[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  First Hill Capital [@FirstHillcap](/creator/twitter/FirstHillcap) on x XXX followers Created: 2025-07-19 22:29:31 UTC Today, I’m highlighting Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych, the operator of the Warsaw Stock Exchange—a small, overlooked company with steady returns and potential for outsized returns with good execution and possible acquisition. Foreign Public Stock exchanges - Local Monopolies My interest in small foreign stock exchanges began with my investment in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) in January of this year. That idea stemmed from a 2023 post on VIC, and since then, TASE’s stock has climbed XXX% from my purchase price, making it one of the top performers in my portfolio. This prompted some research into other cheap global exchanges. Foreign stock exchanges are like local monopolies because the only competition comes from LSE or NASDAQ who can’t offer the same services to smaller companies. These larger players can’t replicate the same localized services for smaller companies, leaving room for regional exchanges to thrive. In this case, scale does not work in their favor, unless they acquire the whole company, which is common, and a catalyst for performance which I touch on later. For larger companies, dual listings—where the home exchange remains primary—are common (e.g., Orlen [WSE:PKN] alongside its OTC listing [OTCPK:PSKO.F]). This dynamic makes regional exchanges like GPW critical to their markets and attractive investment opportunities. Here are the cheapest publicly traded stock exchanges worldwide: Image From $GPW December 2023 Investor presentation Some of the standouts on this list include TASE (own) and JSE and EXAE which I may like to own, but do not have access to through Interactive Brokers. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for more investment ideas to your inbox for free. The Warsaw Stock Exchange Every stock exchange makes money X main ways: Trading based fees which is directly proportional to market turnover and market services. For its size, the Polish market has really good turnover compared to the other European exchanges: While this is good, any intelligent investor knows that it’s impossible to predict GPW’s turnover for 2025, 2026, and onwards. By extension, this makes the predictability of earnings and FCF also impossible. The more predictable segment for stock exchanges are the market services it sells. This includes selling data, information and other essential products that are monopolies. The exchanges creates the market data, then packages it up and sells it back to the market. I believe this is how other exchanges have generated sustained year over year growth in earnings (Ex. TASE, JSE) while GPW’s earnings are lumpy. This chart shows the revenue breakdown of GPW with information services in green. This segment grew at XX% y/y last quarter. Based on looking at other small exchanges like TASE, EXAE, and JSE I think there is an opportunity for this to be a greater percentage of revenues and a growth driver. Despite this being somewhat of a speculative opinion (Can’t prove it wrong or right) the valuation supports a baseline return without this growth driver. There is no way to know for sure whether GPW will innovate and grow this segment over the next X years but here is what the management said about it: “Technology is the future of GPW. This is why the GPW Group’s New Strategy Directions cover intensive investment in new technologies, including the completion and development of the WATS trading platform and the implementation of solutions based on AI and blockchain. Following the implementation of WATS on the GPW Main Market, our goal will be to launch it on Catalyst and on the new All2All market for bonds. The data market is also key for us. We plan to implement a state-of-the-art platform to offer advanced financial and ESG data services that will deliver value to our clients,” said GPW Vice-President Sławomir Panasiuk. Overall, they gave an EBITA growth target of 8-12% for 2025- 2027. These market services businesses are extremely high quality. They are the only company that can provide these services, and as the Polish stock market develops, the demand for these services only grows. Potential Acquisition Target There are a couple of catalysts for growth in this name. Firstly, $GPW could be an acquisition target for a larger exchange. For example in 2018, Euronext placed a bid for the Norwegian stock exchange, Oslo Bors at a XXXX% premium to the stock price for $XXX million. Shortly after, NASDAQ made their own bid at a X% premium to Euronext’s offer. On the backdrop of an improving Polish economy, $GPW seems a likely runner up. Keep in mind that the State treasury owns XX% of the shares outstanding so keep this in mind when reviewing this probability. Final Thoughts GPW offers a rare combination of value and upside potential. While growth in trading fees remains uncertain, its predictable market services segment provides stability. With the added possibility of an acquisition premium, the stock presents an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity. Not financial advice. I do own, and I may buy or sell without notification. If you are reading this far, thank you. Please consider providing feedback on the post.  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First Hill Capital @FirstHillcap on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-19 22:29:31 UTC
Today, I’m highlighting Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych, the operator of the Warsaw Stock Exchange—a small, overlooked company with steady returns and potential for outsized returns with good execution and possible acquisition.
