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@neilksethi Avatar @neilksethi Neil Sethi

US equity markets are experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends, with strong earnings reports from major companies such as banks and tech firms, but also concerns about volatility and potential economic uncertainty. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with some investors expecting a cut as early as October. Despite some bearish sentiments, many strategists remain constructive on the market, citing strengthening corporate fundamentals and a historically strong November.

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Social Influence

Social category influence finance XXXXX% stocks XXXXX% technology brands XXXX% cryptocurrencies #4525 exchanges #1340 countries XXXX% currencies XXXX% fashion brands XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% automotive brands XXXX%

Social topic influence stocks #2045, spx #138, to the 4.21%, level 3.68%, ai 3.68%, the first 3.68%, gain 3.16%, vix #116, nasdaq #155, $dxy #11

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @finvizcom @grok @entropicalm @xaviercomelli @shlonjay @livesquawk @makrotrader @thechartreport @dailychartbooks @timmerfidelity @dailychartbook @mrgoatmarkets @nety_bar @isabelnet_sa @kochmanmatthew @makro_trader @4sightai @skepticalcrypto @sethcl @banana_ventures

Top assets mentioned Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Bitcoin (BTC) Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) iShares BTC Trust (IBIT) Salesforce Inc (CRM) UiPath, Inc. (PATH) PVH Corp (PVH) Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW) Sleepless AI (AI) Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) Cream (CRM) Strategy (MSTR) Netflix Inc (NFLX) Decentral Games (DG) Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) IBM (IBM) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) SPX6900 (SPX) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Robonomics Network (XRT)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"$AMZN Amazon joins the debt party preparing to raise $15bn in bonds to fund capex and buybacks. The offering comes after Google parent Alphabet earlier this month sold $25bn of debt in the US and Europe Meta Platforms issued $30bn last month the biggest such offering of the year and Oracle raised $18bn in September. But investors are far from concerned with reports of $80bn of demand for Amazon's offering according to BBG and pricing discussions for the longest portion of the deal a 40-year bond tightened to XXXX percentage point above Treasuries from XXXX percentage point initially the"
X Link 2025-11-17T20:20Z 18.7K followers, 3108 engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): peak-to-trough bitcoin -XX% ether -XX% (Chart 2); crypto just XXX% of institutional asset allocation (per BofA Nov FMS) but record XX retail inflows to crypto ($46bn) derivatives now XX% of crypto trading volumefrontier of liquidity & speculation will be first to sniff out Fed coming to rescue"
X Link 2025-11-21T12:45Z 18.7K followers, 1881 engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): On Commodities BofA forecasts a fall in Brent oil price to $60/bbl rise in gold price to $4500/oz rise in copper price to $12500/t. Only twice has gold racked up X consecutive years of double-digit returns (1971-74 & 1977-80) but it will have a go in XX as investors increase low gold allocations (2.5% institutional & XXX% private client) as hedge (as is crypto) against political populism debasement (most likely Japan) and flaring China-Japan geopolitical tensions; we say gold price peaks when politicians desperate to reduce deficits force central banks to revalue gold reserves"
X Link 2025-11-29T14:20Z 18.7K followers, 2848 engagements

"While volumes were light Friday what volume we did see was quite good with positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) on the NYSE at XXXX% up from XXXX% Thursday even as the index gain moderated to +0.51% from +0.75% while over on the Nasdaq positive volume moved to XXXX% from XXXX% even as the index gain moderated to +0.65% from +0.82%"
X Link 2025-11-29T19:30Z 18.7K followers, 1830 engagements

"The monthly $DXY chart is mixed as while the monthly MACD remains in go short positioning the 50-month moving average is still moving higher (but is also above the current level)"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:59Z 18.7K followers, 1769 engagements

"With the increased volatility of late (remember upside volatility is the same as downside volatility to vol targeters) BoAs estimate of vol control (which they estimate at around $200bn of AUM) equity exposure fell under the October lows to the least since Aug"
X Link 2025-12-01T12:59Z 18.8K followers, 23.9K engagements

"$XRT State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF is bucking the negative day in stocks up +0.6% taking its gain over the past X sessions to XXXX% just a hair beneath the XXXX% in June 2023. If that's exceeded it will be the best since the XX% gain in Feb '23"
X Link 2025-12-01T19:59Z 18.8K followers, 1357 engagements

"JPM: The U.S. business cycle (JPM QMI) is in a slowdown after a three-year upswing but this does not signal an end-cycle contraction. Recent softness is mainly due to the expected GDP hit from the government shutdown with significant offsets going into early next year: pent-up demand following the government shutdown OBBBA-related tax refunds increased AI capex and 150bps of rate cuts (from September 2024) still filtering through the economy. Real Growth indicators remain mostly in expansion with reasonably healthy consumer and corporate balance sheets"
X Link 2025-12-02T16:59Z 18.8K followers, 12.7K engagements

"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) very weak only improving slightly to XXXX% from XXXX% despite the loss in the index dropping to -XXXX% from -0.72%. Hopefully thats just a one-day thing"
X Link 2025-12-02T22:51Z 18.7K followers, 3334 engagements

