optimus - they only need one of these robot trash bins. There is no doubt the robots will rule the world"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 14:25:34 UTC 37.2K followers, 10.9K engagements

"Grok Top Ten Takeaways Robotaxi Launch Success: Tesla successfully launched its robotaxi service in Austin delivering fully autonomous rides with no driver and plans to expand the service area significantly within weeks targeting half the U.S. population by year-end pending regulatory approvals. Autonomy as a Key Driver: Full Self-Driving (FSD) and autonomy are central to Teslas strategy with FSD adoption increasing XX% in North America since the release of Version XX driven by its 10x safety improvement over non-FSD vehicles. Model Y Global Success: The Model Y became the best-selling car in"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-24 19:40:23 UTC 37.2K followers, 2778 engagements

"$TSLA: Tesla's Big Move Is Hiding in Plain Sight"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 16:57:04 UTC 37.2K followers, 8289 engagements

"@skywalters My guess is that they wanted to change the design (Optimus Gen X to 3) and that involves all kinds of changes to various components (all of which Tesla will want to build in-house). That's all fine - but I'm curious about why he's not still talking about ramping at record pace"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 14:10:05 UTC 37.2K followers, 1638 engagements

"Tesla - Growth Mode Make no mistake about it - Tesla is in growth mode. As we approach an age of AI and robotics would you rather Tesla optimize the auto business for short-term profit Or build AI infrastructure (FSD Robotaxi Optimus and energy storage) as fast as they can for growth Optimizing the business for short-term profit leads you to the following. Whereas building for growth is the opposite. The price you pay -- you upset a few fair-weather short-term focused shareholders. Watch my video on this topic with @herbertong - link below"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 15:29:31 UTC 37.2K followers, 18.8K engagements

"@notmeagain4837 According to Grok: Approximately XXX million Americans have auto loans as of the first quarter of 2024. This figure represents about XX% of the U.S. population with total auto loan debt reaching $XXXX trillion"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-18 03:12:55 UTC 37.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Just a hunch but this post by Gary probably marks peak euphoria for Uber's autonomous ambitions. Gary's statement that "Until the safety driver comes out TSLA FSD is not fully autonomous so can't be scaled nationally." Ok Gary - They aren't behind the wheel so they aren't "safety drivers" but what happens when Tesla pulls the safety monitor out Your statement falls apart and Tesla can begin to scale nationally. At that point it's lights out for Uber your so called "biggest beneficiary of the industry going autonomous.""
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 01:08:32 UTC 37.2K followers, 50.6K engagements

"@storch1990 Ah so I've committed the "biggest exaggeration ever" crime. Care to share your model inputs for everyone to audit"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-20 12:14:43 UTC 37.1K followers, XXX engagements

"@Tesla Some roll on four wheels. Some walk. Do others fly Or roll on two wheels"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-20 22:20:46 UTC 37.1K followers, 14.4K engagements

"Tesla Valuation - Only Optimus Let's say Tesla goes all-in on Optimus and closes down all the other businesses and new initiatives (I don't know why they would do that) what is the potential value of Optimus Here's a potential Optimus production ramp scenario (from my Tesla Long-Term Valuation Model). One key change: I assumed starting net profit per bot per day of $XXX declining by XX% per year (due to competition & scale benefits) until it reaches $XX per day. As it turns out this is the answer to the question in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy -- How much does Optimus make in profit"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-23 17:03:40 UTC 37.2K followers, 81.3K engagements

"Tesla Q2 Results - Thoughts from "AI Analysts" I asked three AI analysts (Grok Gemini and ChatGPT) what they thought about Tesla's latest earnings report. Their detailed thoughts are posted below but here are some of their quick replies. X. One word summary of the call: Grok - Multitasking Gemini - Transition ChatGPT - Inflection X. How was Elon's mood Grok - Optimistic Gemini - Bullish ChatGPT - Exultant X. What was the most surprising thing in the call Grok - The successful launch of robotaxi service in Austin with fully autonomous customer deliveries from the factory. Gemini - The most"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-24 19:40:22 UTC 37.2K followers, 34.1K engagements

"Everything Elon said about Optimus. Excellent summary of Elon's comments on Optimus by @TheHumanoidHub Long-term Optimus has the potential to generate $XX trillion in revenue. In that scenario we can support a lot of training compute. Even $XXX billion in training compute is a good deal (chuckles) -- Welcome good news for Nvidia"
@CernBasher on X 2025-01-30 03:21:06 UTC 37.2K followers, 76K engagements

