[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Tyler Neville [@Tyler_Neville_](/creator/twitter/Tyler_Neville_) on x 10.9K followers Created: 2025-07-22 10:24:54 UTC There is a major crisis coming down the pipe.. What do you think the Fed response is going to be when ~$1 Trillion of CRE loans come due along with having to roll $X trillion of US treasury debt?! @muddywatersre This is why I say, “I’m so bearish, I’m bullish.” The boomers recycled XX years of pension/endowment/insurance money into handful of “short volatility” bond like proxies and the centralized the asset management industry which I like to refer to as “systematic communism.” In their defense, there were very few markets you could continuously reinvest rising taxes/rising tuition/rising insurance premiums into safely. It was a C.Y.A. Policy for public pension/endowment/insurance management & their C.Y.A. liability consultants and now it’s coming home to roost. The irony is this centralization happened because the govt wanted to take the liability of retirement out of the privatized citizen’s hands. Public incentives end up trumping those of the very people they are working for. The mills of the gods grind slowly and now it’s time to pay the piper. (If the last XX years were categorized by liberal centralizing collectivist policies, the next XX years we’ll like see that pendulum swing to more conservative decentralized policies in response. Bitcoin sits at the intersection of those political systems.) Demographics and technology eventually take their pound of flesh and now a lot of these bond-like investments have become obsolete like Office CRE (especially in poorly run jurisdictions like Chicago). This is the real reason @SecScottBessent and @pulte and @realDonaldTrump roasting the @federal reserve. They need rates lower to delever the imbalances of the US economy. They are being proactive to stop an oncoming freight train of defaults in CRE and 3rd world country like currency devaluation while Jerome Powell stays true to the delayed technocrat data. @NickTimiraos We’ll see how it shakes out. It’s more important than ever to watch global sovereign bond yields and credit spreads. The answer to all assets lies in how the gov’t decides to bail out those assets. Right now- credit spreads are way lower and the market is anticipating a horde of easing as priced by generationally low spreads and low VIX (Stock volatility). The market is pricing in some form of Yield Curve Control. @crossbordercap This is why I currently call the market a political utility and Ponzi scheme, but I’m aware that can change fast. @agnostoxxx It’s why politics/geopolitics is more important than ever to watch. @RaoulGMI @DrPippaM @SantiagoAuFund The market can still rise if we get a global peace dividend with China, Russia, Israel & The Middle East and disinflationary forces continue allowing the Fed to continue easing. But those things can also be derailed in a 4th—>1st turning transition. Make no mistake tho- The frontier markets will end up outperforming the old sclerotic companies, especially if we end up getting and AI productivity boom. It’s much harder to adapt to the new world when you have bureaucratic red tape than swift leadership. Those firms run with excellent leadership should adapt and survive @LeifBabin . XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [rates](/topic/rates) [$116b](/topic/$116b) [$200300b](/topic/$200300b) [$957b](/topic/$957b) [volatility](/topic/volatility) [money](/topic/money) [recycled](/topic/recycled) [boomers](/topic/boomers) [Post Link](https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_/status/1947603756381503570)
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Tyler Neville @Tyler_Neville_ on x 10.9K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 10:24:54 UTC
There is a major crisis coming down the pipe..
What do you think the Fed response is going to be when ~$1 Trillion of CRE loans come due along with having to roll $X trillion of US treasury debt?! @muddywatersre
This is why I say, “I’m so bearish, I’m bullish.”
The boomers recycled XX years of pension/endowment/insurance money into handful of “short volatility” bond like proxies and the centralized the asset management industry which I like to refer to as “systematic communism.”
In their defense, there were very few markets you could continuously reinvest rising taxes/rising tuition/rising insurance premiums into safely. It was a C.Y.A. Policy for public pension/endowment/insurance management & their C.Y.A. liability consultants and now it’s coming home to roost.
The irony is this centralization happened because the govt wanted to take the liability of retirement out of the privatized citizen’s hands. Public incentives end up trumping those of the very people they are working for.
The mills of the gods grind slowly and now it’s time to pay the piper.
(If the last XX years were categorized by liberal centralizing collectivist policies, the next XX years we’ll like see that pendulum swing to more conservative decentralized policies in response. Bitcoin sits at the intersection of those political systems.)
Demographics and technology eventually take their pound of flesh and now a lot of these bond-like investments have become obsolete like Office CRE (especially in poorly run jurisdictions like Chicago).
This is the real reason @SecScottBessent and @pulte and @realDonaldTrump roasting the @federal reserve. They need rates lower to delever the imbalances of the US economy.
They are being proactive to stop an oncoming freight train of defaults in CRE and 3rd world country like currency devaluation while Jerome Powell stays true to the delayed technocrat data. @NickTimiraos
We’ll see how it shakes out. It’s more important than ever to watch global sovereign bond yields and credit spreads.
The answer to all assets lies in how the gov’t decides to bail out those assets.
Right now- credit spreads are way lower and the market is anticipating a horde of easing as priced by generationally low spreads and low VIX (Stock volatility). The market is pricing in some form of Yield Curve Control. @crossbordercap
This is why I currently call the market a political utility and Ponzi scheme, but I’m aware that can change fast. @agnostoxxx
It’s why politics/geopolitics is more important than ever to watch. @RaoulGMI @DrPippaM @SantiagoAuFund
The market can still rise if we get a global peace dividend with China, Russia, Israel & The Middle East and disinflationary forces continue allowing the Fed to continue easing.
But those things can also be derailed in a 4th—>1st turning transition.
Make no mistake tho- The frontier markets will end up outperforming the old sclerotic companies, especially if we end up getting and AI productivity boom. It’s much harder to adapt to the new world when you have bureaucratic red tape than swift leadership.
Those firms run with excellent leadership should adapt and survive @LeifBabin .
XXXXXX engagements
Related Topics rates $116b $200300b $957b volatility money recycled boomers