[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  MacroSpectrum [@MacroSpectrum](/creator/twitter/MacroSpectrum) on x XXX followers Created: 2025-07-19 01:32:34 UTC JAPAN UPPER HOUSE ELECTION PREVIEW: We have released a detailed report on the crucial Japan UH elections taking place on Sunday & what it implies for JGB yields & JPY : X. Japan is set to host its Upper House election on July 20, which would be a test of whether the LDP-Komeito coalition can maintain its majority after losing its Lower House majority. In big-picture terms, a loss of the LDP-Komeito coalition's majority would increase the risk of a change in prime minister or coalition membership and heighten political uncertainty. This would also make it even more difficult for the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. The outcome of the election will also heavily affect future fiscal policy as the opposition parties are arguing for consumption tax cuts and the ruling coalition is pushing instead for cash transfers (i.e. a one-time measure) to maintain fiscal discipline. X. Broadly there are X scenarios. A) the ruling coalition wins 48-49 seats. JGB yields fall, curve flattens & JPY appreciates to XXX levels. B) the coalition wins only 40-45 seats. The loss would be too large for Ishiba to stay in the job. The LDP and its coalition with Komei remain intact, but a new LDP president needs to be found. Slight uptick in JGB yields, curve shifts upwards & JPY remains in range of 147-149. C) the coalition wins less than XX seats — the disaster scenario, possibly triggering the effective bankruptcy of the LDP. JGB yields move sharply higher with more steepening & JPY likely testing XXX. In Scenario A, in which Ishiba remains as the party president and the PM, he could cut a trade deal with the US by the August X deadline. In scenarios B and C, the immediate question would be: will Ishiba resign as the PM and the LDP president? Our assessment is that in scenarios B and C, Ishiba may well choose to stay as the PM so he could cut a trade deal with Trump, while the LDP is preparing for the party presidential elections. X. Our impression is that Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, has a tentative plan to visit the US immediately after the UH elections next week. X. Our own view is that post election scenario will see LDP-Komeito coalition being joined by similar mindset CDP which is also a hawkish stance party on monetary policy. This will lead to LDP coalition continuing in government & Ishiba too continuing as PM. This should cool down JGB yields as well as JPY after the initial volatility. X. The election results come out at on Sunday itself at 8PM Tokyo time.  XXX engagements  **Related Topics** [japanese yen](/topic/japanese-yen) [japan](/topic/japan) [Post Link](https://x.com/MacroSpectrum/status/1946382624953635037)
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MacroSpectrum @MacroSpectrum on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-19 01:32:34 UTC
JAPAN UPPER HOUSE ELECTION PREVIEW: We have released a detailed report on the crucial Japan UH elections taking place on Sunday & what it implies for JGB yields & JPY :
X. Japan is set to host its Upper House election on July 20, which would be a test of whether the LDP-Komeito coalition can maintain its majority after losing its Lower House majority. In big-picture terms, a loss of the LDP-Komeito coalition's majority would increase the risk of a change in prime minister or coalition membership and heighten political uncertainty. This would also make it even more difficult for the BoJ to raise rates in the near future. The outcome of the election will also heavily affect future fiscal policy as the opposition parties are arguing for consumption tax cuts and the ruling coalition is pushing instead for cash transfers (i.e. a one-time measure) to maintain fiscal discipline.
X. Broadly there are X scenarios.
A) the ruling coalition wins 48-49 seats. JGB yields fall, curve flattens & JPY appreciates to XXX levels.
B) the coalition wins only 40-45 seats. The loss would be too large for Ishiba to stay in the job. The LDP and its coalition with Komei remain intact, but a new LDP president needs to be found. Slight uptick in JGB yields, curve shifts upwards & JPY remains in range of 147-149.
C) the coalition wins less than XX seats — the disaster scenario, possibly triggering the effective bankruptcy of the LDP. JGB yields move sharply higher with more steepening & JPY likely testing XXX.
In Scenario A, in which Ishiba remains as the party president and the PM, he could cut a trade deal with the US by the August X deadline. In scenarios B and C, the immediate question would be: will Ishiba resign as the PM and the LDP president?
Our assessment is that in scenarios B and C, Ishiba may well choose to stay as the PM so he could cut a trade deal with Trump, while the LDP is preparing for the party presidential elections.
X. Our impression is that Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, has a tentative plan to visit the US immediately after the UH elections next week.
X. Our own view is that post election scenario will see LDP-Komeito coalition being joined by similar mindset CDP which is also a hawkish stance party on monetary policy. This will lead to LDP coalition continuing in government & Ishiba too continuing as PM. This should cool down JGB yields as well as JPY after the initial volatility.
X. The election results come out at on Sunday itself at 8PM Tokyo time.
XXX engagements
Related Topics japanese yen japan