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![propulsionpoint Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::76150544.png) PropulsionPoint Capital [@propulsionpoint](/creator/twitter/propulsionpoint) on x 1434 followers
Created: 2025-07-20 06:56:03 UTC

$OPEN - I took some calls on the stock ( sold at XXX% gain). Now I own a 20k shares with~55% gain.

๐‘ป๐’‰๐’† ๐’ƒ๐’Š๐’ˆ ๐’’๐’–๐’†๐’”๐’•๐’Š๐’๐’ - ๐‘ฐ๐’” ๐’•๐’‰๐’Š๐’” ๐’‚ ๐’Ž๐’†๐’Ž๐’† ๐’”๐’•๐’๐’„๐’Œ ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’‘๐’–๐’Ž๐’‘๐’†๐’… ๐’๐’“ ๐’…๐’๐’†๐’” ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’“๐’–๐’ ๐’‰๐’‚๐’—๐’† ๐’‚๐’๐’š ๐’Ž๐’†๐’“๐’Š๐’• ๐’‚๐’๐’… ๐’๐’†๐’ˆ๐’Š๐’•๐’Š๐’Ž๐’‚๐’„๐’š?

My take: Its not all meme pump; there is some legitimacy to this move. Its mostly centered around improving business fundamentals + Macro tailwind in the form of residential real estate growth with reducing mortgage rates. The upcoming quarterly results will be key to the sustainability of this rally.

But I remain skeptical about the "ibuying" industry
iBuyers are commercial house flippers who bridge finance their own assets and hold both the real estate asset and its debt financing on the same balance sheet. In the past few years their nightmare has come true which has accelerated their financial risk.

$OPEN is still some distance away from coming out of this mess. I also am not convinced of the value proposition to the sellers and they serve a small segment of the total residential market. I also don't believe that ML models are able to accurately predict and dynamically adjust to evaluate pricing instantly-that's the complexity of machine learning in real life

๐‘ซ๐’†๐’„๐’Š๐’”๐’Š๐’๐’: ๐‘ฐ ๐’‚๐’Ž ๐’ˆ๐’๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’•๐’ ๐’“๐’Š๐’…๐’† ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’•๐’“๐’†๐’๐’… ๐’‚๐’๐’… ๐’†๐’™๐’Š๐’• ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’”๐’•๐’๐’„๐’Œ ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’‡๐’๐’“๐’† ๐’“๐’†๐’”๐’–๐’๐’•๐’”. ๐‘ฐ ๐’‚๐’Ž ๐’‰๐’‚๐’‘๐’‘๐’š ๐’˜๐’Š๐’•๐’‰ ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’‡๐’Š๐’๐’‚๐’๐’„๐’Š๐’‚๐’ ๐’๐’–๐’•๐’„๐’๐’Ž๐’† ๐’•๐’‰๐’‚๐’• ๐’‰๐’‚๐’” ๐’‚๐’๐’“๐’†๐’‚๐’…๐’š ๐’•๐’‚๐’Œ๐’†๐’ ๐’‘๐’๐’‚๐’„๐’† ๐’˜๐’Š๐’•๐’‰ ๐’•๐’‰๐’Š๐’” ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’• ๐’–๐’๐’•๐’Š๐’ ๐’๐’๐’˜

Now my explanation:

A few things have happened which adds some legitimacy to the stock price appreciation

๐Ÿฅฆ๐๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐›๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ง ๐ž๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž ๐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ฐ๐š๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐

Q1 2025: $XXXX billion, down XXXX% YoY from $XXXX billion in Q1 2024, but up X% QoQ from $XXX billion in Q4 2024.

Q2 2025 Guidance: $1.45โ€“$1.55 billion (midpoint $XXX billion), implying 26โ€“34% YoY growth from $XXXX billion in Q2 2024.

Full-Year 2025: Analysts project ~$5.5โ€“6 billion, a 7โ€“16% increase from 2024โ€™s $XXXX billion, driven by the asset-light marketplace model and recovering housing demand.

๐ŸฅฆRedfin and Zillow have exited the ibuying business. ๐’๐จ ๐Ž๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐๐จ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐š๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐ž๐ซ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐š๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐๐ž, capturing ~1% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market.
Longer term outlook: Opendoor targets capturing 1โ€“2% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market, implying potential revenue of $16โ€“32 billion if successful.

