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@neilksethi Neil Sethi

Neil Sethi posts on X about stocks, fed, over the, vix the most. They currently have XXXXXX followers and 11660 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

X Week XXXXXXX +25%
X Month XXXXXXXXX +24%
X Months XXXXXXXXX +142%
X Year XXXXXXXXXX +697%

Mentions: XX #

X Week XXX -XX%
X Month XXX -XXXX%
X Months XXXXX -XXXX%
X Year XXXXX +52%

Followers: XXXXXX #

X Week XXXXXX +2.60%
X Month XXXXXX +11%
X Months XXXXXX +105%
X Year XXXXXX +589%

CreatorRank: XXXXXXX #

Social Influence #

Social category influence finance #3530 stocks countries technology brands exchanges #998 cryptocurrencies currencies #2972 automotive brands travel destinations fashion brands

Social topic influence stocks #908, fed #115, over the #1495, vix #130, china #3031, fomc #6, spx #48, $gld #16, wall street #151, nasdaq #75

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @cnbc @dailychartbook @finvizcom @mikezaccardi @grok @thechartreport @chartfest1 @sethcl @rymondinckenya @forexlive @thestalwart @nicktimiraos @jjperaltaa @kobeissiletter @ryandetrick @exantedata @business @atlantafed @wsj @ft

Top assets mentioned SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) SPX6900 (SPX) iShares BTC Trust (IBIT) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Artificial Intelligence (AI4) USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class A Common Stock (USAR) Rocket Lab USA, Inc. Common Stock (RKLB) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Alibaba Group (BABA) D R Horton Inc (DHI) Effect.AI (EFX) Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) Goldman Sachs (GS) Warner Bros Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock (PSKY) Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) MP Materials Corp. (MP) SafeMoon (SFM) Shakita Inu (SHAK) StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) ON Semiconductor, Corp. (ON) Fastenal Company (FAST) Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) Elcoin (EL) JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"MarketWatch: Anthony Saglimbene Ameriprise Financial chief market strategist notes that without the drag of the Magnificent Seven the S&P XXX would have been down only about XXXX% on the year through Tuesday according to his tally not 9.7%. That said the $MAGS index is now +6.4% since then"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-04-24T19:58Z 16.1K followers, XXX engagements

"#WTI futures dropped -XXX% Friday the worst day since June 23rd (when they dropped over -X% following the de-escalation of Israel/Iran hostilities) taking them to the lowest since early May. Daily MACD and RSI remain negative with the latter the weakest since May as well"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T19:30Z 16.1K followers, 2226 engagements

"Earnings pick up in a big way Tuesday with the unofficial start to 3Q earnings season with several of the big banks. In total well get X SPX reports almost all of them $100bn in market cap in JPM JNJ WFC GS BLK C (in order of market cap)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T23:30Z 16.1K followers, 2953 engagements

"Meanwhile Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said investors should allocate as much as XX% of their portfolios to gold. Gold is a very excellent diversifier in the portfolio Dalio said Tuesday at the Greenwich Economic Forum in Greenwich Connecticut. If you look at it just from a strategic asset allocation perspective you would probably have something like XX% of your portfolio in gold because it is one asset that does very well when the typical parts of the portfolio go down. The billionaire investor compared todays environment to the early 1970s when inflation heavy government"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T17:30Z 16.1K followers, 3335 engagements

"US economic data picks up Thursday with our overall heaviest day of reports with Aug durable goods orders and goods trade balance weekly jobless claims and the annual benchmark GDP revisions. Fed speakers also pick up with a full slate: Regional bank presidents Goolsbee Williams and Logan and Governors Barr and Bowman (all but Logan are 2025 voters (and all but Goolsbee are 2026 voters)). Well get our third of three non-Bill US Treasury auctions in $44bn in 7-yr notes. Earnings also pick up with four SPX components reporting in KMX JBL ACN & COST (just the last is $100bn in market cap). Ex-US"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-25T00:09Z 16.1K followers, 4000 engagements

"SPX stock-by-stock flag from @FINVIZ_com from Friday a sea of red much of it bright outside of Staples and Utilities. Otherwise just a handful of green names. The top X (trillion-dollar club) were all lower led by AVGO -5.9%. The least bad was GOOG at -2%. Mag-7 were -XXX% worst day since April. Just one SPX component was up X% or more the least since I started tracking this a few months ago (down from X Thurs XX Wed) in PEP (over X% for a second session). Also the $100bn in market cap up X% or more. In contrast XXX SPX components were down -X% or more the most since I started tracking (up"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T21:12Z 16.1K followers, 3888 engagements

"Missed a post there. Meant to attach the post on industrial selling to this post on financials: The buying in US Financials last week was the fastest pace in X months (99th percentile 5-year) driven by long buys and to a lesser extent short covers (6 to 1) Financials is now the most net bought US sector in SD terms over the past month. Banks stocks now make up XXX% of total US Net exposure on the Prime book in the 79th percentile vs. the past year and in the 92nd percentile vs. the past three years"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-30T10:00Z 16.1K followers, 3234 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $WBD $PSKY $BE $SHAK $EL $RKLB $USAR $SZZL $UUUU $MP $STUB $SFM $JPM $NVDA $AMD $ON $FAST $LYG $AAPL"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T12:40Z 16.1K followers, 2659 engagements

"$XLU SPDR Utilities ETF up XX of the past XX sessions (+6.6%)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T20:10Z 16.1K followers, 4149 engagements

"Tier1Alpha: 10-day realized volatility is exceptionally low at XXXX. while implied volatility remains well bid with the VIX at 16.2almost XX points higher than one-month SPX realized volatility. This represents an implied risk premium in the 93rd percentile. Whether the VIX is too high or realized volatility too low remains uncertain though its worth noting that a VRP this wide has historically been common near all-time highs"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-02T12:19Z 16.1K followers, 1752 engagements

"BoA on CTAs in the $USD: In FX the US dollar was able to hold on to gains this week despite falling on Friday with the tariff news. This weeks moves may have caused some trend followers to cover USD shorts vs $EUR $GBP and $AUD but positioning is still broadly short USD with the exception of $JPY where CTAs are short vs USD. Our model indicates that CTAs could buy USD vs all currencies we track in this report next week"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T10:00Z 16.1K followers, 3356 engagements

