[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

![formerlypeter Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1924515051047940096.png) Aydin [@formerlypeter](/creator/twitter/formerlypeter) on x XX followers
Created: 2025-07-25 12:39:03 UTC

$CNC Deep Dive 🧵
Centene runs Medicaid & ACA plans for 28M+ members. thin margins, but sticky revenue. Priced for insolvency.

2025 is rough:
•$1.8B hit from ACA risk adjustment = ~–$2.75 EPS
•Medicaid costs up post-pandemic (sicker pool)
•Medicare stars still weak = no bonus $

Margins historically 2–3%. 2025 likely drops below. Can rebound if:
✅ ACA repricing hits in 2026
✅ States raise Medicaid rates
✅ MA quality improves

At 5x PE (assuming $7.25-$2.75 adjustment = $4.5) + leading ACA share, it’s in margin-of-safety land if they execute.

More value threads coming.


XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1948724677167513799/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[cnc](/topic/cnc)
[drops](/topic/drops)
[eps](/topic/eps)
[$18b](/topic/$18b)
[chapter 11](/topic/chapter-11)
[sticky](/topic/sticky)
[$cnc](/topic/$cnc)
[stocks healthcare](/topic/stocks-healthcare)

[Post Link](https://x.com/formerlypeter/status/1948724677167513799)