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@CedarStResearch Avatar @CedarStResearch Cedar Street Research

Cedar Street Research appears to be involved in discussions about insurance companies, particularly regarding their financials, growth strategies, and use of technology. Analysts and investors are scrutinizing companies like $PGR, $ROOT, and $LMND, examining their profitability, capital allocation, and risk management. The focus is on understanding their business models, growth prospects, and potential challenges, such as credit expenses and regulatory issues.

Engagements: XXXXXX #

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Mentions: XX #

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Followers: XXXXX #

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Social category influence stocks XXXX% finance XXXX% cryptocurrencies #6703 technology brands XXXX% countries XXXX% currencies XXXX% celebrities XXXX%

Social topic influence insurance #187, $pgr #5, $wrb #1, $erie #1, $ori #5, $lmnd #92, $ffhto #7, $goog #13, $root #9, $cb #4

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @djebitda @andycyau @ironicape @bjmtweets @nicklamparelli @realjimchanos @billackman @actaccordingly @kabraxfx @paperbaginvest @elonmusk @creativecap89 @dj_ebitda @yep2498 @chamath @brentericson @hindenburgres @blondesnmoney @floodquake @4thshitposting

Top assets mentioned Progressive Corp (PGR) W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE) Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) The Root Network (ROOT) Cheeseball (CB) Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG) Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Neenah, Inc. Common Stock (NP) Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Ryan Specialty Group, Inc. (RYAN) TrustVerse (TRV) Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Elevance Health Inc (ELV) Brookfield Corporation (BN) Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Neurobro (BRO) Ares Protocol (ARES) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Blackstone, Inc. (BX) Alliance Fan Token (ALL) Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) RLI Corp. (RLI) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Raiden Network Token (RDN)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"If you invest in insurance and want to understand how the NAIC is formulating regulation around AI in insurance this is worth a read. NAIC Bulletin will be in thread below. $LMND $ROOT $HIPO"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T14:37Z 2308 followers, 3442 engagements

"Lived in SF from 2014-2018 awesome experience very cool place but its also a complete shit hole in many parts. New Montgomery Civic Center and Lower Haight are literal war zones"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T18:43Z 2294 followers, XXX engagements

"@seaurchincevice @MisterAccord Not a panican lol I was abundantly clear that my trade was only a TBV trade on the close of AAC. I own all growth tech and I use insurance as a hedge. I only own the best of the best $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO $CB $BRK $HIG $BN short $ERIE and long a couple PMI names"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T13:56Z 2300 followers, XXX engagements

"Its pretty dumb we are holding up the budget deficit talks with the ACA tax credits which is peanuts in the scheme of things. Both parties Democrats and Republicans spend money like its water on so many other programs and theres plenty they can cut that dwarf the ACA tax credits. Per my very rough research the tax credits were less than $10B last year. 20m recipients with a delta of an annual premium of $1600 less the subsidiary to about $XXX. You could hit $UNH with a fine for that amount but its all politics. Are politicians getting dumber every year"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T01:56Z 2292 followers, 1386 engagements

"Just a thought but if $ROOT does have a negative print in Q3 we probably havent seen the bottom. LTM EPS is $XXXX negative print maybe puts it down to $4.50-5.00 pure guess and not much science to it. Unfortunately at the mercy of the market and if folks hold the multiple where its at because well maybe the analyst community gets a little nervous on the forward projections they have then you could possibly see $XX a share at $XXXX LTM EPS. Conversely a positive print and the forward projections should increase but Timm was pretty clear he anticipates earnings compression in the near term"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T17:59Z 2205 followers, 1708 engagements

"Personal insurance holds are $WRB $ORI $FFH.TO $BRK $CB $PGR $COFA.PA $HIG as my preferred compounders right now and special situations $AMBC $SKWD for reasons Ive stated in the past. I dont own $HG but I like their quant strategy versus the traditional hedge fund / private investment strategy that failed carriers like $SPNT and $GLRE in the past. Have some exposure to PMI as well"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-29T02:58Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"They really just started turning a profit a few quarters ago / booking some retained earnings. Stock was always trading at 1-2x GWP while it was unprofitable so the price to book might look a little out of whack in that regard. On a PE it's LTM is around 16x hard to say confidently say what the forward multiple is right now with the outlook they provided last quarter"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T18:40Z 2306 followers, XX engagements

"App Store - Finance Top Apps $PGR $LMND $ROOT $PGR #7 and State Farm surprisingly #14 dont hold a legacy fart down XX second world record Im told Insurtech in the nose bleeds"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T11:41Z 2290 followers, 2009 engagements

"Bought some $PGR below $XXX just seems like the sell off was a little headline driven"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T14:33Z 2308 followers, 2059 engagements

"Where all the selling is happening"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T13:13Z 2305 followers, 1288 engagements

"Im not up to speed on this at all but safe to assume $HOOD cleaned out some folks pretty good with margin calls Friday Citadel strikes again"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T21:19Z 2293 followers, 1553 engagements

