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![J_ReinerView Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1920428561464504324.png) Julian Reiner [@J_ReinerView](/creator/twitter/J_ReinerView) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-22 03:17:58 UTC

Hot take: Tariffs ≠ inflation. April ’25 saw U.S.–China rates spike to 145%/125%. CPI held flat. Why? Global supply chains adapt. Low-tariff nations outcompete. Tariffs shift trade, not price levels.

• Trade flows reallocate. Prices follow competition, not policy
• Fed balance sheet ($900B→$9T) tracks CPI better than tariff moves
• Tariffs raise costs only if substitution fails or producers gouge
• Real inflation risk = monetary overhang + sticky domestic pricing


XX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1947496314763157659/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[$9t](/topic/$9t)
[$900b](/topic/$900b)
[balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet)
[inflation](/topic/inflation)
[tariffs](/topic/tariffs)

[Post Link](https://x.com/J_ReinerView/status/1947496314763157659)