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![exencial_RP Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1714522190157103104.png) Exencial Research Partners [@exencial_RP](/creator/twitter/exencial_RP) on x 7298 followers
Created: 2025-07-29 02:45:00 UTC

TSLobamard || TRADE DEAL OPTIMISM HIDES RISKS AHEAD

EM equity ETF inflows have accelerated since mid-June, with South Korea and Taiwan attracting the most.

India, Brazil, and Indonesia have seen outflows, while overall EM investor commitment remains strong.

Optimism about US-China trade relations and tariff outcomes is supporting EM sentiment.

China’s export share is faltering, and growth moderation could negatively impact other EM exporters.

Front loading of US imports from EM, especially Taiwan and Southeast Asia, may lead to short-term setbacks as new tariffs are imposed.

EM central banks remain cautious on monetary policy due to tariff uncertainty and rising inflation.

South Korea and Taiwan are expected to outperform other EM Asia markets, benefiting from potential favorable US trade deals.

Brazil risks being disadvantaged by US tariff policy, while fiscal accounts are improving.

Asset allocation favors South Korea over EM ex-China equities and a KRW, TWD vs IDR, THB currency trade.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gw_ZLdsWkAEk6-J.png)

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![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1950024732189085959/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[Sentiment](/topic/sentiment)
[tariffs](/topic/tariffs)
[investment](/topic/investment)
[indonesia](/topic/indonesia)
[brazil](/topic/brazil)
[india](/topic/india)
[taiwan](/topic/taiwan)
[south korea](/topic/south-korea)

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