[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  jan dekkers [@jan_dekkers](/creator/twitter/jan_dekkers) on x 1168 followers Created: 2025-07-21 15:45:50 UTC Here’s a compelling case for why $NIO is severely undervalued , and why a profitable Q4 could be the catalyst that re-rates the stock dramatically: X. Profitability Has Always Been the Missing Piece For years, #NIO has shown world-class innovation, product quality, and infrastructure buildout, but lacked one key element: profitability. Now, with gross margins recovering, battery costs falling, and strong #L90 demand, Q4 2025 is shaping up to be the first profitable quarter. Wall Street analysts have punished NIO for its cash burn, but they also know what comes next: once a company like NIO crosses the profitability threshold, valuation multiples expand rapidly. Tesla did it. XPeng did it. NIO is next. X. The Valuation Is Outright Absurd Market cap: ~$13B Cash on hand: ~$6B Infrastructure: 2,400+ battery swap stations IP & R&D: Billions invested Brand value: Top-tier loyalty in China You’re effectively getting NIO’s entire national charging/swapping infrastructure, the Firefly and Alps brands, the NT3 platform, and the best battery-swapping tech on earth for pennies on the dollar. X. The L90 Changed Everything The L90 is not just a product — it’s a statement. It’s crushing early demand expectations, packed with class-leading tech, and priced from ~$27K with BaaS. The reception has been so strong, it’s literally pulling foot traffic into Sam’s, Costco, and Onvo stores — places that previously didn’t sell cars. This demand will snowball into Q4 sales, with high margins due to platform maturity and falling battery costs. X. Operating Leverage Kicking In NIO has absorbed fixed costs for years: factories, R&D, service networks, global expansion. With volumes rising (especially with Alps and Firefly launches), revenue will grow faster than expenses. That’s how profitability happens. Add: New energy credits revenue NOP+ subscription margin Rising service income And you get a Q4 that shocks the skeptics. X. Beijing Is Backing Winners With tariffs mounting and U.S.-China tensions rising, Beijing is focusing on protecting its national EV champions. NIO, with deep strategic cooperation (CATL, JAC, Sinopec), and strong export potential, is in a prime position to benefit from policy tailwinds — not headwinds. X. Institutions Are Quietly Accumulating Recent 13F filings show a steady uptick in institutional buying. They don’t chase — they accumulate before the earnings. The same analysts who rate NIO a "sell" today will be raising their price targets X minutes after that Q4 report drops. It’s All About the Inflection Point Markets are forward-looking. The moment NIO delivers a profitable quarter , especially in Q4 2025 , the market narrative shifts from “money-losing EV startup” to “undervalued Chinese Tesla.” At ~$5/share, the risk/reward is asymmetric. NIO doesn’t need to beat Tesla, it just needs to turn the corner. And that corner is Q4. Don't be a 50, be cool and get in at X so you can sell it to the XX crowd when the time comes. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. I'm long NIO, and not afraid to say so.  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [nio](/topic/nio) [$nio](/topic/$nio) [Post Link](https://x.com/jan_dekkers/status/1947322132251431285)
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jan dekkers @jan_dekkers on x 1168 followers
Created: 2025-07-21 15:45:50 UTC
Here’s a compelling case for why $NIO is severely undervalued , and why a profitable Q4 could be the catalyst that re-rates the stock dramatically:
X. Profitability Has Always Been the Missing Piece For years, #NIO has shown world-class innovation, product quality, and infrastructure buildout, but lacked one key element: profitability. Now, with gross margins recovering, battery costs falling, and strong #L90 demand, Q4 2025 is shaping up to be the first profitable quarter.
Wall Street analysts have punished NIO for its cash burn, but they also know what comes next: once a company like NIO crosses the profitability threshold, valuation multiples expand rapidly. Tesla did it. XPeng did it. NIO is next.
X. The Valuation Is Outright Absurd Market cap: ~$13B
Cash on hand: ~$6B
Infrastructure: 2,400+ battery swap stations
IP & R&D: Billions invested
Brand value: Top-tier loyalty in China
You’re effectively getting NIO’s entire national charging/swapping infrastructure, the Firefly and Alps brands, the NT3 platform, and the best battery-swapping tech on earth for pennies on the dollar.
X. The L90 Changed Everything The L90 is not just a product — it’s a statement. It’s crushing early demand expectations, packed with class-leading tech, and priced from ~$27K with BaaS. The reception has been so strong, it’s literally pulling foot traffic into Sam’s, Costco, and Onvo stores — places that previously didn’t sell cars.
This demand will snowball into Q4 sales, with high margins due to platform maturity and falling battery costs.
X. Operating Leverage Kicking In NIO has absorbed fixed costs for years: factories, R&D, service networks, global expansion. With volumes rising (especially with Alps and Firefly launches), revenue will grow faster than expenses. That’s how profitability happens.
Add:
New energy credits revenue
NOP+ subscription margin
Rising service income And you get a Q4 that shocks the skeptics.
X. Beijing Is Backing Winners
With tariffs mounting and U.S.-China tensions rising, Beijing is focusing on protecting its national EV champions. NIO, with deep strategic cooperation (CATL, JAC, Sinopec), and strong export potential, is in a prime position to benefit from policy tailwinds — not headwinds.
X. Institutions Are Quietly Accumulating
Recent 13F filings show a steady uptick in institutional buying. They don’t chase — they accumulate before the earnings. The same analysts who rate NIO a "sell" today will be raising their price targets X minutes after that Q4 report drops.
It’s All About the Inflection Point
Markets are forward-looking. The moment NIO delivers a profitable quarter , especially in Q4 2025 , the market narrative shifts from “money-losing EV startup” to “undervalued Chinese Tesla.”
At ~$5/share, the risk/reward is asymmetric. NIO doesn’t need to beat Tesla, it just needs to turn the corner. And that corner is Q4.
Don't be a 50, be cool and get in at X so you can sell it to the XX crowd when the time comes.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. I'm long NIO, and not afraid to say so.
XXXXX engagements
