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![tradingjip Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1553700016161800194.png) Jip Molenaar [@tradingjip](/creator/twitter/tradingjip) on x 18.3K followers
Created: 2025-07-25 08:09:58 UTC

A big warning here for #Bitcoin 

The current daily high is marked as a low probability pivot and in the post below I explain why based on the time and distance of price. 

When I gather the time data for Bitcoin's daily candles over the last two years, we can see it flags a major warning: 
- XXXX% of the daily candles form the first pivot after 00:00 (UTC). 
Meaning that based on time, the current daily high (which is the first pivot, P1) only has a XXX% probability to hold for the remainder of today. 

Wehn I gather the distance data for Bitcoin's daily candles over the last two years, we can see it flags a major warning as well:
- XX% of daily candles have a bigger wick. 
Meaning that the current wick to the upside is extremely small and thus has a low probability to hold for the remainder of today.

Keep in mind that weekly statistics are still in favor of the bears, but personally I would not short today due to these warnings. 
If $BTC can reclaim the range low you could even look for intraday longs targeting that low probability high!

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwsDrA3XAAACtnP.png)

XXXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1948656963207758086/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[#bitcoin](/topic/#bitcoin)
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin)
[coins layer 1](/topic/coins-layer-1)
[coins bitcoin ecosystem](/topic/coins-bitcoin-ecosystem)
[coins pow](/topic/coins-pow)

[Post Link](https://x.com/tradingjip/status/1948656963207758086)