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@neilksethi "Mag-7 worst day since August. Less than -XXX% from the worst day since April"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T19:24Z 16.1K followers, 5065 engagements

"MarketWatch: Anthony Saglimbene Ameriprise Financial chief market strategist notes that without the drag of the Magnificent Seven the S&P XXX would have been down only about XXXX% on the year through Tuesday according to his tally not 9.7%. That said the $MAGS index is now +6.4% since then"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-04-24T19:58Z 16.2K followers, XXX engagements

"BBG also with story on China's exports coming in better than expected growing XXX% y/y in Sept to $329bn the highest this year above the +6.6% expected even as US shipments remained depressed -XX% y/y the sixth month of double-digit declines as it was more than offset by strong growth in sales to regions ex-US including the EU. In total exports to non-US destinations grew XXXX% the fastest since March 2023. Shipments to Africa surged XX% last month the fastest since February 2021 with exports to Latin America rebounding XXXX% from declines in June and August. Exports to the EU rose by more"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T12:48Z 16.2K followers, 2344 engagements

"BoA (Ciana): US stocks extended their summer advance in September despite seasonal headwinds. While Q4 tends to be the best quarter of the year it is often backloaded to Nov-Dec and the latter half of Dec. The S&P500 exceeded our head and shoulders bottom secondary target of 6625. Extended upside levels may include 6845 and 7000. However breadth measures continue to diverge and have failed to confirm the indexs advance. This has favored hedges into new highs while breadth divergence remains. Should leadership falter and equities dip 6625 is initial support then 6550 September lows with the"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T11:30Z 16.1K followers, 1807 engagements

"Goldman: The modest job growth alongside robust GDP growth seen recently is likely to be normal to some degree in the years ahead. We expect the great majority of US potential GDP growth to come from solid productivity growth boosted by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) with only a modest contribution from labor supply growth due to population aging and lower immigration (Exhibit 1)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T13:59Z 16.2K followers, 3518 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading higher as while the government shutdown drags on corporations are providing reasons for optimism with Advanced Micro Devices jumping as much as XX% in premarket trading after signing a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure and Comerica Inc. after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the financial services firm. Positive notes from commentators on the upcoming earnings season from Goldmans David Kostin and Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research are also boosting the mood. The calendar for today is light with no economic reports and"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T13:27Z 16.2K followers, 1866 engagements

"#WTI futures dropped -XXX% Friday the worst day since June 23rd (when they dropped over -X% following the de-escalation of Israel/Iran hostilities) taking them to the lowest since early May. Daily MACD and RSI remain negative with the latter the weakest since May as well"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T19:30Z 16.1K followers, 2226 engagements

"While I think most on Friday (including me) were expecting the volatility to be on the downside on Monday (I was thinking Turnaround Tuesday) it appears the Trump put is now considerably higher than in April as he posts: Dont worry about China calling Pres Xi highly respected and saying Chinas flurry of new measures including rare earth restrictions were a bad moment. Xi doesnt want an economic depression in China said Trump and neither does he. Rather America wants to help China. No need for worry as "it will all be fine As might be expected markets are relieved with SPX futures +0.9% Nasdaq"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T22:46Z 16.1K followers, 6190 engagements

"The Chicago Fed does a monthly estimate of retail sales which I will caution has a spotty record (as do many estimates of retail sales in fairness) but given we won't get the report I suppose it's better than nothing. It forecast a +0.5% in the ex-autos number (+0.2% inflation adjusted) both to new record highs"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T15:30Z 16.2K followers, 15.8K engagements

"Earnings season continues Wednesday as we get more banks along with a broader array of non-bank reporters (although none as big as JPM). In total well get X SPX reports but fewer $100bn in market cap with BAC MS ABT PLD (in descending order of market cap)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T23:30Z 16.2K followers, 2933 engagements

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an exclusive interview on Wednesday that the Trump administration will set price floors across a range of industries to combat market manipulation by China although which industries weren't mentioned. When you are facing a non-market economy like China then you have to exercise industrial policy Bessent told Sara Eisen at CNBCs Invest in America forum in Washington D.C. So were going to set price floors and the forward buying to make sure that this doesnt happen again and were going to do it across a range of industries the Treasury Secretary"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T14:37Z 16.2K followers, 2706 engagements

"MS says the concerns over the First Brands issues are likely overblown: "While these developments undoubtedly surprised credit investors. the concerns regarding First Brands seem to lean more towards idiosyncratic fumbles than anything more ominous. With robust earnings and (more important) healthy earnings revision breadth the fundamental backdrop for the broader credit markets looks constructive." They note though that "default rates have been sticky (around X% for high yield bonds and XXX% for leveraged loans) and higher than the long-term average for some time and we expect them to stay"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T17:30Z 16.2K followers, 1959 engagements

"Earnings pick up in a big way Tuesday with the unofficial start to 3Q earnings season with several of the big banks. In total well get X SPX reports almost all of them $100bn in market cap in JPM JNJ WFC GS BLK C (in order of market cap)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T23:30Z 16.2K followers, 2990 engagements

"Earnings pick up in a big way this week with the unofficial start to 3Q earnings season with several of the big banks on Tuesday. In total well get around XX SPX reports next week with XX $100bn in market cap in JPM JNJ BAC WFC GS MS AXP ABT BLK C SCHW PGR PLD IBKR MMC (in order of market cap). Well also get some big non-SPX stocks in ASML and TSM among others"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T00:20Z 16.2K followers, 2936 engagements

"The St. Louis Feds 3Q GDP tracker continues to remain well below other trackers but actually saw some movement this week pushing up +0.24% w/w to +0.42% as of Friday. That is still around two to three percent below the other GDP trackers but at least moving in the right direction. They do not give a breakdown of the inputs. (As a reminder this indicator has had a mixed track record the past few years often undershooting actual GDP since Q2 XX (including for 2Q XX when it was -XXX% goo low) but was right on in Q1 & Q4 XX but then way too high at +3.07%() for Q1 25)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T01:32Z 16.1K followers, 2077 engagements

"Meanwhile Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said investors should allocate as much as XX% of their portfolios to gold. Gold is a very excellent diversifier in the portfolio Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich Connecticut. If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective you would probably have something like XX% of your portfolio in gold because it is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down. The billionaire investor compared todays environment to the early 1970s when inflation heavy government"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T17:30Z 16.2K followers, 3335 engagements

