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 FatumOpes [@D27357](/creator/twitter/D27357) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-21 21:29:40 UTC
$KSPI high-margin super app company from Kazakhstan is expanding to Turkey
If you go shopping or buying groceries in Kazakhstan you aren’t asked “Card or Cash?”, but “Kaspi or Cash?”
Kaspi is used for contactless payments via QR codes. It's so dominant, that I have even heard anecdotal stories about tourists who have to always carry a lot of cash around, as payment methods other than Kaspi (even Visa or Mastercard) are sometimes not accepted in some parts of Kazakhstan (foreigners can’t access Kaspi).
The offered services range from peer to peer transfers, personal finance, e-commerce and consumer loans to government services including doing your taxes and registering marriages. With this GovTech platform, costumers can even buy, sell and register cars fully online “over coffee in the evening”, as the CEO Mikhail Lomtadze put it.
Mikhail Lomtadze joined Kaspi in 2006 and has since transformed the legacy bank into the dominant Super app it is today.
Lomtadze likes to stress that has an "obsessive focus on the customer," which is "embedded into its DNA.”, stating "We make every product for ourselves, our friends, or family members."
XX million out of the XXXX million Kazakhs use Kaspi, most in their daily lives. Kaspi’s business model is very asset-light and highly profitable, which indicates high potential for geographic expansion: net profit margin is XXXXX% and a gross margin 83.19%.
Expected baseline CAGR and earnings growth are both projected to grow at 15-20% over the next few years. That does not include the expansion to Turkey, which offers a potential market of X times the size of Kazakhstan.
Kaspi is currently trading at a pe ratio of ca. X (this excludes the Turkish business, which is loss-making for now)
operates a two-sided Super App model, meaning two distinct Super Apps that work in tandem to serve different user groups within the same integrated ecosystem:
Super App (for Consumers):
This is the primary app that most people refer to when they talk about "Kaspi."
It's designed for individual consumers and integrates a wide range of services for their daily needs.
Services include: online shopping (Marketplace), bill payments, peer-to-peer (P2P) money transfers, personal finance management (My Bank), consumer loans (Fintech), and even essential government services like registering marriages or paying taxes. It’s constantly expanding
Its purpose is to simplify and enhance the everyday lives of consumers, making it a "one-stop payment" and digital engagement platform.
Kaspi Pay Super App (for Merchants):
This is the dedicated app for businesses and entrepreneurs (merchants).
It serves as the "digital partner of choice for businesses" in Kazakhstan.
Services include: enabling merchants to accept payments (online and in-store via Kaspi QR), issue and instantly settle invoices, pay suppliers, monitor turnover, and access merchant finance products.
Its goal is to support businesses in increasing sales and managing their operations efficiently within the ecosystem.
Now Kaspi is expanding to Turkey, having recently purchased a majority stake in Turkish e-commerce company Hepsiburada. This could bring Kaspi one step closer to its goal of reaching XXX million costumers (up from XX million today).
However: Hepsiburada had a pretty bad Q1, with revenue down X% YoY and making losses. This was due to macroeconomic headwinds, including high inflation, weak consumer sentiment and widespread political boycotts that unjustly hit Hepsiburada (even though it doesn’t have any direct connections to and certainly doesn’t politically support the current government). Also the exact roadmap and timeline for the Turkey expansion aren’t quite clear, at least publicly. Also, regulatory hurdles might be problematic in Turkey. Trendyol is a strong competitor and it will be interesting to see how Kaspi does outside its core market.
For now, Kaspi is mostly just trying to improve Hepsiburada’s services and is in the process of acquiring a banking license, which should be due in the coming months. I assume that they will then gradually try to transform Hepsiburada into a Turkish super app akin to Kaspi. If that works out even somewhat as well as in Kazakhstan, then we are looking at enormous potential revenue and earnings growth (Turkish GDP is 5x that of Kazakhstan). Lomtadze describes the Kaspi model as "highly scalable, asset-light," which allows them to "expand into new geographies as quickly and efficiently as we have expanded into new verticals in Kazakhstan.” Turkey will be the test of that statement.
Kaspi has seen significant share price decline in recent months.
This is due to
1) A fake class action lawsuit (short seller attack imo) that has since been quietly dismissed (with no immediate positive reaction in the stock price interestingly)
2) The very real problems in the Kazakh economy with sticky, low double-digit inflation and high interest rates. This is expected to last at least into 2026.
2025 guidance has also been revised downward (YoY net income growth from XX% to 15%), in part due to new smartphone regulations, which temporarily decrease/slow smartphone usage; the mentioned high interest rates and increased deposit costs.
3) Hepsiburada has even more severe problems, with declining revenue in Q1 YoY. There are also many uncertainties, including some of regulatory nature, regarding the Turkey expansion. Kaspi’s management sees this only as temporary headwinds that don’t affect the broader Turkey expansion plan.
In conclusion: is an overlooked company, not only operating in high margin sectors that still have plenty of expansion potential via product and service innovation, but it is expanding geographically to a market X times its core one. Kaspi also acquired a banking license in Ukraine in 2021, so an end to the war could theoretically be another potential catalyst. On the other hand there are significant risks and uncertainties due to problems in the Kazakh economy and the expansion to Turkey. If the Turkey expansion shows to be successful than we would be looking at a massive repricing.