"Nasdaq positive volume (% of total volume that was in advancing stocks) also weak (although not as bad as the NYSE) coming in at XXXX% not great for the +0.59% gain in that index. Compare to Friday when it was XXXX% on a slightly larger +0.65% gain (circle)"
X Link 2025-12-02T22:54Z 18.7K followers, 2053 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $AEO $MRVL $ACHC $OKTA $CXM $MCHP $ASAN $M $CRWD $BOX $GTLB $PSTG $DAL $UBER $RBC $DLTR"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:06Z 18.8K followers, 1936 engagements

"The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed Wed as it continued to trade sideways for a fifth session. Major equity indices in the Asia-Pacific were again mixed. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japans Nikkei: +1.1% Hong Kongs Hang Seng: -XXX% Chinas Shanghai Composite: -XXX% Indias Sensex: UNCH South Koreas Kospi: +1.0% Australias ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%. In news: Taiwan expressed thanks and China was upset on Wednesday after President Donald Trump signed into law legislation requiring the U.S. State Department to regularly review and update guidelines on how the United"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:51Z 18.8K followers, 1696 engagements

"$DXY dollar index on track for its 7th straight decline the longest since a similar length streak in July 2020. This one has been much more mild in terms of total losses though with less than half the decline"
X Link 2025-12-03T20:28Z 18.7K followers, 3309 engagements

"BCA: The X percent increase in the unemployment rate through the past two-and-a-half years has been at the most glacial paceeverand therefore not recessionary. A phase-shift to recession happens because feedback loops kick in accelerating the increase in unemployment. Specifically a lack of hiring is made much worse by the start of large-scale firing. Hence the phase-shift to recession requires large-scale firing. Put the other way: No large-scale firing means no labour market recession. (italics in the original)"
X Link 2025-12-05T13:00Z 18.8K followers, 5351 engagements

"BBG: BlackRock Inc.s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF $IBIT recorded its longest streak of weekly withdrawals since debuting in January 2024. Investors pulled more than $XXX billion from the exchange-traded fund over the five weeks to Nov. XX according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With an additional $XXX million of redemptions on Thursday the ETF is now on pace for a sixth straight week of net outflows"
X Link 2025-12-05T20:30Z 18.7K followers, 2244 engagements

"CNBC: $XLK the SPDR S&P Information Technology ETF was up for a 10th straight session Friday (gaining around XXX% over that time) its longest streak since Sep 2020. Interestingly that streak was followed immediately by a -XX% pullback"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:30Z 18.8K followers, 3675 engagements

"Jeff Hirsch editor of the Stock Traders Almanac ascribes what is normally a choppy first half of December to tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring as a modest rally through the around the sixth trading day has also fizzled going into mid-month. It is around this point that holiday cheer tends to kick in (and tax-loss selling pressure generally fades) propelling the indexes higher with a pause near month-end. Post-election year Decembers have followed a similar path but with varying degrees of over- and under-performance"
X Link 2025-12-08T12:45Z 18.8K followers, 2716 engagements

"Oppenheimer Asset Managements John Stoltzfus sees the S&P XXX rallying XX% next year to 8100 becoming the most optimistic forecaster among those tracked by Bloomberg for a third year running. Last year he called for a 7100 finish (which he did cut in April before returning to 7100 in July). At the core of what lies ahead for our 2026 target price to be achieved lies monetary policy fiscal policy and the continuing progress of innovation and corporate earnings growth all of which have been supportive of stock prices and are key to growing earnings and revenues in the year ahead the team said."
X Link 2025-12-08T15:40Z 18.8K followers, 3600 engagements

"Nov NY Fed consumer survey (I like better than UMich b/c it follows a consistent panel of 1300 h/hs) saw inflation expectations hold steady across the board: -At the 1-yr horizon for a second month at XXX% (down from XXX% in Apr which was the highest since Oct 23) -At the 3-yr horizon for a sixth month at XXX% (down from XXX% in Apr the highest since July 2022) -At the 5-yr horizon for a third month at a joint record high of XXX% (which has been hit several times since the series started in Jan 22). UMich was at XXX% for 1-yr expectations and XXX% for 5+ yr expectations. Also the measure of"
X Link 2025-12-08T19:53Z 18.8K followers, 2258 engagements

"Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $SNOW $PATH $PVH $AI $FIVE $CRM"
X Link 2025-12-03T23:04Z 18.8K followers, 2909 engagements

"BoA on SPX gamma: SPX dealer gamma was positive but small in size last week (avg. of +$3.3bn) and ended Thursday at +$2.6bn (47th 1y %ile). Despite still being several weeks away from expiry the 31-Dec year-end options have the largest gamma footprint across all tenors. In particular the 31-Dec 7000 strike has $3bn of long gamma currently outstanding. If the S&P rallies towards the 7000 level into year-end (1.9% above current spot) there is room for gamma to grow materially and potentially act as dampening factor on realized vol during what is already a seasonally low vol time period. So BoA"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:15Z 18.8K followers, 19.3K engagements

