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![Kacper_PK_CH Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1201803781530423296.png) Kacper Piotr Kaminski [@Kacper_PK_CH](/creator/twitter/Kacper_PK_CH) on x 3120 followers
Created: 2025-07-20 17:34:32 UTC

Weekly Markets Update – July 21, 2025 – Part X

Treasuries

No current trades or planned ones. I continue to hold $TUA, which for me serves as a form of insurance in case the Fed is effectively broken by the President and we see a sharp drop in rates at the front end of the curve.

$SHY, $IEF, $TLT
What we have seen recently is a sharp decline in Treasury market volatility following the tariffs-related crash back in April. This is clearly visible in the MOVE index. The passing of the spending bill has removed a major source of uncertainty and is a reminder that we are now operating in a world that is overwhelmingly driven by fiscal policy.

Even so, I am still not bullish on long-term bonds. I can easily imagine a scenario where yields push much higher as we move through the rest of this decade. There are simply better places to allocate capital or even just to park liquidity.

So what are the key dynamics to monitor? In the short to medium term, the direction of Treasuries will likely be influenced by developments in the energy space and by policy decisions coming out of the current administration. Tariffs will matter, but so will banking regulation. Without a meaningful expansion in credit, it is hard to sustain inflation for long, even if trade measures create temporary pricing pressure.

This is what makes the current setup so tricky. We may see bursts of cyclical inflation tied to trade policy, but tighter credit conditions remain a persistent drag on the structural side.

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwUWO8IXUAchO9f.jpg)

XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1946987098508062728/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[$tlt](/topic/$tlt)
[$ief](/topic/$ief)
[$shy](/topic/$shy)
[rates](/topic/rates)
[$6753t](/topic/$6753t)
[fed](/topic/fed)
[federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve)
[insurance](/topic/insurance)

[Post Link](https://x.com/Kacper_PK_CH/status/1946987098508062728)

[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

Kacper_PK_CH Avatar Kacper Piotr Kaminski @Kacper_PK_CH on x 3120 followers Created: 2025-07-20 17:34:32 UTC

Weekly Markets Update – July 21, 2025 – Part X

Treasuries

No current trades or planned ones. I continue to hold $TUA, which for me serves as a form of insurance in case the Fed is effectively broken by the President and we see a sharp drop in rates at the front end of the curve.

$SHY, $IEF, $TLT What we have seen recently is a sharp decline in Treasury market volatility following the tariffs-related crash back in April. This is clearly visible in the MOVE index. The passing of the spending bill has removed a major source of uncertainty and is a reminder that we are now operating in a world that is overwhelmingly driven by fiscal policy.

Even so, I am still not bullish on long-term bonds. I can easily imagine a scenario where yields push much higher as we move through the rest of this decade. There are simply better places to allocate capital or even just to park liquidity.

So what are the key dynamics to monitor? In the short to medium term, the direction of Treasuries will likely be influenced by developments in the energy space and by policy decisions coming out of the current administration. Tariffs will matter, but so will banking regulation. Without a meaningful expansion in credit, it is hard to sustain inflation for long, even if trade measures create temporary pricing pressure.

This is what makes the current setup so tricky. We may see bursts of cyclical inflation tied to trade policy, but tighter credit conditions remain a persistent drag on the structural side.

XXX engagements

Engagements Line Chart

Related Topics $tlt $ief $shy rates $6753t fed federal reserve insurance

Post Link

post/tweet::1946987098508062728
/post/tweet::1946987098508062728