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@TomAlphaTrades "@KobeissiLetter Small caps +2.09% is the real signal here ๐Ÿ’ช When $IWM outpaces $SPY it means: - Broad market participation (not just mega caps) - Risk appetite returning - Domestic-focused names catching bid May 27th was last rally of this magnitude Momentum building into earnings season"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"๐Ÿ”ฅ This isn't transitory - it's structural. Cattle inventories at 73-year LOWS while demand holds. Ranchers liquidated herds 2021-2023 during drought/high feed costs. Takes 2-3 YEARS to rebuild breeding stock. Translation: beef stays expensive through 2026 minimum. Watch $TSN $MCD $CMG margins get crushed. Consumer discretionary about to feel the squeeze. ๐Ÿ“‰"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T14:29Z XXX followers, 1443 engagements

"๐Ÿšจ NEW POSITION: $KSPI @ $XXXXX XX% portfolio Target $XXX (+73%) ๐ŸŽฏ Just bought what Goldman Sachs upgraded to BUY yesterday. Timing Chef's kiss ๐Ÿ‘จ๐Ÿณ Why KASPI is a hidden gem: ๐Ÿ“Š Trading at 7x P/E with 20-28% growth ๐Ÿ’Ž X% dividend yield ๐Ÿš€ XX% margins (yes forty-two percent) ๐ŸŒ Turkey expansion (100M+ users target) The Thesis: Category-killer super-app in Central Asia. Think WeChat had a baby with PayPal in Kazakhstan. 12M out of 19M citizens use their app DAILY. That's XX% penetration. Dominance. Why it's cheap: Temporary regulatory headwinds + Turkey expansion costs. Market thinks"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T15:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Full report completely free here ๐Ÿ“ฅ Inside you'll get: ๐Ÿ“‹ ๐Ÿ“Š 3-scenario valuation (Bear/Base/Bull) ๐Ÿš€ X strategic catalysts breakdown โš  Risk matrix with probabilities ๐Ÿ“ˆ Financial projections through FY27 ๐Ÿ’Ž Peer valuation gap analysis ๐Ÿ’ฐ Return attribution breakdown XX pages of institutional-grade analysis ๐Ÿ’ผ Zero cost. Zero BS. ๐ŸŽ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:14Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"You're right to questioncontext matters ๐ŸŽฏ 1) Participation XXXX% = below 2000 peak (67.3%) but STABLE. Not dropping = economy absorbing workers 2) Wages +4.2% vs CPI +2.7% = real gains NOW. Yes cumulatively 2021-25 still down -XXX% but trend flipped 3) GDP flawed Sure. But +3.8% driven by consumer spending +2.9% not just accounting tricks. Better than negative I'm not saying economy's perfectI'm saying it's cooling not collapsing. Distinction matters for positioning"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T19:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"This illustrates why I use long-dated puts instead of trying to time exact events. That whale either: - Had inside info (illegal) - Got insanely lucky (not repeatable) My approach: Buy volatility cheap (VIX 16%) wait for ANY shock to spike it. Don't need perfect timing. Just need fear eventually. Much higher probability game"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-11T21:19Z XXX followers, 8681 engagements

"$JNJ Q3: Fortress Balance Sheet Meets Growth Portfolio ๐Ÿ’ช THE NUMBERS: โœ… $24.0B sales (+5.4% organic) - Beat โœ… $XXXX adj EPS (+15.7%) - Beat โœ… $14B free cash flow (annualized) โœ… $9.3B dividends paid YTD WHY IT MATTERS: X. Pharma Transition Working - Darzalex $6.5B+ annualized (oncology beast) - Tremfya accelerating despite Stelara biosimilars - Carvykti CAR-T scaling nicely - Stelara hit was -1070 bps but EXPECTED X. MedTech Innovation Delivering - Cardiovascular +11.6%: Electrophysiology + Impella - Shockwave integration crushing it - Surgical Vision: TECNIS Odyssey/PureSee traction - OTTAVA"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T11:14Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$PYPL Investment Thesis: The XX% Upside Wall Street Is Missing ๐Ÿ“Š Published full 20-page equity research report yesterday. Here's the executive summary for traders who don't read ๐Ÿ‘‡ The Setup: PayPal trades at 12.9x NTM P/E. Visa trades at 27.7x. Mastercard at 31.7x. That's a XX% valuation discount despite comparable network effects ๐Ÿ’ฐ What Changed Recently: Transaction Margin Dollar growth accelerated to +8% - strongest growth in X quarters. Branded experiences TPV +8% reversing multi-year deceleration. This isn't noise. This is inflection ๐Ÿ“ˆ Three Strategic Catalysts On Track: ๐Ÿš€ Fastlane"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T16:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Accelerated timeline