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Tom ๐ ฐ๏ธLPHA Trades | +440% since โ21 (~45%/yr) ๐ posts on X about china, $nvda, $avgo, $jnj the most. They currently have XXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.
Social category influence stocks XXXXX% finance XXXXX% technology brands XXXX% countries XXXXX% automotive brands XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXXX% travel destinations XXXX% social networks XXXX% currencies XXXX% fashion brands XXXX%
Social topic influence china 12.39%, $nvda #1456, $avgo #201, $jnj #86, $orcl #226, $tsla #679, $jpm #127, $spy #1443, byd #458, investment XXXX%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kobeissiletter @investingcom @unusualwhales @jessecoheninv @ft @czechinvestor @nataninvesting @stockmarketnerd @bitesyourfinger @superleap88 @kostrhountomas @czech_investor
Top assets mentioned NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) SPDR S&P XXX ETF Trust (SPY) Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) NuCypher (NU) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Metadium (META) Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT) Goldman Sachs (GS) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Basis Cash (BAC) SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) GammaSwap (GS) Morgan Stanley (MS) Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) McDonald's Corp (MCD) Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) CVS Health Corp (CVS)
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"@KobeissiLetter Small caps +2.09% is the real signal here ๐ช When $IWM outpaces $SPY it means: - Broad market participation (not just mega caps) - Risk appetite returning - Domestic-focused names catching bid May 27th was last rally of this magnitude Momentum building into earnings season"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:09Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"BYD (1211 HK) quick thesis ๐๐ Vertical integration (Blade LFP e-axle) = durable cost edge. New DM-i XXX PHEV cycle (Qin L/Seal XX from RMB 99800) lifts share. Overseas capacity (Thailand 150k; Brazil $3.1B) helps offset tariffs/logistics. 2-yr target: HK$195 (+85%). Key watch: EU duties (10% + 17%) product mix overseas ramp price-war intensity. Want a full thread with models & risks Like/comment and Ill publish"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-06T13:33Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"๐ฅ This isn't transitory - it's structural. Cattle inventories at 73-year LOWS while demand holds. Ranchers liquidated herds 2021-2023 during drought/high feed costs. Takes 2-3 YEARS to rebuild breeding stock. Translation: beef stays expensive through 2026 minimum. Watch $TSN $MCD $CMG margins get crushed. Consumer discretionary about to feel the squeeze. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T14:29Z XXX followers, 1443 engagements
"๐จ NEW POSITION: $KSPI @ $XXXXX XX% portfolio Target $XXX (+73%) ๐ฏ Just bought what Goldman Sachs upgraded to BUY yesterday. Timing Chef's kiss ๐จ๐ณ Why KASPI is a hidden gem: ๐ Trading at 7x P/E with 20-28% growth ๐ X% dividend yield ๐ XX% margins (yes forty-two percent) ๐ Turkey expansion (100M+ users target) The Thesis: Category-killer super-app in Central Asia. Think WeChat had a baby with PayPal in Kazakhstan. 12M out of 19M citizens use their app DAILY. That's XX% penetration. Dominance. Why it's cheap: Temporary regulatory headwinds + Turkey expansion costs. Market thinks"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T15:37Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Full report completely free here ๐ฅ Inside you'll get: ๐ ๐ 3-scenario valuation (Bear/Base/Bull) ๐ X strategic catalysts breakdown โ Risk matrix with probabilities ๐ Financial projections through FY27 ๐ Peer valuation gap analysis ๐ฐ Return attribution breakdown XX pages of institutional-grade analysis ๐ผ Zero cost. Zero BS. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:14Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"$JNJ Q3: Fortress Balance Sheet Meets Growth Portfolio ๐ช THE NUMBERS: โ
$24.0B sales (+5.4% organic) - Beat โ
$XXXX adj EPS (+15.7%) - Beat โ
$14B free cash flow (annualized) โ
