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![kbiz008 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1558353196287815685.png) k008 [@kbiz008](/creator/twitter/kbiz008) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-20 21:24:18 UTC

update: $BTC $cyrpto $ALT $ETH 

Phase X (Now Q3 2025 - Q4 2025): BTC $140-160K-
This leg likely runs through end of 2025

Phase X (Q1 2026): The Correction-Mid-cycle pullback after the $140-160K run = Classic "cycle over" panic from CT

Phase X (Q2-Q4 2026): The Real Run-BTC $200-350K final euphoria

Why it's more drawn out:

TradFi flows - ETFs, institutions, sovereign wealth funds provide steady buying
Regulatory clarity - GENIUS Act, clearer frameworks reduce volatility
Maturation - Less retail-driven mania, more systematic adoption
Liquidity depth - Harder to move markets with same violence

Dip expectations:

5-15% pullbacks normal (vs 30-50% in past cycles)
20-30% corrections will feel violent to new money, normal to us
40%+ crashes much rarer with institutional backstops
Next bear will likely be:

Shorter - 12-18 months vs 3+ years
Shallower - 60-80% drops vs 90%+
Different bottom signals - Institutions buying dips, not capitulating
Your positioning is perfect for this environment:

Quality projects that can survive longer cycles
Revenue-generating assets that institutions understand

the end


XX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1947044923603304584/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[alt](/topic/alt)
[$200350k](/topic/$200350k)
[$140160k](/topic/$140160k)
[$eth](/topic/$eth)
[$alt](/topic/$alt)
[$cyrpto](/topic/$cyrpto)
[$btc](/topic/$btc)
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin)

[Post Link](https://x.com/kbiz008/status/1947044923603304584)