[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  jeffreylebowski.eth [@lebowski_eth](/creator/twitter/lebowski_eth) on x 2314 followers Created: 2025-07-21 01:23:01 UTC Sweep today got me thinking: what a pixelated punk will be worth when your flying car is obsolete in 2035? I’m bored so I ran a simple model. But it’s not just about the art, it’s about the scar tissue. So, you want to know what a punk will be worth in a decade? You and every other degen who just figured out what a blockchain is during the soylana memecoin frenzy. But you want a number. A clean, neat little number to plug into a spreadsheet. Fine. You'll get your number. But you're missing the point. You don't value something like this by looking at charts alone. You value it by wading into the digital back alleys where it was born. You have to scroll through the primordial ooze of 2017 Reddit posts the places that smelled of crypto stagnation, boredom, desperation, and the kind of wild, un-cynical optimism that only exists right before everyone gets rich or goes broke. This wasn’t an "asset class” when punks were released. It was an experiment. A revolutionary fusion to the idea of what art or ownership was supposed to be. But you want the recipe. The cold, hard calculus. Here it is: First, you have to make a big, heroic assumption about the plumbing of this whole digital sewer: the price of Ethereum. Let’s say, in our most sober, base-case world, one efferieyum is worth $XXXXXX of your hard-earned dirty fiat dollars. If we get fucked and everything goes sideways, maybe it’s only $15k. If the whole world truly loses its mind and goes on-chain, maybe it’s $30k (conservative, but let’s stick with it). That’s our foundation and our range. Let’s assume the entire punks collection will be worth a fraction of the total Ethereum economy- let’s say they’ll represent about XXX% of the projected tvl —> $9.4B on a tvl of $3.1T Sounds a little nutty but also only requires a ~44% CAGR over the course of XX years Do that math, and you land on a floor price of XXX ETH At our $20k/ETH, that’s a cool $5M for the cheapest punk you can get your hands on. Fucking base case right there. Let’s say ETH only limps to $15k and the number of owners barely grows from today’s ~3.8k —> 4.5k to reflect lack of demand you’re looking at a floor of XXX ETH, or still about $1.7M A tragedy, I know. Yet a 10x over XX years is nothing to scoff at But what about the champagne and cocaine world of money printer brrr, stimmy flowing..? ETH hits $30k, 7k punk owners gets you… XXX ETH a staggering $16.5M OG claimers weren't thinking about this. They were cypherpunks and hobbyists This place is about to get flooded. Hedge fund guys in Patagonia vests will talk about "alpha" and "floor mechanics" like they're ordering a tasting menu. It’ll be a circus. A glorious, unhinged, often idiotic circus. But here's the secret, the thing the model can't quantify… In a world that's about to be drowned in a sea of perfect, sterile, AI-generated bullshit, these ugly little 24-by-24 pixel faces represent the first schelling point of provable internet ownership. They're a scar from the past. A proof of life. They're the digital equivalent of a faded passport stamp. They prove we were there. At the beginning. Before the suits and their spreadsheets arrived. And in 2035, when everything is a perfect, synthetic copy, that little piece of authentic cypherpunk history? That's the only thing that will be worth a damn. Punks to the fucking moon. XXX engagements  **Related Topics** [memecoin](/topic/memecoin) [blockchain](/topic/blockchain) [Post Link](https://x.com/lebowski_eth/status/1947104998476964217)
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
jeffreylebowski.eth @lebowski_eth on x 2314 followers
Created: 2025-07-21 01:23:01 UTC
Sweep today got me thinking:
what a pixelated punk will be worth when your flying car is obsolete in 2035?
I’m bored so I ran a simple model.
But it’s not just about the art,
it’s about the scar tissue.
So, you want to know what a punk will be worth in a decade?
You and every other degen who just figured out what a blockchain is during the soylana memecoin frenzy.
But you want a number. A clean, neat little number to plug into a spreadsheet. Fine. You'll get your number.
But you're missing the point.
You don't value something like this by looking at charts alone.
You value it by wading into the digital back alleys where it was born.
You have to scroll through the primordial ooze of 2017 Reddit posts
the places that smelled of crypto stagnation, boredom, desperation, and the kind of wild, un-cynical optimism that only exists right before everyone gets rich or goes broke.
This wasn’t an "asset class” when punks were released.
It was an experiment.
A revolutionary fusion to the idea of what art or ownership was supposed to be.
But you want the recipe.
The cold, hard calculus.
Here it is:
First, you have to make a big, heroic assumption about the plumbing of this whole digital sewer: the price of Ethereum.
Let’s say, in our most sober, base-case world, one efferieyum is worth $XXXXXX of your hard-earned dirty fiat dollars.
If we get fucked and everything goes sideways, maybe it’s only $15k.
If the whole world truly loses its mind and goes on-chain, maybe it’s $30k (conservative, but let’s stick with it).
That’s our foundation and our range.
Let’s assume the entire punks collection will be worth a fraction of the total Ethereum economy- let’s say they’ll represent about XXX% of the projected tvl —> $9.4B on a tvl of $3.1T
Sounds a little nutty but also only requires a ~44% CAGR over the course of XX years
Do that math, and you land on a floor price of XXX ETH
At our $20k/ETH, that’s a cool $5M for the cheapest punk you can get your hands on.
Fucking base case right there.
Let’s say ETH only limps to $15k and the number of owners barely grows from today’s ~3.8k —> 4.5k to reflect lack of demand
you’re looking at a floor of XXX ETH, or still about $1.7M
A tragedy, I know.
Yet a 10x over XX years is nothing to scoff at
But what about the champagne and cocaine world of money printer brrr, stimmy flowing..?
ETH hits $30k, 7k punk owners gets you…
XXX ETH
a staggering $16.5M
OG claimers weren't thinking about this.
They were cypherpunks and hobbyists
This place is about to get flooded.
Hedge fund guys in Patagonia vests will talk about "alpha" and "floor mechanics" like they're ordering a tasting menu.
It’ll be a circus.
A glorious, unhinged, often idiotic circus.
But here's the secret, the thing the model can't quantify…
In a world that's about to be drowned in a sea of perfect, sterile, AI-generated bullshit, these ugly little 24-by-24 pixel faces represent the first schelling point of provable internet ownership.
They're a scar from the past.
A proof of life.
They're the digital equivalent of a faded passport stamp.
They prove we were there.
At the beginning.
Before the suits and their spreadsheets arrived.
And in 2035, when everything is a perfect, synthetic copy, that little piece of authentic cypherpunk history?
That's the only thing that will be worth a damn.
Punks to the fucking moon.
XXX engagements
Related Topics memecoin blockchain