$9.3B dividends paid YTD WHY IT MATTERS: X. Pharma Transition Working - Darzalex $6.5B+ annualized (oncology beast) - Tremfya accelerating despite Stelara biosimilars - Carvykti CAR-T scaling nicely - Stelara hit was -1070 bps but EXPECTED X. MedTech Innovation Delivering - Cardiovascular +11.6%: Electrophysiology + Impella - Shockwave integration crushing it - Surgical Vision: TECNIS Odyssey/PureSee traction - OTTAVA"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T11:14Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"You're right to questioncontext matters ๐ฏ 1) Participation XXXX% = below 2000 peak (67.3%) but STABLE. Not dropping = economy absorbing workers 2) Wages +4.2% vs CPI +2.7% = real gains NOW. Yes cumulatively 2021-25 still down -XXX% but trend flipped 3) GDP flawed Sure. But +3.8% driven by consumer spending +2.9% not just accounting tricks. Better than negative I'm not saying economy's perfectI'm saying it's cooling not collapsing. Distinction matters for positioning"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T19:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"This illustrates why I use long-dated puts instead of trying to time exact events. That whale either: - Had inside info (illegal) - Got insanely lucky (not repeatable) My approach: Buy volatility cheap (VIX 16%) wait for ANY shock to spike it. Don't need perfect timing. Just need fear eventually. Much higher probability game"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-11T21:19Z XXX followers, 8681 engagements
"$PYPL Investment Thesis: The XX% Upside Wall Street Is Missing ๐ Published full 20-page equity research report yesterday. Here's the executive summary for traders who don't read ๐ The Setup: PayPal trades at 12.9x NTM P/E. Visa trades at 27.7x. Mastercard at 31.7x. That's a XX% valuation discount despite comparable network effects ๐ฐ What Changed Recently: Transaction Margin Dollar growth accelerated to +8% - strongest growth in X quarters. Branded experiences TPV +8% reversing multi-year deceleration. This isn't noise. This is inflection ๐ Three Strategic Catalysts On Track: ๐ Fastlane"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T16:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Accelerated timeline shifts market calculus. Friday's threat alone wiped $2T - now "sooner than Nov 1" adds more uncertainty ๐ China's rare earth controls gave them leverage. Trump counters with timeline ambiguity. Result: Width of bid-ask spreads matter more than direction. Liquidity premium rising ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T16:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"๐จ TRADE ALERT: Closing remaining $CVS position Sold XX shares @ $XXXXX (day limit filled) Realized P&L: +$598.68 Exit Rationale: Price hit resistance at $XX level. Taking profits after strong move from entry. Healthcare sector facing pressure from PBM reform headlines. Position now: FLAT Will reassess on pullback to $75-76 range if thesis remains intact ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T16:53Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"๐งญ PORTFOLIO UPDATE Portfolio update $ORSTED.CO / $DNNGY I hold a position. rsted has filed suit to restart the $1.5B Revolution Wind project; the halt drove shares to record lowswhile a DKK 60bn ($9.4B) rights issue proceeds. My take: Catalyst path: near-term injunction = restart & sentiment relief; denial = deeper delay + dilution risk. What Im watching: court timeline rights terms PPA/permit signals from RI/CT and supplier knock-ons. Positioning: no change today; Ill reassess on the injunction/rights pricing. Risk tightly managed. ๐ฌโ๐โก๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-04T14:09Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"Perfect risk-on rotation across sectors today ๐ Leaders: ๐ข Technology +2.84% $NVDA $AVGO $ORCL ๐ข Basic Materials +2.8% $FCX $NUE ๐ข Consumer Cyclical +1.8% $AMZN $TSLA Only red sector: Consumer Defensive -XXXX% Money flowing OUT of safety = bullish conviction All XX sectors positive (except defensives) shows broad market strength ๐ช"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@KobeissiLetter XXX% confidence gap = yellow flag for Powell ๐จ Historic lows here preceded recessions. Labor softening faster than unemployment rate shows 50bps cuts suddenly looking justified"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T18:31Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Lee's track record deserves respect but 7K is ambitious ๐ก Base case: $SPY ends 2025 at 6800-6900 (+3-4%) Bull case: China breakthrough + strong earnings 7K+ Bear case: Recession fears resurface 6300-6500 Risk/reward still favors long exposure Just don't chase with leveraged bets this late in year"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:39Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"INSIDER TRADING XXX - WHAT THIS WEEK'S DATA ACTUALLY MEANS ๐ Seeing lots of panic about "insider selling" - let's break down what's really happening: This Week's Big Moves ๐ฐ: - $LLY: $260M sale (foundation not executive) - $DELL: $424M sale (foundation not executive) - Multiple "Proposed Sales" across tech/pharma What "Proposed Sale" Actually Means ๐ง : NOT insider panic selling. It's a 10b5-1 plan: - Filed 30-90+ days in advance - Automated execution on set dates - Done to AVOID accusations of insider trading - Often set when stock was much lower Why October Is Heavy For Sales ๐
