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![HayekAndKeynes Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::2939007435.png) The Long View [@HayekAndKeynes](/creator/twitter/HayekAndKeynes) on x 153.1K followers
Created: 2025-07-23 16:30:32 UTC

Just finished my London macro circuit… the most common themes are exactly what you’d expect…

1) Short USD (global overallocation)
2) Steepeners  (cuts + issuance) 
3) AI/Defense 

More subtle themes were 
1) China continues to dump excess capacity on Europe as US tariffs go up (autos/green energy)
2) Moderately more hawkish ECB as German stimulus is front loaded 
3) European PMs think Trump is crazy but at the same time are not worried about tariffs
4) Stimulus is a global phenomenon 
5) No concerns about recession risk

What to look for next year 
1) Brazil - elections + XX% real rates 
2) More BOJ hikes/stimulus


XXXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1948058158481518890/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[donald trump](/topic/donald-trump)
[loaded](/topic/loaded)
[german](/topic/german)
[coins energy](/topic/coins-energy)
[tariffs](/topic/tariffs)
[china](/topic/china)
[united states dollar](/topic/united-states-dollar)
[london](/topic/london)

[Post Link](https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1948058158481518890)