"Mag-7 ended up falling -XXX% which was the worst day since April"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T21:01Z 16.2K followers, 3508 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC & $APLD $STLA $SYF $BABA $MOS $LEVI $TSLA"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T12:57Z 16.2K followers, 2082 engagements

"BoA (Hartnett) on highlights from EPFR flows in week through Wed: Cash: MMF assets continue to rise now $7.4tn; Gold: $2.1bn inflowsmallest in X weeks; Crypto: $5.5bn inflowbiggest in XX weeks; IG bonds: $15.5bn inflow people keep buying bonds; Bank loan: $1.4bn inflowbiggest in XX weeksnotable 1st sign rate optimism peaking; Materials: $7.6bn inflowrecord weekly inflow YTD inflows annualizing record $79bn (Chart 5); Healthcare: $1.5bn inflowbiggest since Apr23 (Chart 6); Financials: $0.2bn outflow1st outflow in X weeks"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T15:15Z 16.2K followers, 2535 engagements

"The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and its adjusted counterpart continued on their steady decline since the start of April falling to the least (loosest) since Jan XX but note the reading was as of Wednesday so it may move higher next week. Both of these indexes are very comprehensive each w/105 indicators. The adjusted version attempts to remove the correlation between the various indicators due to broad changes in economic conditions which also impact other areas (so as to not double count them)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T20:30Z 16.1K followers, 3123 engagements

"Earnings season continues Thursday as we get more financials along with a few other sector reporters. In total well get XX SPX reports with three $100bn in market cap in SCHW IBKR MMC (in descending order of market cap). Well also get major non-SPX reporter TSM (TSMC)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T23:30Z 16.2K followers, 2699 engagements

"MarketWatch: Wall Street veteran Jim Paulsen says he sees the potential for new leadership in the stock market. His chart shows the New York Fed recession probability index (red line) which Paulsen says is a good leading indicator for consumer confidence overlaid with the relative total-return performance (blue line) of an index comprising aggressive sectors of the stock market. The latter includes assets such as low quality stocks high beta stocks micro caps and IPOs. "Should more accommodative monetary policies finally stoke confidence these 'animal-spirit stocks' may take the lead" says"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T18:30Z 16.2K followers, 5099 engagements

"Goldmans US Equity Sentiment Indicator moved back down to -XXX as of Friday ("in light territory despite the S&P XXX near its all-time high and widespread concern about an equity market bubble") after making it up to -XXX the prior week (but still above the -XXX four weeks ago). The indicator combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning. It has not registered a positive reading since February although Goldman notes none of the nine positioning measures in our indicator are in stretched territory"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-28T12:40Z 16.1K followers, 32.8K engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $BAC $MS $ADM $BG $ABT $PNC $ASML $PZZA $CFG $SYF $DLTR $SOC $FHN $RUN $GRND $BK $LVMH"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T12:54Z 16.2K followers, 1974 engagements

"Markets Update - 10/13/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T22:31Z 16.2K followers, 5521 engagements

"SPX stock-by-stock flag from @FINVIZ_com from Friday a sea of red much of it bright outside of Staples and Utilities. Otherwise just a handful of green names. The top X (trillion-dollar club) were all lower led by AVGO -5.9%. The least bad was GOOG at -2%. Mag-7 were -XXX% worst day since April. Just one SPX component was up X% or more the least since I started tracking this a few months ago (down from X Thurs XX Wed) in PEP (over X% for a second session). Also the $100bn in market cap up X% or more. In contrast XXX SPX components were down -X% or more the most since I started tracking (up"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T21:12Z 16.2K followers, 3936 engagements

"BoA on CTA positioning in US equities: Were less likely to see significant CTA position changes with longs still stretched and sell triggers over XXX% away. As weve noted above and over the last month these longs could still be adjusted with moves in realized volatility. So BoA sees CTAs for an 9th week (so for two months now) as needing continued subdued volatility to add to equity longs (which they have gotten which has seen their exposure drift higher). All continue to have significant unwind potential on a sustained downtrend given the relatively full positioning but there is a good"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T10:30Z 16.2K followers, 12.1K engagements

"CNBC: PIMCO President Christian Stracke is upbeat on the asset-based finance segment of the private credit market but warns of cracks in corporate direct lending which makes up the bulk of the sector. There are problems in corporate private credit where borrowers are going to their lenders and saying Can I not pay you cash interest now but basically borrow the interest from you and pay it later Its called Payment-in-Kind PIK and its fairly prevalent right now Stracke said"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-03T18:28Z 16.2K followers, 2351 engagements

"CNBC: In addition to Citadel's Ken Griffin you can add Robert Kaplan vice chairman at Goldman Sachs to those concerned the signal coming from the gold rally. I would tell you gold being up almost XX% year to date that should be getting our attention Kaplan told CNBCs Squawk on the Street. Thats a red light that we ought to be paying attention to. "The 10-year Treasury is not behaving like a safe haven right now. Gold is acting like the safe haven. Normally when theres stress in the government theres geopolitical issues you would see a bigger rally in the 10-year. We havent seen that Kaplan"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T17:30Z 16.2K followers, 7126 engagements

"US economic data would have been packed next week absent the shutdown but even it is somehow solved by next week the release of CPI PPI import prices advance retail sales jobless claims and housing starts data will all be delayed as data collection has been paused since the start of the month. At least we know well get CPI by the end of the month. But that still does leave the scheduled Fed reports most notably industrial production and the Beige Book for the October meeting but also some regional PMIs and other reports such as the Chicago Feds retail sales estimate (which I will warn has a"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T13:00Z 16.1K followers, 3410 engagements

"BoA's thoughts on Sept payrolls: Sep ADP private jobs surprised to the downside at -32k & Aug was revised down to -3k. The less favorable Sep seasonal factor (SF) in XX relative to prior years (+87k in XX vs +474k and +417k in XX and XX respectively) was in part responsible for the weak print. Even if this change in SF was warranted given structural labor market changes we dont expect this to play out with the same magnitude in NFP at least in Sep. The SF usually contributes positively to Sep private payrolls & we expect it to continue doing the same (Exhibit 1). Even if it is better to"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T11:15Z 16.2K followers, 1512 engagements

"Some mixed news on the UK labor market as despite the estimate of job losses since the budget last October being cut back to just 127k around half from initial estimates and slowed to -10k in Sept (and Aug revised to +10k) the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to XXX% in the three months to Aug the highest since May 2021 and private sector wage growth slowed to +4.4% the least since late 2021. The pound fell and traders increased bets on the chances of rate cuts next year. The latest UK jobs figures show tentative signs that the labor market could be past the worst following the hike in"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T12:51Z 16.2K followers, 2206 engagements