"Factset: 2025 earnings expectations on a numeric basis saw a bump higher two weeks ago following NVDAs earnings and edged a little higher last week to $XXXXXX (+$0.60 the past X weeks). That represents a very healthy growth rate of +11.9% y/y down just -XXX% since Dec 31st (much less deterioration than normal but around average for non-recessions). 2026 earnings expectations have seen an even bigger improvement to $XXXXXX (+$2.61 the past X weeks) representing even stronger XXXX% y/y growth down just -XXX% from the start of the year"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:15Z 18.8K followers, 2243 engagements

"US equity indices drifted little changed pre-FOMC w/all but Nas w/small gains. They edged higher after the statement/SEP ("better than feared") then pushed higher again during Powell before falling back w/EOD selling. All + though led by RUT +1.3% Nas lagged +0.3%"
X Link 2025-12-10T21:26Z 18.8K followers, 6881 engagements

"The $DXY dollar index (which as a reminder is very euro heavy (57%) and not trade weighted) fell back to the lowest close since Oct 17th. The daily MACD and RSI remain negative with the former now crossing to go short territory"
X Link 2025-12-10T22:46Z 18.8K followers, 1406 engagements

"Goldman: Mutual funds have increased their equity market exposure in recent months in a struggle to keep up with benchmarks. Only XX% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD unrounded the least since 2019 compared to an average of XX% since 2007. In response funds have reduced their cash allocations to XXX% of assets a record low"
X Link 2025-11-23T13:20Z 18.8K followers, 10.7K engagements

"Ex-US highlights include global PMIs EU CPI and GDP and German factory orders along with French and Spanish industrial production Canada employment UK credit data Japan quarterly updates on GDP aggregates and policy rate decisions in India and Poland among others"
X Link 2025-12-01T02:43Z 18.8K followers, 2599 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $MDB $MSTR $JANX $SIG $UNFI $NET $CRDO $SIX $TER $BLCO $WBD $NFLX $BNS $BAYRY $NEM $DIS $GOOG"
X Link 2025-12-02T13:44Z 18.8K followers, 1987 engagements

"FT: The Treasury department solicited feedback on Hassett and other candidates in one-on-one conversations with executives at major Wall Street banks asset management giants and other big players in the US debt market in November according to several people familiar with the conversations. Several of the market participants the Treasury contacted said they were worried about Hassetts alignment with Trump who has insisted rates should be cut sharply and has called Powell a 'stubborn mule' for the central banks decision to only modestly lower borrowing costs this year." Some would have"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:59Z 18.8K followers, 2041 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SNOW $PATH $PVH $AI $FIVE $CRM $TOST $NCNO $HRL $DG $META $KR $TD $BMO $NVO $RIO $LEN $CCS $TOL $PSKY $WBD"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:59Z 18.8K followers, 1841 engagements

"@Makro_trader It's the same idea. Both in confirmed uptrends. Why quibble"
X Link 2025-12-04T21:14Z 18.8K followers, XX engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): The Zeitgeist: Trump runs it hot oil bounces post Russia-Ukraine fix China keeps yuan cheap soon all the commodity charts will look like gold; what LatAm stocks telling you. The Biggest Picture: commodities like it hot GFC caused monetary excess fiscal austerity = bonds smoked commodities in era of secular stagnation; but COVID caused fiscal excess less monetary excess plus end of globalization = commodities smoking bonds in 2020s era of political populism & inflationary growth (Charts X & 5)"
X Link 2025-12-06T12:00Z 18.8K followers, 39.3K engagements

"BBG; The VIX index of expected equity volatility is hovering near year-to-date lows. The MOVE Index of expected bond volatility just touched its quietest level since early 2021. Tail-risk hedges have been unwound. And Bank of America's GFSI Market Risk indicator which tracks implied risk across a broad sample of asset classes is back in negative territory and hovering near where it stood before the Fed began raising rates (chart). Mandy Xu who heads ups derivatives market intelligence at the CBOE sees the calm as fragile. A divided Fed or even a hawkish cut could be a catalyst for more"
X Link 2025-12-06T18:59Z 18.8K followers, 5077 engagements

"Citadel's Rubner: The U.S. equity market has meaningfully healed after a period dominated by non-fundamental technical dynamics. With XX trading days left in 2025 our stance remains constructive. The supply and demand mismatch has turned decisively in favor of the buyside and if indices push to new highs FOMO-driven chase behavior could accelerate. Retail investors this years primary price setter continue to hold the hottest hand and remain fully engaged. I spent this week meeting clients across two cities and the feedback was strikingly consistent: What is the playbook for 2026 All clear"
X Link 2025-12-07T13:00Z 18.8K followers, 33K engagements

"@shlonjay It's not "stretched" if it's rising in line with the underlying. It's like saying home mortgage borrowers are "stretched" because home loans are bigger ignoring the fact that homes are also worth more"
X Link 2025-12-07T23:57Z 18.8K followers, XX engagements