shifts market calculus. Friday's threat alone wiped $2T - now "sooner than Nov 1" adds more uncertainty ๐Ÿ’€ China's rare earth controls gave them leverage. Trump counters with timeline ambiguity. Result: Width of bid-ask spreads matter more than direction. Liquidity premium rising ๐Ÿ“ˆ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T16:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"๐Ÿšจ TRADE ALERT: Closing remaining $CVS position Sold XX shares @ $XXXXX (day limit filled) Realized P&L: +$598.68 Exit Rationale: Price hit resistance at $XX level. Taking profits after strong move from entry. Healthcare sector facing pressure from PBM reform headlines. Position now: FLAT Will reassess on pullback to $75-76 range if thesis remains intact ๐Ÿ“Š"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T16:53Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"๐Ÿงญ PORTFOLIO UPDATE Portfolio update $ORSTED.CO / $DNNGY I hold a position. rsted has filed suit to restart the $1.5B Revolution Wind project; the halt drove shares to record lowswhile a DKK 60bn ($9.4B) rights issue proceeds. My take: Catalyst path: near-term injunction = restart & sentiment relief; denial = deeper delay + dilution risk. What Im watching: court timeline rights terms PPA/permit signals from RI/CT and supplier knock-ons. Positioning: no change today; Ill reassess on the injunction/rights pricing. Risk tightly managed. ๐ŸŒฌโš–๐Ÿ“‰โžก๐Ÿ“ˆ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-04T14:09Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Perfect risk-on rotation across sectors today ๐Ÿ“Š Leaders: ๐ŸŸข Technology +2.84% $NVDA $AVGO $ORCL ๐ŸŸข Basic Materials +2.8% $FCX $NUE ๐ŸŸข Consumer Cyclical +1.8% $AMZN $TSLA Only red sector: Consumer Defensive -XXXX% Money flowing OUT of safety = bullish conviction All XX sectors positive (except defensives) shows broad market strength ๐Ÿ’ช"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@KobeissiLetter XXX% confidence gap = yellow flag for Powell ๐Ÿšจ Historic lows here preceded recessions. Labor softening faster than unemployment rate shows 50bps cuts suddenly looking justified"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T18:31Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Lee's track record deserves respect but 7K is ambitious ๐Ÿ’ก Base case: $SPY ends 2025 at 6800-6900 (+3-4%) Bull case: China breakthrough + strong earnings 7K+ Bear case: Recession fears resurface 6300-6500 Risk/reward still favors long exposure Just don't chase with leveraged bets this late in year"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:39Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"INSIDER TRADING XXX - WHAT THIS WEEK'S DATA ACTUALLY MEANS ๐Ÿ“š Seeing lots of panic about "insider selling" - let's break down what's really happening: This Week's Big Moves ๐Ÿ’ฐ: - $LLY: $260M sale (foundation not executive) - $DELL: $424M sale (foundation not executive) - Multiple "Proposed Sales" across tech/pharma What "Proposed Sale" Actually Means ๐Ÿง : NOT insider panic selling. It's a 10b5-1 plan: - Filed 30-90+ days in advance - Automated execution on set dates - Done to AVOID accusations of insider trading - Often set when stock was much lower Why October Is Heavy For Sales ๐Ÿ“…: - Tax"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T19:41Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"This is $NVDA's Mac moment for AI ๐Ÿ’ก $4k DGX Spark brings datacenter-class compute to desktopsrun DeepSeek R1 Llama 405B locally. No cloud needed Game theory: Give developers Grace Blackwell at home they demand it at work. Same playbook that made CUDA dominant Lock-in strategy wrapped in "democratization" narrative. Brilliant"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T19:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@KobeissiLetter Positive tone but traders know talk is cheap. We've seen this movie before in 2018-2019. Real catalyst = tariff rollback or concrete trade deal. Until then $SPY range-bound. Watching semis ($NVDA $AMD) for confirmation. ๐Ÿ‘€"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-12T15:27Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Trump pumping China optimism on Truth Social. We've seen this playbook before. Watch what happens not what's posted. Real move = tariff cuts or concrete trade deal. Until then any $SPY rally on this is a fade opportunity. Actions words. ๐Ÿ“‰"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-12T17:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$WFC