"F5 networks (FFIV) disclosed on Wednesday morning in a regulatory filing that nation-state hackers had breached its networks and stolen files including portions of source code from the companys BIG-IP suite of application services widely used by Fortune XXX companies and government agencies. F5s BIG-IP products are an integral part of many large organizations IT systems. They perform many functions including load balancing which refers to directing traffic to the appropriate systems so that applications run smoothly and wrapping those software programs in security features such as access"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-16T03:05Z 16.2K followers, 3597 engagements

"MarketWatch: Spending by a handful of big technology companies on artificial intelligence is expected to deliver XX% of the S&P XXX index's growth in business investments this year according to a tally from Lawrence Pfeffer equity-sector analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The broader index excluding Alphabet Meta Microsoft Amazon and Oracle was pegged to grow only X% in 2025 according to FactSet estimates"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T18:00Z 16.2K followers, 2007 engagements

"St Louis Fed Pres Musalem (2025 #FOMC voter) seems to be more aligned with the core of the Fed (Powell/Williams/Jefferson) than what we heard earlier from Gov Barr who seemed to be less open to further rate reductions saying at the Community Banking Research Conference hosted by the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce in Missouri that he was "open-minded about a potential further reduction in interest rates to provide further insurance against labor market weakening" although like Barr said I believe that we have to tread with caution because theres limited room for further easing before"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T19:40Z 16.1K followers, 2872 engagements

"DB says CTAs overall equity long positioning was scaled back this week (90th percentile) driven by a broad-based cut across regions. In the US (87th percentile) they trimmed their long positioning in the S&P XXX (88th percentile) the Nasdaq XXX (89th percentile) and the Russell 2000 (69th percentile). Still it remains quite full on a historical basis"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T00:59Z 16.2K followers, 9623 engagements

"I think at this point China and Trump are both playing the same game just with different styles. They both need each other but both want to try to gain leverage ahead of talks at the end of the month. I think both sides were reminding each other of the cards they hold and now both will deescalate to avoid a worst case scenario"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T23:22Z 16.1K followers, XXX engagements

"Missed a post there. Meant to attach the post on industrial selling to this post on financials: The buying in US Financials last week was the fastest pace in X months (99th percentile 5-year) driven by long buys and to a lesser extent short covers (6 to 1) Financials is now the most net bought US sector in SD terms over the past month. Banks stocks now make up XXX% of total US Net exposure on the Prime book in the 79th percentile vs. the past year and in the 92nd percentile vs. the past three years"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-30T10:00Z 16.2K followers, 3234 engagements

"1-Day VIX jumped to XXXX Friday the highest close since May 9th which was also on China worries (May 9th was the Friday ahead of the weekend China/US trade meeting when tariffs were above 100%). That level is implying a XXXX% move in the SPX Monday which if we do get will see further systematic selling"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T21:30Z 16.2K followers, 8849 engagements

"DB compares the current setup (market advance led by low quality stocks) to 2021. They start by noting that "simple momentum-chasing strategies such as buying stocks with heavy call volume in each previous week ripped higher over the last month echoing the early-2021 boom. In our view the performance of this strategy offers a good read on momentum-driven buying. After outperforming the S&P XXX by 30pp from the April bottom to early September it outperformed by another 30pp just over the last month rivaling the outperformance seen during the early-2021 boom which was fueled by reopening"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T13:40Z 16.1K followers, 6068 engagements

"Chinas deflation eased in September but left the country on track for the longest streak of economy-wide price declines since market reforms in the late 1970s even as core consumer prices hit a 19-month high. Under pressure from falling food costs consumer prices dropped -XXX% the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday below the median estimate of -XXX% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That said the core consumer price index excluding food and energy rose to a 19-month high of 1%. Producer prices remained more firmly in deflation falling -XXX% from a year earlier the 36th straight"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T02:46Z 16.2K followers, 16.1K engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $WBD $PSKY $BE $SHAK $EL $RKLB $USAR $SZZL $UUUU $MP $STUB $SFM $JPM $NVDA $AMD $ON $FAST $LYG $AAPL"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T12:40Z 16.2K followers, 2682 engagements

"$MS Like Goldman Morgan Stanley saw very strong y/y growth from its equity trading business but unlike Goldman it also accelerated Q/Q and at $4.12bn surpassed the $3.74bn from Goldman. Their fixed-income counterparts took in X% more than a year earlier bringing the total trading haul to $XXXX billion well above the $XXX billion analysts expected. The firms results also got a boost from better-than-expected investment-banking fees which rose XX% and the wealth business generated $XXX billion in revenue more than expected after pulling in $XX billion in new assets and recording a pretax profit"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T16:59Z 16.2K followers, 5071 engagements

"BoA: a record-high XX% of FMS investors in October said that they think AI stocks are in a bubble (vs XX% no bubble). Sentiment has flipped from September when just XX% said stocks were in a bubble (vs XX% saying no)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T13:49Z 16.2K followers, 7644 engagements

""Of the XX prior bull markets since World War II seven completed a fourth year with an average total gain of 88%. This one has essentially done that in three years putting the S&P 500s trailing price-to-earnings ratio at XX the highest ever for a bull market in its third year said Wall Street veteran and CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall." Ive never seen anything like this Stovall said. But history says the market isnt too far over its skis yet and doomed to fail. It just means gains need to rightsize soon"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T14:38Z 16.1K followers, 6897 engagements

"It appears French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will get a chance to push through a budget after surviving two no-confidence votes at the National Assembly on Thursday as new ally the Socialist party was able to keep defections to a minimum following Lecornu agreeing to suspend changes to pension laws. We are advancing one step at a time the president of the lower house of parliament Yael Braun-Pivet said. We are now working in the logic of compromise discussion and dialog. The French-German 10-year bond yield spread a key measure of risk was at XX basis points compared with more than 89"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-16T12:29Z 16.2K followers, XXX engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): gold fails $4k silver $XX as too hot right now & short US$ unwind; still few structurally long gold (0.5% private client AUM XXX% institutional AUM) front-running of new Fed Chair + boom/bubble polices (see Argentina bailout) + asset gold revaluation ( la 1934 & 1973) favors debasement tradehistory no guide to future but avg gold jump past X bull markets XXX% in XX months ($6k peak next spring Table 1). $GLD"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T11:45Z 16.2K followers, 2191 engagements

