[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Aimen Dean [@AimenDean](/creator/twitter/AimenDean) on x 39.2K followers Created: 2025-07-20 11:44:06 UTC No, this didn’t start out of nowhere. There was no spontaneous combustion or sudden tribal explosion. What we saw on the coast was a carefully orchestrated provocation, not a grassroots uprising. Former Assad loyalists staged a calculated ambush, executing security personnel on camera and broadcasting it across social media, especially Twitter. The intent was unmistakable: provoke a retaliatory response, incite tribal warfare, and force the new Syrian leadership into a trap, a cycle of revenge killings that would plunge the country back into chaos. But what’s remarkable is that this trap didn’t fully work. The revenge spiral was contained swiftly, and large-scale tribal escalation was averted. That fact alone is overlooked in most commentary, but it’s critical. Now, zooming out, the broader context reveals something even more astonishing. After XX years of civil war, nearly XXXXXXX people killed - most of them Sunni - and over XX million displaced, many would expect genocidal retribution, especially against the Alawite minority and Assad’s core supporters. Historically, this is how post-conflict scenarios often unfold, just look at Rwanda or Bosnia. But it didn’t happen in Syria. The forces that overthrew Assad, by the brutal metrics of human history, demonstrated extraordinary restraint. This isn’t to say Syria is a utopia, it most definitely isn’t. But given what could have happened, and has happened in similar contexts, Syria’s post-Assad trajectory so far has defied the bloodlust that usually defines such transitions. Regionally, there’s also a clear consensus: Syria must remain whole. Turkey, Jordan, and the Gulf Cooperation Council have all expressed firm opposition to any attempts to fracture the country. Despite that, we’ve seen militia leaders like Hikmat al-Hijri refusing integration into the national framework for over seven months. He’s taken advantage of the Israeli-imposed demilitarized zones to launch attacks on tribal (particularly Bedouin) communities. This outcome wasn’t just foreseeable - it was predicted. What we’re staring down now is the nightmare scenario: a full-blown tribal Armageddon that could spill into Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and even the Sinai. And it’s accelerating dangerously close to reality. XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [twitter](/topic/twitter) [Post Link](https://x.com/AimenDean/status/1946898912339710454)
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Aimen Dean @AimenDean on x 39.2K followers
Created: 2025-07-20 11:44:06 UTC
No, this didn’t start out of nowhere. There was no spontaneous combustion or sudden tribal explosion. What we saw on the coast was a carefully orchestrated provocation, not a grassroots uprising. Former Assad loyalists staged a calculated ambush, executing security personnel on camera and broadcasting it across social media, especially Twitter. The intent was unmistakable: provoke a retaliatory response, incite tribal warfare, and force the new Syrian leadership into a trap, a cycle of revenge killings that would plunge the country back into chaos. But what’s remarkable is that this trap didn’t fully work. The revenge spiral was contained swiftly, and large-scale tribal escalation was averted. That fact alone is overlooked in most commentary, but it’s critical.
Now, zooming out, the broader context reveals something even more astonishing. After XX years of civil war, nearly XXXXXXX people killed - most of them Sunni - and over XX million displaced, many would expect genocidal retribution, especially against the Alawite minority and Assad’s core supporters. Historically, this is how post-conflict scenarios often unfold, just look at Rwanda or Bosnia. But it didn’t happen in Syria. The forces that overthrew Assad, by the brutal metrics of human history, demonstrated extraordinary restraint. This isn’t to say Syria is a utopia, it most definitely isn’t. But given what could have happened, and has happened in similar contexts, Syria’s post-Assad trajectory so far has defied the bloodlust that usually defines such transitions.
Regionally, there’s also a clear consensus: Syria must remain whole. Turkey, Jordan, and the Gulf Cooperation Council have all expressed firm opposition to any attempts to fracture the country. Despite that, we’ve seen militia leaders like Hikmat al-Hijri refusing integration into the national framework for over seven months. He’s taken advantage of the Israeli-imposed demilitarized zones to launch attacks on tribal (particularly Bedouin) communities. This outcome wasn’t just foreseeable - it was predicted.
What we’re staring down now is the nightmare scenario: a full-blown tribal Armageddon that could spill into Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and even the Sinai. And it’s accelerating dangerously close to reality.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics twitter