[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Paul Mauck [@MauckPaul20249](/creator/twitter/MauckPaul20249) on x 1173 followers Created: 2025-07-26 02:07:35 UTC ..the Northern Hemisphere due to lower industrial aerosol emissions. However, transboundary aerosols from Southeast Asia (biomass burning) and occasional Northern Hemisphere transport reduced SSR by 1–3% per decade in northern Australia (Wild et al., 2005). • Evaporation Trends: Pan evaporation declines were smaller in Australia (1–2 mm/year), but still evident, correlating with dimming from Indonesian haze events (e.g., 1997–1998 fires). • Monsoon Variability: Studies (e.g., Rotstayn et al., 2007) suggest aerosols weakened the Australian monsoon in the 1970s–1980s, with rainfall 5–10% below average in wet seasons, though natural variability (ENSO) dominates. • Mechanisms: • Ocean Cooling: Dimming cools the Timor Sea, reducing evaporation and monsoon moisture, similar to INDOEX’s Indian Ocean effects. • ITCZ Shift: Northern Hemisphere aerosol cooling shifts the ITCZ southward, potentially weakening the Australian monsoon’s northern extent. • Local Aerosols: Biomass burning aerosols from Indonesia create regional dimming, suppressing convection. • Vulnerability: • Lower aerosol loading reduces dimming’s impact compared to SAM or EAM, but Indonesia’s growing emissions increase risk. • Indigenous communities and small-scale farmers are vulnerable to rainfall disruptions, though population density is lower. • Current Status: Brightening since the 1990s and low local aerosol emissions limit dimming’s current impact, but Southeast Asian haze remains a concern. Broader Implications for Billions of People • Food Security: Monsoon-dependent agriculture supports over XX% of global rice production. A XX% rainfall reduction from dimming could cut yields by 5–15%, risking hunger for millions, especially in India and Bangladesh. • Water Resources: Dimming reduces monsoon rainfall and evaporation, straining reservoirs and groundwater. South Asia’s XXX billion people face heightened water scarcity risks. • Economic Impact: Agriculture accounts for 15–20% of GDP in monsoon-reliant countries. Rainfall disruptions could destabilize economies, particularly in India and China. • Social Risks: Rural communities, comprising 60–70% of South and East Asian populations, are least equipped to adapt to monsoon failures, potentially driving migration and conflict. Uncertainties and Critical Perspective • Data Gaps: Pan evaporation and SSR data are sparse in monsoon regions like West Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, limiting precise attribution. INDOEX’s focus on the SAM leaves gaps for other monsoons. • Natural Variability: ENSO, AMO, and Indian Ocean Dipole strongly influence monsoon variability, complicating dimming’s role. For example, El Niño often overshadows aerosol effects in the Australian monsoon. • Model Limitations: Climate models struggle to simulate monsoon-aerosol interactions, with some predicting increased rainfall from warming, challenging the dimming narrative. • Regional Differences: Aerosol types (sulfates vs. black carbon) and sources (local vs. transboundary) vary, affecting dimming’s impact. South Asia’s ABCs are more potent than Australia’s sparse aerosols. • Skeptical View: The establishment emphasizes aerosols as a primary driver, but land-use changes (deforestation) and natural cycles may contribute equally. Overstating dimming risks oversimplifying complex monsoon dynamics. Conclusion Global dimming likely affected major monsoon systems beyond the WAM, including the South Asian, East Asian, and North Australian monsoons, with evidence from INDOEX and the Pan Evaporation Effect showing reduced SSR, evaporation, and rainfall. The SAM and EAM, supporting ~3.4 billion people, are particularly vulnerable due to high aerosol loading and dense populations, with dimming potentially reducing rainfall by 5–20% during peak periods (1950s–1980s). The Australian monsoon faces lesser but notable risks. XX engagements  **Related Topics** [australia](/topic/australia) [asia](/topic/asia) [Post Link](https://x.com/MauckPaul20249/status/1948928154321465384)
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Paul Mauck @MauckPaul20249 on x 1173 followers
Created: 2025-07-26 02:07:35 UTC
..the Northern Hemisphere due to lower industrial aerosol emissions. However, transboundary aerosols from Southeast Asia (biomass burning) and occasional Northern Hemisphere transport reduced SSR by 1–3% per decade in northern Australia (Wild et al., 2005).