"Q3 earnings season will continue to wrap-up this week with again X SPX components (per TradingView) but two in particular will be of note in $1tn Broadcom (AVGO) and former near $1tn Oracle (ORCL). The former will be closely monitored for updates on the AI ecosystem while the latter faces increased investor scrutiny on its debt plans cash flow trajectory and $300B OpenAI deal after the stock retraced all of its gains following that announcement. And there are two other reporters $100bn in market cap who will also get some attention in Costco (COST) and Adobe (ADBE)"
X Link 2025-12-08T00:30Z 18.8K followers, 2892 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are indicated to open modestly higher as they look for a third week of gains and record highs with news boosting some tech names. Broadcom shares were up almost X% on the heels of The Information reporting that Microsoft is discussing designing custom chips with the chipmaker. Confluent shares surged XX% after IBM said that its going to acquire the company in an $XX billion deal which is expected to close by the middle of 2026. President Trump meanwhile raised potential antitrust concerns on the planned takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. by"
X Link 2025-12-08T14:02Z 18.8K followers, 1923 engagements

"The MSCI Asia Pacific Index started the week +0.2% up for a fifth straight session to a 3-week high. Major equity indices in the Asia-Pacific ended Monday on a mixed note. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japans Nikkei: +0.1% Hong Kongs Hang Seng: -XXX% Chinas Shanghai Composite: +0.5% Indias Sensex: -XXX% South Koreas Kospi: +1.3% Australias All Ordinaries: -0.1%. In news: Beijing and Tokyo traded complaints against each other as their simmering diplomatic spat intensified over the weekend after Chinese fighter aircraft allegedly trained their fire-control radar systems on"
X Link 2025-12-08T14:17Z 18.8K followers, 1854 engagements

"$XLK the SPDR S&P Information Technology ETF on pace for an 11th straight positive session Monday which would be its longest winning streak since its record 13-session streak in Feb 2017 (charts as of 10.30am ET)"
X Link 2025-12-08T16:29Z 18.8K followers, 8215 engagements

"We got the first of our three #UST auctions this week with $58bn in 3yrs. First note the 3yr auctions for whatever reason had been some of the weakest over the XX auctions entering Sept tailing (yield above exps) X of those. Sept though was a different story with a very strong auction and while Oct was more mixed Nov was solid leading into todays auction which continued the trend of much better auctions post-August. Looking at the internals the bid/cover might have been the weakest part coming in at XXXX down from XXXX in Nov but that was the best since Aug XX and it was still a touch better"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:39Z 18.8K followers, 2345 engagements

"The 10yr #UST yield up for a third session to XXXX% the highest close since Sept 26th"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:45Z 18.8K followers, 3469 engagements

"MarketWatch: JPM strategist Mislav Matejka outlined his constructive approach on global equities for 2026 (but focusing ex-US) in a strategy note published Monday. Broadly speaking JPMorgan foresees bond yields on the lower side in 2026 owing to labor market uncertainty reduced trade uncertainty and a rapid AI rollout in the U.S. Elsewhere an improvement in Chinese growth prospects and a big pickup in European fiscal spending should give stock markets an upward impetus Matejka writes. With U.S. markets looking pricey on a XX price-to-earnings ratio JPMorgan retains its overweight preference"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:00Z 18.8K followers, 1324 engagements

"MarketWatch: Tom Lee Fundstrat's head of research says the Fed's midweek interest rate decision will be a "market clearing event" that once concluded will allow investors to focus on a seasonal market rally. He gives six reasons why stocks should climb into year-end: - The Fed will not only have cut borrowing costs but quantitative tightening will end in December. - The U.S. economy remains healthy and there is pent up demand. Manufacturing and the housing market should improve. - With the government shutdown over more economic data can flow "restoring visibility." - With XX% of fund managers"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:38Z 18.8K followers, 2430 engagements

"MarketWatch: The CBOE volatility index known as Wall Street's fear gauge briefly topped XX on Tuesday. Technical strategist at Piper Sandler looked into what happened when that level has been breached before. The average 12-month gain in the S&P XXX is a paltry XXXX% though the median is a respectable XXXX% positive XX% of the time in the XXX instances since 1990 when the VIX broke through XX. Shorter time periods though have better relative results"
X Link 2025-11-20T19:59Z 18.8K followers, 2374 engagements

"Goldman: Similar to our expectation for October we expect the government shutdown to have a limited impact on the quality of the November payrolls data. Most responses to the establishment survey are submitted electronically and can be sent at any time. And while collection via other methods would have begun slightly earlier absent the shutdown responses are regularly received late: about one-third of establishment survey responses for a given month have been received late on average since 2024. Crucially the left panel of Exhibit X shows that the December revision to November payroll growth"
X Link 2025-11-29T15:30Z 18.8K followers, 1612 engagements

"MarketWatch: "Barring a major economic contraction we expect margins to remain strong in 2026 and 2027" said Colas. This should support the S&P 500s "current lofty price/earnings multiples and even allow them to drift higher if margins can continue their upward trajectory" Nicholas Colas co-founder of DataTrek Research wrote in a Tuesday note. "This implies that structural returns on capital are also high and that supports current lofty US large cap valuations" Colas said. Record high net margins merit record high valuations so the data here goes a long way to explaining why the S&P 500s"
X Link 2025-11-29T18:58Z 18.8K followers, 2961 engagements