Q3: Charlie Scharf's Transformation Thesis Playing Out ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ’ผ The headline: Beat on revenue CRUSHED on credit losses ๐Ÿ’ฅโœ… But the real story is what's happening under the hood ๐Ÿ”งโšก: CREDIT QUALITY INFLECTION ๐Ÿ›ก๐Ÿ“‰: - Provisions XX% below expectations ($681M vs $1.17B est) ๐Ÿ’ฅ - NCOs down to XXXX% - 5-quarter low โœ… - CRE office exposure improving (ACL down to 7.5%) ๐Ÿข๐Ÿ’ช - Market was pricing in recession. Wells saying "not seeing it" ๐Ÿ‘€ NEW TARGETS = NEW PLAYBOOK ๐ŸŽฏ๐Ÿš€: ROTCE target raised to 17-18% (from 15%) ๐Ÿ“ˆ CET1 target lowered to 10-10.5% (from 11%) ๐Ÿ“‰ Math: Higher returns + lower capital ="
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T11:33Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"36 consecutive months of PPI deflation = factory gate prices falling for X straight years ๐Ÿ“‰ Easing from -XXX% to -XXX% sounds good but context: This is exactly why ASML warned on China demand today. Weak producer prices = overcapacity + nobody buying. Watch for Beijing stimulus timing. If they move = sentiment shift for $FXI $ASHR $MCHI. If silence = deflation spiral continues โš  Trade: China materials/industrials compressed. Either massive policy response incoming or avoid entirely ๐ŸŽฏ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T07:08Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"JUST IN: $GOOGL Waymo launching London robotaxis in 2026 first European expansion ๐Ÿš— Key facts: - Testing starts now with safety drivers fully autonomous service 2026 (pending UK approval) โœ… - Jaguar I-Pace EVs via fleet partner Moove ๐Ÿ”‹ - Current scale: X US cities 250k+ paid rides/week 100M autonomous miles driven ๐Ÿ“Š Why it matters: London = validation of tech in dense complex urban environment (narrow streets left-hand driving unpredictable weather) ๐ŸŒง If Waymo succeeds here scales across Europe ๐ŸŒ Competition: Wayve (UK startup backed by $MSFT $NVDA) also launching 2026. But Waymo has"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T15:10Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"3 things Wall Street is missing about $JNJ ๐Ÿ‘‡ Everyone's obsessing over STELARA cliff. Missing the real alpha: X CARVYKTI Manufacturing Unlock ๐Ÿงฌ Q3 growth: +54% Status: SUPPLY-CONSTRAINED New facility launching 2026E: 5x current capacity Current run-rate: $1.6B Peak potential: $5-7B Hidden upside: +$3-4B NOT in consensus Plus: 2nd-line approval 2026 = TAM expansion X VARIPULSE = MedTech Sleeper โšก Tech advantage: โœ“ Pulsed field ablation (vs old thermal) โœ“ 30-45 min procedures (vs 2-3 hours) โœ“ Safer no injury risk Market opportunity: $10B+ TAM $2-3B franchise potential by 2027E Market sleeping"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T18:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Download the full 21-page $NU analysis here (100% FREE): No paywall. Just analysis. ๐Ÿ“Š"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T13:30Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"$JNJ Q3 earnings tomorrow morningtrading $XXXXXX near 52W high ($192.10) ๐ŸŽฏ Market expects: $XXXX EPS (+15%) $23.74B revenue What they must deliver: X Oncology saves the day - DARZALEX/CARVYKTI/TREMFYA doing 20-30%+ growth - Need to offset STELARA biosimilar cliff (-1170bps impact) X MedTech China story - VBP + anti-corruption = ongoing headwind - H2 acceleration narrative critical (Abiomed/Shockwave contributing) X Guidance confidence - Tariffs ($400M cost baked in) - Part D redesign impact - 2025 outlook reaffirm or raise ๐Ÿšจ Elephant in room: Talc litigation - LA jury hit them with $966M"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T17:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"JUST IN: $BAC Q3 Earnings ๐Ÿ“Š Q3 Results vs Estimates: โœ… EPS: $XXXX vs $XXXX exp (+12% beat) โœ… Revenue: $28.24B vs $27.5B exp โœ… Net Interest Income: $15.23B vs $15.03B exp โœ… Trading Revenue: $5.35B vs $5.01B exp (+7% beat) โœ… Investment Banking: $2.0B (+43% YoY) Net income up XX% YoY to $8.5B. This is the template for what banks should look like in this cycle ๐Ÿ’ฐ The story: Capital markets driving upside. Trading beat + IB fees surge = institutional activity accelerating. NII growth (+9% YoY) shows rate positioning working despite flat curve pressures ๐Ÿ“ˆ Context: $JPM $GS $C $WFC all beat this"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T12:15Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"Just finished my deep-dive into $JNJ Q3 earnings + strategic roadmap ๐Ÿ“Š Upgrading to BUY ๐ŸŽฏ Current: $XXXXXX Target: $XXX ๐Ÿš€ +13.5% total return. Here's why ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐Ÿ“ˆ Q3 BEAT Revenue: +5.2% organic (beat guide) โœ… Op Margin: XXXX% (+220bps YoY) โœ… Guidance: Raised โœ… ๐Ÿ”„ POST-KENVUE TRANSFORMATION Since spinoff: Growth: +1.6% +5.2% ๐Ÿ“Š Margin: XXXX% XXXX% ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐Ÿš€ GROWTH DRIVERS DARZALEX: +21% TREMFYA: +34% CARVYKTI: +54% โš  "But STELARA cliff" My model: Growth drivers +$15B vs STELARA -$5B NET: +$10B despite the cliff โœ… ๐ŸŽฏ VALUATION DCF: $XXX Multiples: $XXX Fair Value: $XXX Upside: +13.5% ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐Ÿ’ก WHY"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T17:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"This is why "cash is trash" for long-term wealth ๐Ÿ“Š Inflation destroys XXXX% of purchasing power over XX years Meanwhile equities preserve AND grow wealth Takeaway: Stay invested in quality assets $SPY $VOO for passive exposure $GLD for inflation hedge allocation Time in market timing the market"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:43Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"JUST IN: $WFC Q3 results ๐Ÿ’ฐ โœ… Revenue $21.44B (beat $21.16B) โš  NII $11.95B (slight miss) โœ… IB fees $840M (ahead) โœ…โœ… Credit losses $681M vs $1.17B est (huge beat) โœ… Efficiency XX% (maintained) Credit provision -XX% below expectations = asset quality strong Deposit margin pressure continues but manageable"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T10:57Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"5.4B bookings beat estimates but here's the math that matters: China = XX% of ASML sales yet management says 2026 won't drop below 2025 ๐Ÿ“Š Translation: AI demand from $TSM $INTC needs to offset an entire region. 3.6B of Q3 bookings was EUV (high-margin AI-driven). Watch Q4 guide execution: 9.2-9.8B. If they hit mid-point = China fade priced AI thesis intact ๐Ÿ’Ž"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T06:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$1211.HK (BYD) EU sales surge & leadership vs $TSLA (portfolio update) ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿš— Aug EU sales X YoY; +201.3% Y/Y XXX% EU share (per ACEA). 2nd month in a row ahead of $TSLA (Tesla XXXX% Y/Y share XXX% vs X% last year). Market backdrop: EU+UK+EFTA +4.7% to 0.8M units; EU-only +5.3%. Incumbents: $STLA +2.2% $VOW3 +4.8% Renault +7.8%. China brands gaining: SAIC/MG +59.4%; YTD EU share XXX% (top-10). Why it matters: BYDs export ramp is translating into share gains in Europe not just shipments. Narrative momentum vs. $TSLA strengthens. Watch next: pricing vs. tariffs local assembly footprints and EU"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-25T13:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"JUST IN: $JNJ Q3 beats + orthopaedics spin-off ๐Ÿ’Š โœ… Adj EPS: $XXXX (vs $XXXX YoY) +16% โœ… Sales: $23.99B (beat $23.74B est) โœ… MedTech: $8.43B (+6.8% Y/Y) โœ… Guidance raised: $10.80-$10.90 EPS โœ… Sales guidance: $93.5-$93.9B Strategic shift: Spinning off orthopaedics Focus on high-growth pharma + MedTech Darzalex ($3.67B) + Stelara ($1.57B) delivering"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T10:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Market close: Rotation into financials continues semis mixed ๐Ÿ“Š Mega moves today: $AMD +9.25% ๐Ÿš€ (biggest winner AI optimism) $BAC +4.4% ๐Ÿ’ฐ (post-earnings surge) $WFC +2.19% $JPM +1.36% (banks leading) Mag X divergence: โœ… Green: $GOOG +1.88% $META +1.04% $TSLA +1.12% โŒ Red: $AMZN -XXXX% $MSFT -XXXX% $NFLX -XXXX% โšช Flat: $NVDA -XXXX% $AAPL +0.68% Other notables: $AVGO +2.04% (semi strength continues) $WMT +1.61% $COST +0.91% (consumer discretionary holding) $LLY +1.80% (healthcare resilient) Pattern: Money rotating from mega cap tech financials + broadening into value. Banks crushing earnings"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T20:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"@unusual_whales Translation for traders: if your customer base is sub-$175K household income margins are getting compressed. Look at companies pricing power: those who can't raise prices without losing volume are the shorts. Premium brands with inelastic demand are longs"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T12:59Z XXX followers, 4514 engagements