"In the special question this week AAII asked Do you hold gold or other precious metals in your portfolio either directly or through an ETF A little over half (55.6%) said they did not (and were not considering adding) with the remainder split but XX% did own precious metals (another X% owned just mining companies): XX% said they owned gold or other precious metals XX% said they owned both precious metals and mining companies X% said they owned just mining companies. X% said they did not own gold but were considering adding"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-04T16:02Z 16.1K followers, 1382 engagements

"BBG: Short-term implied volatility across major assets has fallen below long-term averages reaching levels not seen consistently in around four years according to Cboe Global Markets. For Mandy Xu Cboes head of derivatives market intelligence this prevailing calm is rooted in the economic story. Despite all the tariff chaos the consumer has held up inflation is still in check and the Fed is about to cut said Xu Until that narrative changes I think volatility is likely to remain in check in the near-term"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-08-30T13:40Z 16.1K followers, 4050 engagements

"Goldman: On the other hand HFs faded the outperformance in Utilities which was the best performing but the most net sold US sector this week (-2.0 SDs) led by long-and-short sales in Electric Utilities stocks"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T13:32Z 16.1K followers, 1792 engagements

"Goldman on CTA flows: S&P short-trend became a touch negative below 6580 but is positive again intraday Monday. Overall coming into today our models expect a modest $18bn of global equity X week sales predominately in US markets though S&P reestablishing positive short trend would mitigate that and a similar figure over the cumulative X month so the baseline sales are not extending further currently and with contributions from both CTA/trend followers and the vol-based investors. If the market rebounds and vol subsides the selling would be even smaller and conversely there is ample room to"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T11:15Z 16.1K followers, 4746 engagements

"NYSE % of stocks above 50-DMAs (red line) dropped sharply to the least since April"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T22:30Z 16.1K followers, 2117 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG & $DOOR $OXM $KLAR $BABA $ORCL $KR $CELH $CHWY $TMO $SNPS $UPS $FDX $C $BK $NVO $AAPL $AVGO $CNC $PNC"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-11T13:22Z 16.1K followers, 2296 engagements

"$GOLD spot gold the most overbought since August 2020. $GLD"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T21:18Z 16.1K followers, 1725 engagements

"Earnings give us our biggest day of the week Thurs with global bellwether FedEx $FDX along with fellow SPX components homebuilder Lennar restaurant giant Darden and data service firm Factset. None though $100bn in market cap. $LEN $DHI $FDS"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-17T23:32Z 16.1K followers, 3258 engagements

"$ITB On the back of a +16% gain in the largest homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. $DHI as well as a +12% gain in PulteGroup Inc. $PHM after earnings the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF $ITB is up nearly +8% it's best day since Nov '22 to a 5-mth high. "Many of the biggest builders in the country continue to surprise Wall Street to the upside with how well they are running their businesses in this environment John Burns CEO of John Burns Research and Consulting told MarketWatch. In other words the results werent as bad as investors were expecting namely gross margins and the expectations around"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-07-22T19:52Z 16.1K followers, 1122 engagements

"Citi: the recent $USDJPY move does not look in line with fundamentals raising FX intervention risk"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T09:30Z 16.1K followers, 1992 engagements

"Ex-US one focus will be the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings starting Monday in Washington with the IMF releasing its global growth projections and financial stability report. In terms of economic reports well get China trade balance CPI and PPI UK unemployment and trade balance Japan industrial production and retail sales EU industrial production and trade balance and the second estimate of EU CPI (along with individual member countries). Perhaps more importantly though will be politics ranging from whether Pres Trumps latest social media post Sunday night will calm tensions with China to"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T02:19Z 16.1K followers, 3649 engagements

"Nomura's McElligott says the "trailing multi-month Vol Crushcertainly within Equities spacehas been a function of bunches of things: o Prolific Equities Vol Supply (Structured Notes / Exo issuance ATHs Overwrite / Underwrite Premium Income AUM to ATHs QIS VRP product growth Vol pods / Dispersion trade crowding) o Destroyed single-stock Correlation (via ongoing persistently high performance spread bifurcation of thematic Winners / Losers in Stocks) o Perception of Tariff worst-case scenarios having been avoided as we emerge from the Uncertainty period . o Clear Central Bank dovish capitulation"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T10:59Z 16.1K followers, 5754 engagements

"And the large drop-off in gamma above the 6800 strike has unsurprisingly caught the attention of Nomura's McElligott (this was in all caps in his note): Todays equities index options dealer gamma positioning shows large short gamma at the 6800 strike as potential upside acceleration point (until it too inevitably fills in with VRP options supply) evidencing how investors had to add OTM upside recently to hedge right-tail escape velocity risks"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T11:30Z 16.1K followers, 9006 engagements

"Weekly chart of bitcoin continues to hint that a deeper pullback might be in store but if it lines up with what happened at the start of the year it will be a buyable dip. $BTC"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T18:30Z 16.1K followers, 1936 engagements

"Morningstar: A basket of XX AI stocks selected by Morningstar equity analysts rose XXXX% in the third quarter which followed a XXXX% surge in the second. The third quarters gain doubled the XXX% return on the overall stock market as measured by the Morningstar US Market Index and it was ahead of the XXXX% return on the Morningstar US Technology Index. Leading contributors to the rally included Corning GLW up XXXX% and Teradyne TER which advanced 49.5%. Of the XX stocks in the basket XX or XX% outperformed the market during the quarter with XX rising more than 20%. The majority of the"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T18:30Z 16.1K followers, 1477 engagements

"US copper futures (/HG) jumped +4% Wed the best day since the July spike on tariff fears after Freeport shut down a copper mine blowing through the $XXXX area that stopped the rally last week now up to the 100-DMA at $XXXX. The daily MACD and RSI remain supportive. #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-24T21:12Z 16.1K followers, 2227 engagements

"The Week Ahead - 10/12/25 A comprehensive look at the upcoming week for US economics equities and fixed income"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T01:58Z 16.1K followers, 9726 engagements

"Goldman: We have seen a dramatic uptick in spot vs implied volatility correlation (spot up vol up // spot down vol down). Over the last XX sessions SPX spot and 1-month implied volatility have had a realized correlation of almost X. This phenomenon is unusual and indicative of chase on up days and unwind of hedges on down days (we have seen this in our flows)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-29T18:00Z 16.1K followers, 3290 engagements