"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) has seen an even larger pullback now down to XXXX the lowest close since late Aug and well below Nomuras Charlie McElligotts stress level of XXX (now consistent with moderate daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100)). More notably it is the furthest its been under that trendline running back to March that it has bounced from numerous times since then and its never closed two consecutive closes under. That would seem to indicate markets are priced for a subdued VIX into year-end"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:21Z 18.8K followers, 6586 engagements

"ICI data on money market flows reversed back to inflows in the week through Nov 25th coming in at +$45.5bn (after -$15.7bn the prior week). And while institutions (who hold XX% of MMF assets) had seen outflows the prior two weeks they reversed those with a +$43.7bn inflow which now takes their total inflows over the past XX weeks to +$324.7bn. Retail in contrast added +$1.8bn (+$67.6bn the past XX weeks). Total MMF assets at a new record $7.57tn"
X Link 2025-12-01T18:30Z 18.8K followers, 1918 engagements

"The Fed though will be the star of the show in the upcoming week with the decision on Wednesday along with a new statement SEP and press conference. Markets (and most commentators) have firmly settled on a hawkish cut meaning well get a 25bps cut but a lean towards a slower pace of cuts thereafter (current pricing has just around a XX% chance that we get cuts in both Dec & Jan) with plenty of language about data dependency etc. That said many (like Goldman & BoA) think the Fed wont want to box itself in so wont rule out a Jan cut. Were also likely to get dueling dissents again with Miran a"
X Link 2025-12-08T01:30Z 18.8K followers, 1698 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & Note CNBC is reporting that IBMdid announce Monday that it is acquiring Confluentin a deal worth $XX billion. $IBM $CFLT $AVGO $MRVL $LITE $CVNA $CRH $BRK $CRWV $GIVE $TSLA $MSFT $NEE $GOOG $NFLX $WBD $FIX $UL"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:51Z 18.8K followers, 2117 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $AVAV $GME $CBRL $BRZE $GEV"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:20Z 18.8K followers, 2778 engagements

"Tier1Alpha: SPX positioning remains skewed towards positive gamma providing the conditions for lower vol. Yesterday was the 9th day of consolidation for SPX between the 6800-6900 strikes with a high to low spread of just XXX% over that window. As we would expect these counter-trend hedging flows have continued to suppress realized vol with the 10-day volatility falling to XXXX and the 1-month vol down to XXXXX. . Our Probable volatility bands are pricing in a range of outcomes for today with resistance likely around the 6950 strike and broader support down at 6750. It's important to note that"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:31Z 18.8K followers, 1209 engagements

"Initial jobless claims drop -27k to the least since Sept XX at just 191k (SA) in the week through Nov 29th. They are just +2k above the 50-yr lows in Sep XX (189k). The four-wk avg is 215k (-4k y/y). Note though claims are generally noisy around holidays so I would bet well see it reverse back next week. Still though thats quite a number. Continuing claims (SA) in the week through Nov 22nd (1-week lagged) also fell back a smaller -4k to 1.939mn the least since Oct 4th after a -17k revision to the prior week. The 4wk moving avg at 1.952mn though is just off the highest since Nov XX hit the"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:54Z 18.8K followers, 4068 engagements

"BBG: Yields on a Bloomberg global gauge of long-dated government bonds have risen to XXXX% the highest since June 2009 as traders price out global rate cuts and start to price in more hikes. Those including a XX% chance of a hike from the European Central Bank an all-but-certain hike this month in Japan and two quarter-point increases next year in Australia. This has also pushed the differential between 10+ year yields and 1-3 year to the steepest since 2016. A disappointment trade is unfolding across several developed markets as investors come to grips with central bank rate-cutting cycles"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:51Z 18.8K followers, 1345 engagements

"Initial jobless claims drop to 191k in week through Nov 29th the second-least in the past XX years (after 189k Sept XX 2022). Note though claims are generally noisy around holidays so I would bet we'll see it reverse back next week. Still though"
X Link 2025-12-04T13:43Z 18.8K followers, 2236 engagements

"In oral arguments Monday surrounding the suit by Rebecca Kelly Slaughter a former Federal Trade Commissioner regarding the ability for the President to remove such an official without cause (meaning some reason such as malfeasance) it appears the conservatives are going to give the President his wish based on the questioning which appeared to spell the end for the 1935 Humphreys Executor ruling which protected members of administrative agencies (agencies created by Congress but administered by the Executive branch). That is despite the Federal Trade Commission Act explicitly stating a"
X Link 2025-12-09T12:40Z 18.8K followers, 1887 engagements

"CNBC: $JPM JP Morgan shares -XXXX% Tuesday their worst day since April after consumer banking chief Marianne Lake told investors at Goldman's financial conference that the bank expects year 2026 expenses will reach $XXX billion. That is above the roughly $XXX billion expected by analysts surveyed by FactSet. That level is also nearly XX% higher than the banks $XXXX billion adjusted expense level forecast for this year. In the past investors and analysts have at times questioned the banks discipline on costs. The higher expense is being driven by growth-related costs Lake said"
X Link 2025-12-09T20:28Z 18.8K followers, 2319 engagements

