[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Jacob Ben-David Linker 🪬🕎✡️🕎🪬 [@JacobALinker](/creator/twitter/JacobALinker) on x 5999 followers Created: 2025-07-20 19:32:28 UTC There are winners and losers from the latest tumult. WINNERS: Hikmat al-Hijri, the SDF-Kurds, Iran, Turkey, and Sunni Hardliners LOSERS: The United States, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Israel, the Gulf Why is this so? Hikmat al Hijri. His faction amongst the Druze of Suwayda, which has stubbornly resisted rapprochement with Damascus, has come out looking very prescient. The followers of the most pro-Sharaa Shiekh, Laith al-Balous, have disavowed him. SDF-Kurds. The pressure being put on them to submit and integrate with Damascus had to do with the United States viewing Damascus as a stable partner which could be trusted to handle any hot messes. Now that that has been shown to not be the case (for now, at least), the US is bound to look to them for more support against ISIS and Al Qaeda. Iran. Any process of normalization and strategic alignment between Israel and the Sunni States, including Syria, has been dampened. This helps Iran, which favors instability and Jewish-Sunni division as giving it greater freedom of operation. And Iran has a new propaganda card to play to traumatize Arabs - that Israel is trying to break up Syria and other Arab States. Turkey. Israeli-Syrian normalization would make it easier for Sharaa to escape from under Ankara's thumb. And given that the Turkish-backed SNA was whipping up, arming, and bussing tribal fighters down to Suwayda, it looks like Turkey has demonstrated a strong ability to destabilize Syria if Sharaa gets out of line. A downside for them is that they sought further centralization of Turkey and dismantling of the SDF Kurds, but that seems relatively small compared to the prospect of Syria breaking from under their domination. Sunni Hardliners. There are obviously forces in Sharaa's government that opposed closer ties to Israel. Relations being soured helps them. The United States. The US came off looking silly for having put so much trust in Sharaa. It also has to deal with the headache of Sunni Arab - Israeli relations being soured (publicly soured, at least) for the time being. Ahmed al Sharaa. His government will have a tougher time persuading the Druze and Kurds to integrate with Damascus now. He has also lost face with many in his own country - both moderate/reformer (horrified at what happened in Suwayda) and hardliner (angry at Israel attacking and at the tribal fighters being told to heel). And he has likely lost face with the United States as he oversold his ability to put a lid on things. And he also wants/needs better relations with Israel as a hedge against Iran and to wiggle out from under Turkey. Israel. Israel's blossoming good relations with the new Syria are on hold. A bunch of very nationalist Syrians are very angry, and lots of Sunnis who were starting to open up to Israel or at least get more neutral about Israel are now hostile to Israel. Meanwhile the US is pissed at Israel. And all this chaos and tumult just helps Iran. Gulf States. These countries want normalization with Israel and between Israel and Syria as part of a region-wide strategy of economic growth and security cooperation against Iran. Hostility between Israel and Sunnis makes this harder. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [druze](/topic/druze) [faction](/topic/faction) [israel](/topic/israel) [united states](/topic/united-states) [turkey](/topic/turkey) [iran](/topic/iran) [jacob](/topic/jacob) [Post Link](https://x.com/JacobALinker/status/1947016779664122094)
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Jacob Ben-David Linker 🪬🕎✡️🕎🪬 @JacobALinker on x 5999 followers
Created: 2025-07-20 19:32:28 UTC
There are winners and losers from the latest tumult.
WINNERS: Hikmat al-Hijri, the SDF-Kurds, Iran, Turkey, and Sunni Hardliners LOSERS: The United States, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Israel, the Gulf
Why is this so?
Hikmat al Hijri. His faction amongst the Druze of Suwayda, which has stubbornly resisted rapprochement with Damascus, has come out looking very prescient. The followers of the most pro-Sharaa Shiekh, Laith al-Balous, have disavowed him. SDF-Kurds. The pressure being put on them to submit and integrate with Damascus had to do with the United States viewing Damascus as a stable partner which could be trusted to handle any hot messes. Now that that has been shown to not be the case (for now, at least), the US is bound to look to them for more support against ISIS and Al Qaeda. Iran. Any process of normalization and strategic alignment between Israel and the Sunni States, including Syria, has been dampened. This helps Iran, which favors instability and Jewish-Sunni division as giving it greater freedom of operation. And Iran has a new propaganda card to play to traumatize Arabs - that Israel is trying to break up Syria and other Arab States. Turkey. Israeli-Syrian normalization would make it easier for Sharaa to escape from under Ankara's thumb. And given that the Turkish-backed SNA was whipping up, arming, and bussing tribal fighters down to Suwayda, it looks like Turkey has demonstrated a strong ability to destabilize Syria if Sharaa gets out of line. A downside for them is that they sought further centralization of Turkey and dismantling of the SDF Kurds, but that seems relatively small compared to the prospect of Syria breaking from under their domination. Sunni Hardliners. There are obviously forces in Sharaa's government that opposed closer ties to Israel. Relations being soured helps them. The United States. The US came off looking silly for having put so much trust in Sharaa. It also has to deal with the headache of Sunni Arab - Israeli relations being soured (publicly soured, at least) for the time being. Ahmed al Sharaa. His government will have a tougher time persuading the Druze and Kurds to integrate with Damascus now. He has also lost face with many in his own country - both moderate/reformer (horrified at what happened in Suwayda) and hardliner (angry at Israel attacking and at the tribal fighters being told to heel). And he has likely lost face with the United States as he oversold his ability to put a lid on things. And he also wants/needs better relations with Israel as a hedge against Iran and to wiggle out from under Turkey. Israel. Israel's blossoming good relations with the new Syria are on hold. A bunch of very nationalist Syrians are very angry, and lots of Sunnis who were starting to open up to Israel or at least get more neutral about Israel are now hostile to Israel. Meanwhile the US is pissed at Israel. And all this chaos and tumult just helps Iran. Gulf States. These countries want normalization with Israel and between Israel and Syria as part of a region-wide strategy of economic growth and security cooperation against Iran. Hostility between Israel and Sunnis makes this harder.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics druze faction israel united states turkey iran jacob