• Evaporation Trends: Pan evaporation declines were smaller in Australia (1–2 mm/year), but still evident, correlating with dimming from Indonesian haze events (e.g., 1997–1998 fires).
• Monsoon Variability: Studies (e.g., Rotstayn et al., 2007) suggest aerosols weakened the Australian monsoon in the 1970s–1980s, with rainfall 5–10% below average in wet seasons, though natural variability (ENSO) dominates.
• Mechanisms:
• Ocean Cooling: Dimming cools the Timor Sea, reducing evaporation and monsoon moisture, similar to INDOEX’s Indian Ocean effects.
• ITCZ Shift: Northern Hemisphere aerosol cooling shifts the ITCZ southward, potentially weakening the Australian monsoon’s northern extent.
• Local Aerosols: Biomass burning aerosols from Indonesia create regional dimming, suppressing convection.
• Vulnerability:
• Lower aerosol loading reduces dimming’s impact compared to SAM or EAM, but Indonesia’s growing emissions increase risk.
• Indigenous communities and small-scale farmers are vulnerable to rainfall disruptions, though population density is lower.
• Current Status: Brightening since the 1990s and low local aerosol emissions limit dimming’s current impact, but Southeast Asian haze remains a concern.
Broader Implications for Billions of People
• Food Security: Monsoon-dependent agriculture supports over XX% of global rice production. A XX% rainfall reduction from dimming could cut yields by 5–15%, risking hunger for millions, especially in India and Bangladesh.
• Water Resources: Dimming reduces monsoon rainfall and evaporation, straining reservoirs and groundwater. South Asia’s XXX billion people face heightened water scarcity risks.
• Economic Impact: Agriculture accounts for 15–20% of GDP in monsoon-reliant countries. Rainfall disruptions could destabilize economies, particularly in India and China.
• Social Risks: Rural communities, comprising 60–70% of South and East Asian populations, are least equipped to adapt to monsoon failures, potentially driving migration and conflict.
Uncertainties and Critical Perspective
• Data Gaps: Pan evaporation and SSR data are sparse in monsoon regions like West Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, limiting precise attribution. INDOEX’s focus on the SAM leaves gaps for other monsoons.
• Natural Variability: ENSO, AMO, and Indian Ocean Dipole strongly influence monsoon variability, complicating dimming’s role. For example, El Niño often overshadows aerosol effects in the Australian monsoon.
• Model Limitations: Climate models struggle to simulate monsoon-aerosol interactions, with some predicting increased rainfall from warming, challenging the dimming narrative.
• Regional Differences: Aerosol types (sulfates vs. black carbon) and sources (local vs. transboundary) vary, affecting dimming’s impact. South Asia’s ABCs are more potent than Australia’s sparse aerosols.
• Skeptical View: The establishment emphasizes aerosols as a primary driver, but land-use changes (deforestation) and natural cycles may contribute equally. Overstating dimming risks oversimplifying complex monsoon dynamics.
Conclusion
Global dimming likely affected major monsoon systems beyond the WAM, including the South Asian, East Asian, and North Australian monsoons, with evidence from INDOEX and the Pan Evaporation Effect showing reduced SSR, evaporation, and rainfall. The SAM and EAM, supporting ~3.4 billion people, are particularly vulnerable due to high aerosol loading and dense populations, with dimming potentially reducing rainfall by 5–20% during peak periods (1950s–1980s). The Australian monsoon faces lesser but notable risks.
XX engagements