"Nomura's McElligott: Japans surprise weekend election outcome. is further indicating how much of the developed world is pivoting into a Run It Hot FISCAL DOMINANCE framework carrying monster deficits in order to try and outgrow debt and as respective central banks acquiesce to political forces standing down and deprioritizing their inflation mandates. Accordingly Gold Silver and Bitcoin are again simultaneously moving to fresh ATHs as the chief winners in this latest escalation of the (insert currency here) Debasement Trade alongside Equities then too ripping to record highs as well"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T11:00Z 16.1K followers, 8720 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JOBY $ASTS $VZ $TMQ $USAR $RKLB $TMC $IONS $FIG $SOFI $EFX $NVDA $ABBNY $UBS $ASML $CFLT $QS $TSLA $SCCO $FCX $AAPL $META $INTC"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T13:07Z 16.1K followers, 2010 engagements

"Citadel (Rubner): While near-term headline risks may continue to fuel volatility the underlying equity market primary trend remains constructive. Strengthening corporate fundamentals should underpin the next leg higher as we enter a historically strong November. Contrary to market chatter retail investors did not de-gross on Friday. Market-wide options flow ran XX% above the 3-month average with Citadel Securities Retail volumes running exceptionally high. Retail flow skewed XX% better to buy via our Call/Put Direction ratio (vs. a X% average over the past X months) marking the largest"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T16:30Z 16.2K followers, 19K engagements

"Tier1Alpha: 10-day realized volatility is exceptionally low at XXXX. while implied volatility remains well bid with the VIX at 16.2almost XX points higher than one-month SPX realized volatility. This represents an implied risk premium in the 93rd percentile. Whether the VIX is too high or realized volatility too low remains uncertain though its worth noting that a VRP this wide has historically been common near all-time highs"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-02T12:19Z 16.2K followers, 1756 engagements

"BoA on CTAs in the $USD: In FX the US dollar was able to hold on to gains this week despite falling on Friday with the tariff news. This weeks moves may have caused some trend followers to cover USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP and $AUD but positioning is still broadly short USD with the exception of $JPY where CTAs are short vs USD. Our model indicates that CTAs could buy USD vs all currencies we track in this report next week"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T10:00Z 16.1K followers, 3365 engagements

"BBG: Short-term implied volatility across major assets has fallen below long-term averages reaching levels not seen consistently in around four years according to Cboe Global Markets. For Mandy Xu Cboes head of derivatives market intelligence this prevailing calm is rooted in the economic story. Despite all the tariff chaos the consumer has held up inflation is still in check and the Fed is about to cut said Xu Until that narrative changes I think volatility is likely to remain in check in the near-term"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-08-30T13:40Z 16.2K followers, 4050 engagements

"We dont think it is entirely over said Julian Emanuel chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI who has been bullish most of the year with one of the highest targets on Wall Street referring to Fridays selloff. Although his team believes a meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will occur at the end of the month as the White House indicated the heightened uncertainty and increased volatility is likely to cause degrossing from active managers particularly systematic funds. The spat around rare earth minerals on Friday was a catalyst for an overdue pullback he said"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T19:00Z 16.2K followers, 2499 engagements

"BoAs client equity flows last week saw net buying of US equities for the first week in five despite continued outflows from ETFs (although decelerating to -$0.2bn) as inflows to single stocks jumped +$4.1bn the 5th most since 2008 (after the 3rd largest 2-week string of outflows since then two weeks ago) and the largest weekly inflow with a X% or more decline in the SPX. Remember these exclude corporates now. Institutional clients returned to buying after three weeks of selling a big +$4.4bn (the largest weekly inflow since Nov XX (4-wk avg still negative though -$0.2bn). Retail also turned"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T11:00Z 16.2K followers, 4342 engagements

"In terms of consumer read through BoA notes a variety of positives from the big bank results on Tuesday: Results across large banks Citi (C) Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) should be positively received by consumer finance investors in our view. Consumers continue to spend and credit trends remain favorable. - Average card volume growth (debit and credit) for the three banks in 3Q25 was +6.7% y/y an acceleration from XXX% in 2Q25. - In 3Q the three banks saw loan growth slightly decelerate to an average of +4.3% y/y vs. +4.5% in 2Q. - The average net charge-off (NCO) rate across"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T10:00Z 16.2K followers, 1687 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC MarketWatch & $AMD $CMA $FITB $BA $MU $TSLA $QUBT"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T12:36Z 16.1K followers, 2066 engagements

"Rubner: While retail investors have been "extraordinary" buyers Citadel Securities Institutional Options clients have been hedging bearish in X of the last X weeks. Institutional investors are experiencing FOMU fear of material underperformance to benchmark indices which has kept longs in play given consecutive moves in the largest cap equities but our macro client base is looking to fade the move higher in the lowest quality segments of the market"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-16T11:00Z 16.2K followers, 2115 engagements

"Goldman: On the other hand HFs faded the outperformance in Utilities which was the best performing but the most net sold US sector this week (-2.0 SDs) led by long-and-short sales in Electric Utilities stocks"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T13:32Z 16.1K followers, 1792 engagements

"Goldman on CTA flows: S&P short-trend became a touch negative below 6580 but is positive again intraday Monday. Overall coming into today our models expect a modest $18bn of global equity X week sales predominately in US markets though S&P reestablishing positive short trend would mitigate that and a similar figure over the cumulative X month so the baseline sales are not extending further currently and with contributions from both CTA/trend followers and the vol-based investors. If the market rebounds and vol subsides the selling would be even smaller and conversely there is ample room to"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T11:15Z 16.2K followers, 9409 engagements

"NYSE % of stocks above 50-DMAs (red line) dropped sharply to the least since April"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T22:30Z 16.1K followers, 2117 engagements

"Markets Update - 10/14/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T22:22Z 16.2K followers, 5958 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $DOOR $OXM $KLAR $BABA $ORCL $KR $CELH $CHWY $TMO $SNPS $UPS $FDX $C $BK $NVO $AAPL $AVGO $CNC $PNC"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-11T13:22Z 16.1K followers, 2296 engagements

"BoA on the potential for slippage in the Fed's credibility with markets and why the SEP is "a massive green light": With headline and core PCE inflation XXX% and XXX% y/y respectively for August the current policy rate of XXX% implies a real rate of 1.2-1.4% (Exhibit 1). Thats only modestly above the FOMCs median r* estimate of 1%. Chair Powell said in his press conference that tariffs have added 30-40bp to PCE inflation so far. Discounting this effect would mean that underlying inflation is around XXX% and the real rate is still just XXX% and 1.8%. The SEP suggests that the real policy rate"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-28T14:40Z 16.2K followers, 1569 engagements