"Goldman Sachs just dropped AI capex forecasts and the numbers are insane ๐Ÿงต Hyperscalers ($MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $ORCL): - 2022-2024: $485B spent - 2025-2027: $1.4T projected (3x increase) That's not a typo. $XXX TRILLION in X years. Here's the problem nobody's talking about: At 6-7% cost of capital that $1.4T needs $100B in returns EVERY YEAR just to break even. That's a whole $AAPL worth of profit. just to justify X years of spending. Meanwhile GS notes commodity/old economy capex DOWN since 2014. AI is sucking all available capital. This either works spectacularly or becomes the biggest"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T18:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$JPM $GS both beat but dig deeper ๐Ÿ“Š JPM GAAP EPS +91% vs Adjusted +16% = accounting magic Real story: Markets revenue $8.9B (+25% YoY) carrying the show - Fixed Income +21% Equity +33% = trading desk feast - NII ex Markets FLAT despite loans up X% Meanwhile: $8B buybacks in ONE quarter CET1 down to XXXX% = returning capital aggressively Banks are traders now not lenders"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$CON.DE New Continental after Aumovio: tires-led cash machine ๐Ÿ›ž๐Ÿ’ธ - 9/18: auto-parts unit spun out as Aumovio; remaining biz = Continental Tires + ContiTech (planned sale in 2026) - Value now Tires: of revenue from aftermarket less cyclical better pricing - Capex slightly D&A; disciplined portfolio = top-tier margins/asset efficiency vs larger peers - Street fair value 78; classification no-moat; long-run FCF margin X% - Capital returns: dividend at top of 4060% payout band; optionality for specials/buybacks post-ContiTech Why it matters: re-rating case shifts from auto supplier cycle to a"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-25T13:47Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"JUST IN: $AAPL launches M5 chip lineup: MacBook Pro ($1599+) iPad Pro 11" ($999) Vision Pro ($3499) ๐Ÿ’ป Pre-orders open now MacBook ships Oct XX. Wall Street angle: Premium pricing intact despite macro headwinds. $AAPL maintaining margins while pushing performance envelope with M5 = Services + Hardware flywheel working. Vision Pro at $3499 (vs $3499 launch) = no price cut strategy. Cook betting on enterprise adoption over consumer price sensitivity. Timing matters: Launches ahead of holiday quarter + earnings (Oct 31). Sets up strong guidance if demand holds. Watch gross margin trajectory. If"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T14:44Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"JUST IN: Big banks report blowout earnings but CEOs warn of bubble risk ๐Ÿ“Šโš  The paradox: $JPM $GS $C all crushed Q3 estimates driven by IB/trading revival (+12%+ across board). Yet executives simultaneously cautioning about "valuation frothiness" and assets "entering bubble territory." Jamie Dimon: "We have a lot of assets which look like they're entering bubble territory. That doesn't mean they don't have XX% to go. It's just one more cause of concern." ๐Ÿ’ฐ Jane Fraser (Citi): "There are pockets of valuation frothiness in the market so I hope discipline remains." The tension: Banks printing"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T12:27Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"TRADE ALERT $CON (Continental AG) ๐Ÿ›ž Bought XXX @ XXXXX (23 Sep 2025) Thesis Post-spin setup: After the Aumovio spin-off $CON is essentially a tyre pure-playsimpler higher-margin cash-generative replacement mix; lower-margin auto systems carved out. ๐Ÿ”ง Technical mispricing: Spin distribution + index/flow effects pressured both legs; room for re-rating as investors re-underwrite the cleaner story and the board outlines a higher payout policy. ๐Ÿ“‰โžก๐Ÿ“ˆ Portfolio action: Ongoing portfolio streamlining (incl. potential ContiTech separation) + clearer balance sheet supports capital returns. ๐Ÿงญ Macro"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-23T13:26Z XXX followers, 2656 engagements

