[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

![YuliaXAUUSD Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1837889258931343360.png) Yulia [@YuliaXAUUSD](/creator/twitter/YuliaXAUUSD) on x XXX followers
Created: 2025-07-19 01:21:26 UTC

🔥 A quick guide to foreign exchange fundamentals—see through the exchange rate game! #Foreign exchange #Macroeconomics #Trading strategy

🌍 Core triangle: the ultimate force driving exchange rates
X. Interest rate expectation gap
✅ Case:
- The Fed is "hawkish" (probability of rate cut in September↓) → US dollar soars
- The Bank of Japan remains on hold (YCC is not cancelled) → The yen falls to XXX
⚠️ Tracking tools: CME FedWatch, Overnight Index Swap (OIS)

X. Trade chain fault
✅ Case:
- Trump imposes XX% soybean tariffs on Brazil → Brazilian real plummets X%
- EU anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles → Euro production chain costs↑→ Euro under pressure
⚠️ Early warning signals: Customs import and export data, PMI new order sub-item

X. Geo-premium
✅ Case:
- Middle East conflict escalates → Swiss franc/yen safe-haven buying surges
- UK Scottish independence referendum motion → GBP volatility soars XXX%
⚠️ Monitoring tool: Geopolitical Risk Index

💡 Three tricks to crack the "data fog"

X. Identify "real core data"

- Non-farm employment → Keep a close eye on average hourly wage + labor participation rate (don't be fooled by the headline!)

- Inflation data → Lock in core PCE month-on-month (Fed's real anchor)

X. Policy statement decoding

- Central bank "dovish rate hike" = bad news for currency (e.g. ECB "rate hike but hint at end point" in 2024)

- "Hawkish standstill" = secretly good news (e.g. Bank of Japan maintains interest rate in 2025 but warns of intervention)

X. Carry trade defusing guide

- Short high-debt currencies (Japanese yen, Swiss franc) + Long high-interest currencies (Mexican peso, Indian rupee)

- Fatal risk: sudden black swan (such as Trump's tariff threat) → X% reversal in one day!

⚠️ The biggest gray rhino in 2025
- Weaponization of the US dollar 2.0: Trump's threat of "100% comprehensive tariffs" → Global acceleration of de-dollarization (RMB settlement ratio ↑ to 28%)
- Politicization of the central bank: Walsh competes for the chairman of the Federal Reserve → Independence is shaken → The credit premium of the US dollar collapses
- Energy chain breaks: US and Russian sanctions are escalated → Europe is forced to buy high-priced LNG → The EUR/GBP ratio breaks XXXX

🔥 Actual combat deduction:
👉 If today's US retail sales > XXX% + dovish minutes of the Bank of England = short GBP/USD (target 1.2800)
👉 If the ceasefire in the Middle East breaks down + Switzerland's trade surplus expands = long USD/CHF (hedge gold longs)

> Take action now:
> X. Open TradingView and load the "Interest Rate Probability Heat Map" (attached link↓)
> X. Leave a comment in the comment area "Most confusing currency pair" and win X copies of "Central Bank Decision-making Internal Reference Template"!

#Foreign Exchange #US Dollar #Trader #Investment


XXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1946379821434700196/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[japan](/topic/japan)
[bank of](/topic/bank-of)
[money](/topic/money)
[united states dollar](/topic/united-states-dollar)
[fed](/topic/fed)
[rates](/topic/rates)
[fed rate](/topic/fed-rate)
[federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve)

[Post Link](https://x.com/YuliaXAUUSD/status/1946379821434700196)