"$C Citigroup in contrast to JPM (which is down -3.5%) is up +0.5% adding to YTD gains of around XX% after beating across all five business lines with revenues +9% y/y. Like JPM they saw better than expected equities and FICC trading up 15%. The banks wealth division a franchise that Fraser has sought for years to grow boosted revenue about X% driven largely by Citigold an investment platform for affluent clients who dont meet the firms private bank wealth thresholds"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T14:11Z 16.2K followers, 2060 engagements

"MarketWatch: Gold and silver cruised to an easy win in September as shown in the chart from Deutsche Bank. The Deutsche Bank analysts noted that gold's XXXX% September gain marked its strongest monthly performance since August 2011 when the U.S. faced a debt ceiling crisis and the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis was escalating. For the third quarter gold rose XXXX% while silver jumped XXXX% and platinum saw a XXXX% gain the analysts noted. Silver also leads the way in year-to-date returns up by more than XX% according to FactSet. And gold up XX% so far in 2025 is on track for its strongest"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-04T19:00Z 16.1K followers, 1630 engagements

"Prediction markets now see a XX% chance of the shutdown lasting past XX days (so through the end of the month) with an avg of XXXX days"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T03:02Z 16.2K followers, 2290 engagements

"Goldman: While some investors expect that the Fed cutting cycle will catalyze a rotation out of money market funds into equities but we expect household equity demand will be funded by income rather than an asset rotation. While according to data from EPFR current money market fund AUM totals roughly $XX trillion compared with $X trillion at the beginning of 2022 a portion of these inflows reflect deposit flight from traditional bank accounts. US household cash balances total just XX% of financial assets and this allocation has remained relatively stable in recent years. Furthermore while"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T11:15Z 16.2K followers, 9127 engagements

"$MS Another apparent positive data point from Morgan Stanley's results: Zero provisions for loan losses. Provision for credit losses decreased from a year ago primarily due to greater benefit of improved macroeconomic scenario in the quarter and lower provisions related to portfolio growth Morgan Stanley said in a statement Wednesday"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T19:30Z 16.2K followers, 2437 engagements

"BoA on SPX gamma: Over the last month SPX gamma has been historically elevated and averaged long $8.2bn (97th %ile since 2014). Commensurate with the high gamma in Sept our estimates indicate that option delta hedging may have potentially reduced S&P 1-month realized volatility by up to 1.3pts or XX% of the vol level. As of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$7.5bn (74th 1y %ile). So BoA like Tier1Alpha who I update on frequently during the week sees gamma as positive but off the levels of September. But at the 74th %ile (as of Friday) it should continue to provide a significant amount of"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T11:15Z 16.1K followers, 14.3K engagements

"In contrast to most of the other regional Fed Presidents we've heard from recently Boston Fed Pres Collins (2025 #FOMC voter) says her base case is "it may be appropriate to ease the policy rate a bit further this year" even if hiring picks up as she expects and inflation remains "elevated into next year" given she also expects inflation "to resume its gradual return to target over the medium term" as "the upside inflation risks I was concerned about a few months ago are more limited." She does note as Jefferson did earlier that it is a "highly uncertain environment and I do not rule out"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-30T19:58Z 16.2K followers, 4681 engagements

"I noted this in the morning Europe update but thought it was worth mentioning again. As CNBC notes the BoE has now had its "irrational exuberance" moment: On a number of measures equity market valuations appear stretched particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI) the the banks quarterly update on financial stability stated. This when combined with increasing concentration within market indices leaves equity markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T16:45Z 16.2K followers, 2206 engagements

"CNBC: The Invesco $QQQ Trust tracking the largest XXX stocks on the Nasdaq is on pace for a 107th straight close above its 50-day moving average (since late April). Assuming it holds to the close the streak would tie QQQs longest above its 50DMA since 2017. Over that span the ETF is up about XX% powered by breakouts in names like AppLovin Micron Technology Warner Bros. Discovery and Lam Research each of which has roughly doubled. Staying above a rising 50DMA for this long isnt common and usually signals durable momentum and buying on dips. But streaks dont often end quietly; when momentum"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-02T19:19Z 16.2K followers, 12.5K engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): we are long resources UK stocks to play AI bubble; bubbles = booms = best played via barbell of bubble (AI) and cheap cyclical assets (thats commodities today as AI devours commodities); price action valuation concentration speculation all frothy and lead indicators of inflation inflecting higher (ISM services prices paid rising) but every bubble in history popped by central bank tightening and no central bank in the world has hiked rates in past X months (Chart 3)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-04T11:00Z 16.2K followers, 12.6K engagements

"Markets Update - 10/15/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T22:01Z 16.2K followers, 5922 engagements

"$GOLD spot gold the most overbought since August 2020. $GLD"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T21:18Z 16.2K followers, 1729 engagements

"MarketWatch: A monday note from SentimentTrader indicated "a rare combination of events" occurred recently: In a 21-day period 1) the S&P XXX posted a new all-time high 2) booked its biggest daily percentage drop over a 125-session period and 3) the VIX saw a single-day rate of change that exceeds 31%. "When this rare combination of events has occurred in the past the S&P 500's performance has followed a distinct and potentially deceptive pattern" with its initial bounce giving way to "a period of significant weakness" the firm said. Historically a "significant portion of these signals were"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T19:41Z 16.2K followers, 9482 engagements

"With #FOMC Chair Powell not saying anything about current monetary pricing in his last scheduled speaking engagement before the FOMC blackout starts at the end of next week it seems he's implicitly endorsing current FOMC pricing which is for two more rate cuts. From last night's Update: FOMC rate cut pricing little changed after the FOMC minutes according to CMEs Fedwatch tool with 45bps of rate cuts priced for 2025 (-3bps from the post-FOMC highs on Oct 1st). An Oct cut is XX% priced and chances of X more cuts this year at 80%. Three are at 0%. Chance of no more cuts 1%. It got as high as 5%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T13:35Z 16.1K followers, 2700 engagements

"As always a nice collection of links/posts from @TheChartReport. There's been a lot of ink spilled on how speculative the rally has the past month or two and it doesn't get much more speculative than microcaps. Well that shows no signs of letting up in the near term as they hit the highest since February vs large caps as noted by @JC_ParetsX (which ratio is getting overbought on the daily RSI for the first time since 2021 as noted by @hihotraders) and look to reclaim the speculative mania high of March 2021 as noted by @MikeZaccardi"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T10:15Z 16.2K followers, 9374 engagements

