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![ManuelSamuel Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::121774846.png) Manuel Gomes Samuel [@ManuelSamuel](/creator/twitter/ManuelSamuel) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-23 17:16:18 UTC

Reply to @elerian:
Great question. Here's my take: odds of a déjà vu scenario? Not zero — but this year’s macro is surely less ambiguous.
• Inflation is stickier in services.
• Labor market’s cooling is real but gradual.
• AI‑led productivity is still warming up.
Unless markets wobble or credit cracks, a 50bps cut in September feels unlikely. More likely: a cautious 25bps or nothing at all. 

#FedWatch #Inflation #Macro #Geoeconomics #AI


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**Related Topics**
[productivity](/topic/productivity)
[inflation](/topic/inflation)
[macro](/topic/macro)
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