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Cern Basher @CernBasher on x 37.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-23 17:03:40 UTC
Tesla Valuation - Only Optimus
Let's say Tesla goes all-in on Optimus and closes down all the other businesses and new initiatives (I don't know why they would do that), what is the potential value of Optimus?
Here's a potential Optimus production ramp scenario (from my Tesla Long-Term Valuation Model). One key change: I assumed starting net profit per bot per day of $135, declining by XX% per year (due to competition & scale benefits), until it reaches $XX per day.
As it turns out this is the answer to the question in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy --> How much does Optimus make in profit per day!
If we put a zero value on all the other businesses we can get to a valuation of about $XX trillion in 2030 and $XXX trillion in 2035. These are the potential Tesla share prices based on the potential earnings each year multiplied by a P/E that starts at XXX and declines over time to XX.
If XX is too rich for you, then how about 25? Well, that still gets us to a valuation of $XX trillion and a stock price of about $XXXXXX in 2035.
As you may know, I detest P/E based valuation models, so here a present value calculation... With only Optimus, the present value of Tesla's stock price today ranges from $XXXXX to over $XXXXX (depending on your assumptions for growth post 2035).
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics longterm allin tesla stocks consumer cyclical stocks bitcoin treasuries