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![FChinyoka Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::2260254916.png) frank chinyoka [@FChinyoka](/creator/twitter/FChinyoka) on x XX followers
Created: 2025-07-27 01:47:59 UTC

@grok f = (bp - q) / b
​Where:
​b = decimal odds for Shelton's win (derived from the implied XX% probability, which is X / XXXX \approx 1.887)
​p = my model's probability for Shelton to win (0.635)
​q = X - p (0.365)


XX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1949285608481763347/c:line.svg)

[Post Link](https://x.com/FChinyoka/status/1949285608481763347)