"1-Day VIX like the VIX & VVIX pushed back higher but unlike those didnt reach Fridays highs and ended at XXXX. Still that level is implying an XXXX% move in the SPX next session"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T23:00Z 16.2K followers, 1637 engagements

"Citadel's Nohshad Shah (from Monday so I redid the corp bond spread chart for as of Tuesday's close): There are signs of concern for investorsmost notably the recent widening in HY and IG credit spreads (chart below) driven by lower quality consumer credit and parts of private credit (triggered by concerns about Tricolor/First Brands contagion)the continued rally in Gold which suggests a mix of both dollar diversification and a desire to move away from fiat currency (as well as now a momentum play)and the US government shutdown which presents meaningful risks should it extend for many weeks."
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T11:30Z 16.2K followers, 1331 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading little changed after SPX and Nasdaq closed at record highs Wed and Russell 2000 just under. Earnings reports from Delta and PepsiCo were both better than expected. Nvidia Corp. rose after the US approved several billion dollars worth of its chip exports to the United Arab Emirates. Costco shares also gained after the big-box retailer delivered solid September sales data. The calendar for today is again all about the Fed with the government shutdown cancelling economic reports. The main event though was anticlimactic as Chair Powell"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T13:30Z 16.2K followers, 1649 engagements

"MarketWatch: HSBCs chief multi-strategist Max Kettner expects another round of renewed selling in the US dollar and is reluctant to revise his bearish stance just yet even as he acknowledges that attacks on the Feds independence have not weakened the dollar as much as anticipated and also doesn't expect the Fed will ease the full XXX basis points over the next year that market consensus predicts. They say a return to U.S. exceptionalism a diminution of political uncertainty and increased demand for U.S. equities are prerequisites for a genuine reversal in sentiment and trading which they"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T10:00Z 16.2K followers, 1634 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JBHT $CRM $UAL $TSM $SE $TMUS $ARM $META $MU $SCHW $TRV $HPE $UBS $INFY $NIO"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-16T12:49Z 16.2K followers, 1231 engagements

"Citi: the recent $USDJPY move does not look in line with fundamentals raising FX intervention risk"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T09:30Z 16.2K followers, 2003 engagements

"Yardeni: The bubble in technology-related stocks today has less air than the one during 1999 (chart). Today the S&P XXX Information Technology and Communication Services sectors account for a record XXXX% of the index's market capitalization but also a record XXXX% of the index's forward earnings. During the Tech Bubble of 1999-2000 their combined market cap and forward earnings shares peaked at XXXX% and just 23.8%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T10:15Z 16.2K followers, 68.3K engagements

"NY Feds 3Q GDP Nowcast pushed to +2.55% as of Friday the strongest since they started tracking in May up +0.45% w/w with half of that coming from the Aug economic reports (led by personal consumption) and half on revisions to prior months. As a reminder they were well under for 2Q at +1.68% vs +3.0% actual first est after being too high for 1Q at +2.6% vs -XXX% (although they were closer in most other quarters)). As another reminder the model is dynamic and so adjusts in real time as data evolves) and parameter revisions added +0.02%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-29T12:00Z 16.2K followers, 4201 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are giving back much of Mondays bounce despite a swath of better than expected big bank earnings as tensions with China remain high after sanctions were placed on five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipping company Hanwha Ocean. The data calendar remains light with the shutdown but we will hear from a number of Fed officials today most importantly Chair Powell a little after noon ET at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics. In addition to Powell Governors Bowman and Waller are on the schedule as is Boston Fed"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T13:32Z 16.2K followers, 1877 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAY $RUN $MCG $NXT $NVO $WULF $TSLA $UNH $FSLR $VWSYF $BTAI"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-08-18T12:38Z 16.2K followers, 2070 engagements

"Ex-US one focus will be the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings starting Monday in Washington with the IMF releasing its global growth projections and financial stability report. In terms of economic reports well get China trade balance CPI and PPI UK unemployment and trade balance Japan industrial production and retail sales EU industrial production and trade balance and the second estimate of EU CPI (along with individual member countries). Perhaps more importantly though will be politics ranging from whether Pres Trumps latest social media post Sunday night will calm tensions with China to"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T02:19Z 16.2K followers, 3655 engagements

"In addition to Dell (see separate post) some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TMQ $AEHR $DLTR $AMD $IBM $STZ $ICE $GLXY $EAT $APP $RDS $DNNGY $BMRRY $BBVA $TEF $PLUG $AMD $FNMA $FMCC $MKC $TSLA"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T13:05Z 16.1K followers, 2675 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading solidly higher on the back of another slate of strong earnings this morning with Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley climbing more than X% in early trade after solid earnings beats Across the pond chip equipment maker ASML is up over X% after seeing better than expected AI bookings while luxury goods maker LVMH jumped XX% following an unexpected return to growth. The positive equity action comes despite continued tit-for-tat comments from China leadership and Pres Trump. The calendar for the day again dominated by the Fed"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T13:23Z 16.2K followers, 2097 engagements

"#FOMC rate cut pricing firmed Friday according to CMEs Fedwatch tool with 49bps of rate cuts priced for 2025 (now the highest since the Sept FOMC meeting). An Oct cut is XX% priced (down from XXX% with a X% chance of a 50bps cut Oct 1st) and chances of X more cuts this year jumped to XX% (the highest post-FOMC). Three are at 0%. Chance of no more cuts has fallen to X% as well. It got as high as X% two weeks ago. Pricing for 2026 added 7bps to 70bps (also the highest since the Sept FOMC) pushing total cuts through Dec XX +12bps to 120bps the joint highest this year"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T15:30Z 16.1K followers, 2244 engagements

"Nomura's McElligott says the "trailing multi-month Vol Crushcertainly within Equities spacehas been a function of bunches of things: o Prolific Equities Vol Supply (Structured Notes / Exo issuance ATHs Overwrite / Underwrite Premium Income AUM to ATHs QIS VRP product growth Vol pods / Dispersion trade crowding) o Destroyed single-stock Correlation (via ongoing persistently high performance spread bifurcation of thematic Winners / Losers in Stocks) o Perception of Tariff worst-case scenarios having been avoided as we emerge from the Uncertainty period . o Clear Central Bank dovish capitulation"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T10:59Z 16.1K followers, 5754 engagements

