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@XennialTrader "For the second time today I'm opening a long NQ/YM spread. The setup: * A new ATH breakout in the Dow on lower-than-desirable volume (9th lowest in XX days) closing in the middle. * Two days of bumping against the ATH in the Naz. The idea is that as it has done before on breakouts the Dow may at least trade sideways if not pull back in the short term (1-3 days). Meanwhile the Nasdaq has built up some energy for an upcoming breakout so if it does get sufficient buying flows it's likely to be relatively stronger. I'm not loving a pure long #NQ_F / $QQQ play partially because the weekly profile"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-21T20:41Z 1074 followers, XXX engagements

"I just closed this long NQ/YM spread at a reference price of about #NQ_F 25320 vs #YM_F 47170. That's +85 NQ points and -XXX YM points (50 points * 2) per unit. So the hedge cost was 30%. On the chart the 1st set of arrows is the Tuesday intraday trade 2nd set of arrows is the one outlined here. "But if only you didn't have the short YM leg on you'd have XX% more profit" Yes but that's the point of a spread. You have to take the good with the bad. YM was a small drag on the profit when it worked but when NQ was XX points underwater the hedge leg reduced that by about 75%. That allowed me to"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-22T04:47Z 1074 followers, XXX engagements

"Let's talk about gaps since we had one today. Let's define a gap: it's the difference between the prior day's high (for a gap up) or low (for a gap down) and the opening price the following day (at 9:30am ET for equities). We're not calling a simple up/down (green/red) open a "gap" because almost every day opens at least slightly higher or lower. We are talking about days where the open is completely outside the prior day's range. I'll make another post this weekend about what gaps really represent. For now I've annotated key gaps in the S&P since the April lows. There are X open gaps"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-24T21:13Z 1074 followers, 6056 engagements

"Gap Stats Part X -- Double Gap Edition Well we did it. Back-to-back gaps marking only the 22nd time it's happened in XX years. Let's look at the table. $SPY data is used. The first X columns show the (1) number of elapsed bars (trading days) between the formation of the upper gap and the day that gap was filled and (2) the max amount that SPY increased in that period of time prior to coming back to fill the gap. Similarly the next X columns show (1) the number of elapsed bars between the upper gap fill and the lower gap fill and (2) the max percent that SPY increased after that upper gap"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-27T21:23Z 1071 followers, 14.7K engagements

"It's FOMC time. Doubling tick increments on #NQ_F #ES_F and #YM_F. Interesting ES levels for me are 6900 (Tuesday low and Monday afternoon buying surge) and 6866 (Sunday night low). In particular a 6866 test would allow for the upper gap (of the two unfilled) to be tested and traded into without filling it completely and give buyers a real test. Maybe we don't glitch lower but if we do I'll be focused on those. $SPY $QQQ $DIA #NQ_F #ES_F #YM_F $SPX"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-29T17:58Z 1074 followers, 1892 engagements

"Incredibly nasty day in the indexes today. #YM_F pure open drive and trend up #NQ_F and #ES_F just nasty. +1.1% off the open in YM vs -XXX% in NQ . be sure you know what you really want to trade if you want to trade this. $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPX"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-30T15:01Z 1074 followers, XXX engagements

"$AMZN last X earnings beats vs consensus: XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% 26%. Now knowing this as an analyst if you used the same method to estimate prior earnings how would you get it closer to being spot on Well the easiest way would be to use your old method and blindly bump it by about XX% if you didn't want to try to address the core flaw in your estimation methodology. $AAPL similar story. Last X beats were in the X% to X% range. What do you think the beat will be this time Out of the last XX reports only X of them have been misses. It's statistically impossible to be on the wrong side of a"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-30T20:39Z 1074 followers, XXX engagements

"@MrMBrown Yes I know but I guess what surprises me is that there's not a market for an analyst who will provide an actual accurate estimate. XX% is a huge margin of error but apparently it's done every quarter and by everyone (or at least enough to be a consensus estimate)"
X Link @XennialTrader 2025-10-30T20:43Z 1074 followers, XX engagements