[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Jukan [@Jukanlosreve](/creator/twitter/Jukanlosreve) on x 22.9K followers Created: 2025-07-22 01:39:20 UTC Barclays: "After Mid-August, No Later Than September" U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs Could Have a Larger-Than-Expected Impact Barclays stated in its latest research report that the timing for the imposition of U.S. Section XXX semiconductor tariffs is essentially confirmed. The most likely period is after mid-August, and it is not expected to be later than September. Barclays analysts, including Simon Coles, pointed out that while the market may currently hold optimistic expectations for a flat XX% tariff, the actual tariff rate could adopt a gradual model, potentially having a larger impact than anticipated. Barclays also emphasized that AI chips and semiconductor equipment face the risk of tariffs, and these tariffs will have a significant impact on chip demand from the second half of 2025 through 2026. Tariff Implementation Schedule Essentially Confirmed According to previous media reports, President Donald Trump announced a national security trade investigation into the semiconductor industry on the 13th. He posted on social media, "In the upcoming national security trade investigation, we will focus on semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain." Barclays noted that under the legal procedures of Section XXX of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the Department of Commerce must submit an investigation report to the president within XXX days. The president then has XX days to decide on tariff measures and XX days to implement them. August XX is the deadline for the 90-day U.S.-China truce agreement. The two countries announced a halt to some tariffs on May 12, and this truce agreement expires on August XX. Barclays pointed out that given the key timeline, the U.S.-China tariff suspension is expected to be extended when it expires on August XX. Statements from the President and the Secretary of Commerce suggest that the national security trade investigation report on the semiconductor industry could be ready by the end of this month. However, they also implied it would proceed after the pharmaceutical industry investigation, which is considered a priority. "Considering the current timeline, it is most likely that the semiconductor industry tariffs will be implemented after mid-August, and without other delaying factors, it will not be later than September." Furthermore, Barclays warned that unlike "reciprocal tariffs," semiconductor tariffs under Section XXX are likely to be implemented continuously once announced. Tariff Rate Expectations: XX% Could Be Just the Starting Point While the market's general expectation of a uniform XX% tariff rate is based on previous Section XXX cases, Barclays analysts believe this assumption may be too optimistic and see two other possible tariff models: X. Gradual Tariff Model: Considering the high cost of building wafer fabs in the U.S., a XX% tariff alone may be insufficient to drive the return of manufacturing. The government could adopt a phased tariff, starting with a lower initial rate that gradually increases over time, providing the industry with a buffer period to adjust its supply chains. This model has already been applied in the auto industry. X. Differentiated Rates: Similar to the implementation of Section XXX on the steel industry, different tariff rates could be applied to different countries. A Larger-Than-Expected Impact Barclays views Section XXX as a significant risk for the semiconductor industry, with its impact potentially exceeding market expectations. This includes:| - Equipment Industry Risk: Even semiconductor equipment could face phased tariffs (initially 0%, then gradually increasing), which contradicts previous market expectations of an exemption. - AI Chip Uncertainty: While the market widely expects AI semiconductors to be exempt, analysts believe this sector also faces tariff risks. - Timing of Demand Shock: The implementation of tariffs will have a significant negative impact on semiconductor demand in the second half of 2025 and 2026, and the industry must prepare for potential adjustments. - Tariff Stacking Effect: Section XXX tariffs are not imposed on top of "reciprocal tariffs." Only the declared value of the semiconductor portion of a product will face the industry tariff, while the non-semiconductor portion will still be subject to reciprocal tariffs. Industry Giants State Their Positions: A Flood of Requests to Exempt Equipment and Materials The Barclays report also noted that public comments submitted by major semiconductor companies to the Department of Commerce have a significant influence. - Texas Instruments emphasized that U.S.-made chips must maintain global competitiveness and that the government should promote policies that support investment in U.S. manufacturing and encourage demand for American chips across all industries. - TSMC pointed out that imposing tariffs on semiconductor equipment would increase costs and delay the progress of its U.S. wafer fab projects. It also stated that any tariffs or restrictive measures should provide a realistic adjustment period for companies and investors who have committed to investing in chip manufacturing within the U.S. - Intel also supported protecting U.S. chip manufacturers and called for flexibility regarding semiconductor equipment and materials. XXXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) [$0981hk](/topic/$0981hk) [$barcl](/topic/$barcl) [Post Link](https://x.com/Jukanlosreve/status/1947471491421114663)
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Jukan @Jukanlosreve on x 22.9K followers
Created: 2025-07-22 01:39:20 UTC
Barclays: "After Mid-August, No Later Than September" U.S. Semiconductor Tariffs Could Have a Larger-Than-Expected Impact
Barclays stated in its latest research report that the timing for the imposition of U.S. Section XXX semiconductor tariffs is essentially confirmed. The most likely period is after mid-August, and it is not expected to be later than September.