"$DAL Delta shares jumping +7.4% pre-market edging back into the green for the year after raising guidance for the current quarter on continued strong premium travel demand (even as there's been weakening in the main cabin) and saying next year "Delta is well positioned to deliver top-line growth margin expansion and earnings improvement consistent with our long-term financial framework CEO Ed Bastian said in an earnings release. Starting in July cash sales picked up Bastian said in an interview. Premium-travel demand continued to outshine the coach cabin where though revenues fell. Sales from"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T12:38Z 16.2K followers, 4437 engagements

"And the large drop-off in gamma above the 6800 strike has unsurprisingly caught the attention of Nomura's McElligott (this was in all caps in his note): Todays equities index options dealer gamma positioning shows large short gamma at the 6800 strike as potential upside acceleration point (until it too inevitably fills in with VRP options supply) evidencing how investors had to add OTM upside recently to hedge right-tail escape velocity risks"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T11:30Z 16.1K followers, 9006 engagements

"Weekly chart of bitcoin continues to hint that a deeper pullback might be in store but if it lines up with what happened at the start of the year it will be a buyable dip. $BTC"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T18:30Z 16.1K followers, 1936 engagements

"In 2021 these pockets of momentum chasing reversed sharply but the broader market saw just modest pullbacks of X and X% in its strong steady rally out to year-end"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T14:00Z 16.2K followers, 10.6K engagements

"US equity indices opened solidly higher following Sunday's de-escalation by Pres Trump with the gains building as the day progressed and indices closing at or near the highs led by the RUT's +2.7%. Nasdaq was +2.1% SPX +1.6% DJIA +1.3%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T20:10Z 16.2K followers, 1825 engagements

"US economic data was going to lighten up regardless next week and it will do so incrementally more as long as the shutdown drags on. Given that lighter calendar well only be missing three reports due to the shutdown in the Aug trade balance and wholesale inventories along with weekly jobless claims. Well still get (I think) Aug Consumer Credit and the Oct NY Fed consumer survey (as theyre produced by the Fed which is not shut down as are the FOMC minutes on Wed) UMich preliminary Oct consumer sentiment and weekly mortgage applications and EIA petroleum inventories (EIA also says they have"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T00:42Z 16.2K followers, 1592 engagements

"1-Day VIX edged down to XXXX. That level is implying a XXXX% move in the SPX Thurs"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T23:00Z 16.2K followers, 1505 engagements

"Morningstar: A basket of XX AI stocks selected by Morningstar equity analysts rose XXXX% in the third quarter which followed a XXXX% surge in the second. The third quarters gain doubled the XXX% return on the overall stock market as measured by the Morningstar US Market Index and it was ahead of the XXXX% return on the Morningstar US Technology Index. Leading contributors to the rally included Corning GLW up XXXX% and Teradyne TER which advanced 49.5%. Of the XX stocks in the basket XX or XX% outperformed the market during the quarter with XX rising more than 20%. The majority of the"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T18:30Z 16.1K followers, 1478 engagements

"The Week Ahead - 10/12/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T01:58Z 16.2K followers, 10.5K engagements

"BBG notes that spot vs 3-mth forwards on the VIX inverted on Tuesday for the first time since June and remains relatively flat (meaning investors are expecting volatility to remain elevated in the near term). While"almost all stock-market troughs in the past have occurred during periods of backwardation when the VIX curve is higher in the near-term that typically happens when the S&P XXX has suffered a much steeper correction beyond X% from its record. The good news for bulls is its a mild inversion for now." Its not a warning sign said Chris Murphy co-head of derivatives strategy at"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-16T11:45Z 16.2K followers, XXX engagements

"Goldman: We have seen a dramatic uptick in spot vs implied volatility correlation (spot up vol up // spot down vol down). Over the last XX sessions SPX spot and 1-month implied volatility have had a realized correlation of almost X. This phenomenon is unusual and indicative of chase on up days and unwind of hedges on down days (we have seen this in our flows)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-29T18:00Z 16.2K followers, 3297 engagements

"More from the UMich survey: As also is probably unsurprising "stock market participants particularly those with larger holdings typically have more favorable levels of sentiment than non-participants with sentiment gaps by wealth widening substantially between 2023 and 2024. However amid heightened awareness and concern over trade policy developments this year sentiment fell for all these groups and converged in April and May 2025. "Since May 2025 sentiment has lifted up for stock market participants with a particularly strong rise for participants with the top XX% of holdings. In contrast"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T15:59Z 16.2K followers, 11.9K engagements

"BoAs client equity flows last week saw net selling of US equities for a fourth straight week although decelerating to a still sizeable -$3.0bn as equity ETFs turned negative (-$2.2bn) to join the continued outflows from single stocks (-$0.8bn after -$5.7bn the prior week the most since October and after -$5.2bn the week before that the 3rd largest of any 2-week period since 08.). Remember these exclude corporates now. Institutional clients which had been heavy buyers for seven weeks until three weeks ago continued their selling although decelerating to -$0.4bn from -$3.6bn the prior week (the"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T10:45Z 16.1K followers, 4456 engagements

"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) jumped to XXXXX Friday the highest close since April and materially above Nomuras Charlie McElligotts stress level of XXX (consistent with moderate daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100)). The uptrend line from the March lows continues to hold"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T22:00Z 16.1K followers, 2659 engagements

"Following the relatively dovish speech from Philadelphia Fed Pres Paulson who is a 2026 voting member pricing from the CME Fedwatch tool for 2026 #FOMC cuts moved up to 72bps the highest this year. Added to the 48bps seen for 2025 that would mean 121bps of cuts through the end of next year vs the dot plot's 83bps (avg dot)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T10:15Z 16.2K followers, 3292 engagements

"In terms of revenues analysts have also raised their estimates during the quarter to XXX% y/y growth compared to the expectations for revenue growth of XXX% on June XX. That would mark the second-highest growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%) trailing only Q2 2025. It will also mark the 20th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Ten sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues led by the Information Technology Communication Services and Health Care sectors. On the other hand the Energy sector is the only sector predicted to report a"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T03:16Z 16.2K followers, 1855 engagements

"I like to look at the impact of moves in leveraged ETFs on the overall market as a barometer of risk appetite (the greater the impact the more investors have in these ETFs which I think of as higher risk) and both SPX and NDX leveraged ETFs fell back from 52-week highs to the least in about a month but much closer to the YTD highs than the lows"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T14:20Z 16.2K followers, 5140 engagements