"Pretty wild you can buy $GOOG for 13.6x 2025 EV/EBITDA or $AJG for 13.7x and $BRO for 15.3x. I will keep loading up on Google as long as that continues to track"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-20T16:49Z 2293 followers, 3346 engagements

"Friday's are nice when a lot of names are performing. $ERIE catching that sweet sweet free ride. $ORI $WRB $CB $FFH.TO and so on"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T15:09Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"$ROOT is now sold off even more than $PGR. Wild day so far Can't imagine $ROOT would have the same credit problem as they weren't even profitable for those years"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T18:31Z 2307 followers, 5068 engagements

"Happy for the $NP community great company. I was willing to buy $NP at anything below $1.75B obviously that valuation never even came close to fruition. That was 20x FY Adj EBITDA 2025 which I had pegged at $93.3m. $NP is now trading at 45x that Adj EBITDA. Anyone notice that their market cap is $4.2B and the entire Flood insurance market is $5B Let that sink in for a second lol $NP can't write XXX% of the market since +50% of the policies in-force are in high hazard flood zones that are uninsurable. Do I think $NP is a fantastic company (Yes) do I think this valuation is completely nuts"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T17:54Z 2306 followers, 1345 engagements

"Just took a look through $OKLO Q2 investor presentation. The deck reads like a VC pitch deck that is looking for a Series A round. They dont have the licensing lined up they dont have a reactor built they dont even talk about the reactor design at all I doubt they have enough access to uranium. They spend most of it talking about regulatory changes giga watt advantages over more traditional power sources etc Short answer is we dont really have enough power to feed the compute demand. It will be interesting if this pushes real funding to fusion projects that have really been at this stage more"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T13:39Z 2308 followers, 2053 engagements

"When you consolidate $ERIE earnings between the public entity and the private insurance companies the LTM PE is 37x (you can own $GOOG for 26x right now - growing faster and highly profitable) and when you strip out the realized gains on investments that boosted statutory earnings you will see the pre-tax operating income LTM PE Multiple well it's very high at 121x"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T21:33Z 2304 followers, 2489 engagements

"Took a hard look at $AGL over the weekend. As much as I would love to buy a stock at $XXXX when it's trading at XX% of revenue I'm going to hold off for now. I do not think there are any fundamentals that are moving the stock other than pure speculation right now. The CMS controls rate increases and decreases for Medicare Advantage providers and $AGL charges their customers via fixed premiums per customer through their value based care contracts that is subject to the rate limitations of the CMS. CMA approved a +5.6% rate change for 2026 everything I'm reading says this is barely keeping pace"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-25T14:34Z 2306 followers, 1214 engagements

"Spent a good chunk of my afternoon brushing up on life insurers NAIC investment model act RBC/BCAR methodologies/guidelines and statutory vs BDA/CYM accounting treatments. There are much more fun things to do in life I can assure you That being said these companies run incredibly complex operations $ARES $APO $BX. You should probably only own them as a hedge not sure if anyone truly fully understand all that they do. If you do god bless"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T10:52Z 2304 followers, 1105 engagements

"Everything about $RYAN screams frothy valuation"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-11T15:40Z 2254 followers, 1601 engagements

"Nice move by Radian $RDN a step in the right direction to becoming more like $ACGL simply meaning a diversified P&C / PMI carrier rather than a monoline PMI carrier. Didnt overpay 1.5x book and around 7.7x 2025e pre-tax operating income or closer to 10x earnings. Well played boys. Simple highlight this was well executed"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-18T13:38Z 2305 followers, 1103 engagements

"@realroseceline Yeah I don't disagree one of those put your blinders on and just focus on the business type of markets for them. Not a fan of their XOL reinsurance structure but I'm a broken record on that topic"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T17:29Z 2287 followers, XXX engagements

"Received a note from a friend not something Im very familiar with but updated JD Power customer satisfaction ratings on Renters. Trying to dig up the recent auto one as well. $ERIE $TRV $PGR $ALL $HIG $LMND"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T23:21Z 2293 followers, 1689 engagements

"The top line premium is $92m. So around 50000 vehicles for MM. Plus the strategy is grow and retain less reinsurance. 1-100yrs event would impact it yes. Only need around 1000 vehicles to experience it not all 50000. I'm sorry but your not going to convince me that $20m in surplus is "well capitalized" insurer"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T13:19Z 2300 followers, XXX engagements

"$ROOT policies in force grew from 453k in Q1 to 455k in Q2 and average premium was flat. Average personal auto DWP premium change based on statutory data was +4.5% in Q2 and $PGR did +14.4%. What are we thinking about for Q3 for $ROOT FY 2024 PIF grew +2% with some marginal rate change which was a strong growth year for the market"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T22:03Z 2293 followers, 1384 engagements

"Closed $ERIE bought some more $WRB. Will be adding some excess cash to $GOOG as well"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T17:24Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"Hopefully the print isn't too small this is what I would define as "cash flow underwriting". P&C Combined consistently over XXX% and operating ratio fairly healthy due to net investment income. $CNA produced $XXX billion in underwriting losses and $XXXX billion in net investment income from Q1 2016 to Q1 2025. The business model seems to "work" but why would anyone want to pay a multiple on fixed income yields"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-19T20:57Z 2263 followers, XXX engagements