: - Tax"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T19:41Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"This is $NVDA's Mac moment for AI ๐ก $4k DGX Spark brings datacenter-class compute to desktopsrun DeepSeek R1 Llama 405B locally. No cloud needed Game theory: Give developers Grace Blackwell at home they demand it at work. Same playbook that made CUDA dominant Lock-in strategy wrapped in "democratization" narrative. Brilliant"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T19:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@KobeissiLetter Positive tone but traders know talk is cheap. We've seen this movie before in 2018-2019. Real catalyst = tariff rollback or concrete trade deal. Until then $SPY range-bound. Watching semis ($NVDA $AMD) for confirmation. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-12T15:27Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Trump pumping China optimism on Truth Social. We've seen this playbook before. Watch what happens not what's posted. Real move = tariff cuts or concrete trade deal. Until then any $SPY rally on this is a fade opportunity. Actions words. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-12T17:45Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$WFC Q3: Charlie Scharf's Transformation Thesis Playing Out ๐๐ผ The headline: Beat on revenue CRUSHED on credit losses ๐ฅโ
But the real story is what's happening under the hood ๐งโก: CREDIT QUALITY INFLECTION ๐ก๐: - Provisions XX% below expectations ($681M vs $1.17B est) ๐ฅ - NCOs down to XXXX% - 5-quarter low โ
- CRE office exposure improving (ACL down to 7.5%) ๐ข๐ช - Market was pricing in recession. Wells saying "not seeing it" ๐ NEW TARGETS = NEW PLAYBOOK ๐ฏ๐: ROTCE target raised to 17-18% (from 15%) ๐ CET1 target lowered to 10-10.5% (from 11%) ๐ Math: Higher returns + lower capital ="
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T11:33Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"36 consecutive months of PPI deflation = factory gate prices falling for X straight years ๐ Easing from -XXX% to -XXX% sounds good but context: This is exactly why ASML warned on China demand today. Weak producer prices = overcapacity + nobody buying. Watch for Beijing stimulus timing. If they move = sentiment shift for $FXI $ASHR $MCHI. If silence = deflation spiral continues โ Trade: China materials/industrials compressed. Either massive policy response incoming or avoid entirely ๐ฏ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T07:08Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"JUST IN: $GOOGL Waymo launching London robotaxis in 2026 first European expansion ๐ Key facts: - Testing starts now with safety drivers fully autonomous service 2026 (pending UK approval) โ
- Jaguar I-Pace EVs via fleet partner Moove ๐ - Current scale: X US cities 250k+ paid rides/week 100M autonomous miles driven ๐ Why it matters: London = validation of tech in dense complex urban environment (narrow streets left-hand driving unpredictable weather) ๐ง If Waymo succeeds here scales across Europe ๐ Competition: Wayve (UK startup backed by $MSFT $NVDA) also launching 2026. But Waymo has"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T15:10Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"3 things Wall Street is missing about $JNJ ๐ Everyone's obsessing over STELARA cliff. Missing the real alpha: X CARVYKTI Manufacturing Unlock ๐งฌ Q3 growth: +54% Status: SUPPLY-CONSTRAINED New facility launching 2026E: 5x current capacity Current run-rate: $1.6B Peak potential: $5-7B Hidden upside: +$3-4B NOT in consensus Plus: 2nd-line approval 2026 = TAM expansion X VARIPULSE = MedTech Sleeper โก Tech advantage: โ Pulsed field ablation (vs old thermal) โ 30-45 min procedures (vs 2-3 hours) โ Safer no injury risk Market opportunity: $10B+ TAM $2-3B franchise potential by 2027E Market sleeping"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T18:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"$JNJ Q3 earnings tomorrow morningtrading $XXXXXX near 52W high ($192.10) ๐ฏ Market expects: $XXXX EPS (+15%) $23.74B revenue What they must deliver: X Oncology saves the day - DARZALEX/CARVYKTI/TREMFYA doing 20-30%+ growth - Need to offset STELARA biosimilar cliff (-1170bps impact) X MedTech China story - VBP + anti-corruption = ongoing headwind - H2 acceleration narrative critical (Abiomed/Shockwave contributing) X Guidance confidence - Tariffs ($400M cost baked in) - Part D redesign impact - 2025 outlook reaffirm or raise ๐จ Elephant in room: Talc litigation - LA jury hit them with $966M"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T17:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Download the full 21-page $NU analysis here (100% FREE): No paywall. Just analysis. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T13:30Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"JUST IN: $BAC Q3 Earnings ๐ Q3 Results vs Estimates: โ