Barclays analysts, including Simon Coles, pointed out that while the market may currently hold optimistic expectations for a flat XX% tariff, the actual tariff rate could adopt a gradual model, potentially having a larger impact than anticipated.
Barclays also emphasized that AI chips and semiconductor equipment face the risk of tariffs, and these tariffs will have a significant impact on chip demand from the second half of 2025 through 2026.
Tariff Implementation Schedule Essentially Confirmed
According to previous media reports, President Donald Trump announced a national security trade investigation into the semiconductor industry on the 13th. He posted on social media, "In the upcoming national security trade investigation, we will focus on semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain."
Barclays noted that under the legal procedures of Section XXX of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the Department of Commerce must submit an investigation report to the president within XXX days. The president then has XX days to decide on tariff measures and XX days to implement them.
August XX is the deadline for the 90-day U.S.-China truce agreement. The two countries announced a halt to some tariffs on May 12, and this truce agreement expires on August XX. Barclays pointed out that given the key timeline, the U.S.-China tariff suspension is expected to be extended when it expires on August XX.
Statements from the President and the Secretary of Commerce suggest that the national security trade investigation report on the semiconductor industry could be ready by the end of this month. However, they also implied it would proceed after the pharmaceutical industry investigation, which is considered a priority.
"Considering the current timeline, it is most likely that the semiconductor industry tariffs will be implemented after mid-August, and without other delaying factors, it will not be later than September."
Furthermore, Barclays warned that unlike "reciprocal tariffs," semiconductor tariffs under Section XXX are likely to be implemented continuously once announced.
Tariff Rate Expectations: XX% Could Be Just the Starting Point
While the market's general expectation of a uniform XX% tariff rate is based on previous Section XXX cases, Barclays analysts believe this assumption may be too optimistic and see two other possible tariff models:
X. Gradual Tariff Model: Considering the high cost of building wafer fabs in the U.S., a XX% tariff alone may be insufficient to drive the return of manufacturing. The government could adopt a phased tariff, starting with a lower initial rate that gradually increases over time, providing the industry with a buffer period to adjust its supply chains. This model has already been applied in the auto industry.
X. Differentiated Rates: Similar to the implementation of Section XXX on the steel industry, different tariff rates could be applied to different countries.
A Larger-Than-Expected Impact
Barclays views Section XXX as a significant risk for the semiconductor industry, with its impact potentially exceeding market expectations. This includes:|
Equipment Industry Risk: Even semiconductor equipment could face phased tariffs (initially 0%, then gradually increasing), which contradicts previous market expectations of an exemption.
AI Chip Uncertainty: While the market widely expects AI semiconductors to be exempt, analysts believe this sector also faces tariff risks.
Timing of Demand Shock: The implementation of tariffs will have a significant negative impact on semiconductor demand in the second half of 2025 and 2026, and the industry must prepare for potential adjustments.
Tariff Stacking Effect: Section XXX tariffs are not imposed on top of "reciprocal tariffs." Only the declared value of the semiconductor portion of a product will face the industry tariff, while the non-semiconductor portion will still be subject to reciprocal tariffs.
Industry Giants State Their Positions: A Flood of Requests to Exempt Equipment and Materials
The Barclays report also noted that public comments submitted by major semiconductor companies to the Department of Commerce have a significant influence.
Texas Instruments emphasized that U.S.-made chips must maintain global competitiveness and that the government should promote policies that support investment in U.S. manufacturing and encourage demand for American chips across all industries.
TSMC pointed out that imposing tariffs on semiconductor equipment would increase costs and delay the progress of its U.S. wafer fab projects. It also stated that any tariffs or restrictive measures should provide a realistic adjustment period for companies and investors who have committed to investing in chip manufacturing within the U.S.
Intel also supported protecting U.S. chip manufacturers and called for flexibility regarding semiconductor equipment and materials.
XXXXXX engagements