"SPX stock-by-stock flag from @finviz_com consistent with a more balanced look. In that regard six of the top XX were higher up from three Mon led by WMTs +1.32% (edging out AVGO +1.29% which led Mon +2.8%). LLY led decliners -XXXX% (its now down each of the last nine sessions totaling -11.5%) edging out META -1.48%. Mag-7 was +0.3%. XX SPX components were up X% or more up from X Mon but down from XX a week ago led by Newmont NEM +5.7% on no particular news other than a couple of minor upgrades. NEM APP KKR BX were the $100bn in market cap up more than X% (in descending order of percentage"
X Link 2025-12-09T21:48Z 18.8K followers, 2101 engagements

"There's a common feeling that Bitcoin trades much like leveraged beta (equities) and so I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Bespoke finds that all of the gains in the $IBIT ETF since inception have come during overnight hours (222% after hours -XXXX% during market hours). That came to me through @TheChartReport nightly email (click through for that post and more plus some articles/videos). I say that is similar to equities because I have a chart from 2022 from Bespoke (via the FT (there may be a more recent one)) that shows the exact same pattern for the SPY since 1993 through 2022 where"
X Link 2025-12-10T11:20Z 18.8K followers, 4811 engagements

"BoA on China CPI: It is encouraging to see an improvement in CPI inflation in Nov. With food prices surprises to the upside (vegetable prices in the first XX days of Dec remaining) and continued improvement in clothing prices Dec CPI inflation is likely to remain close to Novs level. Consequently we have slightly revised our 2025 average CPI inflation forecast from -XXX% to X% yoy. That said we acknowledge that most of the upside was driven by food prices while non-food CPI still declined by -XXX% mom in Nov. Therefore we remain cautious about the inflation outlook from 1Q26 onwards as weak"
X Link 2025-12-11T10:00Z 18.8K followers, 1754 engagements

"Yardeni: A couple of times in his press conference Powell acknowledged that productivity growth has been boosting economic growth in recent quarters. Yet the SEP median projection for real GDP growth is only XXX% this year XXX% next year and XXX% in 2027 (chart). The median "long run" growth rate of real GDP is pegged at a low 1.8%. The FOMC as a whole obviously doesn't share our Roaring 2020s view that faster productivity growth will significantly boost real GDP growth over the remainder of the decade. Powell also stated a few times that the labor supply is down sharply. That ain't so. The"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:30Z 18.8K followers, 2383 engagements

"MarketWatch: Mark Newton head of technical strategy at Fundstrat notes it was the more rate-sensitive small caps IWM and mid-caps $MDY that outpaced the large-cap cohort on Wednesday. "Given the prior failure at new highs from late October this weeks push back to reclaim all-time high territory for the $IWM arguably has a better chance at extending gains" said Newton in an emailed note shared with MarketWatch. "Overall I like being long IWM and expect a push to $XXX which could be possible in the next month before small-caps start to reach resistance" he adds"
X Link 2025-12-11T16:59Z 18.8K followers, 1184 engagements

"BBG: Barclays Plc strategists noted that SPX realized moves on Fed days have declined dramatically this year hovering near zero recently. Its a trend that underscores the fading influence of monetary policy they said. Current expectations are for a XXX% move next week which would be the largest move since March"
X Link 2025-12-02T18:30Z 18.8K followers, 1644 engagements

"While there have been a lot of concerns over lower-income consumers both $DLTR Dollar Tree and $DG Dollar General have seen shares pop after earnings (with the latter near 16-mth highs and the former on track for its best year since 2010) as both raised their outlooks with comp-store sales above estimates. Both did flag disproportionate growth coming from higher-income households" although Dollar Tree said it was their "core" consumers who were leading the spending growth even as XX% of new shoppers had incomes in excess of $100k. Spending by the lower income groups grew twice as fast they"
X Link 2025-12-04T15:30Z 18.8K followers, 1859 engagements

"BoA like most is looking for a 25bps cut Wed: with around three dissents: two hawkish (Schmid and one other rotating voter i.e. Collins Musalem or Goolsbee) and one dovish (Miran in favor of a 50bp cut). We see a risk of additional dissents from Bowman and/or Waller if the Fed implements the balance sheet measures that our Rates Strategists are anticipating (more below). We look for two or three substantive changes in the FOMC statement. The description of labor market conditions is likely to omit the language that the u-rate remained low to reflect the 32bp uptick over the last three months."
X Link 2025-12-08T01:58Z 18.8K followers, 6833 engagements

"While breadth was poor Nasdaq positive volume (% of total volume that was in advancing stocks) was very solid Mon at XXXX% up from Friday's XXXX% even as the index lost -XXXX% versus Fridays +0.32% gain. While definitely helped by a jump in trading in penny stock $PAVS (1.3bn shares traded vs 300mn Fri) it was still a notable improvement"
X Link 2025-12-08T22:15Z 18.8K followers, 2332 engagements