EPS: $XXXX vs $XXXX exp (+12% beat) โ
Revenue: $28.24B vs $27.5B exp โ
Net Interest Income: $15.23B vs $15.03B exp โ
Trading Revenue: $5.35B vs $5.01B exp (+7% beat) โ
Investment Banking: $2.0B (+43% YoY) Net income up XX% YoY to $8.5B. This is the template for what banks should look like in this cycle ๐ฐ The story: Capital markets driving upside. Trading beat + IB fees surge = institutional activity accelerating. NII growth (+9% YoY) shows rate positioning working despite flat curve pressures ๐ Context: $JPM $GS $C $WFC all beat this"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T12:15Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"Just finished my deep-dive into $JNJ Q3 earnings + strategic roadmap ๐ Upgrading to BUY ๐ฏ Current: $XXXXXX Target: $XXX ๐ +13.5% total return. Here's why ๐ ๐ Q3 BEAT Revenue: +5.2% organic (beat guide) โ
Op Margin: XXXX% (+220bps YoY) โ
Guidance: Raised โ
๐ POST-KENVUE TRANSFORMATION Since spinoff: Growth: +1.6% +5.2% ๐ Margin: XXXX% XXXX% ๐ฐ ๐ GROWTH DRIVERS DARZALEX: +21% TREMFYA: +34% CARVYKTI: +54% โ "But STELARA cliff" My model: Growth drivers +$15B vs STELARA -$5B NET: +$10B despite the cliff โ
๐ฏ VALUATION DCF: $XXX Multiples: $XXX Fair Value: $XXX Upside: +13.5% ๐ฐ ๐ก WHY"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T17:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"This is why "cash is trash" for long-term wealth ๐ Inflation destroys XXXX% of purchasing power over XX years Meanwhile equities preserve AND grow wealth Takeaway: Stay invested in quality assets $SPY $VOO for passive exposure $GLD for inflation hedge allocation Time in market timing the market"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T14:43Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"JUST IN: $WFC Q3 results ๐ฐ โ
Revenue $21.44B (beat $21.16B) โ NII $11.95B (slight miss) โ
IB fees $840M (ahead) โ
โ
Credit losses $681M vs $1.17B est (huge beat) โ
Efficiency XX% (maintained) Credit provision -XX% below expectations = asset quality strong Deposit margin pressure continues but manageable"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T10:57Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"5.4B bookings beat estimates but here's the math that matters: China = XX% of ASML sales yet management says 2026 won't drop below 2025 ๐ Translation: AI demand from $TSM $INTC needs to offset an entire region. 3.6B of Q3 bookings was EUV (high-margin AI-driven). Watch Q4 guide execution: 9.2-9.8B. If they hit mid-point = China fade priced AI thesis intact ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T06:57Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$1211.HK (BYD) EU sales surge & leadership vs $TSLA (portfolio update) ๐๐ Aug EU sales X YoY; +201.3% Y/Y XXX% EU share (per ACEA). 2nd month in a row ahead of $TSLA (Tesla XXXX% Y/Y share XXX% vs X% last year). Market backdrop: EU+UK+EFTA +4.7% to 0.8M units; EU-only +5.3%. Incumbents: $STLA +2.2% $VOW3 +4.8% Renault +7.8%. China brands gaining: SAIC/MG +59.4%; YTD EU share XXX% (top-10). Why it matters: BYDs export ramp is translating into share gains in Europe not just shipments. Narrative momentum vs. $TSLA strengthens. Watch next: pricing vs. tariffs local assembly footprints and EU"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-25T13:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"JUST IN: $JNJ Q3 beats + orthopaedics spin-off ๐ โ
Adj EPS: $XXXX (vs $XXXX YoY) +16% โ
Sales: $23.99B (beat $23.74B est) โ
MedTech: $8.43B (+6.8% Y/Y) โ
Guidance raised: $10.80-$10.90 EPS โ
Sales guidance: $93.5-$93.9B Strategic shift: Spinning off orthopaedics Focus on high-growth pharma + MedTech Darzalex ($3.67B) + Stelara ($1.57B) delivering"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T10:59Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Market close: Rotation into financials continues semis mixed ๐ Mega moves today: $AMD +9.25% ๐ (biggest winner AI optimism) $BAC +4.4% ๐ฐ (post-earnings surge) $WFC +2.19% $JPM +1.36% (banks leading) Mag X divergence: โ