๐Ÿฅฆ๐๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ: Expected positive EBITDA ($10โ€“$20 million) signals a path to potentially sustained profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA: -$30 million (margin -2.6%), improved from -$50 million (-4.2%) in Q1 2024 and -$49 million (-4.5%) in Q4 2024.

๐Ÿฅฆ๐€ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐€๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ญ-๐‹๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐Œ๐š๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ญ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐œ๐ž  with transition to a listing platform with agent partnerships. Currently X% revenues from listing fees, brokerage, title, and escrow services and growing.

๐Ÿฅฆ๐‹๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง: EV/Sales: 0.6x, Intrinsic value based on stabilizing and increasing profitability is estimated at $11.68/share. So undervalued by ~80%

๐Ÿฅฆ๐…๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ ๐š๐ฆ๐ž: Led by CEO Carrie Wheeler, with founders owning ~12โ€“15%, the stock shows short-term bullishness

But the situation of low valuation exists because of the risks its carries of high debt, inventory markdowns, negative free cash flow and lack of clarity on when mortgage rates will come and real estate will bounce up.

๐Ÿ’๐…๐‚๐… ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž.  Q1 2025 FCF was -$283 million, worse than -$186 million in Q1 2024, due to increased inventory ($2.159 billion vs. $XXXXX billion).Negative FCF is expected to persist until profitability improves (potentially Q2 2025), with risks of dilution if financing is needed.

๐Ÿ’๐‡๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ƒ๐ž๐›๐ญ: Net debt of $XXXX billion ($2.53 billion total debt - $XXX million cash). Debt/Equity ratio: 3.92; Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA: ~8.9x, indicating high leverage.

๐Ÿ’๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค  XX% of homes held >120 days in Q4 2024, risking markdowns and holding costs.

Best of luck to the others for who the risk return works and they have more faith in the iBuying model. I will ride the trend until I smell a momentum fade

![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GwSEDi7XQAALWTB.jpg)

XXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1946826421084840029/c:line.svg)

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[Post Link](https://x.com/propulsionpoint/status/1946826421084840029)

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propulsionpoint Avatar PropulsionPoint Capital @propulsionpoint on x 1434 followers Created: 2025-07-20 06:56:03 UTC

$OPEN - I took some calls on the stock ( sold at XXX% gain). Now I own a 20k shares with~55% gain.

๐‘ป๐’‰๐’† ๐’ƒ๐’Š๐’ˆ ๐’’๐’–๐’†๐’”๐’•๐’Š๐’๐’ - ๐‘ฐ๐’” ๐’•๐’‰๐’Š๐’” ๐’‚ ๐’Ž๐’†๐’Ž๐’† ๐’”๐’•๐’๐’„๐’Œ ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’‘๐’–๐’Ž๐’‘๐’†๐’… ๐’๐’“ ๐’…๐’๐’†๐’” ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’“๐’–๐’ ๐’‰๐’‚๐’—๐’† ๐’‚๐’๐’š ๐’Ž๐’†๐’“๐’Š๐’• ๐’‚๐’๐’… ๐’๐’†๐’ˆ๐’Š๐’•๐’Š๐’Ž๐’‚๐’„๐’š?

My take: Its not all meme pump; there is some legitimacy to this move. Its mostly centered around improving business fundamentals + Macro tailwind in the form of residential real estate growth with reducing mortgage rates. The upcoming quarterly results will be key to the sustainability of this rally.

But I remain skeptical about the "ibuying" industry iBuyers are commercial house flippers who bridge finance their own assets and hold both the real estate asset and its debt financing on the same balance sheet. In the past few years their nightmare has come true which has accelerated their financial risk.