Not financial advice
#Kaspi #Ecommerce #Superapp #Fintech
XXX engagements
**Related Topics**
[qr](/topic/qr)
[groceries](/topic/groceries)
[turkey](/topic/turkey)
[kazakhstan](/topic/kazakhstan)
[$kspi](/topic/$kspi)
[Post Link](https://x.com/D27357/status/1947408660860190953)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
FatumOpes @D27357 on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-21 21:29:40 UTC
$KSPI high-margin super app company from Kazakhstan is expanding to Turkey
If you go shopping or buying groceries in Kazakhstan you aren’t asked “Card or Cash?”, but “Kaspi or Cash?”
Kaspi is used for contactless payments via QR codes. It's so dominant, that I have even heard anecdotal stories about tourists who have to always carry a lot of cash around, as payment methods other than Kaspi (even Visa or Mastercard) are sometimes not accepted in some parts of Kazakhstan (foreigners can’t access Kaspi). The offered services range from peer to peer transfers, personal finance, e-commerce and consumer loans to government services including doing your taxes and registering marriages. With this GovTech platform, costumers can even buy, sell and register cars fully online “over coffee in the evening”, as the CEO Mikhail Lomtadze put it.
Mikhail Lomtadze joined Kaspi in 2006 and has since transformed the legacy bank into the dominant Super app it is today. Lomtadze likes to stress that has an "obsessive focus on the customer," which is "embedded into its DNA.”, stating "We make every product for ourselves, our friends, or family members." XX million out of the XXXX million Kazakhs use Kaspi, most in their daily lives. Kaspi’s business model is very asset-light and highly profitable, which indicates high potential for geographic expansion: net profit margin is XXXXX% and a gross margin 83.19%. Expected baseline CAGR and earnings growth are both projected to grow at 15-20% over the next few years. That does not include the expansion to Turkey, which offers a potential market of X times the size of Kazakhstan. Kaspi is currently trading at a pe ratio of ca. X (this excludes the Turkish business, which is loss-making for now)
operates a two-sided Super App model, meaning two distinct Super Apps that work in tandem to serve different user groups within the same integrated ecosystem:
Super App (for Consumers): This is the primary app that most people refer to when they talk about "Kaspi." It's designed for individual consumers and integrates a wide range of services for their daily needs. Services include: online shopping (Marketplace), bill payments, peer-to-peer (P2P) money transfers, personal finance management (My Bank), consumer loans (Fintech), and even essential government services like registering marriages or paying taxes. It’s constantly expanding Its purpose is to simplify and enhance the everyday lives of consumers, making it a "one-stop payment" and digital engagement platform.
Kaspi Pay Super App (for Merchants): This is the dedicated app for businesses and entrepreneurs (merchants). It serves as the "digital partner of choice for businesses" in Kazakhstan. Services include: enabling merchants to accept payments (online and in-store via Kaspi QR), issue and instantly settle invoices, pay suppliers, monitor turnover, and access merchant finance products. Its goal is to support businesses in increasing sales and managing their operations efficiently within the ecosystem.
Now Kaspi is expanding to Turkey, having recently purchased a majority stake in Turkish e-commerce company Hepsiburada. This could bring Kaspi one step closer to its goal of reaching XXX million costumers (up from XX million today).
However: Hepsiburada had a pretty bad Q1, with revenue down X% YoY and making losses. This was due to macroeconomic headwinds, including high inflation, weak consumer sentiment and widespread political boycotts that unjustly hit Hepsiburada (even though it doesn’t have any direct connections to and certainly doesn’t politically support the current government). Also the exact roadmap and timeline for the Turkey expansion aren’t quite clear, at least publicly. Also, regulatory hurdles might be problematic in Turkey. Trendyol is a strong competitor and it will be interesting to see how Kaspi does outside its core market. For now, Kaspi is mostly just trying to improve Hepsiburada’s services and is in the process of acquiring a banking license, which should be due in the coming months. I assume that they will then gradually try to transform Hepsiburada into a Turkish super app akin to Kaspi. If that works out even somewhat as well as in Kazakhstan, then we are looking at enormous potential revenue and earnings growth (Turkish GDP is 5x that of Kazakhstan). Lomtadze describes the Kaspi model as "highly scalable, asset-light," which allows them to "expand into new geographies as quickly and efficiently as we have expanded into new verticals in Kazakhstan.” Turkey will be the test of that statement.
Kaspi has seen significant share price decline in recent months.
This is due to
- A fake class action lawsuit (short seller attack imo) that has since been quietly dismissed (with no immediate positive reaction in the stock price interestingly)
- The very real problems in the Kazakh economy with sticky, low double-digit inflation and high interest rates. This is expected to last at least into 2026. 2025 guidance has also been revised downward (YoY net income growth from XX% to 15%), in part due to new smartphone regulations, which temporarily decrease/slow smartphone usage; the mentioned high interest rates and increased deposit costs.
- Hepsiburada has even more severe problems, with declining revenue in Q1 YoY. There are also many uncertainties, including some of regulatory nature, regarding the Turkey expansion. Kaspi’s management sees this only as temporary headwinds that don’t affect the broader Turkey expansion plan.
In conclusion: is an overlooked company, not only operating in high margin sectors that still have plenty of expansion potential via product and service innovation, but it is expanding geographically to a market X times its core one. Kaspi also acquired a banking license in Ukraine in 2021, so an end to the war could theoretically be another potential catalyst. On the other hand there are significant risks and uncertainties due to problems in the Kazakh economy and the expansion to Turkey. If the Turkey expansion shows to be successful than we would be looking at a massive repricing.
Not financial advice
#Kaspi #Ecommerce #Superapp #Fintech
XXX engagements
Related Topics qr groceries turkey kazakhstan $kspi