"Market Close: Risk-Off Rotation Continues ๐Ÿ“Š Semis got hammered again: $NVDA -XXXX% $AVGO -XXXX% $ORCL -XXXX% $MU -XXXX% Tariff overhang still dominant narrative. Sector bleeding despite Greer's "work through it" comments ๐Ÿ“‰ Mega cap tech mixed but mostly red: $AMZN -XXXX% $TSLA -XXXX% $META -XXXX% $AAPL -XXXX% $GOOG +0.11% (only green FAANG) Financials weak: $JPM -XXXX% Credit services (+1.10%) outperforming banks Flight to safety = consumer staples: $WMT +4.58% ๐Ÿ”ฅ $COST +0.92% $KO +0.83% $PG +0.77% Market pricing recession scenario OR margin relief from lower input costs. Probably both ๐Ÿ’ฐ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T20:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$WFC: Do the capital return math ๐Ÿงฎ Beat by $0.11/share 3.2B shares = $350M+ quarterly upside $6.1B buybacks in Q3 alone (6% of shares retired YoY) CET1 dropping from XX% 10-10.5% range = another $6-8B for buybacks At $1.66/share run-rate that's 8-9% earnings yield All going back to shareholders. That's the story"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:27Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"PORTFOLIO UPDATE ๐Ÿ“Š YTD RESULTS 2025 TomAlpha: +78.3% ๐Ÿš€ S&P 500: +15.1% ACWI: +19.4% SINCE INCEPTION 04/2021 TomAlpha: +441.7% ๐Ÿ”ฅ S&P 500: +63.3% ACWI: +42.6% MY POSITIONS (by portfolio share) XX% iShares Gold Trust $IAU ๐Ÿช™ XX% Evolution AB $EVVTY XX% BYD (H-shares) $BYDDY XX% Wizz Air $WIZZ X% PayPal $PYPL X% Hugo Boss $BOSSY X% Continental $CTTAY X% Euronet Worldwide $EEFT X% $KSPI X% Porsche AG $DRPRY X% Halliburton $HAL X% Bayer $BAYRY X% Ping An $PNGAY X% Volkswagen $VWAGY X% CVS Health $CVS X% Aumovio SE $AMV0"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T13:20Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"JUST IN: $MS Q3 Earnings - MASSIVE BEAT ๐Ÿ“Š Q3 Results vs Estimates: โœ… EPS: $XXXX vs $XXXX exp (+33% beat - largest in X years) โœ… Revenue: $18.22B vs $16.70B exp โœ… Investment Banking: $2.11B vs $1.68B exp (+44% YoY) โœ… Equities Trading: $4.12B vs $3.41B exp (+21% beat) โœ… Wealth Management: $8.23B vs $7.78B exp Net income up XX% YoY to $4.61B. This is what happens when all cylinders fire simultaneously ๐Ÿ’ฐ The story: Institutional Securities on fire. Equities trading crushed estimates by $720M = volatility + client activity exploding. IB fees +44% confirms M&A/IPO renaissance isn't slowing ๐Ÿ“ˆ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T12:17Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"๐Ÿšจ INSIDER SELLING WAVE - Oct 9th Notable dumps TODAY: $LLY - Lilly Endowment: $86M sale (10% owner) $SNX - Dennis Polk (Officer): $2.7M sale $KVYO - CEO Andrew Bialecki: $4M sale $AGX - Officer: $1.2M sale vs. $ZBIO - Director Lu Hongbo: $5M BUY โœ… When C-suite sells en masse on the same day I pay attention.Either tax planning season or they know something we don't. ๐Ÿ‘€"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T20:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"36th straight month of PPI deflation = X years of factory gate price declines ๐Ÿ“‰ Yes improvement from -XXX% to -XXX% but context matters: This validates ASML's China warning today. Weak producer prices = overcapacity + soft demand. Trade implication: China deflation pressure on $FXI materials/industrials. Watch for stimulus announcement timing. If Beijing acts = sentiment shift ๐ŸŽฏ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T07:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$833B per month = entire $NVDA market cap added every X months ๐Ÿช™ This isn't just gold rallying. This is global wealth reallocation: - Sovereign wealth funds: XX% gold allocation (up from XX% in 2020) - Central banks: 700+ tons YTD vs XXX historical avg - Family offices: Adding 5-10% gold sleeves to 60/40 portfolios When the world's largest pools of capital shift 5-10% into one asset. That's $10T+ flow potential. We're only halfway through this rotation ๐Ÿ“Š"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T16:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Market Close: Tech absolutely ripped ๐Ÿ’ฅ $AVGO +10.04% (AI infrastructure beast) ๐Ÿš€ $ORCL +5.67% $TSLA +5.06% $GOOG +3.14% $NVDA +2.53% Mag X carrying the market again. Some things never change ๐Ÿ’ช"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T20:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Just published my full 21-page investment research report on $NU Holdings ๐Ÿ“Š FREE download no paywall Key findings: ๐Ÿ“ˆ Target: $XX (+46% from $15.08) ๐Ÿ’ฐ ROE: XX% (2x Brazilian banks) ๐Ÿ’Ž Net Margin: XX% (8x industry average) ๐Ÿฆ Balance Sheet: $10.6B net cash XX% LDR Three catalysts with PROVEN Q2 data: X Mexico Profitability Inflection - 8.9M customers (+191% YoY) - Q4'26 breakeven 2027 adds +$0.04-0.06 EPS X Hyperplane AI Deployment - Q2'25: +100bps market share gain in ONE quarter - ARPAC acceleration XX% XX% CAGR projected X INSS Secured Loan Recovery - $4.1B portfolio (+200% YoY growth) -"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T13:30Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"WALL