Green: $GOOG +1.88% $META +1.04% $TSLA +1.12% โ Red: $AMZN -XXXX% $MSFT -XXXX% $NFLX -XXXX% โช Flat: $NVDA -XXXX% $AAPL +0.68% Other notables: $AVGO +2.04% (semi strength continues) $WMT +1.61% $COST +0.91% (consumer discretionary holding) $LLY +1.80% (healthcare resilient) Pattern: Money rotating from mega cap tech financials + broadening into value. Banks crushing earnings"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T20:00Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"@unusual_whales Translation for traders: if your customer base is sub-$175K household income margins are getting compressed. Look at companies pricing power: those who can't raise prices without losing volume are the shorts. Premium brands with inelastic demand are longs"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T12:59Z XXX followers, 4514 engagements
"Goldman Sachs just dropped AI capex forecasts and the numbers are insane ๐งต Hyperscalers ($MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $ORCL): - 2022-2024: $485B spent - 2025-2027: $1.4T projected (3x increase) That's not a typo. $XXX TRILLION in X years. Here's the problem nobody's talking about: At 6-7% cost of capital that $1.4T needs $100B in returns EVERY YEAR just to break even. That's a whole $AAPL worth of profit. just to justify X years of spending. Meanwhile GS notes commodity/old economy capex DOWN since 2014. AI is sucking all available capital. This either works spectacularly or becomes the biggest"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T18:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$JPM $GS both beat but dig deeper ๐ JPM GAAP EPS +91% vs Adjusted +16% = accounting magic Real story: Markets revenue $8.9B (+25% YoY) carrying the show - Fixed Income +21% Equity +33% = trading desk feast - NII ex Markets FLAT despite loans up X% Meanwhile: $8B buybacks in ONE quarter CET1 down to XXXX% = returning capital aggressively Banks are traders now not lenders"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:02Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$CON.DE New Continental after Aumovio: tires-led cash machine ๐๐ธ - 9/18: auto-parts unit spun out as Aumovio; remaining biz = Continental Tires + ContiTech (planned sale in 2026) - Value now Tires: of revenue from aftermarket less cyclical better pricing - Capex slightly D&A; disciplined portfolio = top-tier margins/asset efficiency vs larger peers - Street fair value 78; classification no-moat; long-run FCF margin X% - Capital returns: dividend at top of 4060% payout band; optionality for specials/buybacks post-ContiTech Why it matters: re-rating case shifts from auto supplier cycle to a"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-25T13:47Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"JUST IN: $AAPL launches M5 chip lineup: MacBook Pro ($1599+) iPad Pro 11" ($999) Vision Pro ($3499) ๐ป Pre-orders open now MacBook ships Oct XX. Wall Street angle: Premium pricing intact despite macro headwinds. $AAPL maintaining margins while pushing performance envelope with M5 = Services + Hardware flywheel working. Vision Pro at $3499 (vs $3499 launch) = no price cut strategy. Cook betting on enterprise adoption over consumer price sensitivity. Timing matters: Launches ahead of holiday quarter + earnings (Oct 31). Sets up strong guidance if demand holds. Watch gross margin trajectory. If"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T14:44Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"JUST IN: Big banks report blowout earnings but CEOs warn of bubble risk ๐โ The paradox: $JPM $GS $C all crushed Q3 estimates driven by IB/trading revival (+12%+ across board). Yet executives simultaneously cautioning about "valuation frothiness" and assets "entering bubble territory." Jamie Dimon: "We have a lot of assets which look like they're entering bubble territory. That doesn't mean they don't have XX% to go. It's just one more cause of concern." ๐ฐ Jane Fraser (Citi): "There are pockets of valuation frothiness in the market so I hope discipline remains." The tension: Banks printing"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T12:27Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"TRADE ALERT $CON (Continental AG) ๐ Bought XXX @ XXXXX (23 Sep 2025) Thesis Post-spin setup: After the Aumovio spin-off $CON is essentially a tyre pure-playsimpler higher-margin cash-generative replacement mix; lower-margin auto systems carved out. ๐ง Technical mispricing: Spin distribution + index/flow effects pressured both legs; room for re-rating as investors re-underwrite the cleaner story and the board outlines a higher payout policy. ๐โก๐ Portfolio action: Ongoing portfolio streamlining (incl. potential ContiTech separation) + clearer balance sheet supports capital returns. ๐งญ Macro"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-23T13:26Z XXX followers, 2656 engagements