$OPEN is still some distance away from coming out of this mess. I also am not convinced of the value proposition to the sellers and they serve a small segment of the total residential market. I also don't believe that ML models are able to accurately predict and dynamically adjust to evaluate pricing instantly-that's the complexity of machine learning in real life

๐‘ซ๐’†๐’„๐’Š๐’”๐’Š๐’๐’: ๐‘ฐ ๐’‚๐’Ž ๐’ˆ๐’๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’•๐’ ๐’“๐’Š๐’…๐’† ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’•๐’“๐’†๐’๐’… ๐’‚๐’๐’… ๐’†๐’™๐’Š๐’• ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’”๐’•๐’๐’„๐’Œ ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’‡๐’๐’“๐’† ๐’“๐’†๐’”๐’–๐’๐’•๐’”. ๐‘ฐ ๐’‚๐’Ž ๐’‰๐’‚๐’‘๐’‘๐’š ๐’˜๐’Š๐’•๐’‰ ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’‡๐’Š๐’๐’‚๐’๐’„๐’Š๐’‚๐’ ๐’๐’–๐’•๐’„๐’๐’Ž๐’† ๐’•๐’‰๐’‚๐’• ๐’‰๐’‚๐’” ๐’‚๐’๐’“๐’†๐’‚๐’…๐’š ๐’•๐’‚๐’Œ๐’†๐’ ๐’‘๐’๐’‚๐’„๐’† ๐’˜๐’Š๐’•๐’‰ ๐’•๐’‰๐’Š๐’” ๐’ƒ๐’†๐’• ๐’–๐’๐’•๐’Š๐’ ๐’๐’๐’˜

Now my explanation:

A few things have happened which adds some legitimacy to the stock price appreciation

๐Ÿฅฆ๐๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐ž ๐›๐ž๐ญ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ง ๐ž๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž ๐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ฐ๐š๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐

Q1 2025: $XXXX billion, down XXXX% YoY from $XXXX billion in Q1 2024, but up X% QoQ from $XXX billion in Q4 2024.

Q2 2025 Guidance: $1.45โ€“$1.55 billion (midpoint $XXX billion), implying 26โ€“34% YoY growth from $XXXX billion in Q2 2024.

Full-Year 2025: Analysts project ~$5.5โ€“6 billion, a 7โ€“16% increase from 2024โ€™s $XXXX billion, driven by the asset-light marketplace model and recovering housing demand.

๐ŸฅฆRedfin and Zillow have exited the ibuying business. ๐’๐จ ๐Ž๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐๐จ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐š๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐ž๐ซ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐š๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐๐ž, capturing ~1% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market. Longer term outlook: Opendoor targets capturing 1โ€“2% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market, implying potential revenue of $16โ€“32 billion if successful.

๐Ÿฅฆ๐๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐Ÿ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐›๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ: Expected positive EBITDA ($10โ€“$20 million) signals a path to potentially sustained profitability.

Adjusted EBITDA: -$30 million (margin -2.6%), improved from -$50 million (-4.2%) in Q1 2024 and -$49 million (-4.5%) in Q4 2024.

๐Ÿฅฆ๐€ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐€๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ญ-๐‹๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐Œ๐š๐ซ๐ค๐ž๐ญ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐š๐œ๐ž with transition to a listing platform with agent partnerships. Currently X% revenues from listing fees, brokerage, title, and escrow services and growing.

๐Ÿฅฆ๐‹๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง: EV/Sales: 0.6x, Intrinsic value based on stabilizing and increasing profitability is estimated at $11.68/share. So undervalued by ~80%

๐Ÿฅฆ๐…๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ ๐š๐ฆ๐ž: Led by CEO Carrie Wheeler, with founders owning ~12โ€“15%, the stock shows short-term bullishness

But the situation of low valuation exists because of the risks its carries of high debt, inventory markdowns, negative free cash flow and lack of clarity on when mortgage rates will come and real estate will bounce up.

๐Ÿ’๐…๐‚๐… ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž. Q1 2025 FCF was -$283 million, worse than -$186 million in Q1 2024, due to increased inventory ($2.159 billion vs. $XXXXX billion).Negative FCF is expected to persist until profitability improves (potentially Q2 2025), with risks of dilution if financing is needed.

๐Ÿ’๐‡๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐ƒ๐ž๐›๐ญ: Net debt of $XXXX billion ($2.53 billion total debt - $XXX million cash). Debt/Equity ratio: 3.92; Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA: ~8.9x, indicating high leverage.

๐Ÿ’๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค XX% of homes held >120 days in Q4 2024, risking markdowns and holding costs.

Best of luck to the others for who the risk return works and they have more faith in the iBuying model. I will ride the trend until I smell a momentum fade

XXXXX engagements

Engagements Line Chart

Related Topics stocks $open

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