[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]

![AllVentured Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:24/cr:twitter::1166790635556196353.png) AllThingsVentured [@AllVentured](/creator/twitter/AllVentured) on x 11.3K followers
Created: 2025-07-18 20:42:16 UTC

Seems like a uniquely asymmetric time to buy puts.  

If economy stays resilient, bond yields are likely to go higher through a level that has caused problems for stocks in the past as inflation expectations are picking up, TGA needs to be refilled without the help of the RRP this time, and Japan can no longer absorb bond supply as its own yields are mooning in response to its own inflation problems.

If economy rolls over, stocks priced for perfection likely rerate lower.

And worst case, economy rolls over and the long end blows out in anticipation of even more bond supply.  I added exceptionally cheap $HYG oct $XX puts this week as I think this 3rd possibility is massively underpriced.




XXXXX engagements

![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/p:tweet::1946309567341572356/c:line.svg)

**Related Topics**
[japan](/topic/japan)
[inflation](/topic/inflation)
[stocks](/topic/stocks)
[fixed income](/topic/fixed-income)

[Post Link](https://x.com/AllVentured/status/1946309567341572356)