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![ml_previews Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1929498302267170816.png) ML Previews [@ml_previews](/creator/twitter/ml_previews) on x 1029 followers
Created: 2025-07-18 23:21:54 UTC

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🎾 Ugo Carabelli vs. De Jong – What to Expect
The Nordea Open semifinals deliver a clash of contrasting journeys as Argentine resilience meets Dutch breakthrough spirit on the clay courts of Bastad, with both players seeking their first ATP Tour final appearance.
⸻
Ugo Carabelli – The Resilient Argentine
Camilo Ugo Carabelli enters this semifinal riding a powerful wave of momentum that has seen him navigate through challenging opponents with impressive precision. The fifth seed’s path to the semifinals has been marked by straight-set victories, dismantling Cristian Garin with a commanding display before defeating dangerous qualifier Filip Misolic in the quarterfinals. His triumph over Misolic showcased his mental fortitude, breaking serve six times and demonstrating exceptional return play to win convincingly. The Argentine’s clay court prowess has been evident throughout his Bastad campaign, reaching his third ATP semifinal of the season after earlier appearances at the Rio Open and Chile Open. His recent form represents a significant turnaround from a difficult period, with the world number XX showing renewed confidence and tactical awareness on his preferred surface. The Buenos Aires native has proven particularly effective at converting crucial break points, a skill that has been instrumental in his progression through the draw.
⸻
De Jong – The Dutch Giant-Killer
Jesper de Jong arrives at his first ATP semifinal with genuine giant-killing credentials after his stunning comeback victory over compatriot Tallon Griekspoor, the tournament’s second seed. The 25-year-old Dutchman demonstrated remarkable resilience, overcoming a set and break deficit to triumph in a thrilling three-set encounter that lasted two hours and forty minutes. His quarterfinal victory marked the second time this season he has defeated Griekspoor, showcasing his ability to raise his level against higher-ranked opponents. De Jong’s breakthrough year has been highlighted by his first ATP semifinal appearance in Montpellier, where he defeated multiple seeded players including Flavio Cobolli and Griekspoor. His Masters debut at the Italian Open saw him record his first Masters win, establishing himself as a legitimate threat on the tour.
⸻
So… What Happens?
The head-to-head record between these players stands perfectly balanced at 3-3, with their most recent encounter occurring at the Villa Maria Challenger final in October, where Ugo Carabelli prevailed in a thrilling three-set battle. Their rivalry has been characterized by closely contested matches, with both players winning exactly seven sets across their six meetings. Notably, Ugo Carabelli holds a 3-2 advantage on clay courts, the surface that could prove decisive in this semifinal encounter. The Argentine will look to utilize his superior clay court experience and his current form to control the baseline exchanges, while De Jong will attempt to replicate the aggressive, fearless approach that has served him so well throughout the tournament. The key battle will be Ugo Carabelli’s proven clay court ability and recent momentum against De Jong’s breakthrough confidence and nothing-to-lose mentality that has already claimed one seeded scalp in Griekspoor.
⸻
🔮 Prediction: Ugo Carabelli to win – His superior clay court record in their head-to-head meetings and current form give him the edge, though De Jong’s breakthrough momentum makes this genuinely competitive.
Upset watch: De Jong’s stunning victory over Griekspoor and his ability to perform under pressure make him genuinely dangerous. If he can maintain the aggressive baseline style that troubled the second seed and capitalize on any early nerves from Ugo Carabelli, the Dutchman could reach his first ATP final.
⸻
đź’¸ Betting thoughts (safer picks):
âś… Over XXXX total games:
âś… De Jong handicap +4.5 games:
🟨 Ugo Carabelli to win in X sets:


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ml_previews Avatar ML Previews @ml_previews on x 1029 followers Created: 2025-07-18 23:21:54 UTC

Like/Retweet, it helps a lot 🙏🏼 🎾 Ugo Carabelli vs. De Jong – What to Expect The Nordea Open semifinals deliver a clash of contrasting journeys as Argentine resilience meets Dutch breakthrough spirit on the clay courts of Bastad, with both players seeking their first ATP Tour final appearance. ⸻ Ugo Carabelli – The Resilient Argentine Camilo Ugo Carabelli enters this semifinal riding a powerful wave of momentum that has seen him navigate through challenging opponents with impressive precision. The fifth seed’s path to the semifinals has been marked by straight-set victories, dismantling Cristian Garin with a commanding display before defeating dangerous qualifier Filip Misolic in the quarterfinals. His triumph over Misolic showcased his mental fortitude, breaking serve six times and demonstrating exceptional return play to win convincingly. The Argentine’s clay court prowess has been evident throughout his Bastad campaign, reaching his third ATP semifinal of the season after earlier appearances at the Rio Open and Chile Open. His recent form represents a significant turnaround from a difficult period, with the world number XX showing renewed confidence and tactical awareness on his preferred surface. The Buenos Aires native has proven particularly effective at converting crucial break points, a skill that has been instrumental in his progression through the draw. ⸻ De Jong – The Dutch Giant-Killer Jesper de Jong arrives at his first ATP semifinal with genuine giant-killing credentials after his stunning comeback victory over compatriot Tallon Griekspoor, the tournament’s second seed. The 25-year-old Dutchman demonstrated remarkable resilience, overcoming a set and break deficit to triumph in a thrilling three-set encounter that lasted two hours and forty minutes. His quarterfinal victory marked the second time this season he has defeated Griekspoor, showcasing his ability to raise his level against higher-ranked opponents. De Jong’s breakthrough year has been highlighted by his first ATP semifinal appearance in Montpellier, where he defeated multiple seeded players including Flavio Cobolli and Griekspoor. His Masters debut at the Italian Open saw him record his first Masters win, establishing himself as a legitimate threat on the tour. ⸻ So… What Happens? The head-to-head record between these players stands perfectly balanced at 3-3, with their most recent encounter occurring at the Villa Maria Challenger final in October, where Ugo Carabelli prevailed in a thrilling three-set battle. Their rivalry has been characterized by closely contested matches, with both players winning exactly seven sets across their six meetings. Notably, Ugo Carabelli holds a 3-2 advantage on clay courts, the surface that could prove decisive in this semifinal encounter. The Argentine will look to utilize his superior clay court experience and his current form to control the baseline exchanges, while De Jong will attempt to replicate the aggressive, fearless approach that has served him so well throughout the tournament. The key battle will be Ugo Carabelli’s proven clay court ability and recent momentum against De Jong’s breakthrough confidence and nothing-to-lose mentality that has already claimed one seeded scalp in Griekspoor. ⸻ 🔮 Prediction: Ugo Carabelli to win – His superior clay court record in their head-to-head meetings and current form give him the edge, though De Jong’s breakthrough momentum makes this genuinely competitive. Upset watch: De Jong’s stunning victory over Griekspoor and his ability to perform under pressure make him genuinely dangerous. If he can maintain the aggressive baseline style that troubled the second seed and capitalize on any early nerves from Ugo Carabelli, the Dutchman could reach his first ATP final. ⸻ 💸 Betting thoughts (safer picks): ✅ Over XXXX total games: ✅ De Jong handicap +4.5 games: 🟨 Ugo Carabelli to win in X sets:

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