"1-Day VIX unlike the VIX and VVIX edged lower to the lowest close since Oct 27th at XXX. That level implies a XXXX% move in the SPX next session"
X Link 2025-12-09T00:00Z 18.8K followers, 10.1K engagements

"Interestingly while BoA models CTAs as big sellers (-$97bn) in global equities in a "down tape" this week as this post from @dailychartbook's nightly email shows Goldman sees a much more mild -$2.8bn of selling. But this is where you have to read the fine print as these Goldman estimates use one standard deviation moves vs Goldman's normal XXX for an up move and XXX for a down move. Anyway what I wanted to focus more on is for the SPX Goldman models CTA buying in all price paths within one standard deviation (which is XXX% move) and as John Marshall would say $X or $9bn is "not"
X Link 2025-12-09T11:40Z 18.8K followers, 12K engagements

"Goldman: Meanwhile inflation risk has continued to recede. There are now several estimates available of the cumulative impact of tariffs on year-on-year inflation so farour own at 0.5pp as well as similar to slightly larger estimates from the Fed Board staff St. Louis Fed economists and the Harvard Pricing Lab. This implies that core PCE inflation net of tariffs effects has trended lower this year to roughly 2.3%. We expect core inflation net of tariff effects to reach X% by the first half of 2026 as labor market rebalancing and the fading of catch-up inflation provide a modest further"
X Link 2025-12-09T18:15Z 18.8K followers, 4107 engagements

"Markets Update - 12/9/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic data the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $BTC $UNG #oott"
X Link 2025-12-09T23:36Z 18.8K followers, 5054 engagements

"BoAs client equity flows last week saw net flows of US equities turn negative for the first time in three weeks (but the 8th week of selling in the past XX weeks) although modest at -$0.5bn (after +$4.4bn the prior week) as single stocks turned back to outflows for the 5th time in X weeks -$4.1bn (now -$24.3bn the last six weeks) not quite offset by another big inflow into ETFs (+$3.6bn after +$3.5bn the previous week a record +$4.8bn in the week before that and +$12.1bn the four weeks prior to that). It was the 8th straight week of buying of ETFs and 31st in XX weeks. Remember these exclude"
X Link 2025-12-10T12:00Z 18.8K followers, 3986 engagements

"BoA (Tupper): For 2026 BofA Global Research forecasts imply the best returns are likely found away from the most crowded bond and stock benchmarks. Our colleagues expect double-digit gains in EM debt and equities X% returns in Japan equities gold and US high yield credit and X% returns in US equities US IG-rated fixed income and Europe. In Exhibit X we rank those returns vs. each assets largest drawdown in the last decade. On this basis the most attractive assets include EM debt gold and Brazil equities. Several of these have a correlation to the S&P XXX of XXX or below"
X Link 2025-12-11T10:30Z 18.8K followers, 2234 engagements

"JPM (Feroli) agrees that we're getting to the point where further slowing in wages would be a negative: The Feds preferred gauge of underlying wage pressures the Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed tentative signs of decelerating last quarter: the ECI rose XXX% y/y its lowest increase since mid-2021. Powell today in the press conference characterized this print as not generating Phillips-curve kind of inflation. While a slowing is encouraging from an inflation perspective a further slowdown will weigh on real labor income growth (and in turn consumption) at a time when we already see downside"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:00Z 18.8K followers, 1542 engagements

"BBG: Dividend yields on global equities as tracked by the MSCI All Country World Index are at their lowest levels since 2002"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:30Z 18.8K followers, XXX engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $SNPS $LEG $WYNN $NVDA $MU $MRVL $MRNA $COIN $MARA $CLSK $MRK $B $MSTR $EADSY $CPNG $HOOD $NFE $XPEV $NIO $CVX $TSLA $UN $PAX"
X Link 2025-12-01T14:04Z 18.8K followers, 2177 engagements

"Goldman has started a monthly "AI adoption tracker" that tracks AI related investment adoption and labor market impacts. There's a lot there so I'll put out a few notes on it. In terms of investment they say: "AI-related investment growth remains strong particularly for semiconductor firms where equity analysts expect revenue growth of XX% from current levels by the end of 2026. Revenue forecast revisions imply that semiconductor spending will rise from $258bn in 2025Q3 to $379bn in 2026Q4.""
X Link 2025-12-06T13:40Z 18.8K followers, 49.5K engagements

"Goldman (Garrett): i am amazed at the speed by which fear gets priced in and priced out in the modern market (this isnt your grandparents VIX) prior to 2011 the VIX index never retraced XX% of spot in a two week period (ie if vol went bid it stayed bid for a while) what was once unheard of . this dramatic retrace has already happened five times in the last twelve months (ie market panics vol goes bid the risk is sorted out and vega/gamma supply takes over en masse). last week saw one of the least volatile five day periods in history bbg has spx five day realized vol at XXX as of friday close"
X Link 2025-12-09T12:20Z 18.8K followers, 4233 engagements