"Market Close: Risk-Off Rotation Continues ๐ Semis got hammered again: $NVDA -XXXX% $AVGO -XXXX% $ORCL -XXXX% $MU -XXXX% Tariff overhang still dominant narrative. Sector bleeding despite Greer's "work through it" comments ๐ Mega cap tech mixed but mostly red: $AMZN -XXXX% $TSLA -XXXX% $META -XXXX% $AAPL -XXXX% $GOOG +0.11% (only green FAANG) Financials weak: $JPM -XXXX% Credit services (+1.10%) outperforming banks Flight to safety = consumer staples: $WMT +4.58% ๐ฅ $COST +0.92% $KO +0.83% $PG +0.77% Market pricing recession scenario OR margin relief from lower input costs. Probably both ๐ฐ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T20:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$WFC: Do the capital return math ๐งฎ Beat by $0.11/share 3.2B shares = $350M+ quarterly upside $6.1B buybacks in Q3 alone (6% of shares retired YoY) CET1 dropping from XX% 10-10.5% range = another $6-8B for buybacks At $1.66/share run-rate that's 8-9% earnings yield All going back to shareholders. That's the story"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:27Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"PORTFOLIO UPDATE ๐ YTD RESULTS 2025 TomAlpha: +78.3% ๐ S&P 500: +15.1% ACWI: +19.4% SINCE INCEPTION 04/2021 TomAlpha: +441.7% ๐ฅ S&P 500: +63.3% ACWI: +42.6% MY POSITIONS (by portfolio share) XX% iShares Gold Trust $IAU ๐ช XX% Evolution AB $EVVTY XX% BYD (H-shares) $BYDDY XX% Wizz Air $WIZZ X% PayPal $PYPL X% Hugo Boss $BOSSY X% Continental $CTTAY X% Euronet Worldwide $EEFT X% $KSPI X% Porsche AG $DRPRY X% Halliburton $HAL X% Bayer $BAYRY X% Ping An $PNGAY X% Volkswagen $VWAGY X% CVS Health $CVS X% Aumovio SE $AMV0"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T13:20Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"๐จ INSIDER SELLING WAVE - Oct 9th Notable dumps TODAY: $LLY - Lilly Endowment: $86M sale (10% owner) $SNX - Dennis Polk (Officer): $2.7M sale $KVYO - CEO Andrew Bialecki: $4M sale $AGX - Officer: $1.2M sale vs. $ZBIO - Director Lu Hongbo: $5M BUY โ
When C-suite sells en masse on the same day I pay attention.Either tax planning season or they know something we don't. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T20:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"JUST IN: $MS Q3 Earnings - MASSIVE BEAT ๐ Q3 Results vs Estimates: โ
EPS: $XXXX vs $XXXX exp (+33% beat - largest in X years) โ
Revenue: $18.22B vs $16.70B exp โ
Investment Banking: $2.11B vs $1.68B exp (+44% YoY) โ
Equities Trading: $4.12B vs $3.41B exp (+21% beat) โ
Wealth Management: $8.23B vs $7.78B exp Net income up XX% YoY to $4.61B. This is what happens when all cylinders fire simultaneously ๐ฐ The story: Institutional Securities on fire. Equities trading crushed estimates by $720M = volatility + client activity exploding. IB fees +44% confirms M&A/IPO renaissance isn't slowing ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T12:17Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"36th straight month of PPI deflation = X years of factory gate price declines ๐ Yes improvement from -XXX% to -XXX% but context matters: This validates ASML's China warning today. Weak producer prices = overcapacity + soft demand. Trade implication: China deflation pressure on $FXI materials/industrials. Watch for stimulus announcement timing. If Beijing acts = sentiment shift ๐ฏ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T07:07Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$833B per month = entire $NVDA market cap added every X months ๐ช This isn't just gold rallying. This is global wealth reallocation: - Sovereign wealth funds: XX% gold allocation (up from XX% in 2020) - Central banks: 700+ tons YTD vs XXX historical avg - Family offices: Adding 5-10% gold sleeves to 60/40 portfolios When the world's largest pools of capital shift 5-10% into one asset. That's $10T+ flow potential. We're only halfway through this rotation ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T16:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Market Close: Tech absolutely ripped ๐ฅ $AVGO +10.04% (AI infrastructure beast) ๐ $ORCL +5.67% $TSLA +5.06% $GOOG +3.14% $NVDA +2.53% Mag X carrying the market again. Some things never change ๐ช"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T20:04Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Just published my full 21-page investment research report on $NU Holdings ๐ FREE download no paywall Key findings: ๐ Target: $XX (+46% from $15.08) ๐ฐ ROE: XX% (2x Brazilian banks) ๐ Net