"Move Over Consumers - There's a New Buyer for Model Ys in Town Historically selling cars to consumers was Tesla's priority. But soon Tesla will have a new customer with an insatiable appetite for new vehicles - it's own Robotaxi division. Tesla can make about 5000 Model Ys a week at GigaTexas. Going forward Tesla's priority will likely be their own Robotaxi division and consumers will have access to a lower supply of vehicles. So what would happen to Model Y prices for consumer purchases if Tesla diverts a large portion of Model Y production for Robotaxi expansion Answer - the price goes way"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 02:34:14 UTC 37.2K followers, 31K engagements

"Tesla Valuation - Using a P/E Ratio is Dumb In my latest video with @herbertong we discuss Tesla's valuation. We discuss each line of business and do a sum of the parts valuation. We then compare that to a total company valuation approach. And finally we do a discounted earnings (cash flow) valuation. This is the preferred method as it takes into account all of Tesla's future earnings power appropriately discounted back to the present. Visually you can see why the present value of Tesla's near-term earnings don't matter - as they are a tiny portion the company's total valuation. And lastly we"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-19 15:43:45 UTC 37.2K followers, 204.7K engagements

"@grok @Djw1550 Look past your bytes @grok - Tesla is making massive investments now to build what will be enormous businesses in the future: Robotaxi and Optimus. Both of them will change the world. Who's going to be able to compete with Tesla"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-24 19:47:24 UTC 37.2K followers, 1015 engagements

"@AssetInvestorr Just like all the EV competition that never came"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-23 19:29:38 UTC 37.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Tesla Valuation with Autos Capped at X Million and No Optimus Let's say Tesla never makes more than X million cars (I don't know why that would be the case but bear with me here). And let's also assume that Robotaxi never gets beyond a fleet of about XX million vehicles (globally in 2035 - should've used LiDAR). And let's also assume that Optimus never becomes a product (zero revenue for Optimus forever). Then my model gets to a present value of about $XXX (using a XX% discount rate). This puts the P/E on 2030 earnings under X and the P/E on 2035 earnings under X. Are you overpaying if you're"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-20 11:25:08 UTC 37.2K followers, 81.9K engagements

"If you want to understand this (Tesla's with the roof racks). then read Phil's article"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-22 14:02:13 UTC 37.2K followers, 25.9K engagements

"@grok @TOC4AI Morgan Stanley's 2050 projection is much too low. Herbert and I did a video on this topic specifically on Citi's $X trillion prediction in 2050"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-19 17:41:24 UTC 37.1K followers, XXX engagements

"If Gary can cherry-pick his start date then here's my cherry-picked start date. Uber has had all this time to develop a strategy for Autonomy - what were they doing - sleeping behind the wheel"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-26 02:01:32 UTC 37.2K followers, 6118 engagements

"Bonus: How much do we need to sandbag my Optimus numbers to arrive at a present value that's about equal to Tesla's current stock price We need to reduce my numbers by XX% to justified a current present value for Tesla that's equal to today's stock price. That means only XX million bots deployed by 2035"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-23 17:03:41 UTC 37.2K followers, 4531 engagements

"Gemini Top XX Takeaways Robotaxi is Live in Austin: Tesla has successfully launched its Robotaxi service with paying customers in Austin Texas. The company is actively expanding the service area and plans to seek regulatory approval for launches in the Bay Area Nevada Arizona and Florida soon. Major U.S. Autonomy Goal for 2025: Elon Musk's goal is to have autonomous ride-hailing available to half of the U.S. population by the end of 2025 pending regulatory approvals. IRA EV Credit Repeal: A "big bill" has repealed the $7500 federal EV tax credit effective at the end of Q3 2025. This is"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-24 19:40:23 UTC 37.2K followers, 5627 engagements

"@TeslaPrice I modeled what I think is a fairly conservative ramp"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-23 17:37:06 UTC 37.1K followers, XXX engagements

"From a departing employee: "robotaxis will scale fast" Probably nothing"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-20 22:42:12 UTC 37.1K followers, 17.2K engagements

"@WizZifnab Getting to 100000/mth in X yrs doesn't seem "as fast as it's humanly possible to do so." - that's like only making 5000 to 10000 cars per month - a very low number"
@CernBasher on X 2025-07-25 14:21:20 UTC 37.2K followers, 1512 engagements

"Deere & Company + AI = Autonomous Farming From Nvidia: "By 2030 John Deere aims for fully autonomous farming addressing global challenges like labor shortages sustainability and food security. Their AI and robotics solutions make farming more efficient and profitable reduce environmental impact lower carbon footprints and promote biodiversity." The challenges of farming include: 1) No more land is being created - farmers must do more with less to feed the world. 2) The global population is rising (for a time until demographic impacts kick in) thus the demand for food is growing. 3) The"
@CernBasher on X 2025-01-09 15:19:56 UTC 37.2K followers, 8476 engagements