[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  AI [@nonewthing](/creator/twitter/nonewthing) on x 149.4K followers Created: 2025-07-22 21:12:05 UTC Gyokeres—a Game Changer? Part X In the first part, we went through a few background concepts: —Football is a continuous-time sport (relevance is determined by long, sustained periods of winning) —Bad processes can have good results, but it is worse in the long-term because it justifies keeping a bad process ongoing. —Outcomes are not just influenced by having a good process (internal conditions) but also what others are doing around you (external conditions). —The long-term relevance of any organization is determined by its capacity to recognize both its internal and external conditions and adjust accordingly. —The capacity and responsibility to change a process rests with leadership. In football, leadership is often a two-man partnership between the SD and manager. —The SD and manager at a very high level are often responsible for replacing the other. This is because both are often the smartest at the club concerning football matters. (Jurgen Klopp, Jorg Schmadtke, Michael Edwards, Arne Slot) Ordinarily, the average tenure of an elite level manager is X years. For SDs it’s about X years. You reasonably expect SDs to outlast managers. Therefore, the dynamic between a SD and the manager is one of the most vital in determining the success of a football club in their life cycle. At Arsenal, Arteta has been around for XXX years while Andrea Berta has just joined. Even if Arteta won everything going forward, you still reasonably expect Berta to outlast him and appoint a replacement. In other words, Andrea Berta effectively holds the future of Arsenal in his hands. Now, we know that Viktor Gyokeres is an Andrea Berta target. David Ornstein effectively name-dropped him as the driver of Gyokeres as a target almost immediately after his appointment as SD. Therefore, through Gyokeres, we can approximate the big moves Berta will make in the future for Arsenal. A bad process in recruiting big player targets can replicate itself in recruiting a managerial appointment. SDs with great processes tend to do well in both coaching and player recruitment: Michael Edwards at Liverpool, Roberto Olabe at Sociedad, Simon Rolfes at Leverkusen. Last season, —Kai Havertz hit XXXX npxG p90 for Arsenal (70th percentile of all forwards), XXX shots p90 (60th percentile). This is clearly above average but not absolutely elite production. —He was also above average in almost all other categories: link play, aerials, passing, carries. In other words, Arsenal had an extremely high floor forward but not a system-breaker. There are only three possible ways to improve this via recruitment: —Sign a ceiling breaker (Isak) at big cost —Sign a potential ceiling breaker (Sesko) at decent cost —Sign a ceiling breaker (Barcola) at another position One thing is clear about Viktor Gyokeres—he does not fit into any of these X categories. He is at XXXX npXG and X shots p90, which would place him at around 95th percentile in Europe. The big embargo to that is how he translates to the Premier League. Here is a list of strikers from Portugal that could not translate Mehdi Taremi Carlos Vinicius Jackson Martinez Ricky van Wolfswinkel Islam Slimani Bas Dost Mario Hardel Darwin Nunez Goncalo Ramos In the Championship, Gyokeres’ npxG average is 0.41, which is about same as Havertz. A key distinction to Havertz is that Gyokeres’ average shot distance is consistently below 50th percentile across his Championship and European campaigns while his progressive carries are high. Havertz? Consistently above 90th percentile at Arsenal. Meanwhile Gyokeres has some of the best carry numbers for CFs in Europe + Championship. Overall, you have a clear picture: Havertz is a targetman while Gyokeres is a transition shooter. There is a 4th option to improve via recruitment —Change the playing style to suit transition players This is the only reasonable explanation, especially if you consider Arsenal signing Madueke. But is this the right approach or player fit?  XXXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [longterm](/topic/longterm) [changer](/topic/changer) [coins ai](/topic/coins-ai) [Post Link](https://x.com/nonewthing/status/1947766624515481647)
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AI @nonewthing on x 149.4K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 21:12:05 UTC
Gyokeres—a Game Changer? Part X
In the first part, we went through a few background concepts:
—Football is a continuous-time sport (relevance is determined by long, sustained periods of winning)
—Bad processes can have good results, but it is worse in the long-term because it justifies keeping a bad process ongoing.
—Outcomes are not just influenced by having a good process (internal conditions) but also what others are doing around you (external conditions).
—The long-term relevance of any organization is determined by its capacity to recognize both its internal and external conditions and adjust accordingly.
—The capacity and responsibility to change a process rests with leadership. In football, leadership is often a two-man partnership between the SD and manager.
—The SD and manager at a very high level are often responsible for replacing the other. This is because both are often the smartest at the club concerning football matters. (Jurgen Klopp, Jorg Schmadtke, Michael Edwards, Arne Slot)
Ordinarily, the average tenure of an elite level manager is X years. For SDs it’s about X years. You reasonably expect SDs to outlast managers.
Therefore, the dynamic between a SD and the manager is one of the most vital in determining the success of a football club in their life cycle.
At Arsenal, Arteta has been around for XXX years while Andrea Berta has just joined. Even if Arteta won everything going forward, you still reasonably expect Berta to outlast him and appoint a replacement.
In other words, Andrea Berta effectively holds the future of Arsenal in his hands.
Now, we know that Viktor Gyokeres is an Andrea Berta target. David Ornstein effectively name-dropped him as the driver of Gyokeres as a target almost immediately after his appointment as SD.
Therefore, through Gyokeres, we can approximate the big moves Berta will make in the future for Arsenal. A bad process in recruiting big player targets can replicate itself in recruiting a managerial appointment.
SDs with great processes tend to do well in both coaching and player recruitment: Michael Edwards at Liverpool, Roberto Olabe at Sociedad, Simon Rolfes at Leverkusen.
Last season,
—Kai Havertz hit XXXX npxG p90 for Arsenal (70th percentile of all forwards), XXX shots p90 (60th percentile).
This is clearly above average but not absolutely elite production.
—He was also above average in almost all other categories: link play, aerials, passing, carries.
In other words, Arsenal had an extremely high floor forward but not a system-breaker.
There are only three possible ways to improve this via recruitment:
—Sign a ceiling breaker (Isak) at big cost —Sign a potential ceiling breaker (Sesko) at decent cost —Sign a ceiling breaker (Barcola) at another position
One thing is clear about Viktor Gyokeres—he does not fit into any of these X categories.
He is at XXXX npXG and X shots p90, which would place him at around 95th percentile in Europe.
The big embargo to that is how he translates to the Premier League. Here is a list of strikers from Portugal that could not translate
Mehdi Taremi Carlos Vinicius Jackson Martinez Ricky van Wolfswinkel Islam Slimani Bas Dost Mario Hardel Darwin Nunez Goncalo Ramos
In the Championship, Gyokeres’ npxG average is 0.41, which is about same as Havertz.
A key distinction to Havertz is that Gyokeres’ average shot distance is consistently below 50th percentile across his Championship and European campaigns while his progressive carries are high.
Havertz? Consistently above 90th percentile at Arsenal.
Meanwhile Gyokeres has some of the best carry numbers for CFs in Europe + Championship.
Overall, you have a clear picture: Havertz is a targetman while Gyokeres is a transition shooter.
There is a 4th option to improve via recruitment
—Change the playing style to suit transition players
This is the only reasonable explanation, especially if you consider Arsenal signing Madueke.
But is this the right approach or player fit?
XXXXXXX engagements
