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![PendleIntern Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1649260860836298755.png) Pendle Intern [@PendleIntern](/creator/twitter/PendleIntern) on x 19.2K followers
Created: 2025-07-23 01:51:36 UTC

ICYMI $SPK has MASSIVELY repriced with a WoW gain of +194%.

This makes the near-dated YT-USDS pool EXTREMELY interesting as a high delta play on $SPK price action. With maturity in our sights, its also VERY straight forward to calculate end points AND breakeven threshold for 🪂 allocation.

Let's take a look 👇
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Step 1: Calculating YT-USDS' cost basis per point

The current USDS pool prices Implied Yield at XXXX% APY, meaning $X gets you ~$242 of principal exposure.
Each $ is farming XX $SPK points PER DAY which adds up to ~120k points at 🪂 date since snapshot is taken on XX August as per @sparkdotfi's docs.

This gives us our cost basis per $SPK point ($/Point).
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Step 2: Calculating Total Points @ 🪂 Date

Kudos to Spark for maintaining real time point tracking which gives us the basis for Current Points.
From there, we know there's ~$230m in @pendle_fi SY-USDS contract that's earning XX Points/$/day.

After applying a XX% buffer (assuming XXX% of deposits are receiving the XX% referral boost), intern conservatively predicts ~580b $SPK points at maturity.
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Step 3: Calculating Breakeven 🪂 Allocation

We know:
 👉 Some % of $SPK supply will go to $SPK point 
 👉 Est. number of  $SPK points at 🪂 date.

What we don't know is:
👉 $SPK's FDV at maturity
👉 🪂 Allocation to be given to $SPK Points

What I can do is present the BREAKEVEN 🪂 (%) based on different $SPK FDVs:
📌 300m FDV → XXXX% 🪂
📌 600m FDV → XXXX% 🪂
📌 900m FDV → XXXX% 🪂

Based on your expectation of $SPK's FDV and the actual 🪂 allocation to point holders, you can make a good assessment of the RoI for buying YTs!
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Fun Notes:

This is one of the first cases where the 🪂 is fully concentrated to Pendle users, meaning RoI of said 🪂 is inversely related to USDS supply on Pendle.
With USDS supply settling, it ultimately means MORE 🪂 per $ - perhaps more so than my original projections 🧐
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Now of course, intern will NEVER tell you what to buy and when to buy it. It's now up to you to:
X. Predict $SPK FDV
X. Predict 🪂 Allocation
X. Win

It's up to you now little guy.

NFA NLA NMA MDMA

Pendiddler

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**Related Topics**
[spk](/topic/spk)
[threshold](/topic/threshold)
[delta](/topic/delta)
[$spk](/topic/$spk)

[Post Link](https://x.com/PendleIntern/status/1947836968051871798)