"Yardeni: As we've said before the neutral FFR concept is nonsense. Last year the Fed eased by cutting the FFR by 100bps. We disagreed with that move arguing that the economy didn't need such easing and that the Bond Vigilantes were likely to dissent. Sure enough the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 100bps late last year (chart). The same may be happening this year. Despite cutting the FFR by 50bps in September and October and another 25bps coming on Wednesday the bond yield has been hovering just above XXXX% since August. It is basically at the same level as it was when the Fed started its"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:00Z 18.8K followers, 63.7K engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $NVDA $ARES $CVS $TOL $AVAV $HD $ALEX $VIK $AZO $GOOG $PEP $WBD"
X Link 2025-12-09T13:44Z 18.8K followers, 1957 engagements

"With the FOMC tomorrow 1-Day VIX jumped to XXXX but that is relatively low for a Fed Day implying just a XXXX% move in the SPX next session. In comparison it was XXXX before the Sept FOMC decision"
X Link 2025-12-10T00:00Z 18.8K followers, 21.7K engagements

"Very interesting chart from the always very interesting @TimmerFidelity in last night's @dailychartbook email. I think most realize that the bull market that started in 2022 has been driven more by P/E expansion than is typical (versus earnings growth) but I don't know that I've previously seen a chart showing how far above the average bull market we got on that metric (the first box). As Jurrien notes it appears that we're now starting to see earnings take the lead (second box). Hopefully that continues"
X Link 2025-12-10T12:15Z 18.8K followers, 5589 engagements

"Bets on a potential 2026 ECB rate hike continue to grow hitting 13bps of pricing (which is slightly above a XX% chance of a 25bps hike) a sharp turnaround from a week ago when -5.1bps of cuts was priced. The change is driving up bond yields across Europe with German five-year rates up as much as six basis points to XXXX% the highest since March. Markets are testing how early we could get hikes said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti a strategist at Mizuho International Plc. I agree with markets pricing the risk of hikes in 2027. But to me a hike in 2026 feels a bit of a stretch"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:49Z 18.8K followers, 1213 engagements

"The good news is that separations also fell so that net hires-separations was +99k down just slightly from the +103k in Sept and up from -74k in June +19k in July and +15k in Aug"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:20Z 18.8K followers, 1882 engagements

"In addition to the repricing in Fed rate cut expectations bullish momentum in cash Treasuries has also faded. JPM's weekly survey of Treasury investors sees them having dropped long positions to a 5-week low (and near the lows of the year) while neutral positioning rose to the highest since Aug 25th (and near the highs of the year)"
X Link 2025-12-10T18:30Z 18.8K followers, 2455 engagements

"Fed cuts 25bps as expected with X dissents for the first time since 2019. Two regional presidents (Schmid (again) and Goolsbee) for a hold Gov Miran for a 50bps cut. But the dot plot registers six "soft" dissents (i.e. dots that did not reflect a cut at this meeting). Statement adds back in "the extent and timing" of additional adjustments to the target range echoing the language from last year which signaled a pause in cuts (which lasted until Sept). Statement also indicates as I noted was likely coming in the preview the initiation of "reserve management" (buying of T-Bills) but with no"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:15Z 18.8K followers, 9883 engagements

"2026 GDP gets a bigger (than I thought) upgrade to XXX% from XXX% in the Sept SEP and PCE inflation does as expected get a trim to XXX% (from XXX% in Sept) with core to XXX% from XXX% (not getting to XXX% until 2028). Unemployment though a little surprisingly remains at XXX% expected next year (falling to XXX% in 2028). #FOMC"
X Link 2025-12-10T19:26Z 18.8K followers, 2221 engagements

"US economic data Thursday remains on the light side with just Sept trade balance and weekly jobless claims. Well get a day to digest todays Fed decision before the speakers are back Friday but well get our last Treasury auction of the week in the long bond (30-yr reopening). Well also complete for the most part Q3 earnings with our last megacap in $1.8tn Broadcom (AVGO) who will be closely monitored for updates on the AI ecosystem. Well in addition get two other SPX components reporting (per TradingView) both higher profile in investor favorite Costco (COST) and former investor favorite now"
X Link 2025-12-11T01:30Z 18.8K followers, 3631 engagements

"New 52-wk highs minus new 52-wk lows (red lines) Wed improved to XXX on the NYSE the best since Aug and XXX on the Nasdaq the best since Oct"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:53Z 18.8K followers, 1734 engagements

"$LULU Lululemon shares jump +7% after beats on top and bottom line raising its full year guidance and announcing its CEO will leave at the end of the month. That said all of its X% increase in net sales in the quarter came from international markets. In the Americas net revenue fell -2%"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:22Z 18.8K followers, 1481 engagements

"$AVGO Broadcom looks to wipe away AI concerns with a beat and raise as CEO Hock Tan says that it expects AI chip sales to double on a year-over-year basis to $XXX billion in the current quarter both from custom AI chips as well as semiconductors for AI networking. Broadcom reported $XXXX billion in net income during the quarter or $XXXX per diluted share up XX% from $XXXX billion or XX cents per diluted share in the year-ago period. Broadcoms overall revenue grew XX% during the quarter which the company attributed to AI semiconductor sales rising 74%. Shares were up X% after hours to a new"
X Link 2025-12-11T21:28Z 18.8K followers, 2233 engagements