[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

![scaling01 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1825243643529027584.png) Lisan al Gaib [@scaling01](/creator/twitter/scaling01) on x 17.6K followers
Created: 2025-07-19 12:21:35 UTC

- Sama is already talking about AGI all the time, not long before he says it
- Q1 model fiesta: happened
- agents / computer use: literally yesterday
- o3 yes, o4 in the coming X weeks (GPT-5), o5 end of year
- o3 replication coming: Kimi-K2 reasoner or R2
- SWE-Bench XX% EOY: confident
- ARC-AGI-2 XX% by end of year: coin-flip
- Frontier Math 80%: unsure, but with Gold IMO it seems slightly closer
- 10+ million context length models: Llama-4 but not really


XXXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1946545953407902019/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[all the](/topic/all-the)
[claude](/topic/claude)
[meta](/topic/meta)
[open ai](/topic/open-ai)
[mentions](/topic/mentions)
[coins ai](/topic/coins-ai)
[imo](/topic/imo)
[happened](/topic/happened)

[Post Link](https://x.com/scaling01/status/1946545953407902019)