[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  PropulsionPoint Capital [@propulsionpoint](/creator/twitter/propulsionpoint) on x 1454 followers Created: 2025-07-20 06:56:03 UTC $OPEN - I took some calls on the stock ( sold at XXX% gain). Now I own a 20k shares with~55% gain. ๐ป๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ - ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐? My take: Its not all meme pump; there is some legitimacy to this move. Its mostly centered around improving business fundamentals + Macro tailwind in the form of residential real estate growth with reducing mortgage rates. The upcoming quarterly results will be key to the sustainability of this rally. But I remain skeptical about the "ibuying" industry iBuyers are commercial house flippers who bridge finance their own assets and hold both the real estate asset and its debt financing on the same balance sheet. In the past few years their nightmare has come true which has accelerated their financial risk. $OPEN is still some distance away from coming out of this mess. I also am not convinced of the value proposition to the sellers and they serve a small segment of the total residential market. I also don't believe that ML models are able to accurately predict and dynamically adjust to evaluate pricing instantly-that's the complexity of machine learning in real life ๐ซ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐: ๐ฐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐. ๐ฐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ Now my explanation: A few things have happened which adds some legitimacy to the stock price appreciation ๐ฅฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐ Q1 2025: $XXXX billion, down XXXX% YoY from $XXXX billion in Q1 2024, but up X% QoQ from $XXX billion in Q4 2024. Q2 2025 Guidance: $1.45โ$1.55 billion (midpoint $XXX billion), implying 26โ34% YoY growth from $XXXX billion in Q2 2024. Full-Year 2025: Analysts project ~$5.5โ6 billion, a 7โ16% increase from 2024โs $XXXX billion, driven by the asset-light marketplace model and recovering housing demand. ๐ฅฆRedfin and Zillow have exited the ibuying business. ๐๐จ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐, capturing ~1% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market. Longer term outlook: Opendoor targets capturing 1โ2% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market, implying potential revenue of $16โ32 billion if successful. ๐ฅฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ: Expected positive EBITDA ($10โ$20 million) signals a path to potentially sustained profitability. Adjusted EBITDA: -$30 million (margin -2.6%), improved from -$50 million (-4.2%) in Q1 2024 and -$49 million (-4.5%) in Q4 2024. ๐ฅฆ๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ-๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐๐ with transition to a listing platform with agent partnerships. Currently X% revenues from listing fees, brokerage, title, and escrow services and growing. ๐ฅฆ๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง: EV/Sales: 0.6x, Intrinsic value based on stabilizing and increasing profitability is estimated at $11.68/share. So undervalued by ~80% ๐ฅฆ๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐: Led by CEO Carrie Wheeler, with founders owning ~12โ15%, the stock shows short-term bullishness But the situation of low valuation exists because of the risks its carries of high debt, inventory markdowns, negative free cash flow and lack of clarity on when mortgage rates will come and real estate will bounce up. ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐. Q1 2025 FCF was -$283 million, worse than -$186 million in Q1 2024, due to increased inventory ($2.159 billion vs. $XXXXX billion).Negative FCF is expected to persist until profitability improves (potentially Q2 2025), with risks of dilution if financing is needed. ๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐๐ญ: Net debt of $XXXX billion ($2.53 billion total debt - $XXX million cash). Debt/Equity ratio: 3.92; Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA: ~8.9x, indicating high leverage. ๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค XX% of homes held >120 days in Q4 2024, risking markdowns and holding costs. Best of luck to the others for who the risk return works and they have more faith in the iBuying model. I will ride the trend until I smell a momentum fade  XXXXX engagements  **Related Topics** [stocks](/topic/stocks) [$open](/topic/$open) [Post Link](https://x.com/propulsionpoint/status/1946826421084840029)
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PropulsionPoint Capital @propulsionpoint on x 1454 followers
Created: 2025-07-20 06:56:03 UTC
$OPEN - I took some calls on the stock ( sold at XXX% gain). Now I own a 20k shares with~55% gain.
๐ป๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ - ๐ฐ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐?
My take: Its not all meme pump; there is some legitimacy to this move. Its mostly centered around improving business fundamentals + Macro tailwind in the form of residential real estate growth with reducing mortgage rates. The upcoming quarterly results will be key to the sustainability of this rally.
But I remain skeptical about the "ibuying" industry iBuyers are commercial house flippers who bridge finance their own assets and hold both the real estate asset and its debt financing on the same balance sheet. In the past few years their nightmare has come true which has accelerated their financial risk.
$OPEN is still some distance away from coming out of this mess. I also am not convinced of the value proposition to the sellers and they serve a small segment of the total residential market. I also don't believe that ML models are able to accurately predict and dynamically adjust to evaluate pricing instantly-that's the complexity of machine learning in real life
๐ซ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐: ๐ฐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐. ๐ฐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐
Now my explanation:
A few things have happened which adds some legitimacy to the stock price appreciation
๐ฅฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ง ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฐ๐๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐
Q1 2025: $XXXX billion, down XXXX% YoY from $XXXX billion in Q1 2024, but up X% QoQ from $XXX billion in Q4 2024.
Q2 2025 Guidance: $1.45โ$1.55 billion (midpoint $XXX billion), implying 26โ34% YoY growth from $XXXX billion in Q2 2024.
Full-Year 2025: Analysts project ~$5.5โ6 billion, a 7โ16% increase from 2024โs $XXXX billion, driven by the asset-light marketplace model and recovering housing demand.
๐ฅฆRedfin and Zillow have exited the ibuying business. ๐๐จ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐ฅ๐๐๐๐, capturing ~1% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market. Longer term outlook: Opendoor targets capturing 1โ2% of the $XXX trillion U.S. real estate market, implying potential revenue of $16โ32 billion if successful.
๐ฅฆ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ: Expected positive EBITDA ($10โ$20 million) signals a path to potentially sustained profitability.
Adjusted EBITDA: -$30 million (margin -2.6%), improved from -$50 million (-4.2%) in Q1 2024 and -$49 million (-4.5%) in Q4 2024.
๐ฅฆ๐ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ-๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐๐ with transition to a listing platform with agent partnerships. Currently X% revenues from listing fees, brokerage, title, and escrow services and growing.
๐ฅฆ๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง: EV/Sales: 0.6x, Intrinsic value based on stabilizing and increasing profitability is estimated at $11.68/share. So undervalued by ~80%
๐ฅฆ๐ ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ ๐จ๐จ๐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ ๐๐ฆ๐: Led by CEO Carrie Wheeler, with founders owning ~12โ15%, the stock shows short-term bullishness
But the situation of low valuation exists because of the risks its carries of high debt, inventory markdowns, negative free cash flow and lack of clarity on when mortgage rates will come and real estate will bounce up.
๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐. Q1 2025 FCF was -$283 million, worse than -$186 million in Q1 2024, due to increased inventory ($2.159 billion vs. $XXXXX billion).Negative FCF is expected to persist until profitability improves (potentially Q2 2025), with risks of dilution if financing is needed.
๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐๐ญ: Net debt of $XXXX billion ($2.53 billion total debt - $XXX million cash). Debt/Equity ratio: 3.92; Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA: ~8.9x, indicating high leverage.
๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค XX% of homes held >120 days in Q4 2024, risking markdowns and holding costs.
Best of luck to the others for who the risk return works and they have more faith in the iBuying model. I will ride the trend until I smell a momentum fade
XXXXX engagements
