[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  BowTiedBiotech 🧪🔬🧬 [@BowTiedBiotech](/creator/twitter/BowTiedBiotech) on x 19.7K followers Created: 2025-07-23 00:11:43 UTC 3/ What it Means for $ABVX if the Arena Pattern Repeats ✅ If ABTECT-1/2 Induction → ABX464-107 Maintenance tracks like ELEVATE: Obefazimod’s induction looks very Arena-like: 🔹∆13.4–19.3% CR @ wk-8 (ABTECT-1/2) 🔹High-risk pop: ~47% prior adv therapy, incl. JAK-fails 🔹Very clean safety: no new sigs, well tolerated BUT… 🟠 Risk: Maintenance shows blunted remission delta 🔹PBO response could rise, compressing efficacy gap 🔹Subgroups (JAK-fail) may revert to refractory baseline 🔹Prior 5-ASA, steroid, or biologic/JAK exposure may not hold 8w gains through 44w If that happens: 💰 Valuation Implication Peak sales view shifts down: 🔹From $3B+ → ~$1.5–2B ceiling 🔹Used as adjunct, not disruptor rNPV falls: 🔹$1.5B × 4× = $6B 🔹50% haircut = $3B fair value 🔹Stock re-rates to ~$15–20/sh range (5× upside, not 15×) 🏭 Commercial Role 🔹Obefazimod still launches 🔹Gets share post-5ASA/steroids 🔹Competes w/ etrasimod, ozanimod, filgotinib 🔹But doesn't dominate oral 1L or redefine the space 🧾 M&A Path 🔹Still a viable target $GSK $AMGN $MRK 🔹Pricing muted unless new durability or label edge 🔹 $PFE -style $6–7B b/o > likely vs. $10B+ blowout 🧠 Takeaway If ABVX becomes Arena XXX (e.g., solid induction, softer maintenance) it’ll still be a successful drug, just not a category-redefining one. The market’s bar for UC orals is high: durability, subgroup resilience, and clean labels must all align. ABTECT’s final act (Q2-26) is the difference between a very good asset… and a transformational one. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [delta](/topic/delta) [arena](/topic/arena) [$abvx](/topic/$abvx) [Post Link](https://x.com/BowTiedBiotech/status/1947811830220386427)
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BowTiedBiotech 🧪🔬🧬 @BowTiedBiotech on x 19.7K followers
Created: 2025-07-23 00:11:43 UTC
3/ What it Means for $ABVX if the Arena Pattern Repeats
✅ If ABTECT-1/2 Induction → ABX464-107 Maintenance tracks like ELEVATE:
Obefazimod’s induction looks very Arena-like: 🔹∆13.4–19.3% CR @ wk-8 (ABTECT-1/2) 🔹High-risk pop: ~47% prior adv therapy, incl. JAK-fails 🔹Very clean safety: no new sigs, well tolerated
BUT…
🟠 Risk: Maintenance shows blunted remission delta
🔹PBO response could rise, compressing efficacy gap 🔹Subgroups (JAK-fail) may revert to refractory baseline 🔹Prior 5-ASA, steroid, or biologic/JAK exposure may not hold 8w gains through 44w
If that happens: 💰 Valuation Implication
Peak sales view shifts down: 🔹From $3B+ → ~$1.5–2B ceiling 🔹Used as adjunct, not disruptor
rNPV falls: 🔹$1.5B × 4× = $6B 🔹50% haircut = $3B fair value 🔹Stock re-rates to ~$15–20/sh range (5× upside, not 15×)
🏭 Commercial Role 🔹Obefazimod still launches 🔹Gets share post-5ASA/steroids 🔹Competes w/ etrasimod, ozanimod, filgotinib 🔹But doesn't dominate oral 1L or redefine the space
🧾 M&A Path 🔹Still a viable target $GSK $AMGN $MRK 🔹Pricing muted unless new durability or label edge 🔹 $PFE -style $6–7B b/o > likely vs. $10B+ blowout
🧠 Takeaway If ABVX becomes Arena XXX (e.g., solid induction, softer maintenance) it’ll still be a successful drug, just not a category-redefining one.
The market’s bar for UC orals is high: durability, subgroup resilience, and clean labels must all align.
ABTECT’s final act (Q2-26) is the difference between a very good asset… and a transformational one.
XXXXX engagements