"2x long ETF for $LMND why am I not surprised Miami finance at it's best"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T14:55Z 2308 followers, 1974 engagements

"$PGR down on an EPS miss but its the weirdest EPS miss. $PGR incurred a $950m credit expense in Florida in their personal lines department because they were too profitable (above statutory limits) and have to credit money back to policyholders as a result. This credit ballooned their expense ratio for the quarter. Excluding this EPS grew +52% and their underlying underwriting results looked phenomenal. Since they filed for rate reductions this is hopefully just a 1x hit to earnings $PGR said they modeled the full credit for profit above stat limit. Call will be interesting most important item"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T12:58Z 2308 followers, 24.9K engagements

"@CreativeCap89 @Stickstrom Are you insinuating Lemonade is going to enter the commercial market As an example $KNSL built their entire stack from the ground up they have something just as efficient as Lemonade. It's a company full of software engineers and there are many other companies built that way"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T16:28Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"@SayNoToTrading Any pull back in $WRB $ORI $CB $FFH.TO I typically reload if I have excess cash on the sidelines. $SKWD I own at $XX so if it goes down much from here I'd potentially reload. My $SKWD trade is really Apollo getting approved by reg's and an EPS boost in early 2026 as a result"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T18:14Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"Another embedded renters solution I remember talking to Alex a long time ago when they were building this product at Boost. Glad its working out. $LMND $PGR $AIZ"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T14:08Z 2271 followers, XXX engagements

"I appreciate your insights but I dont think you understand how commercial or commercial E&S insurance is transacted And how complex tort liability claims are handled XX% of KNSL expense ratio is brokerage commission and taxes license and fees (lemonade cant fix those costs - cost to file a form and taxes). They do not use guidewire or a 3rd party DSL XXX% built in-house. In all honesty I do not see a single merit comparing Lemonade to a commercial insurer"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T23:28Z 2220 followers, XX engagements

"It will be interesting to see where sub-prime consumer credit trends not a space we like right now even with lower interest rates on the horizon. $BFH net loss rate is back at 2008 GFC levels as cited in their SEC Filings (see below) and indicate a prolonged continuation could cause a material adverse impact on the business. I was always trained to aim at super prime and it's never failed me. When XX% of your credit's are sub-prime and XX% of those deep sub-prime it's a difficult environment to navigate. $BFH has lost some large partnership contract's recently (Example: BJ's and Wayfair) and"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-08T14:33Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"Been awhile E&S carriers seem to be having a strong Q3 based on stamp data I reviewed but will look at the whole sector as Ive only really looked at individual companies right now. Definitely way down from its high. $RYAN has a good flywheel in terms of wholesale brokerage MGA platform and some balance sheet risk they take on in a separate reinsurance cell via Bermuda. They buy MGAs on LTM multiples and the stock is priced on a forward multiple so thats an immediate gain plus synergistically they can wholesale accounts into the MGA with synergies analyzed pre-close. Do I think all their MGA"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T15:22Z 2293 followers, XXX engagements

"@Fijji471168 That was my take away from it. I'd be much more bullish on $GOOG cracking fusion than these guys cracking the nuclear market"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T14:36Z 2306 followers, XX engagements

"@andycyau @punderfultweet Love Andy but if AI is half as good as they say embedded isnt a moat. Embedded auto does attract non/standard drivers"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T23:02Z 2307 followers, XXX engagements

"You have to hold a minimum amount on your balance sheet when issuing a securitization. I forget the exact % but it's not much around 5-10% of the gross loan at origination. They sell it to a variety of investors such as $ALLY and Drivetime to name two. Not a company I really follow but had to review their securitization data at one point for work"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:11Z 2205 followers, XX engagements

"I think $ROOT can turn it around from here probably getting nice discount if you think growth is on the horizon. Probably going to see a rise in marketing spend will be interesting to see how efficiently they can manage that with growth / profitability as their net expense ratio is much higher than the industry average at 30.3%. Timm is very smart just not as marketing savvy as $LMND or capital markets savvy but his accounting is also not an adjusted alphabet soup. Its is the age old question would you rather have XX% of a $1B or XX% of $80B As an executive youd pick the later as an investor"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T13:53Z 2295 followers, XXX engagements

"Who knows but my guess is yes over the next 12-18 months IPO likely their FCCR is probably a little elevated due to the large debt raise I think $2.1B going from memory. The brokerages are solid business up and down the rate cycle. A lot successfully are pushing for MGA facilities as it can expand margin a lot"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-17T02:00Z 2307 followers, XX engagements

"I do not understand $ERIE valuation. Trades at 29x LTM EPS and grew X% last quarter. The are not good at underwriting or pricing. They've managed to lose $2.6B of capital of their policyholders funds from 2021 to Q2 2025. They do not buy back stock and their dividend is only 1.5%. Makes my brain hurt"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-02T16:17Z 2304 followers, 2399 engagements

"If $DUOL is an AI play as a white labeled GPT company (#1 token user) than $PGR should change their website to because they are integrating ai throughout the entire platform. Kidding about the website ofcourse"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T14:48Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"Government shutdown* not bailout lol"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T22:01Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"Interesting take on UBI by JD Power $PGR has some work to do. I hear the app is good but in states where the device is statutorily required to be installed in the car due to a variety of items but privacy laws driving the issue its not as user friendly. Nationwide seems to be very well liked by their Insured(s)"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-05T00:07Z 2294 followers, 1215 engagements

"$ELV moving in the right direction up to $XXX at the moment. Snuck in $ELV at $305.55"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T16:15Z 2304 followers, 1974 engagements

"If you want less life insurance exposure and more infrastructure and P&C exposure Id suggest owning $BN instead of $ARES $APO and $BX"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T10:53Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"Sold some $ELV today as well I made a pretty fast +15% on this one. Will be spreading it across $ORI $WRB and $GOOG"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T17:49Z 2308 followers, 1564 engagements

"I'd throw $RNR into a near same quality bucket as $ACGL for the world of Bermuda carriers. Very well run reinsurer highly diversified and doing what I think is currently undervalued or underappreciated as it pertains to the great things they are doing with their ILS sidecar / fee income model"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T21:55Z 2305 followers, 2631 engagements

"$PGR historical statutory underwriting profit (loss)"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T17:32Z 2281 followers, XXX engagements

"@0xAvious @bgurley Right now they are private for a lot longer because no one is willing to mark the fair values down and the auditors play ball. The BDCs are feeling the pain the credit arms will follow if it persist. Its just a cycle not a new thing"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T03:55Z 2305 followers, XX engagements

"$AGL could really do themselves a favor by adding the initials "ai" to the website. Joking of course. The path down seems never ending if they can't get their pricing model to work and shake off that adverse development"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T19:18Z 2292 followers, XXX engagements

"What will be interesting with $OKLO is if it get's totally disrupted by $GOOG through their investment in TAE Technologies. Might have to load up on more $GOOG"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T14:13Z 2307 followers, 1077 engagements

"Management "lets keep our rate flat as loss trend is rising steadily on an 8pt curve at +10% (let's forgo the the much more appropriate 12pt curve trend of +12%) we can hide the long-term impact with short term growth". This is exactly why there is no margin in Pet insurance. Grow at all cost deal with the ramifications later. $LMND $TRUP 1/3"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:04Z 2292 followers, 1544 engagements

"Can't believe $WRB almost nipped $XX today the Japanese buying this thing up with no registered filings"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-30T15:17Z 2304 followers, 2922 engagements

"Closed my $ERIE short today. I still believe in the short but with the large sell off in the insurance sector I wanted to take my gains and put it in some household favorites of mine. Finished +37% on the short. Schwab doesn't do the best job of showing the return once the transaction goes through that or I don't know where to find it on the platform"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T17:16Z 2308 followers, 5099 engagements

"Wonder if @elonmusk placed a wager"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T22:09Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"$ELV path $XXX working much faster than ever anticipated. ACA deal likely - weirdly something so small causing a huge bottleneck in the government shutdown talks. Hard to get votes for your party if you don't approve voters health insurance subsidies"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T14:12Z 2305 followers, 1317 engagements

"A carrier that fly's under the radar $AIZ seems like they might know how to use software for their renters product (see LAE Ratio 3%). X% acquisition cost ratio. $AIZ writes $XXXXX million (net earned premium) in Renters so over $XXX million in GWP. Operating ratio will knock your socks off. $AIZ distribution is focused on partnerships with commercial property managers and focuses on imbedded software solutions. @Nick_Lamparelli"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-10T23:47Z 2271 followers, XXX engagements

"Keep your eyes peeled 🍣 🚊"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T12:22Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"Goal line technology officially removed my federal check that is still enroute from my extension is no longer offsides"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T02:28Z 2291 followers, XXX engagements

"Yeah very weird print they were effectively too profitable in FL. One of the rare usages of profitability cap in the insurance market FL is not alone but not a common occurrence. Credit expense seems to be a one time charge actually bought a little more below $XXX as I "think" it might be a headline driven selloff"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T14:36Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"Anyone who thinks MGA's are profitable for reinsurers should take a second look we will be publishing some Schedule P Data on the various Hybrid Fronting companies that participate in the U.S. Marketplace. We can assure you they are great at making fee income and terrible at producing underwriting profits for their reinsurers. Here's a little taste from $TSU.TO otherwise known as Trisura Group Ltd. Below is nothing but adverse development and horrible accident year loss ratio performance for (1) All Lines (2) Commercial Auto Liability (3) Other Liability - Occurrence and (4) Commercial"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-22T13:40Z 2303 followers, 5864 engagements

"Again you should understand how BCAR works on top of NAIC guidelines. Yes it is definitely a minimum if you understood BCAR. They are retaining more risk going forward so a $50m loss would effectively wipe out that surplus as it's still running above XXX% combined. Wasn't really predicting receivership. The whole point was I personally would never buy insurance from a carrier that has $23m of funds to cover losses. That worse than some of the FL CAT reciprocals exchanges"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T20:48Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"Institutions pushing into consumer discretionary is usually a recession signal. It's just a signal and not always right but a trend retail should probably pay attention to"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T14:30Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"What are some of your favorite banks insurers or SaaS plays and why Insurtech opinions are welcome. Heres a few of my personal favorite medium / long term holds: $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO $GOOG $CRWD $MSFT $TSM $PGR Heres a few interest rate plays: $ACGL $NMIH $ESNT $ACT $KRNY $JPM $MS $LDI $BETR"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-05T13:55Z 2306 followers, 2436 engagements

"$ERIE was perfectly fine for a number of years but the past 4yrs the private companies have been hosed. Unfortunately that trend hasnt reversed and Im told from a lot of insurance agents that they are moving as much as they can to $PGR. Yes I like $PGR I think the threat of FSD is a fair amount of time from now. Very innovative company and integrating AI across their tech stack. $KNSL Ive never owned due to the high PE multiple. Saw it was down a lot today but didnt know why Multiple is compressing to a point where Ill have to revisit it"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-26T01:27Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"Not going to lie this was a very frustrating print to read this morning to say the least. I have $NP at $93m of forward adjusted EBITDA - TTM Q2 2026. A lot of folks don't know this but $NP was purchased for 18x EBITDA on 5/11/23 by FTV Capital (forward EBITDA was 12x). At the time $NP enterprise value was $900m on TTM EBITDA estimated at $50m. So FTV is shooting for a 3.1x MOIC and a gross IRR of XXX% after holding an asset for 2yrs. really If they go forward with the $2.8B estimated cap I see this falling flat on it's face just like $SLDE and $ARX. 30x adjusted EBITDA will not hold. I see"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-22T15:54Z 2305 followers, 5080 engagements

"Ever looked into KI Coalition Next $KNSL $HG or how $HIG $TRV and $CB fully automated small commercial Commercial already uses machine learning in all their actuarial models and it's all getting a fresh shot of whiskey as Palantir is quite literally partnering up with everyone behind the scenes"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T16:05Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"Not good for $AGL that their adverse development increased to $36.6m up from $15.1m last year as they are shrinking revenue and attempting to increase rate. Still has +$400m in equity value keep an eye on rate trends but has around XX months of run rate. They dont have a traditional MLR ratio. But it shot to +100% last Q. Not an immediate bankruptcy risk / the stock is in desperate need of a reverse split. Will take a look at the full Q and earnings call over the weekend. We predicted they were structurally bankrupt a few months ago (broken business model) but if management can execute a few"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-09T11:52Z 2271 followers, 1562 engagements

"@Bonhoeffer_KDS CAT prone earnings swings. Its one of the main reasons I dont own the stock from a pure reinsurer standpoint I just think they make good underwriting decisions"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T22:25Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"Eyes peeled on $NP today. Go time"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T13:29Z 2303 followers, 1236 engagements

"Long-term hold and forget you own it: $ORI $WRB $CB $FFH.TO $BRK SBA compounder: $NBN (LTV / NCO goldmine) Special situation: $AMBC - Oaktree / Everspan Sale $ATLC - Fintiv Lawsuit against $AAPL Cheap Turnaround Stories: $JRVR - 0.5x book (Uber killed them) $UFCS - 0.9x book (solid fixer upper) $AHL - 5x PE (tough past long tail) $AGL - 0.1x sales (high risk turnaround) PMI Resi Mortgage Exposure: $ACT $NMIH $ESNT $AGCL $MTG Ideal Target for a Takeover: $SAFT (1.2x book cheap for personal lines management cant diversify out of MA or raise rates quick enough - lazy dividend stock with solid"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-09T16:48Z 2306 followers, 5141 engagements

"Just scraped CAP IQ quickly here's what I'm seeing on a FY 2025 TEV/EBITDA estimates. Still trading at peak M&A valuations of 16x EBITDAC. $MMC - 15.7x $AON - 16.6x $AJG - 16.3x $WTW - 14.1x $BRO - 14.4x 15.4x average and then what I always love comparing them to: $GOOG - 15.6x I'll personally keep buying $GOOG as long as these TEV/EBITDA figures track. There's been a lot of broker consolidation the past few years guessing a few more as there are some newer entrants that cracked the top XX and are deep into private funding rounds (World Insurance / Acrisure etc.) as examples. If I had to own"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T21:05Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"@partners_road @ActAccordingly A day like today some Q&A would have gone a long way as I'm sure many made decisions on headline news"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T17:56Z 2307 followers, XXX engagements

"The $ERIE slow drip continues. If your long just a caution as institutions have been slowly unloading this thing. Unfortunately there's almost no trading volume so longs are trapped at the moment"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T18:16Z 2236 followers, 1304 engagements

"Im a huge fan of insurtech solutions theres alot going on in the private markets these guys have no clue about. Had management did some more homework they wouldve seen Neptune $NP coming. Small MGA with real operating leverage with near equal cap (admittedly I think the valuation is rich)"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T12:20Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"I agree I view this as a good move for $ROOT @RootInsurance Ill hold off on my application 🧮 but a step in the right direction as Ive pointed out there capital modeling strategy is a bit of a maze"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T13:40Z 2306 followers, 1827 engagements

"Seems like old dogs can learn new tricks. Hard to get more efficient than a software based parametric payout. $CB"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T18:45Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"I'm surprised the analyst community is a slightly trailing the sushi trade going on with $WRB. I'm a big advocate of the potential for cost of capital synergies with this one once it's flushed out"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T14:54Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"LIC is at $200m and MM is at $23m as of June 2025. The ACL is a set formula the NAIC applies to carriers so it can be applied evenly across the industry. You insure 81000 vehicles a bad sneeze and you can kiss it goodbye. It's why BCAR methodology is a layer on top of RBC model. This capital model would probably get a CCC+ rating from AM Best. I don't care if they hold more or less prefer to see insurance carriers succeed. It's just a higher risk model. Personally I wouldn't want to be Insured by a company that holds the absolute minimum"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T19:57Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"I think $ACGL management leaning into Excess Casualty is on to something. A lot of Excess Casaulty is written on Non-Admitted paper. On the admitted data that we could find in SERFF rates (not premium but actual rate) is still positive through 2025 at +9%. Primary casualty is a different story seeing some softening there"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-08T20:58Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"@mariojr66 Sensible underwriting always prevails $ORI and $WRB have always had very level heads in that regard"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-26T10:53Z 2304 followers, XX engagements

"This post had almost nothing to do with lemonade it was how someone in the Lemonade community was talking out of their ass about $PGR growth strategy in the early days. Its more about the fact that someone assumed something with zero due diligence and had they just looked on. $PGR website they wouldve known they were completely wrong about underpricing to gain market share"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-05T09:40Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"My $CVNA securitization spreadsheet is all over X and keeps getting reposted once in a while its fun to see someone post it now. It might be working as the ABS speed is speeding up (no pun intended). Theres no way of knowing when this will end. I work with banks insurers and lenders daily theres amazing things you can do to delay or move losses. What I do know is straight up to the right is good for a stock chart and is not good for a securitization CNL. $CVNA XXX% built a user friendly way to trade used vehicles I just highly doubt they dodged the $KMX and tricolor etc mess that near /"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T23:09Z 2306 followers, 5016 engagements

"As pointed out by a friend and a very interesting dynamic to watch but are $ERIE longs simply trapped in a stock with almost no daily trading volume Seems like this is just a slow grind down to $200-$250 in the meantime. Love that analyst still put weight on the exchanges EPS and a neutral outlook look under the hood at the SERFF data and youll see the insurance portfolios are structurally broken from a premium / loss trend"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-18T13:54Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"Did $PGR say tariff $PGR has the most dynamic pricing strategy and is way ahead of the tariff problem. Management commentary from Q2 analyst call"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T20:52Z 2276 followers, 1000 engagements

"Been a big push I've seen it from both sides of the aisle. They are over promising liquidity and long-term returns in my opinion. I'm fine with a carrier holding some illiquid assets for yield but there's limits to what they can hold. Junk per NAIC Model Act is usually limited to 1-2%. If it's a holding company structure different story"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T18:38Z 2304 followers, XX engagements

"@FelixKern2 I honestly wish them luck. It's capital "light" at it's finest. It's not anyway I'd run a balance sheet"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T19:43Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"@4thShitPosting It's a credit expense so booked after LLAE and hit's the expense ratio"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T13:16Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"Saw a post saying $PGR produced net losses in it's early years to gain market share as a justification for $LMND. I don't really care what $LMND does or doesn't do but it's quite the opposite. That individual clearly has no clue what their rule of XX is and it's been institutionalized in the company since they went into the auto market. 1/2"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T17:31Z 2281 followers, 2657 engagements

"My moves tomorrow $OKLO and $RICK on margin no looking back"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T00:13Z 2308 followers, 1388 engagements

"The sushi trade is real will be interesting to see how Mitsui strategically bids up $WRB overtime as well"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T03:30Z 2305 followers, 1923 engagements

"I would argue after listening to what I would describe as a chilling interview between @TuckerCarlson and @sama that there isnt much of a moral compass in @sama especially after hearing some of the commentary from @elonmusk about his character. My problem is once someone breaks your trust its really hard to believe anything they say going forward. I hope none of these X responded lol"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T21:41Z 2308 followers, 1911 engagements

"I wish the $LMND auto team the best. But I would never buy insurance from an insurance company that has $22.6m of surplus allocated to it"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T19:13Z 2308 followers, 3904 engagements

"$WRB approved rate changes 2025 YTD. Mid single digit weighted return similar to what we saw with $ORI. Most of these rate filings don't go into affect until 1/1/2026. Softening but not soft. Seeing a trend of appropriate rate decisions by our favorite names. The more diversified and niche of an insurance product suite the better in my experience. The 2010 to 2019 soft cycle experienced an influx of "cheap" capital that led to very poor industry wide underwriting decisions (simple supply and demand) for the better half of a decade. High level it seems like the specialty carriers are holding"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-19T18:31Z 2306 followers, 1053 engagements

"@CreativeCap89 Didn't $PLTR wipe out the consultants role That's my take when I talk to the corporate strategy teams across $AIG $HIG $TRV etc"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T14:56Z 2304 followers, XXX engagements

"@TylerHardt Ive never seen a deal $OWL cant do lol"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T23:54Z 2306 followers, XX engagements

"I guess $ERIE cant lose your policyholder surplus indefinitely without some repercussions. AM Best downgrade from A+ to A. The groups surplus position has been significantly impacted by large underwriting losses driven by elevated weather-related events and increased severity in both the auto and homeowners segments. Consequently the groups risk-adjusted capitalization as measured by Bests Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) has been on a downward trend. This deterioration has been accompanied by rising underwriting leverage mixed reserve development and gradually declining liquidity metrics"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-05T17:11Z 2304 followers, 1036 engagements

"Solid print by the boys up North $FRFHF / $FFH.TO underwriting results consistent and time and time again prove to be world class investors in global equity markets "Oh Canada My Home and Native Land""
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-31T21:29Z 2247 followers, 1801 engagements

"Have to look into this more but Global Infrastructure Partners track record has been second to none over the decades. Hard to say the top is in when GIP via $BLK is making a large splash in the market with plenty more in their coffers. $MSFT $NVDA"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T20:33Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"Had to check my body for bullet holes These days happen. Still up this year is what it is. Holding strong sold some positions I was up on and put the excess cash into $WRB $ORI $GOOG today. Found an interesting sonar/lidar/battery storage company I like today as well (haven't posted on the name yet) but will provide an update after I complete some more DD and make a decision"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T20:24Z 2307 followers, 1559 engagements

"Funny these guys were trying to buy Everton at one point unbelievable story"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T20:29Z 2308 followers, XXX engagements

"Its a great day to own a bunch of counter cyclical names: $ORI $WRB $CB $PGR $HIG $BRK Own $AMBC and $SKWD but more for situational reasons. $FFH.TO is trading like a tech stock today whats up with the Canadian investor base here"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T13:36Z 2292 followers, 1111 engagements

"@GhTheProphet If you want some non-lemonade trapped value advice take a look at what I put out on $HCI $HIPO $AMBC $ATLC which was a money call and $KRNY and why we thought $SEZL was so overvalued"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-01T20:06Z 2271 followers, XXX engagements

"Not all PMI Carriers are created equal $ACGL. It's a compelling medium term hold. $ACGL high quality team. $1B in PMI premium running at a XX% combined ratio. U-3 Unemployment XXX% (Stable - below full employment) National 1-4 Delinquency Rate XXXX% (Historically Low) Severity Risk XX% (Below historical average 88%) Average FICO XXX Average DTI XX% Average LTV XXXX% Concerns being a softening job market tariff nuttiness and regional asset bubbles impacting LTV's"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-07T13:13Z 2304 followers, 1309 engagements

"I've been sourcing data on $PGR unfortunately just like all of the InsurTech's - Progressives telematics algorithm and underwriting materials are confidential. What has been interesting to learn is how comprehensive their data infrastructure is how complex and dynamic their pricing models are and all the AI integrations they've made to the tech stack across their entire flywheel. Funny enough Tesla insurance was the only one that made the mistake of including their "confidential" telematics algorithm in their rate filings. I think if we were able to take a peek under the hood of each they are"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-01T14:29Z 2308 followers, 2655 engagements

"@TyRobben @BrokerSteve412 Love this exchange"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T17:36Z 2306 followers, XX engagements

"I think a path to $XXX is likely and probably a dumb move selling before the government bailout is over but I just want to capitalize on some discounts out there and add to my google position as I see them as a clear winner in the AI trade"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-16T17:51Z 2307 followers, XXX engagements

"I think $ROOT will be fine but heres a few as I just enjoy playing devils advocate: if $CVNA ends up having the same credit quality quality / charge off issues as $KMX or DriveTime related party financing ends up being a scam youll have issues as OEM is such a big part of the PIF story. Fortunately $CVNA earnings are before $ROOT so something to track carefully. A lot of problems in the near and sub prime world at the moment which could be challenging as $ROOT services alot of that being predominantly a non-standard auto carrier. UW leverage is high at 5x so if the loss ratio shoots up for an"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T07:56Z 2291 followers, XXX engagements

"@GhTheProphet Oh and how we warned folks $AGL was a dumpster fire and then it dropped 80%"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-01T20:07Z 2271 followers, XXX engagements

""The more appropriate 8pt curve says our loss trend is developing at +12.5% use the 6pt curve and lets hope for the best" $LMND $TRUP"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:07Z 2281 followers, XXX engagements

"$FFH.TO / $FRFHF still trades at 10x earnings and 1.5x book"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-29T13:42Z 2306 followers, 1249 engagements

"Doesn't seem like it will be much wind damage (seems like it will be mostly flood damage which is excluded under homeowners policies) but a reminder that $ERIE has 171100 homeowners policies at risk in North Carolina"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-21T17:55Z 2304 followers, XXX engagements

"More to follow but $ERIE underlying insurance subsidiaries produced a pretty massive $XXX million net loss through the first half of 2025 on a statutory basis. That's up $XXX million from the 1st quarter. Surplus dropped by $XX million and would have fallen further had the carriers not experienced an unrealized gain in their investment portfolio. The public co is showing record profit while the insurers are getting absolutely drained. More importantly policyholders are the ones subsidizing the shareholder dividend"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-26T16:53Z 2304 followers, 1725 engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA @TyRobben Not super familiar with $EVER will have to take a look"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T00:19Z 2287 followers, XXX engagements

"It's really funny asking Chat GPT X - how is OpenAI going to pay $AMD and $CRWV for these compute contracts. I received (we don't know yet) and (it would expose them to tremendous financial risk) lol For fun lets include $NVDA and $ORCL. The demand is certainly there I quite honestly have no clue if the economics are there for OpenAI due to current use cases of the technology. It's no secret they burn an incredible amount of cash. It's why I don't mind taking a bet with $GOOG and have them utilize free cash flow rather than all of these crazy compute contracts for my AI play. Full disclosure"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T14:59Z 2306 followers, 1063 engagements

"Very rarely will I short a stock. If I do the conviction level has to be insanely high. Portfolio is +99.5% long at the moment. $ERIE as I've stated is structurally broken. There are a surprising amount of local insurance agents that work with Erie who are on X and have all shed some very interesting light on this company. It's a giant market cap with a sleepy trading volume. I think we see $XXX much sooner than we see $XXX. Famous last words Happy to eat my lunch if I'm wrong"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T18:34Z 2308 followers, 11.5K engagements

"Consolidate the insurers earnings into the publicly traded entity that operates on a fee model and $ERIE trades a ridiculous PE multiple"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T20:13Z 2305 followers, XXX engagements

"@punderfultweet @andycyau PGR could ramp up premium tomorrow if they wanted but they use an fee model where they feel UW profit isnt adequate and behind closed doors are very active with agents on business outside of just personal lines"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T22:59Z 2303 followers, XX engagements

"Any insurance agents out there that place personal auto Would love to hear about what you are seeing in terms of auto claims inflation. Actuaries welcome to join the chat as well. $PGR $ALL $ERIE"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T20:25Z 2295 followers, XXX engagements

"@HettyGreen2020 If it comes down to 20x or less I agree it would be a buy for me as well. Ultimately its a fantastic business model. Every time the market has tried pricing it above 30x the cap has come crashing back to reality. Happened to $RYAN and $ARX"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-23T12:31Z 2292 followers, XXX engagements

"Since a car is a depreciating asset I think its common that LTV runs above 100%. I remember looking at Carvana credit acceptance and carmax and all the securitization on the LTV side was similar I believe bigger issue with $CVNA is rising delinquencies and loan extensions / repos which are not great in older vintages"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T01:56Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"Historically speaking very accurate about their underwriting culture. Ive personally stayed away from investing in $RLI due to the rather high multiples the stock trades at and I cant say they were the best at taking advantage of the hard market. The reserves have heated up a little lately (Prime is having reserve issues) and with a stock priced for near perfection thats a little too risky for me. I think some of the newer E&S markets like $KNSL $ASIC $HG seem to have a software / net expense ratio advantage over them as well. Hard to see someone buying them due to the goodwill charge they"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-29T02:48Z 2303 followers, XXX engagements

"Margin call Monday $LMND"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T21:24Z 2289 followers, 1704 engagements

"$CVNA Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025-P1 Prime securitization with XX% sub-prime mixed in great job guys lol Meanwhile the +31 day delinquency rate continues to climb every single year for Prime and Subprime securitizations"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-14T14:48Z 2287 followers, 2755 engagements

"@Stickstrom I wish them well the whole point was I'd never want my personal assets insured by a carrier that allocates this little of capital to their carrier"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T13:20Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements

"$LGN really interesting company. Wish I bought their competitors 5yrs ago $STN and $WSP.TO. Business is fixed contract consulting and engineering focused on data center education and life science focused with $2.6B of contracts in the pipeline. XX% of contract flow comes from $10m sized contracts. Blackstone purchased $LGN in 2020 XXX day lock-up on a large PE backed port co always puts some fear into my heart but this seems like a good multi-year hold due to the size of the ownership. Company is experiencing margin improvement and expected proceeds will pay down a chunk of debt which will"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-20T20:48Z 2205 followers, 2131 engagements

"Found my spreadsheet #thatwaseasy $CVNA"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T23:29Z 2305 followers, 1470 engagements

"Theres a select few who know what they are doing in commercial auto and the rest are bottom feeders chasing growth and lighting piles of $$$ on fire. Winners: $ORI $RLI $WRB"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-12T12:57Z 2306 followers, XXX engagements