STREET IS COMPLETELY WRONG ABOUT $PYPL ๐ŸŽฏ Here's what they're missing: ๐Ÿ”ฅ Transaction margins accelerating to +8% ๐Ÿš€ New checkout product showing XX% conversion uplift ๐Ÿ’ฐ Venmo monetization ramping (+20% revenue) ๐Ÿ’ช Still 400M users with network effects ๐Ÿ“Š Trading at XX% discount to card networks I spent 15+ hours uncovering the real story ๐Ÿ“Š My 20-page forensic analysis ๐Ÿ‘‡"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"2Y Upside Top X from my portfolio ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿงญ $EEFT +88% (87.91 165) $1211.HK +80% (108.2 195) $VOW3 +72% (93.26 160) $KSPI +58% (84.38 133) $WIZZ +58% (1200 1890) Why it matters: positioning leans into idiosyncratic catalysts (rails/fintech China autos EU mobility). Watch: execution vs. targets margins and rates/liquidity backdrop. ๐Ÿ“Š"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-25T13:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$JPM Q3 tells you everything about markets right now ๐Ÿ“Š Trading desk printing money (+25% YoY) IB fees recovering (+14% YoY to $2.7B) But credit team building reserves faster = caution brewing Dimon getting paid on volatility while hedging the downside This is peak "make hay while sun shines" mode"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:24Z XXX followers, XX engagements

"China & EM Share-Gain Engines (12Y Upside from my portfolio) ๐ŸŒโš™ - $1211.HK (BYD) +83% (106.5 195) export ramp + vertical integration; EU share gains. Watch: tariffs local assembly footprints. (11% of my ptf) - $2318.HK (Ping An) +35% (48.14 65) insurance + fintech ecosystem; capital discipline. Watch: policy backdrop investment yield. (3%) - $KSPI +58% (84.0 133) EM super-app (payments/credit/commerce) with high ROE; cross-sell lifts ARPU. Watch: credit quality regulation. (4%) Why this sleeve: compounding platforms with share-gain + re-rating potential over 1224 months"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-28T17:34Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Down X% on tariff overhang. Trump's XXX% China tariffs (Nov X start) + rare earth export controls = whole sector risk-off mode ๐Ÿ“‰ Catalyst tomorrow: $TSM earnings pre-market. Strong guidance = relief rally potential. Weak print = semis capitulate below key supports. Trade the reaction: $XXX NVDA support critical. Break = $XXX next. Hold = dead cat bounce into macro uncertainty โš "
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T15:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@Investingcom $GLD breaking $4070 = flight to safety accelerating. With global uncertainty Fed rate cuts expected and central bank buying this could run to $4200-4300. Gold miners $GDX $GDXJ offer 2-3x leverage to spot price. Momentum trade intact. ๐Ÿ“ˆ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T08:26Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Agreed on $MELI ๐ŸŽฏWhile you're watching Argentina I just loaded $KSPI - playing the same EM fintech thesis in Central Asia: 7x P/E vs MELI 60x XX% margins XX% population penetration Expanding to Turkey (85M people) Currency stabilization digital payments explosionSame playbook earlier innings ๐Ÿ“ˆ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T19:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Race for data moat not profit ๐Ÿ“Š $GOOGL's Waymo burns $1.25B/quarter vs $373M revenue. London move pre-empts Wayve (UK startup backed by SoftBank/Microsoft launching 2026). 100M autonomous miles = competitive edge. But UK's Automated Vehicles Act doesn't finalize until H2 2027. Lock in partnerships now monetize later strategy ๐Ÿ’ฐ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T19:20Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Consistent with $MS 2025 outlookthey expect phased tariff approach not abrupt severance Key context: China redirected exports during 2018 trade war (total volumes stayed flat despite US decline) Full decoupling = too costly for both sides. De-risking Yes. Divorce Unlikely"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T18:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@nataninvesting Shareholder-focused management in action ๐Ÿ’ช -XXXX% YoY share count (your slice of earnings grows) $6B program = X% of market cap over XX months At 12.9x P/E = exceptional ROI on buybacks Part of my 3-pillar thesis to $XXX (+43% upside) Full analysis:"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T20:34Z XXX followers, 4817 engagements