Margin: XX% (8x industry average) ๐ฆ Balance Sheet: $10.6B net cash XX% LDR Three catalysts with PROVEN Q2 data: X Mexico Profitability Inflection - 8.9M customers (+191% YoY) - Q4'26 breakeven 2027 adds +$0.04-0.06 EPS X Hyperplane AI Deployment - Q2'25: +100bps market share gain in ONE quarter - ARPAC acceleration XX% XX% CAGR projected X INSS Secured Loan Recovery - $4.1B portfolio (+200% YoY growth) -"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T13:30Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"WALL STREET IS COMPLETELY WRONG ABOUT $PYPL ๐ฏ Here's what they're missing: ๐ฅ Transaction margins accelerating to +8% ๐ New checkout product showing XX% conversion uplift ๐ฐ Venmo monetization ramping (+20% revenue) ๐ช Still 400M users with network effects ๐ Trading at XX% discount to card networks I spent 15+ hours uncovering the real story ๐ My 20-page forensic analysis ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"2Y Upside Top X from my portfolio ๐๐งญ $EEFT +88% (87.91 165) $1211.HK +80% (108.2 195) $VOW3 +72% (93.26 160) $KSPI +58% (84.38 133) $WIZZ +58% (1200 1890) Why it matters: positioning leans into idiosyncratic catalysts (rails/fintech China autos EU mobility). Watch: execution vs. targets margins and rates/liquidity backdrop. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-25T13:30Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$JPM Q3 tells you everything about markets right now ๐ Trading desk printing money (+25% YoY) IB fees recovering (+14% YoY to $2.7B) But credit team building reserves faster = caution brewing Dimon getting paid on volatility while hedging the downside This is peak "make hay while sun shines" mode"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:24Z XXX followers, XX engagements
"China & EM Share-Gain Engines (12Y Upside from my portfolio) ๐โ - $1211.HK (BYD) +83% (106.5 195) export ramp + vertical integration; EU share gains. Watch: tariffs local assembly footprints. (11% of my ptf) - $2318.HK (Ping An) +35% (48.14 65) insurance + fintech ecosystem; capital discipline. Watch: policy backdrop investment yield. (3%) - $KSPI +58% (84.0 133) EM super-app (payments/credit/commerce) with high ROE; cross-sell lifts ARPU. Watch: credit quality regulation. (4%) Why this sleeve: compounding platforms with share-gain + re-rating potential over 1224 months"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-09-28T17:34Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Down X% on tariff overhang. Trump's XXX% China tariffs (Nov X start) + rare earth export controls = whole sector risk-off mode ๐ Catalyst tomorrow: $TSM earnings pre-market. Strong guidance = relief rally potential. Weak print = semis capitulate below key supports. Trade the reaction: $XXX NVDA support critical. Break = $XXX next. Hold = dead cat bounce into macro uncertainty โ "
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T15:15Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@Investingcom $GLD breaking $4070 = flight to safety accelerating. With global uncertainty Fed rate cuts expected and central bank buying this could run to $4200-4300. Gold miners $GDX $GDXJ offer 2-3x leverage to spot price. Momentum trade intact. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T08:26Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Agreed on $MELI ๐ฏWhile you're watching Argentina I just loaded $KSPI - playing the same EM fintech thesis in Central Asia: 7x P/E vs MELI 60x XX% margins XX% population penetration Expanding to Turkey (85M people) Currency stabilization digital payments explosionSame playbook earlier innings ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-09T19:35Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Race for data moat not profit ๐ $GOOGL's Waymo burns $1.25B/quarter vs $373M revenue. London move pre-empts Wayve (UK startup backed by SoftBank/Microsoft launching 2026). 100M autonomous miles = competitive edge. But UK's Automated Vehicles Act doesn't finalize until H2 2027. Lock in partnerships now monetize later strategy ๐ฐ"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T19:20Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Consistent with $MS 2025 outlookthey expect phased tariff approach not abrupt severance Key context: China redirected exports during 2018 trade war (total volumes stayed flat despite US decline) Full decoupling = too costly for both sides. De-risking Yes. Divorce Unlikely"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T18:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@nataninvesting Shareholder-focused management in action ๐ช -XXXX% YoY share count (your slice of earnings grows) $6B program = X% of market cap over XX months At 12.9x P/E = exceptional ROI on buybacks Part of my 3-pillar thesis to $XXX (+43% upside) Full analysis:"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T20:34Z XXX followers, 4804 engagements
