[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  DonCorleone77 [@CorleoneDon77](/creator/twitter/CorleoneDon77) on x 5463 followers Created: 2025-07-21 21:10:08 UTC $AMAT Attached is page X of a 22-page Needham analyst report on AMAT issued today entitled: "$120B WFE in '25 and '26; AMAT PT to $240, LRCX PT to $110, & KLAC PT to $1,000" Needham has a 'Buy' rating on AMAT with a $XXX price target. Needham's summary statement regarding AMAT in the report includes the following: "We are revising up our WFE estimates to $120B and $120B in '25 and '26, and adjusting our MSI estimates lower for 2025 and 2026, despite still seeing X% MSI growth next year. Excluding part of China WFE that is closed for U.S. semicap companies, we see adjusted WFE to be $110B and $108B in '25 and '26. We think the market is underestimating 2025 WFE by about 10%. We are seeing WFE mix to change next year. Foundry/logic WFE is likely flat, as accessible China WFE decline in '26 remains a drag. DRAM WFE, which no longer has a China element due to CXMT shadow ban, is likely up in double digits next year, mostly driven by HBM. NAND WFE, however, could be flat to down next year as the recovery of NAND market remains underwhelming. Still, we are bullish on semicap. AI has fundamentally changed semis, but there is still some distance between AI and semicap (except a handful of advanced packaging names). We believe 2026 is likely the inflection point, when general semicap will start to be the real AI beneficiary. We think the AI benefit will first move the semicap needle in DRAM next year, and then in leading-edge foundry in 2027. The setup into 2H25 appears to be more favorable to AMAT than KLAC and LRCX. We think the market is at peak bearishness on AMAT, as AMAT's valuation discount to SOX is at a level unseen since September 2020. We think DRAM inflecting higher next year is a tailwind for AMAT, as DRAM remains the most market-share accretive segment for AMAT and its strength should lead to AMAT outperformance. The name has been marred by China underperformance and share loss narrative this year, neither of which we consider as fair and substantiated. With this note, we are raising AMAT PT to $XXX and favor the name over KLAC and LRCX. We are not giving up on KLAC and LRCX yet. We are raising KLAC PT to $XXXXX and LRCX PT to $XXX. We think as the market comes to terms of "semicap is AI beneficiary", the rising tide should lift all boats. Nevertheless, we think the setup is the most favorable for AMAT from here. -- Risks to Price Target: ■ Deceleration of the recovery of semiconductor capital spending and/or FPD market ■ Failure to win business or gain share with new products ■ Share loss and/or pricing pressure should competition intensify ■ Failure to contain costs as business recovers" (Page X is not available here as X does not allow me to post pages from reports on this platform) XXX engagements  **Related Topics** [$120b](/topic/$120b) [$amat](/topic/$amat) [stocks technology](/topic/stocks-technology) [Post Link](https://x.com/CorleoneDon77/status/1947403745241010463)
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DonCorleone77 @CorleoneDon77 on x 5463 followers
Created: 2025-07-21 21:10:08 UTC
$AMAT
Attached is page X of a 22-page Needham analyst report on AMAT issued today entitled:
"$120B WFE in '25 and '26; AMAT PT to $240, LRCX PT to $110, & KLAC PT to $1,000"
Needham has a 'Buy' rating on AMAT with a $XXX price target.
Needham's summary statement regarding AMAT in the report includes the following:
"We are revising up our WFE estimates to $120B and $120B in '25 and '26, and adjusting our MSI estimates lower for 2025 and 2026, despite still seeing X% MSI growth next year. Excluding part of China WFE that is closed for U.S. semicap companies, we see adjusted WFE to be $110B and $108B in '25 and '26. We think the market is underestimating 2025 WFE by about 10%.
We are seeing WFE mix to change next year. Foundry/logic WFE is likely flat, as accessible China WFE decline in '26 remains a drag. DRAM WFE, which no longer has a China element due to CXMT shadow ban, is likely up in double digits next year, mostly driven by HBM. NAND WFE, however, could be flat to down next year as the recovery of NAND market remains underwhelming.
Still, we are bullish on semicap. AI has fundamentally changed semis, but there is still some distance between AI and semicap (except a handful of advanced packaging names). We believe 2026 is likely the inflection point, when general semicap will start to be the real AI beneficiary. We think the AI benefit will first move the semicap needle in DRAM next year, and then in leading-edge foundry in 2027.
The setup into 2H25 appears to be more favorable to AMAT than KLAC and LRCX. We think the market is at peak bearishness on AMAT, as AMAT's valuation discount to SOX is at a level unseen since September 2020. We think DRAM inflecting higher next year is a tailwind for AMAT, as DRAM remains the most market-share accretive segment for AMAT and its strength should lead to AMAT outperformance.
The name has been marred by China underperformance and share loss narrative this year, neither of which we consider as fair and substantiated.
With this note, we are raising AMAT PT to $XXX and favor the name over KLAC and LRCX. We are not giving up on KLAC and LRCX yet. We are raising KLAC PT to $XXXXX and LRCX PT to $XXX. We think as the market comes to terms of "semicap is AI beneficiary", the rising tide should lift all boats. Nevertheless, we think the setup is the most favorable for AMAT from here.
-- Risks to Price Target:
■ Deceleration of the recovery of semiconductor capital spending and/or FPD market ■ Failure to win business or gain share with new products ■ Share loss and/or pricing pressure should competition intensify ■ Failure to contain costs as business recovers"
(Page X is not available here as X does not allow me to post pages from reports on this platform)
XXX engagements
Related Topics $120b $amat stocks technology