Foreign Public Stock exchanges - Local Monopolies My interest in small foreign stock exchanges began with my investment in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) in January of this year. That idea stemmed from a 2023 post on VIC, and since then, TASE’s stock has climbed XXX% from my purchase price, making it one of the top performers in my portfolio. This prompted some research into other cheap global exchanges.
Foreign stock exchanges are like local monopolies because the only competition comes from LSE or NASDAQ who can’t offer the same services to smaller companies. These larger players can’t replicate the same localized services for smaller companies, leaving room for regional exchanges to thrive.
In this case, scale does not work in their favor, unless they acquire the whole company, which is common, and a catalyst for performance which I touch on later.
For larger companies, dual listings—where the home exchange remains primary—are common (e.g., Orlen [WSE:PKN] alongside its OTC listing [OTCPK:PSKO.F]). This dynamic makes regional exchanges like GPW critical to their markets and attractive investment opportunities.
Here are the cheapest publicly traded stock exchanges worldwide:
Image From $GPW December 2023 Investor presentation Some of the standouts on this list include TASE (own) and JSE and EXAE which I may like to own, but do not have access to through Interactive Brokers.
Thanks for reading! Subscribe for more investment ideas to your inbox for free.
The Warsaw Stock Exchange Every stock exchange makes money X main ways: Trading based fees which is directly proportional to market turnover and market services. For its size, the Polish market has really good turnover compared to the other European exchanges:
While this is good, any intelligent investor knows that it’s impossible to predict GPW’s turnover for 2025, 2026, and onwards. By extension, this makes the predictability of earnings and FCF also impossible.
The more predictable segment for stock exchanges are the market services it sells. This includes selling data, information and other essential products that are monopolies. The exchanges creates the market data, then packages it up and sells it back to the market. I believe this is how other exchanges have generated sustained year over year growth in earnings (Ex. TASE, JSE) while GPW’s earnings are lumpy.
This chart shows the revenue breakdown of GPW with information services in green. This segment grew at XX% y/y last quarter.
Based on looking at other small exchanges like TASE, EXAE, and JSE I think there is an opportunity for this to be a greater percentage of revenues and a growth driver. Despite this being somewhat of a speculative opinion (Can’t prove it wrong or right) the valuation supports a baseline return without this growth driver.
There is no way to know for sure whether GPW will innovate and grow this segment over the next X years but here is what the management said about it:
“Technology is the future of GPW. This is why the GPW Group’s New Strategy Directions cover intensive investment in new technologies, including the completion and development of the WATS trading platform and the implementation of solutions based on AI and blockchain. Following the implementation of WATS on the GPW Main Market, our goal will be to launch it on Catalyst and on the new All2All market for bonds. The data market is also key for us. We plan to implement a state-of-the-art platform to offer advanced financial and ESG data services that will deliver value to our clients,” said GPW Vice-President Sławomir Panasiuk.
Overall, they gave an EBITA growth target of 8-12% for 2025- 2027. These market services businesses are extremely high quality. They are the only company that can provide these services, and as the Polish stock market develops, the demand for these services only grows.
Potential Acquisition Target There are a couple of catalysts for growth in this name. Firstly, $GPW could be an acquisition target for a larger exchange. For example in 2018, Euronext placed a bid for the Norwegian stock exchange, Oslo Bors at a XXXX% premium to the stock price for $XXX million. Shortly after, NASDAQ made their own bid at a X% premium to Euronext’s offer. On the backdrop of an improving Polish economy, $GPW seems a likely runner up.
Keep in mind that the State treasury owns XX% of the shares outstanding so keep this in mind when reviewing this probability.
Final Thoughts GPW offers a rare combination of value and upside potential. While growth in trading fees remains uncertain, its predictable market services segment provides stability. With the added possibility of an acquisition premium, the stock presents an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity.
Not financial advice. I do own, and I may buy or sell without notification.
If you are reading this far, thank you. Please consider providing feedback on the post.
XXXXX engagements
Related Topics tel aviv stock exchange investment exchanges stock exchanges exchanges acquisition