[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ [@DimitryNakhla](/creator/twitter/DimitryNakhla) on x 14.6K followers Created: 2025-07-24 19:56:27 UTC A quality valuation analysis on $PYPL ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 14.90x โขAll-Time Mean: 28.63x โขNTM FCF Yield: XXXX% โขAll-Time Mean: XXXX% As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~92% MORE in earnings per share & ~66% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง *** Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $PYPL is a good business BALANCE SHEETโ โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $11.21B โขLong-Term Debt: $11.42B $PYPL has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 17x FFO Interest Coverage RETURN ON CAPITALโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX% RETURN ON EQUITYโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX% $PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business REVENUESโ โข2019: $17.77B โข2024E: $31.80B โขCAGR: XXXXX% FREE CASH FLOWโ โข2019: $3.37B โข2024: $6.77B โขCAGR: XXXXX% NORMALIZED EPSโ โข2019: $XXXX โข2024: $XXXX โขCAGR: XXXX% SHARE BUYBACKSโ โข2019 Shares Outstanding: $1.17B โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.02B By reducing its shares outstanding by 12.8%, $PYPL increased its EPS by XXXX% (assuming X growth) MARGINSโ โขLTM Gross Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Operating Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Net Income Margins: XXXX% ***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~92% MORE in EPS & ~66% MORE in FCF per share Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a XXXX% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (7.46%) required growth rate: 2025E: $XXXX (9.5% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $XXXX (10.7% YoY) 2027E: $XXXX (13.4% YoY) $PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $PYPL ends 2027 with $XXXX in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples 20x P/E: $127.80๐ต โฆ ~22.4% CAGR 19x P/E: $121.41๐ต โฆ ~19.9% CAGR 18x P/E: $115.02๐ต โฆ ~17.3% CAGR 17x P/E: $108.63๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >17x earnings multiple The ๐ isnโt a mean reversion in $PYPLโs multiple, but a modest increase (still below its historical average) - a reasonable and safe assumption Everyone wanted $PYPL when it traded 50x earnings, not many wanted it when it traded for 12x earnings โฏ๏ธ Thereโs STILL negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment is already being changed as management continues to make good progress I also wouldnโt bet against @acce who played an integral role in $INTU success โ buybacks at $INTU were timed exceptionally well & I believe Alex is timing $PYPL buybacks in a similar manner (will demonstrate in another post shortly) Today at $78๐ต $PYPL still appears to be a good consideration for investment (albeit, with some turnaround / competitive risks & a smaller margin of safety) ___ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ. ๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [pypl](/topic/pypl) [earnings per](/topic/earnings-per) [quarterly earnings](/topic/quarterly-earnings) [alltime](/topic/alltime) [$pypl](/topic/$pypl) [stocks financial services](/topic/stocks-financial-services) [Post Link](https://x.com/DimitryNakhla/status/1948472364632596590)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ @DimitryNakhla on x 14.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-24 19:56:27 UTC
A quality valuation analysis on $PYPL ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 14.90x โขAll-Time Mean: 28.63x
โขNTM FCF Yield: XXXX% โขAll-Time Mean: XXXX%
As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~92% MORE in earnings per share & ~66% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $PYPL is a good business
BALANCE SHEETโ โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $11.21B โขLong-Term Debt: $11.42B
$PYPL has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 17x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ โข2020: XXXX% โข2021: XXXX% โข2022: XXXX% โข2023: XXXX% โข2024: XXXX% โขLTM: XXXX%
$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ โข2019: $17.77B โข2024E: $31.80B โขCAGR: XXXXX%
FREE CASH FLOWโ โข2019: $3.37B โข2024: $6.77B โขCAGR: XXXXX%
NORMALIZED EPSโ โข2019: $XXXX โข2024: $XXXX โขCAGR: XXXX%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ โข2019 Shares Outstanding: $1.17B โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.02B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 12.8%, $PYPL increased its EPS by XXXX% (assuming X growth)
MARGINSโ โขLTM Gross Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Operating Margins: XXXX% โขLTM Net Income Margins: XXXX%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~92% MORE in EPS & ~66% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a XXXX% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (7.46%) required growth rate:
2025E: $XXXX (9.5% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $XXXX (10.7% YoY) 2027E: $XXXX (13.4% YoY)
$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $PYPL ends 2027 with $XXXX in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
20x P/E: $127.80๐ต โฆ ~22.4% CAGR
19x P/E: $121.41๐ต โฆ ~19.9% CAGR
18x P/E: $115.02๐ต โฆ ~17.3% CAGR
17x P/E: $108.63๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >17x earnings multiple
The ๐ isnโt a mean reversion in $PYPLโs multiple, but a modest increase (still below its historical average) - a reasonable and safe assumption
Everyone wanted $PYPL when it traded 50x earnings, not many wanted it when it traded for 12x earnings โฏ๏ธ
Thereโs STILL negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment is already being changed as management continues to make good progress
I also wouldnโt bet against @acce who played an integral role in $INTU success โ buybacks at $INTU were timed exceptionally well & I believe Alex is timing $PYPL buybacks in a similar manner (will demonstrate in another post shortly)
Today at $78๐ต $PYPL still appears to be a good consideration for investment (albeit, with some turnaround / competitive risks & a smaller margin of safety)
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics pypl earnings per quarterly earnings alltime $pypl stocks financial services