[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Mirage [@MirageWL8](/creator/twitter/MirageWL8) on x XXX followers Created: 2025-07-23 05:16:03 UTC I’m still not quite sure I understand the Tesla Robotaxi business model. If we think about profit per vehicle, it does it make economical sense for Tesla to operate a robotaxi network with their own cars? Say a model X cost $30k USD for COGS, and an Uber driver makes $1/km of revenue, you’ll need to drive 30000km to breakeven. But keep in mind not all 30000km will be paid. At least 1/3 likely will not be paid. So 10000km per 30000km will not be paid. Currently sitting at 40000km to breakeven on the cost of the car. They factor in operating costs: robotaxi service centre or shepherd, insurance, maintenance, supercharging. Chalk it up to be $3k/year, that would be another 4000km needed to be driven per year. This brings the total to 44000km to break even on the price of the car with optimistic estimates. Lifespan of a Tesla say it can drive XXXXXXX with XX% depreciation. Say you drive 300km/day which is XXXXXXX km/yr. So a robotaxi will be in service for just over X years. And in that X year span, it would take ~50000km driven to break even. I suppose that means at 200,000km, a robotaxi could theoretically make $150k in profit… in a very optimistic scenario. Pretty impressive Of course there will be a saturation point at which the public will not have the demand to support that many robotaxis. There is also the factor of, if you have to pay $1/km for a robotaxi vs an Uber driver. Would you choose the Robotaxi at the same price? I’d imagine Robotaxi would be close to $0.75/km and still maintain good elasticity. This would be closer to $110k profit over the span of 200k km It seems even if you have a permanent assisted shepherd who takes XX% of the revenue on a $/km basis, you would still have SWAG $50k profit over a 200k km span. I suppose the question will remain whether there is enough of a market to support an influx of Tesla robotaxi in that geographical region. You could argue FSD still doesn’t really work in snow, in morning fog, is likely to be geofenced for quite a long time. There’s also very real reputation risk for negative events. For example if somebody dies or is seriously injured, or people purposely sabotage them or if it’s really just not competitive against a real driver. It seems as though the profit margin allows significant room for error. Say Tesla makes XX% margins on their vehicles which means they really only make $5k per vehicle sold, then a model X would need to only drive about XXXXXX to break even on the profit of just selling the vehicle. This means any Tesla driving robotaxis past 70,000km is likely pure profit above selling the actual car itself. Ok, if it actually works, then yes, economics massively support robotaxis in the event drivers join the robotaxi network or if Tesla uses its own vehicles. Obviously margins decrease with more expensive models and it’s still hard to understand how saturated the market will be. For things like robotaxis, consumers have high elasticity to price and comfort if Tesla can prove it’s robotaxi are safe $TSLA XX engagements  **Related Topics** [$1km](/topic/$1km) [united states dollar](/topic/united-states-dollar) [$30k](/topic/$30k) [tesla](/topic/tesla) [stocks consumer cyclical](/topic/stocks-consumer-cyclical) [stocks bitcoin treasuries](/topic/stocks-bitcoin-treasuries) [$uber](/topic/$uber) [stocks technology](/topic/stocks-technology) [Post Link](https://x.com/MirageWL8/status/1947888416919851435)
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Mirage @MirageWL8 on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-23 05:16:03 UTC
I’m still not quite sure I understand the Tesla Robotaxi business model.
If we think about profit per vehicle, it does it make economical sense for Tesla to operate a robotaxi network with their own cars?
Say a model X cost $30k USD for COGS, and an Uber driver makes $1/km of revenue, you’ll need to drive 30000km to breakeven. But keep in mind not all 30000km will be paid. At least 1/3 likely will not be paid. So 10000km per 30000km will not be paid. Currently sitting at 40000km to breakeven on the cost of the car.
They factor in operating costs: robotaxi service centre or shepherd, insurance, maintenance, supercharging. Chalk it up to be $3k/year, that would be another 4000km needed to be driven per year. This brings the total to 44000km to break even on the price of the car with optimistic estimates.
Lifespan of a Tesla say it can drive XXXXXXX with XX% depreciation. Say you drive 300km/day which is XXXXXXX km/yr. So a robotaxi will be in service for just over X years. And in that X year span, it would take ~50000km driven to break even.
I suppose that means at 200,000km, a robotaxi could theoretically make $150k in profit… in a very optimistic scenario.
Pretty impressive
Of course there will be a saturation point at which the public will not have the demand to support that many robotaxis. There is also the factor of, if you have to pay $1/km for a robotaxi vs an Uber driver. Would you choose the Robotaxi at the same price? I’d imagine Robotaxi would be close to $0.75/km and still maintain good elasticity. This would be closer to $110k profit over the span of 200k km
It seems even if you have a permanent assisted shepherd who takes XX% of the revenue on a $/km basis, you would still have SWAG $50k profit over a 200k km span.
I suppose the question will remain whether there is enough of a market to support an influx of Tesla robotaxi in that geographical region.
You could argue FSD still doesn’t really work in snow, in morning fog, is likely to be geofenced for quite a long time. There’s also very real reputation risk for negative events. For example if somebody dies or is seriously injured, or people purposely sabotage them or if it’s really just not competitive against a real driver.
It seems as though the profit margin allows significant room for error. Say Tesla makes XX% margins on their vehicles which means they really only make $5k per vehicle sold, then a model X would need to only drive about XXXXXX to break even on the profit of just selling the vehicle. This means any Tesla driving robotaxis past 70,000km is likely pure profit above selling the actual car itself.
Ok, if it actually works, then yes, economics massively support robotaxis in the event drivers join the robotaxi network or if Tesla uses its own vehicles.
Obviously margins decrease with more expensive models and it’s still hard to understand how saturated the market will be. For things like robotaxis, consumers have high elasticity to price and comfort if Tesla can prove it’s robotaxi are safe
$TSLA
XX engagements
Related Topics $1km united states dollar $30k tesla stocks consumer cyclical stocks bitcoin treasuries $uber stocks technology