[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Gary Black [@garyblack00](/creator/twitter/garyblack00) on x 522K followers Created: 2025-07-25 00:34:42 UTC Some $TSLA bulls are hilarious. No worries if the new more affordable vehicle isn’t a new form factor - just cut costs and price and make it another Model Y trim and it will sell like hotcakes. Too bad any new volume will cannibalize higher-priced Model Y trims rather than add incremental volume. Remember what happened in 2023-2024 when TSLA cut prices: Volumes stagnated as competitors all matched the price cuts, avg price per unit sank 15-20% and earnings were decimated. I know, let’s not confuse everyone with numbers. On autonomy, TSLA stock has performed poorly since the Austin robotaxi launch (TSLA -5.2%, NDX +7.4%), even before last night’s earnings disaster. The Austin robotaxi launch has been more Kabuki theater than actual launch. From the safety driver in the front passenger seat, armed with a kill switch on the door if the robotaxi got in trouble, to the hand selected social influencers who became the testimonial first riders, Austin has not been “selling fully autonomous rides” as promised on TSLA’s 1Q conference call - certainly not that can be leveraged to new markets at the flip of a switch, as was alluded. As even Elon acknowledged on the call last night, “[Tesla] will get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year” which is a far cry from the perception of immediacy used to describe how robotaxi would be rolled out nationally in prior calls. Finally, there’s the thorny issue of valuation which $TSLA uberbulls don’t even try to explain. Most high quality growth stocks ( $NVDA, $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META) trade at 1.8x-2.2x forward PEGs - forward P/E divided by 5-year forward EPS growth. $TSLA is off the charts at around 5x PEG (2025 P/E of 160x vs 2025-2030 EPS growth of XX% CGR. Now I’m not married to P/E ratios even when adjusted for growth. But with so many other high quality growth stories around where revs and earnings are actually rising by 15-20% per year rather than falling, I’d rather pass on TSLA until it finds its growth path again. XXXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [happened](/topic/happened) [$tsla](/topic/$tsla) [tesla](/topic/tesla) [stocks consumer cyclical](/topic/stocks-consumer-cyclical) [stocks bitcoin treasuries](/topic/stocks-bitcoin-treasuries) [Post Link](https://x.com/garyblack00/status/1948542391624872048)
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Gary Black @garyblack00 on x 522K followers
Created: 2025-07-25 00:34:42 UTC
Some $TSLA bulls are hilarious. No worries if the new more affordable vehicle isn’t a new form factor - just cut costs and price and make it another Model Y trim and it will sell like hotcakes. Too bad any new volume will cannibalize higher-priced Model Y trims rather than add incremental volume. Remember what happened in 2023-2024 when TSLA cut prices: Volumes stagnated as competitors all matched the price cuts, avg price per unit sank 15-20% and earnings were decimated. I know, let’s not confuse everyone with numbers.
On autonomy, TSLA stock has performed poorly since the Austin robotaxi launch (TSLA -5.2%, NDX +7.4%), even before last night’s earnings disaster. The Austin robotaxi launch has been more Kabuki theater than actual launch. From the safety driver in the front passenger seat, armed with a kill switch on the door if the robotaxi got in trouble, to the hand selected social influencers who became the testimonial first riders, Austin has not been “selling fully autonomous rides” as promised on TSLA’s 1Q conference call - certainly not that can be leveraged to new markets at the flip of a switch, as was alluded. As even Elon acknowledged on the call last night, “[Tesla] will get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year” which is a far cry from the perception of immediacy used to describe how robotaxi would be rolled out nationally in prior calls.
Finally, there’s the thorny issue of valuation which $TSLA uberbulls don’t even try to explain. Most high quality growth stocks ( $NVDA, $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META) trade at 1.8x-2.2x forward PEGs - forward P/E divided by 5-year forward EPS growth. $TSLA is off the charts at around 5x PEG (2025 P/E of 160x vs 2025-2030 EPS growth of XX% CGR. Now I’m not married to P/E ratios even when adjusted for growth. But with so many other high quality growth stories around where revs and earnings are actually rising by 15-20% per year rather than falling, I’d rather pass on TSLA until it finds its growth path again.
XXXXXXX engagements
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