[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]  Paulie1776 ⓋET 🇺🇸 [@SPAULIE76](/creator/twitter/SPAULIE76) on x 1848 followers Created: 2025-07-18 15:55:10 UTC Sahm Rule: The Sahm Rule, which signals a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises XXX% above its 12-month low, has been triggered recently due to a rising unemployment rate. This is a notable recession indicator, though it’s not infallible, as it can be influenced by temporary factors like labor force participation changes. Yield Curve Inversion: As of July 2025, the 10-year to 2-year Treasury yield spread is deeply inverted at -XX basis points, with the 2-year yield at XXXX% and the 10-year at 4.16%. The 10-year to 3-month spread also inverted again in February 2025, a signal the Federal Reserve considers highly reliable for predicting recessions within XX months. Inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s, though false positives (e.g., 1966, 1998) exist. XX engagements  **Related Topics** [yield curve](/topic/yield-curve) [gdp growth](/topic/gdp-growth) [signals](/topic/signals) [Post Link](https://x.com/SPAULIE76/status/1946237317464694998)
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Paulie1776 ⓋET 🇺🇸 @SPAULIE76 on x 1848 followers
Created: 2025-07-18 15:55:10 UTC
Sahm Rule: The Sahm Rule, which signals a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises XXX% above its 12-month low, has been triggered recently due to a rising unemployment rate. This is a notable recession indicator, though it’s not infallible, as it can be influenced by temporary factors like labor force participation changes.
Yield Curve Inversion: As of July 2025, the 10-year to 2-year Treasury yield spread is deeply inverted at -XX basis points, with the 2-year yield at XXXX% and the 10-year at 4.16%. The 10-year to 3-month spread also inverted again in February 2025, a signal the Federal Reserve considers highly reliable for predicting recessions within XX months. Inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s, though false positives (e.g., 1966, 1998) exist.
XX engagements
Related Topics yield curve gdp growth signals