"@KobeissiLetter $CCJ $NXE - Uranium play on nuclear renaissance Physical supply deficit + AI data centers = structural bull case Sprott uranium trust absorbing float ๐Ÿ“Š"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T13:36Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"@KobeissiLetter $XPD squeeze: SA curtailments + uncertain Russian flows + big short base = sharp rip. Near-term tightness but medium-term headwinds (EV adoption Pt substitution). Watch Pd/Pt spread and auto build rates. ๐Ÿ”Ž"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-08T13:14Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"My Portfolio Performance vs Benchmark ๐Ÿ“Š (as of October 13th 2025) TomAlpha: YTD +77.4% 1Y +100.8% 3Y +280.5% Inception +440.7% $SPX: YTD +11.7% 1Y +12.7% 3Y +78.4% Inception +58.4% Top Holdings: - Nu Holdings $NU - XX% - iShares Gold Trust $IAU - XX% - BYD Company $BYD - XX% - Evolution AB $EVO - XX% - Wizz Air $WIZZ - X% - Euronet Worldwide $EEFT - X% - $KSPI - X% - PayPal $PYPL - X% - Hugo Boss $BOSS - X% - Continental AG $CON - X% Risk Management: XX% portfolio hedged with $SPY/$SPLG put options. Friday's Trump tariff crash ($SPX -2.7%) generated $1500 profit on hedges while maintaining"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:48Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Trump threatens China tariffs tech bleeds $NVDA -XXXX% $AVGO -XXXX% $ORCL -XXXX% $TSLA -XXXX% Meanwhile: $WFC +3.43% $V +1.40% Tariff risk separates real China exposure from everything else Watch what bleeds vs what shrugs it off ๐Ÿ“Š"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T14:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"CHINA JUST PLAYED THEIR TRUMP CARD - LITERALLY ๐ŸŽฏ The Setup โ™Ÿ: Yesterday: China expands rare earth export controls (5 new minerals) Today: Trump cancels Xi meeting threatens "massive" new tariffs Markets: Instant selloff across tech ๐Ÿ“‰ What's Really Happening Here ๐Ÿง : This isn't random. China KNEW this would trigger Trump. They did it anyway right before the APEC summit. Why ๐Ÿ’ญ Because Rare Earths = Nuclear Option โ˜ข: - China controls 90%+ global supply ๐ŸŒ - Used in semiconductors EVs defense phones ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ”‹โš”๐Ÿ“ฑ - No viable alternative supply exists at scale - Processing takes YEARS to build"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T17:05Z XXX followers, 1461 engagements

"JUST IN: $ASML Q3 Earnings ๐Ÿ“Š Q3 Results vs Estimates: โœ… Bookings: 5.4B vs 5.36B exp (slight beat) โœ… Net Income: 2.13B vs 2.07B exp โœ… Revenue: 7.5B (mid-range of 7.4-7.9B guide) โœ… Gross Margin: XXXX% (upper end of 50-52% guide) The AI story: 3.6B of bookings = EUV systems for advanced chips. OpenAI alone locked $1T+ in datacenter deals driving litho demand ๐Ÿ’ฐ The China problem: 2026 expects "significant demand drop" from market that's XX% of sales. $ASML +25% YTD = market betting AI growth China fade ๐Ÿ“ˆ Key tension: Targeting 60B revenue by 2030 (vs 28.3B in 2024) = doubling in X years. Math"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T07:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Today's S&P 500: Tech & Financials lead the rally Top performers: ๐ŸŸข Semiconductors: $AVGO +6.7% $NVDA +2.5% ๐ŸŸข Software: $ORCL +3.3% $CRM +0.9% ๐ŸŸข Banks: $JPM +2.5% $C +2.1% Defensive sectors lagging Mixed signal for broader market"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"Pre-market tech rally led by semis after $ASML crushes Q3 ๐Ÿ’Ž Key numbers: 5.4B bookings with 3.6B in EUV alone (vs 2.3B Q2). That's +57% QoQ in cutting-edge lithography demand. AI infrastructure capex is accelerating not slowing. ๐Ÿ“ˆ $NVDA +2.84% $AVGO +2.40% $AMD +2.53% leading. Mega caps all green pre-market. ASML Q4 guide: 9.2-9.8B (massive sequential jump from 7.5B Q3). Full-year growth 15%. Trade implication: Equipment orders lead chip production 6-9 months out. EUV surge = validation of AI chip demand through mid-2026. Semi names breaking out = buy signal for infrastructure trade. ๐Ÿš€"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T13:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements

"$JNJ guidance raise is margin story ๐Ÿ“ˆ Sales up 30bps BUT maintaining X% EPS growth = margin expansion Innovative Medicine adj segment margin XXXX% (was 37.9%) That's +640bps YoY XX brands double-digit growth offsetting Stelara cliff Free cash flow $14B run rate funds everything"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements