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@CedarStResearch Avatar @CedarStResearch Cedar Street Research

Cedar Street Research posts on X about $pgr, insurance, $erie, $lmnd the most. They currently have XXXXX followers and 1457 posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

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Social category influence stocks finance cryptocurrencies technology brands countries currencies

Social topic influence $pgr #4, insurance #283, $erie #1, $lmnd #116, $wrb #2, $ffhto #7, $root #43, $ori #17, $cb #2, $np #11

Top assets mentioned Progressive Corp (PGR) Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE) Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) W R Berkley Corp (WRB) The Root Network (ROOT) Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Cheeseball (CB) Neenah, Inc. Common Stock (NP) Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG) Ryan Specialty Group, Inc. (RYAN) Carvana Co. (CVNA) Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) TrustVerse (TRV) Brookfield Corporation (BN) Duolingo, Inc. Class A Common Stock (DUOL) Elevance Health Inc (ELV) Alliance Fan Token (ALL) RLI Corp. (RLI) Ares Protocol (ARES) Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Blackstone, Inc. (BX) CNA Financial, Corp. (CNA) Ally Financial, Inc. (ALLY) RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD ORD (AHL) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC. (GWRE)

Top Social Posts #

Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"Who would have thought a flood insurer would get a huge boost from lower interest rates and higher home purchasing activity $NP"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-04T18:11Z 2202 followers, XXX engagements

"Lived in SF from 2014-2018 awesome experience very cool place but its also a complete shit hole in many parts. New Montgomery Civic Center and Lower Haight are literal war zones"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T18:43Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"@seaurchincevice @MisterAccord Not a panican lol I was abundantly clear that my trade was only a TBV trade on the close of AAC. I own all growth tech and I use insurance as a hedge. I only own the best of the best $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO $CB $BRK $HIG $BN short $ERIE and long a couple PMI names"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T13:56Z 2204 followers, XXX engagements

"@KrishnaY152841 @Ironic_Ape @Nick_Lamparelli @themotleyfool I like the Ape most open to discussing both sides"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T19:10Z 2202 followers, XX engagements

"Its pretty dumb we are holding up the budget deficit talks with the ACA tax credits which is peanuts in the scheme of things. Both parties Democrats and Republicans spend money like its water on so many other programs and theres plenty they can cut that dwarf the ACA tax credits. Per my very rough research the tax credits were less than $10B last year. 20m recipients with a delta of an annual premium of $1600 less the subsidiary to about $XXX. You could hit $UNH with a fine for that amount but its all politics. Are politicians getting dumber every year"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T01:56Z 2230 followers, 1355 engagements

"Personal insurance holds are $WRB $ORI $FFH.TO $BRK $CB $PGR $COFA.PA $HIG as my preferred compounders right now and special situations $AMBC $SKWD for reasons Ive stated in the past. I dont own $HG but I like their quant strategy versus the traditional hedge fund / private investment strategy that failed carriers like $SPNT and $GLRE in the past. Have some exposure to PMI as well"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-29T02:58Z 2204 followers, XXX engagements

"Where all the selling is happening"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T13:13Z 2230 followers, 1160 engagements

"Happy for the $NP community great company. I was willing to buy $NP at anything below $1.75B obviously that valuation never even came close to fruition. That was 20x FY Adj EBITDA 2025 which I had pegged at $93.3m. $NP is now trading at 45x that Adj EBITDA. Anyone notice that their market cap is $4.2B and the entire Flood insurance market is $5B Let that sink in for a second lol $NP can't write XXX% of the market since +50% of the policies in-force are in high hazard flood zones that are uninsurable. Do I think $NP is a fantastic company (Yes) do I think this valuation is completely nuts"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T17:54Z 2230 followers, 1321 engagements

"When you consolidate $ERIE earnings between the public entity and the private insurance companies the LTM PE is 37x (you can own $GOOG for 26x right now - growing faster and highly profitable) and when you strip out the realized gains on investments that boosted statutory earnings you will see the pre-tax operating income LTM PE Multiple well it's very high at 121x"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T21:33Z 2204 followers, 2475 engagements

"Took a hard look at $AGL over the weekend. As much as I would love to buy a stock at $XXXX when it's trading at XX% of revenue I'm going to hold off for now. I do not think there are any fundamentals that are moving the stock other than pure speculation right now. The CMS controls rate increases and decreases for Medicare Advantage providers and $AGL charges their customers via fixed premiums per customer through their value based care contracts that is subject to the rate limitations of the CMS. CMA approved a +5.6% rate change for 2026 everything I'm reading says this is barely keeping pace"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-25T14:34Z 2204 followers, 1141 engagements

"Everything about $RYAN screams frothy valuation"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-11T15:40Z 2224 followers, 1601 engagements

"@realroseceline Yeah I don't disagree one of those put your blinders on and just focus on the business type of markets for them. Not a fan of their XOL reinsurance structure but I'm a broken record on that topic"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T17:29Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements

"The top line premium is $92m. So around 50000 vehicles for MM. Plus the strategy is grow and retain less reinsurance. 1-100yrs event would impact it yes. Only need around 1000 vehicles to experience it not all 50000. I'm sorry but your not going to convince me that $20m in surplus is "well capitalized" insurer"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T13:19Z 2230 followers, XX engagements

"Hopefully the print isn't too small this is what I would define as "cash flow underwriting". P&C Combined consistently over XXX% and operating ratio fairly healthy due to net investment income. $CNA produced $XXX billion in underwriting losses and $XXXX billion in net investment income from Q1 2016 to Q1 2025. The business model seems to "work" but why would anyone want to pay a multiple on fixed income yields"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-19T20:57Z 2229 followers, XXX engagements

"Your blocked in $ROOT Ill try and fix this. @KabraxFX @andycyau Nick is a staunch believer in $ROOT he just doesnt think its the next top X insurer. I think thats pretty fair. Theres plenty of niche powerhouses across the insurance landscape - I dont see lemonade or root rushing into longshore political risk or private mortgage insurance anytime soon so plenty of room for everyone in the Trillion dollar game. Lets not forget this is a highly fragmented market its not winner takes all and never has been"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T05:08Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements

"@MMMTwealth Maybe but this is also a reminder as to why operating leverage ex CAC is a really dumb metric to go by for $LMND"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T11:23Z 2206 followers, XXX engagements

"With OpenAI selling their product considerably below cost how screwed would $DUOL be if OpenAI spiked their cost to process a token due to all the crazy compute deals they are doing and need to meet revenue expectations"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T20:40Z 2191 followers, 1244 engagements

"I appreciate your insights but I dont think you understand how commercial or commercial E&S insurance is transacted And how complex tort liability claims are handled XX% of KNSL expense ratio is brokerage commission and taxes license and fees (lemonade cant fix those costs - cost to file a form and taxes). They do not use guidewire or a 3rd party DSL XXX% built in-house. In all honesty I do not see a single merit comparing Lemonade to a commercial insurer"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T23:28Z 2220 followers, XX engagements

"You have to hold a minimum amount on your balance sheet when issuing a securitization. I forget the exact % but it's not much around 5-10% of the gross loan at origination. They sell it to a variety of investors such as $ALLY and Drivetime to name two. Not a company I really follow but had to review their securitization data at one point for work"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:11Z 2205 followers, XX engagements

"I think $ROOT can turn it around from here probably getting nice discount if you think growth is on the horizon. Probably going to see a rise in marketing spend will be interesting to see how efficiently they can manage that with growth / profitability as their net expense ratio is much higher than the industry average at 30.3%. Timm is very smart just not as marketing savvy as $LMND or capital markets savvy but his accounting is also not an adjusted alphabet soup. Its is the age old question would you rather have XX% of a $1B or XX% of $80B As an executive youd pick the later as an investor"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T13:53Z 2229 followers, XXX engagements

"I do not understand $ERIE valuation. Trades at 29x LTM EPS and grew X% last quarter. The are not good at underwriting or pricing. They've managed to lose $2.6B of capital of their policyholders funds from 2021 to Q2 2025. They do not buy back stock and their dividend is only 1.5%. Makes my brain hurt"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-02T16:17Z 2220 followers, 2395 engagements

"If $DUOL is an AI play as a white labeled GPT company (#1 token user) than $PGR should change their website to because they are integrating ai throughout the entire platform. Kidding about the website ofcourse"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T14:48Z 2229 followers, XXX engagements

"Interesting take on UBI by JD Power $PGR has some work to do. I hear the app is good but in states where the device is statutorily required to be installed in the car due to a variety of items but privacy laws driving the issue its not as user friendly. Nationwide seems to be very well liked by their Insured(s)"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-05T00:07Z 2205 followers, 1196 engagements

"@LeopoldVI @IAMinifan Your probably right"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T03:31Z 2205 followers, XXX engagements

"I'd throw $RNR into a near same quality bucket as $ACGL for the world of Bermuda carriers. Very well run reinsurer highly diversified and doing what I think is currently undervalued or underappreciated as it pertains to the great things they are doing with their ILS sidecar / fee income model"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T21:55Z 2230 followers, 2609 engagements

"@0xAvious @bgurley Right now they are private for a lot longer because no one is willing to mark the fair values down and the auditors play ball. The BDCs are feeling the pain the credit arms will follow if it persist. Its just a cycle not a new thing"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T03:55Z 2205 followers, XX engagements

"Management "lets keep our rate flat as loss trend is rising steadily on an 8pt curve at +10% (let's forgo the the much more appropriate 12pt curve trend of +12%) we can hide the long-term impact with short term growth". This is exactly why there is no margin in Pet insurance. Grow at all cost deal with the ramifications later. $LMND $TRUP 1/3"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:04Z 2230 followers, 1538 engagements

"$ELV path $XXX working much faster than ever anticipated. ACA deal likely - weirdly something so small causing a huge bottleneck in the government shutdown talks. Hard to get votes for your party if you don't approve voters health insurance subsidies"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T14:12Z 2205 followers, 1300 engagements

"Goal line technology officially removed my federal check that is still enroute from my extension is no longer offsides"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T02:28Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"Again you should understand how BCAR works on top of NAIC guidelines. Yes it is definitely a minimum if you understood BCAR. They are retaining more risk going forward so a $50m loss would effectively wipe out that surplus as it's still running above XXX% combined. Wasn't really predicting receivership. The whole point was I personally would never buy insurance from a carrier that has $23m of funds to cover losses. That worse than some of the FL CAT reciprocals exchanges"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T20:48Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"$ERIE was perfectly fine for a number of years but the past 4yrs the private companies have been hosed. Unfortunately that trend hasnt reversed and Im told from a lot of insurance agents that they are moving as much as they can to $PGR. Yes I like $PGR I think the threat of FSD is a fair amount of time from now. Very innovative company and integrating AI across their tech stack. $KNSL Ive never owned due to the high PE multiple. Saw it was down a lot today but didnt know why Multiple is compressing to a point where Ill have to revisit it"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-26T01:27Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"Eyes peeled on $NP today. Go time"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T13:29Z 2203 followers, 1227 engagements

"Long-term hold and forget you own it: $ORI $WRB $CB $FFH.TO $BRK SBA compounder: $NBN (LTV / NCO goldmine) Special situation: $AMBC - Oaktree / Everspan Sale $ATLC - Fintiv Lawsuit against $AAPL Cheap Turnaround Stories: $JRVR - 0.5x book (Uber killed them) $UFCS - 0.9x book (solid fixer upper) $AHL - 5x PE (tough past long tail) $AGL - 0.1x sales (high risk turnaround) PMI Resi Mortgage Exposure: $ACT $NMIH $ESNT $AGCL $MTG Ideal Target for a Takeover: $SAFT (1.2x book cheap for personal lines management cant diversify out of MA or raise rates quick enough - lazy dividend stock with solid"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-09T16:48Z 2205 followers, 5139 engagements

"Received a message directly from a Progressive insider today. Glad to know team $PGR is listening"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-26T14:09Z 2205 followers, 2447 engagements

"Very cool embedded insurance platform for renters thanks for the great write up @FloodQuake and team @coverager. Looks like $PGR accesses it via their American Modern agency / fee play. Property management software giant Entrata is moving deeper into residents lives having launched Homebody RXP back in May. The Resident Experience platform combines rent payments maintenance requests and on-demand lifestyle services plus a growing suite of insurance offerings. $PGR $LMND $MKL $ALL $AIZ"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T13:47Z 2207 followers, 1108 engagements

"The $ERIE slow drip continues. If your long just a caution as institutions have been slowly unloading this thing. Unfortunately there's almost no trading volume so longs are trapped at the moment"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T18:16Z 2220 followers, 1304 engagements

"I think so they are doing something like $1.4B in GWP but they only have $245m of capital. Probably a prong approach much under 1x PS is pretty cheap. PB is hard to use right now since the balance sheet is still in its infancy and earnings are a little choppy at the moment but there's enough quarters strung together to us it as a proxy"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T18:46Z 2190 followers, XX engagements

"Im a huge fan of insurtech solutions theres alot going on in the private markets these guys have no clue about. Had management did some more homework they wouldve seen Neptune $NP coming. Small MGA with real operating leverage with near equal cap (admittedly I think the valuation is rich)"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T12:20Z 2201 followers, XXX engagements

"I'm surprised the analyst community is a slightly trailing the sushi trade going on with $WRB. I'm a big advocate of the potential for cost of capital synergies with this one once it's flushed out"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T14:54Z 2225 followers, XXX engagements

"@Run4Covers @spartywrx Nothing wrong with $RYAN as an entity I just thought they were overvalued and overpaying for MGA's"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-04T21:25Z 2206 followers, XX engagements

"This post had almost nothing to do with lemonade it was how someone in the Lemonade community was talking out of their ass about $PGR growth strategy in the early days. Its more about the fact that someone assumed something with zero due diligence and had they just looked on. $PGR website they wouldve known they were completely wrong about underpricing to gain market share"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-05T09:40Z 2201 followers, XXX engagements

"My $CVNA securitization spreadsheet is all over X and keeps getting reposted once in a while its fun to see someone post it now. It might be working as the ABS speed is speeding up (no pun intended). Theres no way of knowing when this will end. I work with banks insurers and lenders daily theres amazing things you can do to delay or move losses. What I do know is straight up to the right is good for a stock chart and is not good for a securitization CNL. $CVNA XXX% built a user friendly way to trade used vehicles I just highly doubt they dodged the $KMX and tricolor etc mess that near /"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T23:09Z 2230 followers, 5000 engagements

"Did $PGR say tariff $PGR has the most dynamic pricing strategy and is way ahead of the tariff problem. Management commentary from Q2 analyst call"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T20:52Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"@4thShitPosting It's a credit expense so booked after LLAE and hit's the expense ratio"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T13:16Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"$GWRE is an interesting stock has a deep moat in the commercial insurance sector actively looking to integrate AI across the stack or partner up. There's only so many commercial insurance carriers and I think they are contracted with XXX going from memory. It's tough owning something at it's current valuation but it is a great company and cornered a market. I attend that InsurTech convention in NY every other year some software businesses doing very cool things but most are focused on one aspect of the services provided by $GWRE. There are so many payments focused companies it's a little"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-06T13:55Z 2206 followers, XXX engagements

"The sushi trade is real will be interesting to see how Mitsui strategically bids up $WRB overtime as well"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T03:30Z 2220 followers, 1905 engagements

"I wish the $LMND auto team the best. But I would never buy insurance from an insurance company that has $22.6m of surplus allocated to it"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T19:13Z 2230 followers, 3196 engagements

"Some anonymous feedback from an actuary and two agents. $PGR"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T21:35Z 2205 followers, 14.8K engagements

"I guess $ERIE cant lose your policyholder surplus indefinitely without some repercussions. AM Best downgrade from A+ to A. The groups surplus position has been significantly impacted by large underwriting losses driven by elevated weather-related events and increased severity in both the auto and homeowners segments. Consequently the groups risk-adjusted capitalization as measured by Bests Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) has been on a downward trend. This deterioration has been accompanied by rising underwriting leverage mixed reserve development and gradually declining liquidity metrics"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-05T17:11Z 2220 followers, 1035 engagements

"Solid print by the boys up North $FRFHF / $FFH.TO underwriting results consistent and time and time again prove to be world class investors in global equity markets "Oh Canada My Home and Native Land""
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-31T21:29Z 2217 followers, 1801 engagements

"Its a great day to own a bunch of counter cyclical names: $ORI $WRB $CB $PGR $HIG $BRK Own $AMBC and $SKWD but more for situational reasons. $FFH.TO is trading like a tech stock today whats up with the Canadian investor base here"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T13:36Z 2220 followers, 1111 engagements

"Not all PMI Carriers are created equal $ACGL. It's a compelling medium term hold. $ACGL high quality team. $1B in PMI premium running at a XX% combined ratio. U-3 Unemployment XXX% (Stable - below full employment) National 1-4 Delinquency Rate XXXX% (Historically Low) Severity Risk XX% (Below historical average 88%) Average FICO XXX Average DTI XX% Average LTV XXXX% Concerns being a softening job market tariff nuttiness and regional asset bubbles impacting LTV's"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-07T13:13Z 2205 followers, 1304 engagements

"I've been sourcing data on $PGR unfortunately just like all of the InsurTech's - Progressives telematics algorithm and underwriting materials are confidential. What has been interesting to learn is how comprehensive their data infrastructure is how complex and dynamic their pricing models are and all the AI integrations they've made to the tech stack across their entire flywheel. Funny enough Tesla insurance was the only one that made the mistake of including their "confidential" telematics algorithm in their rate filings. I think if we were able to take a peek under the hood of each they are"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-01T14:29Z 2220 followers, 2360 engagements

"If your interested in how $ROOT manages their capital contributions and dividends between the holding company CAR and their statutory subsidiaries here is the YTD June XX 2025 statutory financials. Explanation in the thread / images I posted below"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-11T15:25Z 2190 followers, 2687 engagements

"My bet is that Neptune $NP will outperform Slide $SLDE. If the IPO multiple is nuts I'll reassess. Lucas and his wife paid themselves $37m last year Burgess paid himself $510k. Slide profit was 6x Neptune's but CEO compensation difference was 42x"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-04T17:49Z 2205 followers, 2376 engagements

"$FFH.TO / $FRFHF still trades at 10x earnings and 1.5x book"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-29T13:42Z 2190 followers, 1225 engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA @TyRobben Not super familiar with $EVER will have to take a look"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T00:19Z 2199 followers, XXX engagements

"It's really funny asking Chat GPT X - how is OpenAI going to pay $AMD and $CRWV for these compute contracts. I received (we don't know yet) and (it would expose them to tremendous financial risk) lol For fun lets include $NVDA and $ORCL. The demand is certainly there I quite honestly have no clue if the economics are there for OpenAI due to current use cases of the technology. It's no secret they burn an incredible amount of cash. It's why I don't mind taking a bet with $GOOG and have them utilize free cash flow rather than all of these crazy compute contracts for my AI play. Full disclosure"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T14:59Z 2219 followers, 1056 engagements

"Any insurance agents out there that place personal auto Would love to hear about what you are seeing in terms of auto claims inflation. Actuaries welcome to join the chat as well. $PGR $ALL $ERIE"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-25T20:25Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"@HettyGreen2020 If it comes down to 20x or less I agree it would be a buy for me as well. Ultimately its a fantastic business model. Every time the market has tried pricing it above 30x the cap has come crashing back to reality. Happened to $RYAN and $ARX"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-23T12:31Z 2204 followers, XXX engagements

"Historically speaking very accurate about their underwriting culture. Ive personally stayed away from investing in $RLI due to the rather high multiples the stock trades at and I cant say they were the best at taking advantage of the hard market. The reserves have heated up a little lately (Prime is having reserve issues) and with a stock priced for near perfection thats a little too risky for me. I think some of the newer E&S markets like $KNSL $ASIC $HG seem to have a software / net expense ratio advantage over them as well. Hard to see someone buying them due to the goodwill charge they"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-29T02:48Z 2205 followers, XXX engagements

"$LGN really interesting company. Wish I bought their competitors 5yrs ago $STN and $WSP.TO. Business is fixed contract consulting and engineering focused on data center education and life science focused with $2.6B of contracts in the pipeline. XX% of contract flow comes from $10m sized contracts. Blackstone purchased $LGN in 2020 XXX day lock-up on a large PE backed port co always puts some fear into my heart but this seems like a good multi-year hold due to the size of the ownership. Company is experiencing margin improvement and expected proceeds will pay down a chunk of debt which will"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-20T20:48Z 2205 followers, 2131 engagements

"Just a thought but if $ROOT does have a negative print in Q3 we probably havent seen the bottom. LTM EPS is $XXXX negative print maybe puts it down to $4.50-5.00 pure guess and not much science to it. Unfortunately at the mercy of the market and if folks hold the multiple where its at because well maybe the analyst community gets a little nervous on the forward projections they have then you could possibly see $XX a share at $XXXX LTM EPS. Conversely a positive print and the forward projections should increase but Timm was pretty clear he anticipates earnings compression in the near term"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T17:59Z 2205 followers, 1708 engagements

"App Store - Finance Top Apps $PGR $LMND $ROOT $PGR #7 and State Farm surprisingly #14 dont hold a legacy fart down XX second world record Im told Insurtech in the nose bleeds"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T11:41Z 2230 followers, 1988 engagements

"Im not up to speed on this at all but safe to assume $HOOD cleaned out some folks pretty good with margin calls Friday Citadel strikes again"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T21:19Z 2230 followers, 1512 engagements

"Pretty wild you can buy $GOOG for 13.6x 2025 EV/EBITDA or $AJG for 13.7x and $BRO for 15.3x. I will keep loading up on Google as long as that continues to track"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-20T16:49Z 2204 followers, 3341 engagements

"Friday's are nice when a lot of names are performing. $ERIE catching that sweet sweet free ride. $ORI $WRB $CB $FFH.TO and so on"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T15:09Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"Spent a good chunk of my afternoon brushing up on life insurers NAIC investment model act RBC/BCAR methodologies/guidelines and statutory vs BDA/CYM accounting treatments. There are much more fun things to do in life I can assure you That being said these companies run incredibly complex operations $ARES $APO $BX. You should probably only own them as a hedge not sure if anyone truly fully understand all that they do. If you do god bless"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T10:52Z 2230 followers, 1103 engagements

"Nice move by Radian $RDN a step in the right direction to becoming more like $ACGL simply meaning a diversified P&C / PMI carrier rather than a monoline PMI carrier. Didnt overpay 1.5x book and around 7.7x 2025e pre-tax operating income or closer to 10x earnings. Well played boys. Simple highlight this was well executed"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-18T13:38Z 2230 followers, 1099 engagements

"Received a note from a friend not something Im very familiar with but updated JD Power customer satisfaction ratings on Renters. Trying to dig up the recent auto one as well. $ERIE $TRV $PGR $ALL $HIG $LMND"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T23:21Z 2204 followers, 1661 engagements

"$ROOT policies in force grew from 453k in Q1 to 455k in Q2 and average premium was flat. Average personal auto DWP premium change based on statutory data was +4.5% in Q2 and $PGR did +14.4%. What are we thinking about for Q3 for $ROOT FY 2024 PIF grew +2% with some marginal rate change which was a strong growth year for the market"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T22:03Z 2207 followers, 1359 engagements

"$PGR down on an EPS miss but its the weirdest EPS miss. $PGR incurred a $950m credit expense in Florida in their personal lines department because they were too profitable (above statutory limits) and have to credit money back to policyholders as a result. This credit ballooned their expense ratio for the quarter. Excluding this EPS grew +52% and their underlying underwriting results looked phenomenal. Since they filed for rate reductions this is hopefully just a 1x hit to earnings $PGR said they modeled the full credit for profit above stat limit. Call will be interesting most important item"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-15T12:58Z 2230 followers, 7102 engagements

"@CreativeCap89 @Stickstrom Are you insinuating Lemonade is going to enter the commercial market As an example $KNSL built their entire stack from the ground up they have something just as efficient as Lemonade. It's a company full of software engineers and there are many other companies built that way"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T16:28Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"Another embedded renters solution I remember talking to Alex a long time ago when they were building this product at Boost. Glad its working out. $LMND $PGR $AIZ"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T14:08Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements

"Been awhile E&S carriers seem to be having a strong Q3 based on stamp data I reviewed but will look at the whole sector as Ive only really looked at individual companies right now. Definitely way down from its high. $RYAN has a good flywheel in terms of wholesale brokerage MGA platform and some balance sheet risk they take on in a separate reinsurance cell via Bermuda. They buy MGAs on LTM multiples and the stock is priced on a forward multiple so thats an immediate gain plus synergistically they can wholesale accounts into the MGA with synergies analyzed pre-close. Do I think all their MGA"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T15:22Z 2201 followers, XXX engagements

"$ELV moving in the right direction up to $XXX at the moment. Snuck in $ELV at $305.55"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T16:15Z 2204 followers, 1962 engagements

"If you want less life insurance exposure and more infrastructure and P&C exposure Id suggest owning $BN instead of $ARES $APO and $BX"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T10:53Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"$PGR historical statutory underwriting profit (loss)"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T17:32Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements

"$AGL could really do themselves a favor by adding the initials "ai" to the website. Joking of course. The path down seems never ending if they can't get their pricing model to work and shake off that adverse development"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-07T19:18Z 2204 followers, XXX engagements

"Can't believe $WRB almost nipped $XX today the Japanese buying this thing up with no registered filings"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-30T15:17Z 2220 followers, 2913 engagements

"Keep your eyes peeled 🍣 🚊"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-12T12:22Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"Institutions pushing into consumer discretionary is usually a recession signal. It's just a signal and not always right but a trend retail should probably pay attention to"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T14:30Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"What are some of your favorite banks insurers or SaaS plays and why Insurtech opinions are welcome. Heres a few of my personal favorite medium / long term holds: $ORI $WRB $FFH.TO $GOOG $CRWD $MSFT $TSM $PGR Heres a few interest rate plays: $ACGL $NMIH $ESNT $ACT $KRNY $JPM $MS $LDI $BETR"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-05T13:55Z 2220 followers, 2421 engagements

"Not going to lie this was a very frustrating print to read this morning to say the least. I have $NP at $93m of forward adjusted EBITDA - TTM Q2 2026. A lot of folks don't know this but $NP was purchased for 18x EBITDA on 5/11/23 by FTV Capital (forward EBITDA was 12x). At the time $NP enterprise value was $900m on TTM EBITDA estimated at $50m. So FTV is shooting for a 3.1x MOIC and a gross IRR of XXX% after holding an asset for 2yrs. really If they go forward with the $2.8B estimated cap I see this falling flat on it's face just like $SLDE and $ARX. 30x adjusted EBITDA will not hold. I see"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-22T15:54Z 2198 followers, 5052 engagements

"Ever looked into KI Coalition Next $KNSL $HG or how $HIG $TRV and $CB fully automated small commercial Commercial already uses machine learning in all their actuarial models and it's all getting a fresh shot of whiskey as Palantir is quite literally partnering up with everyone behind the scenes"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T16:05Z 2206 followers, XXX engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA @VikingVan100 It's a machine on wheels own a fair amount of FairFax"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-22T19:24Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements

"@Bonhoeffer_KDS CAT prone earnings swings. Its one of the main reasons I dont own the stock from a pure reinsurer standpoint I just think they make good underwriting decisions"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T22:25Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"It's funny because I've talked to a lot of $PGR insiders lately and everyone I talked to basically said the analyst community has no clue how their rating models work. A couple of $PGR folks commented that they have their inflation model broken down by actual vehicle brand / parts and are way ahead of the curve in terms of repricing inflation trends"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T14:44Z 2203 followers, XXX engagements

"Seems like old dogs can learn new tricks. Hard to get more efficient than a software based parametric payout. $CB"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T18:45Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"I agree I view this as a good move for $ROOT @RootInsurance Ill hold off on my application 🧮 but a step in the right direction as Ive pointed out there capital modeling strategy is a bit of a maze"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T13:40Z 2230 followers, 1670 engagements

"LIC is at $200m and MM is at $23m as of June 2025. The ACL is a set formula the NAIC applies to carriers so it can be applied evenly across the industry. You insure 81000 vehicles a bad sneeze and you can kiss it goodbye. It's why BCAR methodology is a layer on top of RBC model. This capital model would probably get a CCC+ rating from AM Best. I don't care if they hold more or less prefer to see insurance carriers succeed. It's just a higher risk model. Personally I wouldn't want to be Insured by a company that holds the absolute minimum"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T19:57Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

""If we keep our annual earned premium flat across the portfolio at $XXX even though we know it's going to experience adverse development we can grow that's all that matters" $LMND $TRUP"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:05Z 2204 followers, XXX engagements

"As pointed out by a friend and a very interesting dynamic to watch but are $ERIE longs simply trapped in a stock with almost no daily trading volume Seems like this is just a slow grind down to $200-$250 in the meantime. Love that analyst still put weight on the exchanges EPS and a neutral outlook look under the hood at the SERFF data and youll see the insurance portfolios are structurally broken from a premium / loss trend"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-18T13:54Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"Been a big push I've seen it from both sides of the aisle. They are over promising liquidity and long-term returns in my opinion. I'm fine with a carrier holding some illiquid assets for yield but there's limits to what they can hold. Junk per NAIC Model Act is usually limited to 1-2%. If it's a holding company structure different story"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-13T18:38Z 2230 followers, XX engagements

"@FelixKern2 I honestly wish them luck. It's capital "light" at it's finest. It's not anyway I'd run a balance sheet"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-14T19:43Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"Saw a post saying $PGR produced net losses in it's early years to gain market share as a justification for $LMND. I don't really care what $LMND does or doesn't do but it's quite the opposite. That individual clearly has no clue what their rule of XX is and it's been institutionalized in the company since they went into the auto market. 1/2"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-04T17:31Z 2190 followers, 2534 engagements

"@CreativeCap89 Didn't $PLTR wipe out the consultants role That's my take when I talk to the corporate strategy teams across $AIG $HIG $TRV etc"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T14:56Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements

"@Run4Covers @spartywrx It's not $RYAN will put a post out on it shortly. We have a bunch of other items on our plate and happy to release some of the data to the public for free. Although based on the way $RYAN is trading it looks like we were pretty on point on that one to"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-04T21:05Z 2206 followers, XX engagements

"I think $ROOT will be fine but heres a few as I just enjoy playing devils advocate: if $CVNA ends up having the same credit quality quality / charge off issues as $KMX or DriveTime related party financing ends up being a scam youll have issues as OEM is such a big part of the PIF story. Fortunately $CVNA earnings are before $ROOT so something to track carefully. A lot of problems in the near and sub prime world at the moment which could be challenging as $ROOT services alot of that being predominantly a non-standard auto carrier. UW leverage is high at 5x so if the loss ratio shoots up for an"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-08T07:56Z 2205 followers, XXX engagements

""The more appropriate 8pt curve says our loss trend is developing at +12.5% use the 6pt curve and lets hope for the best" $LMND $TRUP"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T14:07Z 2230 followers, XXX engagements

"Doesn't seem like it will be much wind damage (seems like it will be mostly flood damage which is excluded under homeowners policies) but a reminder that $ERIE has 171100 homeowners policies at risk in North Carolina"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-21T17:55Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"More to follow but $ERIE underlying insurance subsidiaries produced a pretty massive $XXX million net loss through the first half of 2025 on a statutory basis. That's up $XXX million from the 1st quarter. Surplus dropped by $XX million and would have fallen further had the carriers not experienced an unrealized gain in their investment portfolio. The public co is showing record profit while the insurers are getting absolutely drained. More importantly policyholders are the ones subsidizing the shareholder dividend"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-26T16:53Z 2220 followers, 1721 engagements

"Very rarely will I short a stock. If I do the conviction level has to be insanely high. Portfolio is +99.5% long at the moment. $ERIE as I've stated is structurally broken. There are a surprising amount of local insurance agents that work with Erie who are on X and have all shed some very interesting light on this company. It's a giant market cap with a sleepy trading volume. I think we see $XXX much sooner than we see $XXX. Famous last words Happy to eat my lunch if I'm wrong"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T18:34Z 2204 followers, 6326 engagements

"Consolidate the insurers earnings into the publicly traded entity that operates on a fee model and $ERIE trades a ridiculous PE multiple"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-09-24T20:13Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"Since a car is a depreciating asset I think its common that LTV runs above 100%. I remember looking at Carvana credit acceptance and carmax and all the securitization on the LTV side was similar I believe bigger issue with $CVNA is rising delinquencies and loan extensions / repos which are not great in older vintages"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-02T01:56Z 2220 followers, XXX engagements

"@CreativeCap89 Most of my conversations are with commercial carriers companies like $PGR do it all in house from what I understand. Not sure about the other personal lines carriers in all honesty"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-03T15:15Z 2203 followers, XXX engagements

"Margin call Monday $LMND"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-10T21:24Z 2230 followers, 1689 engagements

"$CVNA Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025-P1 Prime securitization with XX% sub-prime mixed in great job guys lol Meanwhile the +31 day delinquency rate continues to climb every single year for Prime and Subprime securitizations"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-07-14T14:48Z 2191 followers, 2749 engagements

"Found my spreadsheet #thatwaseasy $CVNA"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-10-09T23:29Z 2229 followers, 1455 engagements

"Theres a select few who know what they are doing in commercial auto and the rest are bottom feeders chasing growth and lighting piles of $$$ on fire. Winners: $ORI $RLI $WRB"
X Link @CedarStResearch 2025-08-12T12:57Z 2190 followers, XXX engagements