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![joinearlybird Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1429132199240994818.png) Earlybird [@joinearlybird](/creator/twitter/joinearlybird) on x 93.2K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 13:27:55 UTC

🧵 OpenAI: Long or Short?

$300B+ valuation. 800M users. $5B in losses.
Still the AI king, or peaking too early?

Let’s break down the updates, numbers, drama, and what’s priced in 👇

🚀 Product Updates (2025 so far):
GPT-4.5 (Feb)
Image API (April)
o3 & o4-mini (Apr/June)
ChatGPT Agent (July)

💰 Funding:
Raised $40B in March at $300B post (SoftBank + syndicate).
Earlier talks valued it higher ($340B pre).
Capital for compute + AGI race.

📈 Financials:
$10B run-rate revenue (June)
Projecting $12.7B in 2025
Lost $5B in 2024
Not cash-flow positive till 2029
Aiming for $125B revenue by then

🫢 The Drama:
Ex-CTO Mira Murati left for $2B startup
Meta poaching top talent w/ $100M offers
Company-wide burnout break
AGI hype might be leverage vs. Microsoft

TLDR:
OpenAI leads in AI, but burns cash like crazy.
Long on dominance.
Short on valuation holding.
What’s your bet?

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwdvTNIWkAA0Wpi.png)

XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1947649810896425218/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[$9434t](/topic/$9434t)
[$40b](/topic/$40b)
[o3](/topic/o3)
[coins ai](/topic/coins-ai)
[losses](/topic/losses)
[$5b](/topic/$5b)
[$300b](/topic/$300b)
[open ai](/topic/open-ai)

[Post Link](https://x.com/joinearlybird/status/1947649810896425218)