"Goldman: While broad measures of positioning remain constrained some pockets of the equity market have recently demonstrated greater signs of investor exuberance. For example Bitcoin-sensitive equities and quantum computing stocks have risen by more than XX% and XX% respectively since the start of August. Similarly a basket of liquid recent IPOs and a basket of stocks most popular among retail traders are each up 14%. Growing investor risk appetite has also been reflected in the IPO market with the average IPO this year returning XX% on its first day of trading. This return has only been"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-30T11:45Z 16.2K followers, 4613 engagements

"Fed Chair Powell in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics (link below) does little to knock down the probabilities for an October #FOMC cut (which are now at XX% just a touch below where they were this morning) saying "based on the data that we do have it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago" even as pre-shutdown data "show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." "Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T16:46Z 16.2K followers, 4066 engagements

"Torbjorn Tornqvist chief executive officer of Gunvor Group also said in an interview in London on Tuesday that he sees signs of surplus emerging in crude markets: It looks like we are now moving into a bit of a different market Tornqvist said. We have heard it before and people have been burned on that. But this time around at this stage I think theres a bit more substance in the oversupplied narrative. Theres a great deal more oil hitting the market at the time where there is no additional demand for it said Tornqvist who co-founded Gunvor and helped turn it to be one of the biggest traders"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T17:00Z 16.2K followers, 2760 engagements

"$BAC Bank of America seeing a reaction more similar to what we saw with Citi and Wells (as opposed to JPM) up +3.8% in the premarket as like its peers it rode strong investment banking and equity and FICC results to an easy beat. The bank also saw NII improve by XXX% vs the XXX% expected and loan balances rose to almost $XXXX trillion at the end of the third quarter up XXX% from a year earlier and more than analysts estimates of $XXXX trillion. Strong loan and deposit growth coupled with effective balance sheet positioning resulted in record net interest income Chief Executive Officer Brian"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T12:42Z 16.2K followers, 1749 engagements

"Consensus expects Tech to drive 3Q growth: +20% YoY vs. +3% for the rest of the index; Nvidia is expected to contribute XX% of growth"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T18:30Z 16.2K followers, 3549 engagements

"The yen slid to as low as XXXXXX against the greenback the weakest since February and fell to a fresh record low against the euro dating back to the common currencys inception in 1999 as markets curbed their expectations for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike in the aftermath of the surprise victory by pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichis. Just weeks before the BOJs next meeting one of Takaichis closest economic advisers said that a rate increase in December would be better timed. We are only getting started on what the post-LDP leadership change implies for fiscal and monetary policy said"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T01:28Z 16.2K followers, 3493 engagements

"Goldman: We expect households will represent the largest source of equity demand next year accounting for $XXX billion of net US equity purchases. Household wealth consumer confidence and cash yields have helped explain household equity flows in recent decades and point to continued demand in 2026. Consumer balance sheets remain healthy the Fed is cutting rates and our economists' forecasts for declining unemployment and slowing inflation next year bode well for consumer confidence. Notably though they see foreign investors more than halving their demand and selling from funds"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T12:00Z 16.2K followers, 12.2K engagements

"$WFC The best performer though in terms of today's big bank reports is former laggard Wells Fargo despite not having the trading heft of its rivals and missing slightly on NII as it raises its ROTCE (Return on Tangible Common Equity) target to 17-18% from XX% following the Fed removing an asset cap in June. Investment-banking fees were also an unexpected bright spot at $XXX million up XX% from a year earlier. As of the end of September Wells Fargo ranked seventh in global deal advisement this year leaping from 17th in the same period in 2024 according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T14:23Z 16.2K followers, 4540 engagements

"BBG: US stocks are at risk of sinking as much as XX% if trade tensions between the US and China arent resolved before a November deadline according to Morgan Stanleys Michael Wilson. If associated trade uncertainty/volatility continue into early November we could see a larger correction than most are expecting Wilson wrote in a note. He forecast that the S&P XXX Index could drop to between 6027 and 5800 points in a bear-case scenario. That implies a selloff of between X% and XX% from Fridays close. "A XX% retracement of the first leg up would be 6027 XX% below recent highs" Wilson wrote."
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T14:12Z 16.2K followers, 2736 engagements

"BoA (Harnett): US data weakening sufficiently to allow Fed to cut crediblyJuly construction spending down XXX% YoY (despite AI data center boom = X% of total $2.1tn) and rate-sensitive recessionary right now (Chart 3) US house prices down in past X months JOLTS labor market data consistent with lower Fed funds (Chart 5) AI jobs disruption starting (graduate unemployment rate up X% to X% past XX months) so absent 2nd wave inflation and/or negative payrolls that augers jump in US deficit from X% to XX% of GDP/debt default worries we say US bond yields heading toward X% not X% and this"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-06T14:40Z 16.1K followers, 12.2K engagements

"The 2yr yield more sensitive to FOMC rate cut pricing dropped -5bps Tuesday after reopening from the Monday holiday to XXXX% the lowest since Sept XX. It is -68bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so calling loudly for rate cuts. The red line (the Effective Fed Funds Rate) which edged up another basis point Thursday after moving up a basis point on Sept 23rd also was unch"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T21:21Z 16.2K followers, 1834 engagements

"Gold (/GC) weekly chart continues to be a spectacle. Hasnt been this overbought since August 2019 and the weekly MACD has literally broken the chart (we havent seen the MACD over much over XXX ever including the spectacular 1979-80 run which took the RSI to 95). $GLD"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T17:30Z 16.2K followers, 2655 engagements

"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) a very solid XXXX% the best since Aug 22nd in line with the XXXX% gain in the index which was the best since then as well"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T21:02Z 16.2K followers, 3792 engagements

"And Charlie notes things are ripe for a "Vol rip": As previously-noted theres . the pesky Vega Rebalancing impact of VIX ETNs + VIX Option Dealer hedgingwhere less nasty now VIX spot XX but any escalation of the Spot selloff / iVol squeeze further towards that VIX XX and beyond level into the close will see a nasty chunk of VIX Vega (and-or SPX Downside / Skew) to buy"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T12:00Z 16.1K followers, 5365 engagements

"France's CAC40 has reversed losses after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said he would propose suspending the application of the countrys pension reform sacrificing one of President Emmanuel Macrons key economic measures in an endgame bid for political stability. I will propose to Parliament that we suspend the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election he said. There will be no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T13:44Z 16.2K followers, 4264 engagements