"@KobeissiLetter $CCJ $NXE - Uranium play on nuclear renaissance Physical supply deficit + AI data centers = structural bull case Sprott uranium trust absorbing float ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T13:36Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"@KobeissiLetter $XPD squeeze: SA curtailments + uncertain Russian flows + big short base = sharp rip. Near-term tightness but medium-term headwinds (EV adoption Pt substitution). Watch Pd/Pt spread and auto build rates. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-08T13:14Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"My Portfolio Performance vs Benchmark ๐ (as of October 13th 2025) TomAlpha: YTD +77.4% 1Y +100.8% 3Y +280.5% Inception +440.7% $SPX: YTD +11.7% 1Y +12.7% 3Y +78.4% Inception +58.4% Top Holdings: - Nu Holdings $NU - XX% - iShares Gold Trust $IAU - XX% - BYD Company $BYD - XX% - Evolution AB $EVO - XX% - Wizz Air $WIZZ - X% - Euronet Worldwide $EEFT - X% - $KSPI - X% - PayPal $PYPL - X% - Hugo Boss $BOSS - X% - Continental AG $CON - X% Risk Management: XX% portfolio hedged with $SPY/$SPLG put options. Friday's Trump tariff crash ($SPX -2.7%) generated $1500 profit on hedges while maintaining"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:48Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Trump threatens China tariffs tech bleeds $NVDA -XXXX% $AVGO -XXXX% $ORCL -XXXX% $TSLA -XXXX% Meanwhile: $WFC +3.43% $V +1.40% Tariff risk separates real China exposure from everything else Watch what bleeds vs what shrugs it off ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T14:19Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"CHINA JUST PLAYED THEIR TRUMP CARD - LITERALLY ๐ฏ The Setup โ: Yesterday: China expands rare earth export controls (5 new minerals) Today: Trump cancels Xi meeting threatens "massive" new tariffs Markets: Instant selloff across tech ๐ What's Really Happening Here ๐ง : This isn't random. China KNEW this would trigger Trump. They did it anyway right before the APEC summit. Why ๐ญ Because Rare Earths = Nuclear Option โข: - China controls 90%+ global supply ๐ - Used in semiconductors EVs defense phones ๐ป๐โ๐ฑ - No viable alternative supply exists at scale - Processing takes YEARS to build"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-10T17:05Z XXX followers, 1461 engagements
"JUST IN: $ASML Q3 Earnings ๐ Q3 Results vs Estimates: โ
Bookings: 5.4B vs 5.36B exp (slight beat) โ
Net Income: 2.13B vs 2.07B exp โ
Revenue: 7.5B (mid-range of 7.4-7.9B guide) โ
Gross Margin: XXXX% (upper end of 50-52% guide) The AI story: 3.6B of bookings = EUV systems for advanced chips. OpenAI alone locked $1T+ in datacenter deals driving litho demand ๐ฐ The China problem: 2026 expects "significant demand drop" from market that's XX% of sales. $ASML +25% YTD = market betting AI growth China fade ๐ Key tension: Targeting 60B revenue by 2030 (vs 28.3B in 2024) = doubling in X years. Math"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T07:13Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Today's S&P 500: Tech & Financials lead the rally Top performers: ๐ข Semiconductors: $AVGO +6.7% $NVDA +2.5% ๐ข Software: $ORCL +3.3% $CRM +0.9% ๐ข Banks: $JPM +2.5% $C +2.1% Defensive sectors lagging Mixed signal for broader market"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-13T13:53Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"Pre-market tech rally led by semis after $ASML crushes Q3 ๐ Key numbers: 5.4B bookings with 3.6B in EUV alone (vs 2.3B Q2). That's +57% QoQ in cutting-edge lithography demand. AI infrastructure capex is accelerating not slowing. ๐ $NVDA +2.84% $AVGO +2.40% $AMD +2.53% leading. Mega caps all green pre-market. ASML Q4 guide: 9.2-9.8B (massive sequential jump from 7.5B Q3). Full-year growth 15%. Trade implication: Equipment orders lead chip production 6-9 months out. EUV surge = validation of AI chip demand through mid-2026. Semi names breaking out = buy signal for infrastructure trade. ๐"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-15T13:21Z XXX followers, XXX engagements
"$JNJ guidance raise is margin story ๐ Sales up 30bps BUT maintaining X% EPS growth = margin expansion Innovative Medicine adj segment margin XXXX% (was 37.9%) That's +640bps YoY XX brands double-digit growth offsetting Stelara cliff Free cash flow $14B run rate funds everything"
X Link @TomAlphaTrades 2025-10-14T12:01Z XXX followers, XXX engagements