"I like to look at the impact of moves in leveraged ETFs on the overall market as a barometer of risk appetite (the greater the impact the more investors have in these ETFs which I think of as higher risk) and both SPX and NDX leveraged ETFs fell back from 52-week highs to the least in about a month but much closer to the YTD highs than the lows"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T14:20Z 16.1K followers, 5112 engagements

"Fed Chair Powell in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics (link below) does little to knock down the probabilities for an October #FOMC cut (which are now at XX% just a touch below where they were this morning) saying "based on the data that we do have it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago" even as pre-shutdown data "show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." "Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T16:46Z 16.1K followers, 3554 engagements

"The yen slid to as low as XXXXXX against the greenback the weakest since February and fell to a fresh record low against the euro dating back to the common currencys inception in 1999 as markets curbed their expectations for a Bank of Japan interest-rate hike in the aftermath of the surprise victory by pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichis. Just weeks before the BOJs next meeting one of Takaichis closest economic advisers said that a rate increase in December would be better timed. We are only getting started on what the post-LDP leadership change implies for fiscal and monetary policy said"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T01:28Z 16K followers, 3487 engagements

"$WFC The best performer though in terms of today's big bank reports is former laggard Wells Fargo despite not having the trading heft of its rivals and missing slightly on NII as it raises its ROTCE (Return on Tangible Common Equity) target to 17-18% from XX% following the Fed removing an asset cap in June. Investment-banking fees were also an unexpected bright spot at $XXX million up XX% from a year earlier. As of the end of September Wells Fargo ranked seventh in global deal advisement this year leaping from 17th in the same period in 2024 according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T14:23Z 16.1K followers, 4157 engagements

"BBG: US stocks are at risk of sinking as much as XX% if trade tensions between the US and China arent resolved before a November deadline according to Morgan Stanleys Michael Wilson. If associated trade uncertainty/volatility continue into early November we could see a larger correction than most are expecting Wilson wrote in a note. He forecast that the S&P XXX Index could drop to between 6027 and 5800 points in a bear-case scenario. That implies a selloff of between X% and XX% from Fridays close. "A XX% retracement of the first leg up would be 6027 XX% below recent highs" Wilson wrote."
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T14:12Z 16.1K followers, 2716 engagements

"BoA (Harnett): US data weakening sufficiently to allow Fed to cut crediblyJuly construction spending down XXX% YoY (despite AI data center boom = X% of total $2.1tn) and rate-sensitive recessionary right now (Chart 3) US house prices down in past X months JOLTS labor market data consistent with lower Fed funds (Chart 5) AI jobs disruption starting (graduate unemployment rate up X% to X% past XX months) so absent 2nd wave inflation and/or negative payrolls that augers jump in US deficit from X% to XX% of GDP/debt default worries we say US bond yields heading toward X% not X% and this"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-06T14:40Z 16.1K followers, 12.2K engagements

"BBG also with story on China's exports coming in better than expected growing XXX% y/y in Sept to $329bn the highest this year above the +6.6% expected even as US shipments remained depressed -XX% y/y the sixth month of double-digit declines as it was more than offset by strong growth in sales to regions ex-US including the EU. In total exports to non-US destinations grew XXXX% the fastest since March 2023. Shipments to Africa surged XX% last month the fastest since February 2021 with exports to Latin America rebounding XXXX% from declines in June and August. Exports to the EU rose by more"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T12:48Z 16.1K followers, 2317 engagements

"If at first you don't succeed try again I guess French Pres Macron reappoints Sebastien Lecornu (who resigned less than a month into the job) as prime minister with unenviable task of needing to get a budget proposal done by Monday that will pass through regular order by the end of the year or an emergency budget will need to be approved. Lecornu the brave soldier accepted the appointment "out of duty" not giving a lot of confidence to the outcome. "The reappointment is a last-gasp attempt to find political balance to prevent the next government from collapsing which would likely make snap"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T10:02Z 16.1K followers, 2526 engagements

"While I think most on Friday (including me) were expecting the volatility to be on the downside on Monday (I was thinking Turnaround Tuesday) it appears the Trump put is now considerably higher than in April as he posts: Dont worry about China calling Pres Xi highly respected and saying Chinas flurry of new measures including rare earth restrictions were a bad moment. Xi doesnt want an economic depression in China said Trump and neither does he. Rather America wants to help China. No need for worry as "it will all be fine As might be expected markets are relieved with SPX futures +0.9% Nasdaq"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T22:46Z 16.1K followers, 6190 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $HLT $HAS $T $COF $TXN $CGSP $ENPH $ISRG $CALM $SAP $RKT $NOK $ASML $MS $MCO $GEV $LII"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-07-23T12:36Z 16.1K followers, 3122 engagements

"BoA (Hartnett) on highlights from EPFR flows in week through Wed: Cash: MMF assets continue to rise now $7.4tn; Gold: $2.1bn inflowsmallest in X weeks; Crypto: $5.5bn inflowbiggest in XX weeks; IG bonds: $15.5bn inflow people keep buying bonds; Bank loan: $1.4bn inflowbiggest in XX weeksnotable 1st sign rate optimism peaking; Materials: $7.6bn inflowrecord weekly inflow YTD inflows annualizing record $79bn (Chart 5); Healthcare: $1.5bn inflowbiggest since Apr23 (Chart 6); Financials: $0.2bn outflow1st outflow in X weeks"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T15:15Z 16.1K followers, 2533 engagements

"The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and its adjusted counterpart continued on their steady decline since the start of April falling to the least (loosest) since Jan XX but note the reading was as of Wednesday so it may move higher next week. Both of these indexes are very comprehensive each w/105 indicators. The adjusted version attempts to remove the correlation between the various indicators due to broad changes in economic conditions which also impact other areas (so as to not double count them)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T20:30Z 16.1K followers, 3123 engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): The Biggest Picture: XX barrels of oil bought X ounce of gold in Jun22 now takes XX (Chart 2); big oil loss + big gold gain a historical anomaly (Chart 4); oil relatively cheap but we think best Q4 bull surprise is oil price cracks lower to $50/bbl (good for Trump approval on inflation US/EU/Japan consumer aids AI power needs) on OPEC supply (peace deal in exchange for capital to fund growth in Middle East growth as both Israeli & Saudi budget deficit currently X% of GDP). #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T09:30Z 16.1K followers, 5044 engagements

"Goldmans US Equity Sentiment Indicator moved back down to -XXX as of Friday ("in light territory despite the S&P XXX near its all-time high and widespread concern about an equity market bubble") after making it up to -XXX the prior week (but still above the -XXX four weeks ago). The indicator combines nine measures of institutional foreign and retail investor positioning. It has not registered a positive reading since February although Goldman notes none of the nine positioning measures in our indicator are in stretched territory"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-28T12:40Z 16.1K followers, 32.8K engagements

"Markets Update - 10/13/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T22:31Z 16.1K followers, 5461 engagements

"BoA's thoughts on Sept payrolls: Sep ADP private jobs surprised to the downside at -32k & Aug was revised down to -3k. The less favorable Sep seasonal factor (SF) in XX relative to prior years (+87k in XX vs +474k and +417k in XX and XX respectively) was in part responsible for the weak print. Even if this change in SF was warranted given structural labor market changes we dont expect this to play out with the same magnitude in NFP at least in Sep. The SF usually contributes positively to Sep private payrolls & we expect it to continue doing the same (Exhibit 1). Even if it is better to"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T11:15Z 16.1K followers, 1504 engagements

"DB compares the current setup (market advance led by low quality stocks) to 2021. They start by noting that "simple momentum-chasing strategies such as buying stocks with heavy call volume in each previous week ripped higher over the last month echoing the early-2021 boom. In our view the performance of this strategy offers a good read on momentum-driven buying. After outperforming the S&P XXX by 30pp from the April bottom to early September it outperformed by another 30pp just over the last month rivaling the outperformance seen during the early-2021 boom which was fueled by reopening"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T13:40Z 16.1K followers, 6068 engagements

"BoA: a record-high XX% of FMS investors in October said that they think AI stocks are in a bubble (vs XX% no bubble). Sentiment has flipped from September when just XX% said stocks were in a bubble (vs XX% saying no)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T13:49Z 16.1K followers, 7078 engagements

"Nomura's McElligott: Japans surprise weekend election outcome. is further indicating how much of the developed world is pivoting into a Run It Hot FISCAL DOMINANCE framework carrying monster deficits in order to try and outgrow debt and as respective central banks acquiesce to political forces standing down and deprioritizing their inflation mandates. Accordingly Gold Silver and Bitcoin are again simultaneously moving to fresh ATHs as the chief winners in this latest escalation of the (insert currency here) Debasement Trade alongside Equities then too ripping to record highs as well"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T11:00Z 16.1K followers, 8720 engagements

"BBG: On the back of OpenAIs pacts with a group of South Korean chipmakers as well as a report that Intel is in talks to add Advanced Micro Devices as a customer the combined market capitalization of the $SOXX Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index and a gauge tracking Asia chip stocks jumped over $XXX billion in the latest session. The recent rally has caused a spike in chipmakers valuations: Bloombergs Asia chip gauge is trading at around XX times forward earnings estimates while the SOX Index is now trading at XX times earnings approaching record highs from 2024. Tech momentum"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-02T12:39Z 16.1K followers, 4617 engagements

"We dont think it is entirely over said Julian Emanuel chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI who has been bullish most of the year with one of the highest targets on Wall Street referring to Fridays selloff. Although his team believes a meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will occur at the end of the month as the White House indicated the heightened uncertainty and increased volatility is likely to cause degrossing from active managers particularly systematic funds. The spat around rare earth minerals on Friday was a catalyst for an overdue pullback he said"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T19:00Z 16.1K followers, 2251 engagements

"Markets Update - 10/14/25 Update on US equity and bond markets US economic reports the Fed and select commodities with charts $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T22:22Z 16.1K followers, 3955 engagements

"$C Citigroup in contrast to JPM (which is down -3.5%) is up +0.5% adding to YTD gains of around XX% after beating across all five business lines with revenues +9% y/y. Like JPM they saw better than expected equities and FICC trading up 15%. The banks wealth division a franchise that Fraser has sought for years to grow boosted revenue about X% driven largely by Citigold an investment platform for affluent clients who dont meet the firms private bank wealth thresholds"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T14:11Z 16.1K followers, 1990 engagements

"CNBC: The Invesco $QQQ Trust tracking the largest XXX stocks on the Nasdaq is on pace for a 107th straight close above its 50-day moving average (since late April). Assuming it holds to the close the streak would tie QQQs longest above its 50DMA since 2017. Over that span the ETF is up about XX% powered by breakouts in names like AppLovin Micron Technology Warner Bros. Discovery and Lam Research each of which has roughly doubled. Staying above a rising 50DMA for this long isnt common and usually signals durable momentum and buying on dips. But streaks dont often end quietly; when momentum"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-02T19:19Z 16.1K followers, 12.5K engagements

"BBG: Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial noted financial markets often shift gears in September entering a period historically associated with seasonal weakness and increased market instability with the S&P XXX posting an average drop of -XXX% in the month making it the worst performing month for stocks. When September finished in the red the average loss was -XXX% compared to the average gain of XXX% when September was higher. But when the S&P XXX is above its 200-day moving average going into September (as it is now by over 8%) he said the average price return for the month jumps to XXX% with"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-08-29T12:15Z 16.1K followers, 2121 engagements

"With #FOMC Chair Powell not saying anything about current monetary pricing in his last scheduled speaking engagement before the FOMC blackout starts at the end of next week it seems he's implicitly endorsing current FOMC pricing which is for two more rate cuts. From last night's Update: FOMC rate cut pricing little changed after the FOMC minutes according to CMEs Fedwatch tool with 45bps of rate cuts priced for 2025 (-3bps from the post-FOMC highs on Oct 1st). An Oct cut is XX% priced and chances of X more cuts this year at 80%. Three are at 0%. Chance of no more cuts 1%. It got as high as 5%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T13:35Z 16.1K followers, 2700 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading little changed after SPX and Nasdaq closed at record highs Wed and Russell 2000 just under. Earnings reports from Delta and PepsiCo were both better than expected. Nvidia Corp. rose after the US approved several billion dollars worth of its chip exports to the United Arab Emirates. Costco shares also gained after the big-box retailer delivered solid September sales data. The calendar for today is again all about the Fed with the government shutdown cancelling economic reports. The main event though was anticlimactic as Chair Powell"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T13:30Z 16.1K followers, 1646 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are giving back much of Mondays bounce despite a swath of better than expected big bank earnings as tensions with China remain high after sanctions were placed on five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipping company Hanwha Ocean. The data calendar remains light with the shutdown but we will hear from a number of Fed officials today most importantly Chair Powell a little after noon ET at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics. In addition to Powell Governors Bowman and Waller are on the schedule as is Boston Fed"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T13:32Z 16.1K followers, X engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $DAY $RUN $MCG $NXT $NVO $WULF $TSLA $UNH $FSLR $VWSYF $BTAI"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-08-18T12:38Z 16.1K followers, 2069 engagements

"#FOMC rate cut pricing firmed Friday according to CMEs Fedwatch tool with 49bps of rate cuts priced for 2025 (now the highest since the Sept FOMC meeting). An Oct cut is XX% priced (down from XXX% with a X% chance of a 50bps cut Oct 1st) and chances of X more cuts this year jumped to XX% (the highest post-FOMC). Three are at 0%. Chance of no more cuts has fallen to X% as well. It got as high as X% two weeks ago. Pricing for 2026 added 7bps to 70bps (also the highest since the Sept FOMC) pushing total cuts through Dec XX +12bps to 120bps the joint highest this year"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T15:30Z 16.1K followers, 2244 engagements

"In 2021 these pockets of momentum chasing reversed sharply but the broader market saw just modest pullbacks of X and X% in its strong steady rally out to year-end"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T14:00Z 16.1K followers, 10.5K engagements

"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) not quite a XX% down day Friday at XXXX% still the least since May 21st"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T15:00Z 16.1K followers, 1528 engagements

"As expected following the surprise Takaichi victory the yen is dropping (dollar up +1.5% vs the yen) and stocks are surging with the Nikkei XXX up nearly 4%. $USDJPY"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T01:59Z 16.1K followers, 3271 engagements

"FWIW JPMorgan analysts predict record corporate buybacks will continue supported by resilient earnings strong credit market and good cash flow generation which will be aided further by recent tax bill impact." While they expect that most of the supports will stay in place the analysts said that buybacks could slow from the current record pace if the labor market weakened more meaningfully and corporate confidence fell"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T19:00Z 16.1K followers, 2587 engagements

"The VVIX (VIX of the VIX) jumped to XXXXX Friday the highest close since April and materially above Nomuras Charlie McElligotts stress level of XXX (consistent with moderate daily moves in the VIX over the next XX days (normal is 80-100)). The uptrend line from the March lows continues to hold"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T22:00Z 16.1K followers, 2659 engagements

"Following the relatively dovish speech from Philadelphia Fed Pres Paulson who is a 2026 voting member pricing from the CME Fedwatch tool for 2026 #FOMC cuts moved up to 72bps the highest this year. Added to the 48bps seen for 2025 that would mean 121bps of cuts through the end of next year vs the dot plot's 83bps (avg dot)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T10:15Z 16.1K followers, 3204 engagements

"Torbjorn Tornqvist chief executive officer of Gunvor Group also said in an interview in London on Tuesday that he sees signs of surplus emerging in crude markets: It looks like we are now moving into a bit of a different market Tornqvist said. We have heard it before and people have been burned on that. But this time around at this stage I think theres a bit more substance in the oversupplied narrative. Theres a great deal more oil hitting the market at the time where there is no additional demand for it said Tornqvist who co-founded Gunvor and helped turn it to be one of the biggest traders"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T17:00Z 16.1K followers, 2509 engagements

"NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) a very solid XXXX% the best since Aug 22nd in line with the XXXX% gain in the index which was the best since then as well"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T21:02Z 16.1K followers, 3773 engagements

"Mag-7 worst day since August. Less than -XXX% from the worst day since April"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T19:24Z 16.1K followers, 5065 engagements

"The NYSE McClellan Summation Index (red line a longer-term breadth indicator (what the avg stock is doing)) unsurprisingly continued falling this week the least since early May. I mentioned two weeks ago the divergence between a rising NYSE composite index and falling McClellan Summation Index is unusual and it often is resolved with a pullback in equities although it doesnt have to be a large one. Looks like were getting that pullback now"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T20:30Z 16.1K followers, 2338 engagements

"Following recent actions from China limiting rare earth access slapping new port fees on US ships and starting an antitrust investigation into China President Trump in an angry post on social media threatens a massive increase of tariffs on goods from China citing recent hostile export controls on rare-earth minerals and said he saw no reason to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. I was to meet President Xi in two weeks at APEC in South Korea but now there seems to be no reason to do so Trump posted Friday on Truth Social. The president added that one countermeasure the US is considering"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T16:30Z 16.1K followers, 27.3K engagements

"US economic data would have been packed next week absent the shutdown but even it is somehow solved by next week the release of CPI PPI import prices advance retail sales jobless claims and housing starts data will all be delayed as data collection has been paused since the start of the month. At least we know well get CPI by the end of the month. But that still does leave the scheduled Fed reports most notably industrial production and the Beige Book for the October meeting but also some regional PMIs and other reports such as the Chicago Feds retail sales estimate (which I will warn has a"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T13:00Z 16.1K followers, 3410 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $OXY $BRK $FICO $CURB $CE $LAC $WDC $TRU $EFX $TSLA $NVO $RHHBY $NVDA $NKE"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-02T12:42Z 16.1K followers, 2787 engagements

"MarketWatch: Spending by a handful of big technology companies on artificial intelligence is expected to deliver XX% of the S&P XXX index's growth in business investments this year according to a tally from Lawrence Pfeffer equity-sector analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The broader index excluding Alphabet Meta Microsoft Amazon and Oracle was pegged to grow only X% in 2025 according to FactSet estimates"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T18:00Z 16.1K followers, 2005 engagements

"St Louis Fed Pres Musalem (2025 #FOMC voter) seems to be more aligned with the core of the Fed (Powell/Williams/Jefferson) than what we heard earlier from Gov Barr who seemed to be less open to further rate reductions saying at the Community Banking Research Conference hosted by the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce in Missouri that he was "open-minded about a potential further reduction in interest rates to provide further insurance against labor market weakening" although like Barr said I believe that we have to tread with caution because theres limited room for further easing before"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T19:40Z 16.1K followers, 2872 engagements

"DB says CTAs overall equity long positioning was scaled back this week (90th percentile) driven by a broad-based cut across regions. In the US (87th percentile) they trimmed their long positioning in the S&P XXX (88th percentile) the Nasdaq XXX (89th percentile) and the Russell 2000 (69th percentile). Still it remains quite full on a historical basis"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T00:59Z 16.1K followers, 9584 engagements

"I think at this point China and Trump are both playing the same game just with different styles. They both need each other but both want to try to gain leverage ahead of talks at the end of the month. I think both sides were reminding each other of the cards they hold and now both will deescalate to avoid a worst case scenario"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T23:22Z 16.1K followers, XXX engagements

"To go along with the technical positives on the $DXY the nightly @dailychartbook email had this from @AlfCharts at All Star Charts: "The smart money is taking its largest net long position in over four years Its not a trade signal on its own but its a powerful way to gauge market sentiment and positioning." I haven't heard anyone pushing a strong dollar position. Seems like maybe the max pain trade might be higher dollar Sub to the Daily Chartbook email here:"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T10:15Z 16.1K followers, 8075 engagements

"Goldman: "While the economy is not concerning (so far) and the US equity market at the highs we like buying protection going into the fourth quarter as the market seems vulnerable to a pullback due to the strong outperformance since liberation day how many cuts are priced in and a potential continued unwind.""
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-27T12:20Z 16.1K followers, 27.3K engagements

"MarketWatch: Gold and silver cruised to an easy win in September as shown in the chart from Deutsche Bank. The Deutsche Bank analysts noted that gold's XXXX% September gain marked its strongest monthly performance since August 2011 when the U.S. faced a debt ceiling crisis and the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis was escalating. For the third quarter gold rose XXXX% while silver jumped XXXX% and platinum saw a XXXX% gain the analysts noted. Silver also leads the way in year-to-date returns up by more than XX% according to FactSet. And gold up XX% so far in 2025 is on track for its strongest"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-04T19:00Z 16.1K followers, 1630 engagements

"Prediction markets now see a XX% chance of the shutdown lasting past XX days (so through the end of the month) with an avg of XXXX days"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T03:02Z 16.1K followers, 2283 engagements

"MarketWatch: A monday note from SentimentTrader indicated "a rare combination of events" occurred recently: In a 21-day period 1) the S&P XXX posted a new all-time high 2) booked its biggest daily percentage drop over a 125-session period and 3) the VIX saw a single-day rate of change that exceeds 31%. "When this rare combination of events has occurred in the past the S&P 500's performance has followed a distinct and potentially deceptive pattern" with its initial bounce giving way to "a period of significant weakness" the firm said. Historically a "significant portion of these signals were"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T19:41Z 16.1K followers, 9412 engagements

"MarketWatch: HSBCs chief multi-strategist Max Kettner expects another round of renewed selling in the US dollar and is reluctant to revise his bearish stance just yet even as he acknowledges that attacks on the Feds independence have not weakened the dollar as much as anticipated and also doesn't expect the Fed will ease the full XXX basis points over the next year that market consensus predicts. They say a return to U.S. exceptionalism a diminution of political uncertainty and increased demand for U.S. equities are prerequisites for a genuine reversal in sentiment and trading which they"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T10:00Z 16.1K followers, 1584 engagements

"NY Feds 3Q GDP Nowcast pushed to +2.55% as of Friday the strongest since they started tracking in May up +0.45% w/w with half of that coming from the Aug economic reports (led by personal consumption) and half on revisions to prior months. As a reminder they were well under for 2Q at +1.68% vs +3.0% actual first est after being too high for 1Q at +2.6% vs -XXX% (although they were closer in most other quarters)). As another reminder the model is dynamic and so adjusts in real time as data evolves) and parameter revisions added +0.02%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-29T12:00Z 16.1K followers, 4198 engagements

"$DAL Delta shares jumping +7.4% pre-market edging back into the green for the year after raising guidance for the current quarter on continued strong premium travel demand (even as there's been weakening in the main cabin) and saying next year "Delta is well positioned to deliver top-line growth margin expansion and earnings improvement consistent with our long-term financial framework CEO Ed Bastian said in an earnings release. Starting in July cash sales picked up Bastian said in an interview. Premium-travel demand continued to outshine the coach cabin where though revenues fell. Sales from"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T12:38Z 16.1K followers, 4428 engagements

"US economic data was going to lighten up regardless next week and it will do so incrementally more as long as the shutdown drags on. Given that lighter calendar well only be missing three reports due to the shutdown in the Aug trade balance and wholesale inventories along with weekly jobless claims. Well still get (I think) Aug Consumer Credit and the Oct NY Fed consumer survey (as theyre produced by the Fed which is not shut down as are the FOMC minutes on Wed) UMich preliminary Oct consumer sentiment and weekly mortgage applications and EIA petroleum inventories (EIA also says they have"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T00:42Z 16.1K followers, 1592 engagements

"1-Day VIX edged down to XXXX. That level is implying a XXXX% move in the SPX Thurs"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T23:00Z 16.1K followers, 1502 engagements

"More from the UMich survey: As also is probably unsurprising "stock market participants particularly those with larger holdings typically have more favorable levels of sentiment than non-participants with sentiment gaps by wealth widening substantially between 2023 and 2024. However amid heightened awareness and concern over trade policy developments this year sentiment fell for all these groups and converged in April and May 2025. "Since May 2025 sentiment has lifted up for stock market participants with a particularly strong rise for participants with the top XX% of holdings. In contrast"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T15:59Z 16.1K followers, 11.9K engagements

"BoAs client equity flows last week saw net selling of US equities for a fourth straight week although decelerating to a still sizeable -$3.0bn as equity ETFs turned negative (-$2.2bn) to join the continued outflows from single stocks (-$0.8bn after -$5.7bn the prior week the most since October and after -$5.2bn the week before that the 3rd largest of any 2-week period since 08.). Remember these exclude corporates now. Institutional clients which had been heavy buyers for seven weeks until three weeks ago continued their selling although decelerating to -$0.4bn from -$3.6bn the prior week (the"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T10:45Z 16.1K followers, 4456 engagements

"In terms of revenues analysts have also raised their estimates during the quarter to XXX% y/y growth compared to the expectations for revenue growth of XXX% on June XX. That would mark the second-highest growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%) trailing only Q2 2025. It will also mark the 20th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Ten sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues led by the Information Technology Communication Services and Health Care sectors. On the other hand the Energy sector is the only sector predicted to report a"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T03:16Z 16.1K followers, 1830 engagements

"Goldman: While broad measures of positioning remain constrained some pockets of the equity market have recently demonstrated greater signs of investor exuberance. For example Bitcoin-sensitive equities and quantum computing stocks have risen by more than XX% and XX% respectively since the start of August. Similarly a basket of liquid recent IPOs and a basket of stocks most popular among retail traders are each up 14%. Growing investor risk appetite has also been reflected in the IPO market with the average IPO this year returning XX% on its first day of trading. This return has only been"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-09-30T11:45Z 16.1K followers, 4613 engagements

"The 2yr yield more sensitive to FOMC rate cut pricing dropped -5bps Tuesday after reopening from the Monday holiday to XXXX% the lowest since Sept XX. It is -68bps below the Fed Funds midpoint so calling loudly for rate cuts. The red line (the Effective Fed Funds Rate) which edged up another basis point Thursday after moving up a basis point on Sept 23rd also was unch"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T21:21Z 16.1K followers, 1600 engagements

"Gold (/GC) weekly chart continues to be a spectacle. Hasnt been this overbought since August 2019 and the weekly MACD has literally broken the chart (we havent seen the MACD over much over XXX ever including the spectacular 1979-80 run which took the RSI to 95). $GLD"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T17:30Z 16.1K followers, 2652 engagements

"France's CAC40 has reversed losses after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said he would propose suspending the application of the countrys pension reform sacrificing one of President Emmanuel Macrons key economic measures in an endgame bid for political stability. I will propose to Parliament that we suspend the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election he said. There will be no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T13:44Z 16.1K followers, 3923 engagements

"Betting markets now have the probability at nearly XX% that Pres Trump does not name an #FOMC chair this year"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T15:59Z 16.1K followers, 1196 engagements

"BoA (Ciana): US stocks extended their summer advance in September despite seasonal headwinds. While Q4 tends to be the best quarter of the year it is often backloaded to Nov-Dec and the latter half of Dec. The S&P500 exceeded our head and shoulders bottom secondary target of 6625. Extended upside levels may include 6845 and 7000. However breadth measures continue to diverge and have failed to confirm the indexs advance. This has favored hedges into new highs while breadth divergence remains. Should leadership falter and equities dip 6625 is initial support then 6550 September lows with the"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T11:30Z 16.1K followers, 1800 engagements

"As we approach the open in NY US equity indices are trading higher as while the government shutdown drags on corporations are providing reasons for optimism with Advanced Micro Devices jumping as much as XX% in premarket trading after signing a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure and Comerica Inc. after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the financial services firm. Positive notes from commentators on the upcoming earnings season from Goldmans David Kostin and Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research are also boosting the mood. The calendar for today is light with no economic reports and"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T13:27Z 16.1K followers, 1866 engagements

"Earnings season continues Wednesday as we get more banks along with a broader array of non-bank reporters (although none as big as JPM). In total well get X SPX reports but fewer $100bn in market cap with BAC MS ABT PLD (in descending order of market cap)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T23:30Z 16.1K followers, 2166 engagements

"MS says the concerns over the First Brands issues are likely overblown: "While these developments undoubtedly surprised credit investors. the concerns regarding First Brands seem to lean more towards idiosyncratic fumbles than anything more ominous. With robust earnings and (more important) healthy earnings revision breadth the fundamental backdrop for the broader credit markets looks constructive." They note though that "default rates have been sticky (around X% for high yield bonds and XXX% for leveraged loans) and higher than the long-term average for some time and we expect them to stay"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T17:30Z 16.1K followers, 1938 engagements

"Earnings pick up in a big way this week with the unofficial start to 3Q earnings season with several of the big banks on Tuesday. In total well get around XX SPX reports next week with XX $100bn in market cap in JPM JNJ BAC WFC GS MS AXP ABT BLK C SCHW PGR PLD IBKR MMC (in order of market cap). Well also get some big non-SPX stocks in ASML and TSM among others"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T00:20Z 16.1K followers, 2918 engagements

"The St. Louis Feds 3Q GDP tracker continues to remain well below other trackers but actually saw some movement this week pushing up +0.24% w/w to +0.42% as of Friday. That is still around two to three percent below the other GDP trackers but at least moving in the right direction. They do not give a breakdown of the inputs. (As a reminder this indicator has had a mixed track record the past few years often undershooting actual GDP since Q2 XX (including for 2Q XX when it was -XXX% goo low) but was right on in Q1 & Q4 XX but then way too high at +3.07%() for Q1 25)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T01:32Z 16.1K followers, 2077 engagements

"Mag-7 ended up falling -XXX% which was the worst day since April"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T21:01Z 16.1K followers, 3506 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC & $APLD $STLA $SYF $BABA $MOS $LEVI $TSLA"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-10T12:57Z 16.1K followers, 2053 engagements

"MarketWatch: Wall Street veteran Jim Paulsen says he sees the potential for new leadership in the stock market. His chart shows the New York Fed recession probability index (red line) which Paulsen says is a good leading indicator for consumer confidence overlaid with the relative total-return performance (blue line) of an index comprising aggressive sectors of the stock market. The latter includes assets such as low quality stocks high beta stocks micro caps and IPOs. "Should more accommodative monetary policies finally stoke confidence these 'animal-spirit stocks' may take the lead" says"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-11T18:30Z 16.1K followers, 5070 engagements

"The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rebounded +0.4% from a mild two-session decline to just under the record highs hit Monday. Major equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher Thursday including Chinas Shanghai Composite (+1.3%) which reopened following the Golden Week holiday. South Korea reopens tomorrow. Note: easier to read if you click into the post. Japans Nikkei: +1.8% Hong Kongs Hang Seng: -XXX% Chinas Shanghai Composite: +1.3% Indias Sensex: +0.5% South Koreas Kospi: HOLIDAY Australias ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%. In news: China reportedly saw an XXXX% yr/yr increase in"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-09T13:17Z 16.1K followers, 2132 engagements

"Some mixed news on the UK labor market as despite the estimate of job losses since the budget last October being cut back to just 127k around half from initial estimates and slowed to -10k in Sept (and Aug revised to +10k) the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to XXX% in the three months to Aug the highest since May 2021 and private sector wage growth slowed to +4.4% the least since late 2021. The pound fell and traders increased bets on the chances of rate cuts next year. The latest UK jobs figures show tentative signs that the labor market could be past the worst following the hike in"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T12:51Z 16.1K followers, 2119 engagements

"1-Day VIX jumped to XXXX Friday the highest close since May 9th which was also on China worries (May 9th was the Friday ahead of the weekend China/US trade meeting when tariffs were above 100%). That level is implying a XXXX% move in the SPX Monday which if we do get will see further systematic selling"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T21:30Z 16.1K followers, 8832 engagements

"Chinas deflation eased in September but left the country on track for the longest streak of economy-wide price declines since market reforms in the late 1970s even as core consumer prices hit a 19-month high. Under pressure from falling food costs consumer prices dropped -XXX% the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday below the median estimate of -XXX% in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That said the core consumer price index excluding food and energy rose to a 19-month high of 1%. Producer prices remained more firmly in deflation falling -XXX% from a year earlier the 36th straight"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-15T02:46Z 16.1K followers, 1792 engagements

""Of the XX prior bull markets since World War II seven completed a fourth year with an average total gain of 88%. This one has essentially done that in three years putting the S&P 500s trailing price-to-earnings ratio at XX the highest ever for a bull market in its third year said Wall Street veteran and CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall." Ive never seen anything like this Stovall said. But history says the market isnt too far over its skis yet and doomed to fail. It just means gains need to rightsize soon"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T14:38Z 16.1K followers, 6897 engagements

"Some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $JOBY $ASTS $VZ $TMQ $USAR $RKLB $TMC $IONS $FIG $SOFI $EFX $NVDA $ABBNY $UBS $ASML $CFLT $QS $TSLA $SCCO $FCX $AAPL $META $INTC"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T13:07Z 16.1K followers, 2010 engagements

"MarketWatch: "We continue to watch $USDJPY as the USD pair with the most volatility potential notwithstanding its rangebound behavior of the last many weeks" says John Hardy Saxo's global head of market strategy. He adds that the two key event risks are the possibility of U.S. government shutdown and this Saturday's ruling LDP party leadership election in Japan "with some concern that a Takaichi win is more JPY bearish (but is this concern already in the price after all she seems the leading candidate." "If USDJPY sticks a close well below XXXXXX it looks like we have a failure of the upside"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-01T09:00Z 16.1K followers, 1271 engagements

"BoA on SPX gamma: Over the last month SPX gamma has been historically elevated and averaged long $8.2bn (97th %ile since 2014). Commensurate with the high gamma in Sept our estimates indicate that option delta hedging may have potentially reduced S&P 1-month realized volatility by up to 1.3pts or XX% of the vol level. As of Thursdays close SPX gamma was +$7.5bn (74th 1y %ile). So BoA like Tier1Alpha who I update on frequently during the week sees gamma as positive but off the levels of September. But at the 74th %ile (as of Friday) it should continue to provide a significant amount of"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-06T11:15Z 16.1K followers, 14.3K engagements

"I noted this in the morning Europe update but thought it was worth mentioning again. As CNBC notes the BoE has now had its "irrational exuberance" moment: On a number of measures equity market valuations appear stretched particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI) the the banks quarterly update on financial stability stated. This when combined with increasing concentration within market indices leaves equity markets particularly exposed should expectations around the impact of AI become less optimistic"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-08T16:45Z 16.1K followers, 2205 engagements

"BoA (Hartnett): we are long resources UK stocks to play AI bubble; bubbles = booms = best played via barbell of bubble (AI) and cheap cyclical assets (thats commodities today as AI devours commodities); price action valuation concentration speculation all frothy and lead indicators of inflation inflecting higher (ISM services prices paid rising) but every bubble in history popped by central bank tightening and no central bank in the world has hiked rates in past X months (Chart 3)"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-04T11:00Z 16.1K followers, 12.6K engagements

"1-Day VIX like the VIX & VVIX pushed back higher but unlike those didnt reach Fridays highs and ended at XXXX. Still that level is implying an XXXX% move in the SPX next session"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-14T23:00Z 16.1K followers, 1238 engagements

"Yardeni: The bubble in technology-related stocks today has less air than the one during 1999 (chart). Today the S&P XXX Information Technology and Communication Services sectors account for a record XXXX% of the index's market capitalization but also a record XXXX% of the index's forward earnings. During the Tech Bubble of 1999-2000 their combined market cap and forward earnings shares peaked at XXXX% and just 23.8%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T10:15Z 16.1K followers, 68.2K engagements

"In addition to Dell (see separate post) some pre-market company news from CNBC BBG MarketWatch & $TMQ $AEHR $DLTR $AMD $IBM $STZ $ICE $GLXY $EAT $APP $RDS $DNNGY $BMRRY $BBVA $TEF $PLUG $AMD $FNMA $FMCC $MKC $TSLA"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-07T13:05Z 16.1K followers, 2675 engagements

"US equity indices opened solidly higher following Sunday's de-escalation by Pres Trump with the gains building as the day progressed and indices closing at or near the highs led by the RUT's +2.7%. Nasdaq was +2.1% SPX +1.6% DJIA +1.3%"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T20:10Z 16.1K followers, 1800 engagements

"Government shutdown odds now up to the end of the month"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T00:30Z 16.1K followers, 3972 engagements

"Goldman: We expect households will represent the largest source of equity demand next year accounting for $XXX billion of net US equity purchases. Household wealth consumer confidence and cash yields have helped explain household equity flows in recent decades and point to continued demand in 2026. Consumer balance sheets remain healthy the Fed is cutting rates and our economists' forecasts for declining unemployment and slowing inflation next year bode well for consumer confidence. Notably though they see foreign investors more than halving their demand and selling from funds"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-13T12:00Z 16.1K followers, 3050 engagements

"And Charlie notes things are ripe for a "Vol rip": As previously-noted theres . the pesky Vega Rebalancing impact of VIX ETNs + VIX Option Dealer hedgingwhere less nasty now VIX spot XX but any escalation of the Spot selloff / iVol squeeze further towards that VIX XX and beyond level into the close will see a nasty chunk of VIX Vega (and-or SPX Downside / Skew) to buy"
X Link @neilksethi 2025-10-12T12:00Z 16.1K followers, 5365 engagements